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Figure 12.1 American house prices; 12-month moving average, 1987 – 2012 300,000 USA: median price of new homes and ratio median price / median income 6 median house price (left scale) 5 ratio median price 200,000 median house price divided by median income level (right scale) 100,000 0 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 year 4 3 2012 Source: calculations based on data from US Census Bureau; median new house price in US dollars (not inflation adjusted, 12-month moving average); monthly median income constructed from annual data; note that the righthand scale starts at three rather than zero. Figure 12.2 Stock market index; monthly data, 1987 – August 2012 Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index Internet bubble 60% decline Great Recession 57% decline 0 1987 1992 1997 2002 Source: OECD Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index, monthly data 2007 March 2009 June 2007 March 2003 March 2000 1 2012 Figure 12.3 Maximum loans by Federal Reserve to selected banks ($ bn), 2008-2009 0 20 40 60 80 100 Morgan Stanley Citigroup Bank of America Royal Bank of Scotland State Street Corp UBS Goldman Sachs JP Morgan Chase Deutsche Bank Barclays Source: van Marrewijk (2012); indicated are the largest loans to individual banks in billion US $; these occur at different dates, but all are either in 2008 or in 2009. Figure 12.4 Great Recession: real world trade flows (index), 1970 – July 2012 Real world trade flows; constant 2000 US dollar, index (2000 = 100) Great Recession 20.1% decline 160 120 6.8% decline 80 40 0.3% decline 2.8% decline 1 0 1970 1975 annual monthly data data 2 1980 4 3 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: calculations based on World Development Indicators online (world exports of goods and services in constant 2000 US dollar; 1970-1991, annual data) and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (volume of world merchandise exports; Jan 1991 – July 2012, monthly data); index (2000=100). Figure 12.5 Trade volumes and the Great Recession; selected areas, 2004 – July 2012 a. Import volume advanced economies b. Import volume emerging markets 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100) 120 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100) 120 Asia Latin America Japan 100 100 Euro area 80 Central + East Europe Africa + Middle East 80 2008-8 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008-3 2008-10 2008-3 2007-2 USA 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data (volume of exports and imports); see the main text for details; pre-2009 peaks indicated (square, circle, triangle). Figure 12.5 Trade volumes and the Great Recession; selected areas, 2004 – July 2012 c. Export volume advanced economies d. Export volume emerging markets 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100) 5-month moving av. (ind indices; pre-2009 peak=100) 120 120 USA 100 Asia Latin America 100 Africa + Middle East Euro area Central + East Europe 80 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008-9 60 2008-2 2008-6 2008-3 Japan 60 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data (volume of exports and imports); see the main text for details; pre-2009 peaks indicated (square, circle, triangle). Figure 12.6 Surprise! OECD’s changing world trade growth projections for 2009 OECD world trade growth projections for 2009 (% increase) 10 5 8.1 8.2 6.6 8.2 6.9 8.2 7.0 1.3 1.9 2.5 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 7.1 3.8 1.1 0 -5 -3.9 -10 -9.2 WEO 2007/2 -15 WEO 2008/1 -20 WEO 2008/2 WEO 2009/1 -25 -30 -35 Quarter 4 -32.1 Source: van Marrewijk (2012). Figure 12.7 Industrial production; monthly growth rates, 2007 – July 2012 a. Industrial production advanced economies; growth rate, monthly data 40 31.95 30 Japan 20 10 0 2007 -10 2008 2009 2010 -40 2012 USA Euro area earthquake and tsunami -20 -30 2011 April 2008 -34.27 Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data; growth rate of industrial production in this month relative to the same month one year ago (%). 2013 Figure 12.7 Industrial production; monthly growth rates, 2007 – July 2012 b. Industrial production emerging markets; growth rate, monthly data 25 21.74 20 Asia 15 10 5 0 2007 -5 Africa & ME 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Latin 2013 America -10 -15 -17.12 C&E Europe -20 Source: calculations based on CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis data; growth rate of industrial production in this month relative to the same month one year ago (%). Figure 12.8 GDP per capita (PPP); countries with growth and decline (%), 2000-2011 GDP per capita PPP; countries with growth and decline (%), 2000-2011 100 90 80 70 countries with growth 60 50 40 30 20 10 countries with decline 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: author’s calculations based on data from World Development Indicators online; sample of 171 countries; GDP per capita PPP in constant 2005 international $; countries with growth have per capita income this year larger than previous year Figure 12.9 USA retail and manufacturing sales; index (1992=100), 1992 – Aug 2012 USA retail and manufacturing sales; index, 1992 = 100 300 250 retail sales 200 150 manufacturing sales 100 50 0 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: based on data from US Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted sales, monthly ($ mn) 2013 Figure 12.10 USA inventory/sales ratio; index (period average = 100), 2002 – Jul 2012 USA inventories / sales ratio; index relative to period average, monthly data 140 117.39 120 period average 100 inventories / sales ratio index 80 60 40 20 0 2002 January 2009 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: based on data from US Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted inventory/sales ratio for manufacturing and trade, monthly data; index relative to period average Figure 12.11 Government net lending / borrowing (% of GDP), 2012-2017 General government net lending / borrowing (% of GDP) 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 -2 Euro area -4 -6 Japan -6.4 -8 -10 -10.4 -12 USA -14 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database -13.0 realization prediction Figure 12.12 Expected general government gross debt (% of GDP), 2012 General government gross debt (% of GDP), 2012 235.8 Japan Greece 153.2 Italy 123.4 106.6 USA Belgium 99.1 Euro area 90.0 France 89.0 UK 88.4 Canada 84.7 Spain 79.0 Germany 78.9 Austria 73.9 Netherlands 70.1 67.6 India Brazil 65.1 Philippines 40.1 Australia 24.0 Indonesia 23.2 China 22.0 0 50 100 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database 150 200 250 Figure 12.13 Emerging markets; 20 largest foreign exchange reserves, mid 2011 ($bn) Emerging markets; 20 largest foreign exchange reserves, mid 2011 (US $ bn) China 3198 Saudi Arabia 508 Russia 484 Taiwan 401 Brazil 334 S Korea 311 India 288 Hong Kong 279 Singapore 249 Thailand Source: based on The Economist (2011b). 179 Malaysia 134 Mexico 129 Indonesia 119 Poland 101 Turkey 94 Israel 78 Philippines 63 Hungary 54 Argentina 49 Peru 46 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Figure 12.14 Total factor productivity index; 1989 = 100, 1989-2011 TFP index Total Factor Productivity; index 1989 = 100, 1989-2011 Finland 124 123 Germany 120 Netherlands 111 France 100 Italy Spain 100 97 90 Greece 80 1989 1995 2001 2007 Source: author’s calculations based on Conference Board Total Economy Database year 87 2013 Figure 12.15 Sovereign ratings in Europe since 2005; long-term foreign currency Sovereign ratings in Europe since 2005; long-term foreign currency Austria, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK 24 Spain Italy 20 Ireland 16 Greece Portugal 12 8 4 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: based on data from Fitch Ratings; ratings transformed to a scale from 0 (D) to 24 (AAA), at steps of one in the 24 actual ratings given by Fitch (two more ratings than given in Table 12.4). Figure 12.16 Sovereign ratings since 1997; long-term foreign currency Sovereign ratings since 1997; long-term foreign currency, selected countries Austria, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK, USA 24 Japan 20 China 16 India 12 Nigeria Brazil 8 Russia 4 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: based on data from Fitch Ratings; ratings transformed to a scale from 0 (D) to 24 (AAA), at steps of one in the 24 actual ratings given by Fitch (two more ratings than given in Table 12.4).