Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Tracking North Carolina Out of the Recession Richard Kaglic November 9, 2010 2 The Outlook (Last Year) • Low trajectory climb out of the trough • Consumers constrained by rising joblessness, need to rebuild the balance sheet • Investment hindered by weak demand, capacity excesses, credit conditions • Global economy is weak, but improving • What to look for: • Production to pick up, survey results, particularly PMIs • Banks start lending again (risk spreads, lending surveys) • Firms stop firing and start hiring (jobless claims) 3 ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS: Sep. Oct. Sep. Oct. Purchasing Managers Index 54.4 56.9 NonManufacturing Index 53.2 54.3 Production 56.5 62.7 Business Activity 52.8 58.4 New Orders 51.1 58.9 New Orders 54.9 56.7 Employment 56.5 57.7 Employment 50.2 50.9 Supplier Deliveries 52.3 51.2 Supplier Deliveries 55.0 51.0 Inventories 55.6 53.9 Inventories 47.0 47.5 Prices 70.5 71.0 Prices 60.1 68.3 Backlog of Orders 46.5 46.0 Backlog of Orders 48.0 52.0 New Export Orders 54.5 60.5 New Export Orders 58.0 55.5 Imports 56.5 51.5 Imports 53.0 54.0 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics 4 Senior Loan Officer Survey Source: Board of Governors 5 Initial Jobless Claims (000s, 4-wk MA 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 6 Carolinas Business Activity Index Index > 0 indicates expansion Index Assessment of Current Business Activity 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Nation Oct-09 Region Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Company Source: FRB Richmond 7 Unemployment Rates Percent 14.0 14.0 Sep. US 12.0 12.0 NC 10.0 10.0 SC 8.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics 8 Payroll Employment Index, December 2007 = 100 102 102 NC 100 100 SC 98 98 US 96 96 Sep. 94 94 92 92 90 90 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics 10 9 Employment Concentration Location Quotients, U.S. average = 1.0 Construction Mfg Trade Information Financial Svcs SC Bus svcs NC Ed/health svcs Leisure/hosp Other svcs Govt 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics 1.40 10 Payroll Employment, North Carolina Index, recession trough = 1.00 1.20 1.20 Mar-75 Nov-82 1.15 1.15 Mar-91 1.10 1.10 Nov-01 Jul-09 1.05 1.05 1.00 1.00 0.95 0.95 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 Sources: BLS/Haver Analytics 24 11 Carolinas Business Expectations Index Index > 0 indicates expansion Index Assessment of Activity Six Months f rom Now 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Nation Jul-09 Oct-09 Region Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Company Source: FRB Richmond 12 Real Gross Domestic Product 2009 Q3 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.6 5.0 3.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 0.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 -1.7 -12.4 4.2 -1.4 -29.2 14.6 7.8 -17.8 20.4 17.2 -0.5 24.8 9.7 3.9 12.0 Residential Fixed Investment 10.6 -0.8 -12.3 25.7 -29.1 Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services 12.2 21.9 24.4 4.9 11.4 11.2 9.1 33.5 5.0 17.4 1.6 -1.4 -1.6 3.9 3.4 1.8 0.2 1.3 4.3 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Structures Equipment & Software Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories -128.2 -36.7 Net Exports of Goods & Services -390.8 -330.1 44.1 68.8 115.5 -338.4 -449.0 -514.9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 13 Real Gross Domestic Product 2009 Q3 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.6 5.0 3.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 0.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 -1.7 -12.4 4.2 -1.4 -29.2 14.6 7.8 -17.8 20.4 17.2 -0.5 24.8 9.7 3.9 12.0 Residential Fixed Investment 10.6 -0.8 -12.3 25.7 -29.1 Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services 12.2 21.9 24.4 4.9 11.4 11.2 9.1 33.5 5.0 17.4 1.6 -1.4 -1.6 3.9 3.4 1.8 0.2 1.3 4.3 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Structures Equipment & Software Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories -128.2 -36.7 Net Exports of Goods & Services -390.8 -330.1 44.1 68.8 115.5 -338.4 -449.0 -514.9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 14 Nonfarm Payroll Employment 500 Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons 500 400 400 300 300 Oct. 200 200 100 100 0 0 -100 -100 -200 -200 -300 -300 Monthly Change Oct. 151 Sep. -41 Aug. -1 July -66 June -175 -400 -500 -600 -700 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 -800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 15 Alternative Measures of Unemployment Percent 18.0 18.0 Official 16.0 16.0 Plus marginally attached 14.0 14.0 Plus part time 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 28 Alternative Measures of Unemployment Percent 20 15 US 10 NC SC 5 0 2007 2008 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 28 Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Aug. 2.3 0.8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Core (excludes Food* and Energy) Consumer Price Indexes Aug. 3.1 0.6 Sep. 1.2 0.0 YoY % 1.1 0.8 [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Aug. 4.8 0.7 0.7 32.0 Finished Goods Core (excludes Food and Energy) Core Intermediate Goods Crude Crude Goods Goods Spot Commodity Price Index YoY % 1.4 1.2 [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: All Items Core (excludes Food and Energy) Producer Price Indexes Sep. 1.0 0.3 Sep. 5.5 1.4 2.7 -5.6 YoY % 4.0 1.5 3.9 20.2 [Percent Change from Previous Month]: Sep. 5.4 CRB Spot Commodity Price Index Oct. 3.3 YoY % 28.7 Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics 18 Miscellaneous: $154 Source: Board of Governors 19 Federal Reserve System Assets 2600 2400 $, Billions TALF: $32 2200 Total: $2,346 Term ABS Lending Facility (TALF): $28 Total: $2,342 AIG & Bear Stearns: $113 Miscellaneous: $154 AIG & Bear Stearns: $114 Agency MBS: $1,092 Agency MBS: $1,051 Miscellaneous: $159 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Agency Debt: $154 Agency Debt: $150 600 400 Treasury Securities: $801 Treasury Securities: $840 200 0 9/22/2010 11/3/2010 Notes: Discount Window lending and Foreign Currency Swaps are less than $1 billion as of 9/22 and 11/03. Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics 20 www.richmondfed.org 21 [email protected] 22