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지속되는 미국 적자: 정치체제의 문제
David Webber
Visiting Professor, Ewha Womans University
Department of Political Science
University of Missouri
America’s Enduring Deficit Problem:
The Political System is the Problem
David Webber
Visiting Professor, Ewha Womans University
Department of Political Science
University of Missouri
Three graphs that haunt me
1. U.S. Federal Budget Gap
2. OECD Countries Debt
OECD Countries Cumulative Debt as a
Percentage of GDP
Percentage of GDP (%)
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 94 (database)
2013
2014
2015
3. Korea’s growing debt
SOUTH KOREA GOVERNMENT DEBT TO GDP
40
Percentage of GDP(%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com/
Ministry of Strategy and Finance, South Korea
10
11
12
13
My Primary Point
Most of our public problems are governance
problems.
We know how to get to the moon and how to
cure many diseases but we do not know how to
design a durable, effective, equitable political system t
hat yields sustainable policies.
My secondary point
Economists and political scientists have NOT
helped solve this problem.
My background
My specialty is American public policy,
especially
-economic,
-education, and
-environmental policies.
My training:
1. Mainstream economics
-rational actors, pro free market.
2. American political institutions
-rational individual behavior.
A Quick List of Policy Problems
Budget Deficit—persistent since 1969 in US
2. Economic stagnation—high unemployment
3. Health Care –high costs, questionable impact
4. Economic Inequality—increasing
5. Financial regulation and pension liability
6. K-12 Education—low performance
7. Higher education—more costly, less accessible
8. Infrastructure –poor condition
9. Military responsibility and preparation
10. Global climate change
1.
Underlying all these problems is
our unquestioned belief
that we are a great democracy
“A government of the people,
by the people,
and for the people.”
President Abraham Lincoln’s
Gettysburg Address, November 19,1863.
Much of U.S. political history is about
individual liberty and freedom
NOT how to make better policy decisions.
Compare
1. USA’s “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness”
with
2. Canada’s “peace, order and good government.”
Underlying cause is
“procedural democracy.”
Focus is on parts of the political process with little attention
given to soundness of policy outcomes.
Specific instances of dominance of “procedural democracy.”
1. Citizen voting is central focus of participation.
2. Elected officials fill the role they hold—not “public
good.”
3. Time horizon is next budget or next bill or next year.
4. Getting enough votes is the goal.
Flaws in the American democratic
process.
1. Don’t need a majority. . . to rule.
2. Concentrated benefits recipients usually always beat unorganized c
ost bearers.
3. Even informed voters don’t know who to hold accountable.
The majority rules—right?
Suppose there are five city council districts with five voters each.
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
Voters
XXXXX
XXXXX
XXXXX
XXXXX
XXXXX
So a majority is 25/2 or 12.5 so 13
Wrong, you only need 9 out of 25
You only need to get the support of three voters to win a district.
District 1
District 2
District 3
XXX
XXX
XXX
XX
XX
XX
Don’t need to win any of Districts 4 and 5
District 4
District 5
XXXXX
XXXXX
So NINE voters out of 25 (or 36 percent) will give you majority rule
on the city council (this happens often).
Source: James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock,
THE CALCULUS OF CONSENT
Published in 1962.
Quick Review of Recent U.S Events
1.
Federal Budget Outlays greater than Revenues for all but four
years since 1969 (as seen in Table at the beginning).
2.
Federal government shutdown October 2013.
3.
Financial Meltdown September 2008.
4.
Large military and security operations Post 9/11.
5.
Fundamental social change about debt and savings
over past 40-50 years (1960s is a good landmark both for
government debt and increased public consumption).
Single Most Important Fact
Since 1969
Average Federal Spending 21% of GDP
Average Federal Taxing 18 % of GDP
Average debt each year 3 % of GDP
Result of These U.S. Events and
Practices
1.
2.
3.
Slow Economic Growth
High unemployment
Continued large public deficits, some stabilizing of
private debt.
But there have been benefits, too
1.
2.
3.
4.
International security
Less pollution, safer roads
More diversity in education
Increased life expectancy –but not the best in the world.
Large debt is bad;
uncontrolled debt is worse
1.
Intergenerational aspect (but previous debt funded roads,
schools, and freedom).
2. Limits options, a specific concern is the impact on
foreign policy of foreign-held debt.
3.
Crowding out of private investment and other worthy
projects.
Keynesian economic theory prescribed
“balancing the budget over the length of the business cycle.”
My explanation for how we got here
Four different perspectives, all going the same
directions.
1. Budget deficit as a tragedy of the commons
Garret Hardin “The Tragedy of the Commons,” SCIENCE
1968.
“freedom in the commons brings ruin to all.’
2. Keynes was a bad political scientist: democracies can easily
run deficits in bad times, but have trouble running
surpluses in good times.
Buchanan and Wagner, DEMOCRACY IN DEFICIT, 1977.
3. Elinor Ostrom,
GOVERNING THE COMMONS, 1990,
argues trust and communication are the key.
4. Mancur
Olson,
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF NATIONS, 1982,
argues growth of special interests clog the policy process.
Lots of plans
 More than 20 federal budget deficit reduction plans.
Simpson-Bowles (National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform) is probably the best known.
It was a bipartisan commission proposing $4 trillion of
revenue increases and expenditure cuts last December 2010.
 Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) may be the single most
nfluential member of Congress on deficit reduction.
His BACK IN BLACK proposal lists $9 trillion of
reductions.
i
Flaws in the U.S. Political System
That Caused the National Debt
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Two senators per state—this is a huge distortion of preferences. Seventeen per
cent of population reside in 26 smallest states; 11 percent in 21 smallest states.
Presidential nominating process and Electoral College
Legislative redistricting in the states have eliminated
“competitive districts.”
Government-Industrial complex.
Increased use of the filibuster in Senate
(60 votes required to do about anything).
6
Increased polarization in politics
(“No tax increase pledges”, 24/7 news, loss of civility).
What Can Be Done
1.
Public interested citizen education.
http://www.federalbudgetchallenge.org/pages/overview
2. Internationally-imposed financial standards.
3. Inter-state compacts on debt reduction similar
to environmental efforts or those leading to the uniform commercial
code.
What I expect
We will muddle along resulting in economic
transitions,
1.changed home ownership,
2 decaying infrastructure,
3. changed families,
4. and more social problems.
Fundamental constitutional change is not possible
in the U.S.
We need Constitution 2.0.
Two political scientists I suggest
 Daniel A. Bell,
political theorist at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
 Doh Chull Shin,
former University of Missouri colleague,
now at University of California, Irvine.
Daniel A. Bell
director of the Center for
International and Comparative Political
Philosophy
at Tsinghua University in Beijing
Choosing Confucianism:
Departing from the Liberal
Framework
The End
Is Democracy Possible?
Bruce Gilley “Is Democracy Possible?” JOURNAL OF DEMOCRACY 2009
Democracy is NOT Possible because
CRITICS ON THE LEFT
 Propaganda
 Power difference between elites and masses
 Social exclusion
 Agenda control
CRITICS ON THE RIGHT
 Citizen stupidity
 Citizen ignorance
 Aggregation problems
So replace with
Mass Party Rule
Worker rule
Direct citizen rule
Markets
Expert guardians
Weighted voting
To be sure there are lots of causes to
U.S. current problems
1. Poorly performing education system
2. More suburbanization with public needs
3. Increased health care costs
4. Aging population
5. Aging sewer and road infrastructure will create
future demands on government spending.
6. Globalization