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What Happened Since 2011?
by Eugene V. Bobukh
Краткое Содержание
Предыдущих Серий
1950s
First satellite
First spy satellite
First nuclear tests in space
First interplanetary probes
A man went to space
1960s
…and to the Moon
Our probes reached Mars
<= We killed nuclear propulsion
…and reached the limits of
chemical one =>
First space telescopes
1970s
First generation space stations
“Distant” planets reached by probes
The birth of contemporary planetary science
Second generation space stations
1980s
Commercial space freight
Space Shuttle
Permanent “temporary” solution
No robots or people to the Moon
Attempt and failure to build
cheap launch system (project
OTRAG)
Third generation space stations
1990s
Hubble space telescope
International Space Station
СССР медным тазом...
Space cooperation
Delta Clipper is no more...
2000 -- 2011
Orbital space tourism
China – manned space flight
Scramjet breakthrough
Asian players reach Moon, asteroids,
Mars, Venus
SpaceX – private space freight
2011 – 2014. The Plan.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Manned Space Flight
Propulsion Development
Solar System Planetary Research
Beyond the Solar System
[Briefly] New Telescopes
Selected Research from EBI 2014
1. Manned Space Flight
Space Shuttle Grounded
Replacement unclear
Tiangong-1. Chinese Space Station
•
•
•
•
Third nation capable of that
1st generation
Two manned flights
Ambitious plans
Dragon | DragonRider © SpaceX
• Privately owned
spacecraft capable
of manned orbital
flight and docking
• “My CEO has a
spaceship!” 
• Carries 7 people
• ISS docking 2012
• Manned plans >2015
• Target launch cost
$140M (vs. $120$180M for Soyuz)
Manned Mars Flights
• Numerous projects, most
should’ve not even existed
• Three types of madness
(technological, ethical, or
just madness)
• The least insane:
Inspiration Mars
Foundation
– by Dennis Tito
– Manned flyby
– Target launch 2018
Manned Flight Landscape Change
• European Space
Agency (ESA) ~2020+
• Iran 2017
• India >2017
• Japan 2025
• About 10 privatelyfunded companies at
least in development
phase targeting
manned LEO flight
• Motivational limit?
2. Propulsion Development
Scramjet Tests
• Concept: 1950s
• Breakthrough: 2000s
• USA: 05/2013 X51A WaveRider
Mach 5.1 for 3
minutes
• China: 01/2014
WU-14 Mach 10+
[details unclear]
Single Stage to Orbit
• Skylon (UK + ESA)
– Airbreathing SABRE engine
– Cools air 1000 C -> -150 C in
0.01 sec
– Capability demonstrated in the
lab for 6 mins in 2012
• Haas 2c (Austria + Romania)
–
–
–
–
LOX + kerosene rocket
50 kg payload
510 kg dry weight
16,000 kg full weight
3. Solar System
Ice Confirmed on Mercury
• First seen via
radars
• Confirmed by
MESSENGER, USA
11/2012
• ~1015 kg
Venus Express
• By ESA
• Detailed understanding of
atmosphere
• SO2 fluctuations => volcanism?
• Infrared transparency windows
confirmed @ 1.1 mkm
• Emissivity areas interpreted as
fresh (unweathered) lava flows
around volcanoes.
Moon
• GRAIL (USA)
• LADEE (USA)
• Chang’e 3 lander
(China)
• Yutu rover (China)
Mars
• Curiosity rover
(USA)
• http://www.yout
ube.com/watch?v
=gZX5GRPnd4U
• (Other rovers
and satellites
keep working)
• Mars-3
discovered!
Asteroids
• Dawn, USA (ion propulsion)
• Visited Vesta in 2011
• En route to Ceres, ETA 2015
?
Jupiter
•
•
•
•
Juno, USA
Launched Aug 2011
ETA July 2016
Targets Jupiter’s internal
structure and atmosphere
– Deep atmosphere via
microwaves
– Gravity of the interiors
• Carries a visible light
camera solely for education
and public outreach
4. Beyond The Solar System
5 minutes break?
1780 planets found as of 04/2014!
50% from Kepler mission 2009-2013-?
Mostly close “hot Jupiters” so far but slowly extending
A “Pale Blue Dot”?
• Most not even seen
• Direct imaging for the
largest
• Radius, mass, density for
many
• Atmospheric transmission
spectra!
• Detecting first molecules in
atmospheres (CH4, CO,
CO2, H2O, H, Na, K)
• Building first surface maps
• Shift space -> ground tools
Exoplanets Zoo
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The nearest (to us) planet: Alf Cen B b 1.3 pc
The most distant from us (as measured): SWEEPS-11 8500 pc
The heaviest: USco1602-2401 b 47 Mjup (probably a brown dwarf), many around 10-20 Mjup
The smallest: Kepler-9 d (0.02 MEarth, or 1/5th of Mercury)
The closest to its star: PSR 1719-14 b, 0.0044 au (2.2 hours period)
The farthest from the star: HIP 77900 b, 3200 au
The hottest: probably USco1602-2401 b, 2790 K (some are calculated even hotter, 7000+ K)
The hottest primary star(s): Class B @33,000K for NY Vir b, class B6 @13,700K for HIP 77900 b
The coldest primary star(s): CFBDS 1458 b, near T9.5 @540K, WISE 1217+16A b near T8 @575 K
The least dense: Kepler-51 c, ~0.03* g/cm3, WASP-12b 0.33 g/cm3
The most dense: 2M 0746+20 b, ~40* g/cm3; PSR J1719-1438 b >23 g/cm3.
The darkest: TrES-2b, albedo 0.04 – 0.1% (black print is 2%)
With most suns: PH1b (AKA Kepler-64b) : 4 (F & M stars)
With most planets in one system: HD 10180 (6-9 per different sources) (G star)
Notable peculiarities
–
–
–
–
At least 4 planets around pulsars
“Carbon” planets where C/O > 1. SiC crust.
Super-hot Jupiters with iron rain
Evaporating rocky planet: KIC 12557548 b (still debating)
5. (Some) New Telescopes
Галопом по Европам
New Or In Progress
•
Gaia space telescope (astrometry), launched
12/2013
– Measure the position, distance, and annual proper
motion of stars with an accuracy of about 7-300 µas
– A fly on the Moon equivalent (but no pictures!)
•
European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT)
39.3 m.
– Approved 2012, planned for 2022, 1 – 650 mas
resolution
– (a fly on ISS)
– eXtreme Adaptive Optics (XAO)
– Biosignatures detection in exoplanets atmospheres
•
•
•
James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 6.5m,
ETA 2018
Two NRO spy telescopes donated to NASA ->
Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope 2020s
Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)
– Will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit
around the brightest stars in the sky. NASA.
– Approved 04/2013, launch planned for 2017
6. Conference Materials
Search for Life Beyond the Solar System — Exoplanets, Biomarkers and Instruments
Tucson, Arizona, March 2014
Progress Toward Reliable Planet
Occurrence Rates with Kepler
• Natalie Batalha
(NASA Ames
Research Center)
• Approximately
7% of G & K
dwarfs harbor a
planet smaller
than 1.5 Re in the
optimistic HZ
• This closes a 400
years old question
Spectropolarimetry & Biosignatures
• How do you detect organic molecules
out there?
– Need to know which ones
– Need to be sure they are not natural
•
•
•
•
Chirality
Homochirality of biological matter
Sugar!
Circular dichroism and selective
reflection
• “Scattered light microbial polarization
levels are in the range pc ≈ 10−3 to
10−4, the leaf has pc ≈ 2 × 10−3,
whereas the iron oxide has a root mean
square noise level pc ≈ 4 × 10−5, where
pc is the degree of circular polarization”
Biosignatures from circular
spectropolarimetry: key science for ELTs?
• K. G. Strassmeier, T. A.
Carroll & M. Mallonn
(Leibniz-Institute for
Astrophysics Potsdam (AIP),
Germany)
• [Second picture: Towards
Polarimetric Exoplanet
Imaging with ELTs
Christoph U. Keller (Leiden
Observatory,
[email protected]),
Visa Korkiakoski (Leiden
Observatory), Michiel
Rodenhuis (Leiden
Observatory), Frans Snik
(Leiden Observatory)”]
• Wait for 2022+
Finding planets transiting the brightest
stars with MASCARA
• J.F.P. Spronck (Leiden University),
A.-L. Lesage (Leiden University),
R. Stuik (Leiden University), F.
Bettonvil (ASTRON), I.A.G. Snellen
(Leiden University)
• 5 cameras per station
• 24 mm F/1.4 Canon lenses
• 11 Mpx CCD detectors
• Magnitude range V = 4-8
• Cost: around $100,000
Interplanetary Exchange of Meteoritic
Material: From Europa to the Earth
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•
•
Ma del Carmen Ayala Loera (IAUNAM, Ensenada), Mauricio Reyes
Ruiz (IA-UNAM, Ensenada), Carlos E.
Chavez Pech (FIME-AUNL), Hector
Aceves Campos (IA-UNAM,
Ensenada), Samuel Navarro (IAUNAM, Ensenada).
“A simple estimate of the collision
probability of ejecta with Earth,
indicates that for a high velocity
impactor, which leads to high velocity
ejecta, this can be as high as
Pcol=0.034 for a single impact.
Our results sugest that the exchange
of crustal material from Europa with
Earth and other solar system bodies,
is possible. Orbital evolution suggests
that some ejecta may evolve into
interestellar transfers.”
Done!
Thank you for attention!
Questions?
Backups
Pluto
• New Horizons (USA)
• ETA 07/2015
• On the left: still the
best map of Pluto we
have today
The Role of Oxygen
Oxidizer
Pauling
Solar System
electronegati abundance (O ==
vity
100%)
F
3.98
O
Valence
Comments
1*10-5
1
Very aggressive
3.44
100%
2
Used by our life
Cl
3.16
0.03%
1
N
3.04
13%
3
Br
2.96
5*10-7
1
I
2.66
4*10-8
1
S
2.58
2.1%
2
Se
2.55
3*10-6
2
C
2.55
48%
4
N2 is almost inert
Used by our life
Solid; yields to O and S
New Telescopes
•
Out
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Real:
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Herschel Space Observatory
Kepler
Hubble Space Telescope 1990
Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) 10.4 m
VLT 1,2,3, & 4 Very Large Telescope 4x8.2 m
CHARA array optical interferometer 6x1 m @330m, 0.5mas resolution in NIR
Spitzer Space Telescope
Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) (Phased-array optics for combined "11.9 m"[2])
Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer 2009 -- planets in IR, inclusing in the Solar System, and ultra-cold brown dwarfs
Proposed or in construction:
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Gaia space telescope (astrometry), launched 12/2013
•
•
Determine the position, distance, and annual proper motion of 1 billion stars with an accuracy of about 20 µas (microarcsecond) at 15 mag, and 200 µas at 20 mag.
Determine the positions of stars at a magnitude of V = 10 down to a precision of 7 (μas) (this is equivalent to measuring the diameter of a hair from 1000 km away);
between 12 and 25 μas down to V = 15, and between 100 and 300 μas to V = 20, depending on the colour of the star.
–
European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) 39.3 m. Approved 2012, planned for 2022, 1 – 650 mas resolution
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Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) 20 m, construction planned to start in April 2014
Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) space telescope 2025 – 2035 for biosignatures collection
James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 6.5m cold, 0.6 to 28.2 mkm, planned launch in 2018
Two NRO spy telescopes donated to NASA -> Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WISE) -> 2020s
NEAT: an astrometric space telescope, 2015-2025 plan, 0.05μas @1σ
Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit around the brightest stars in the sky. NASA, Approved 04/2103,
launch planned for 2017
Allen Telescope Array (ATA), also One Hectare Telescope (1hT). Under construction. Radiointerferometer, 350. ATA-42 complete in 2007,
–
Planetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO), planned for 2024
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eXtreme Adaptive Optics (XAO),
Survey 1,000,000 stars for SETI emission with enough sensitivity to detect an Arecibo radar out to 300 pc within the range of 1 and 10 GHz
Discover and characterise a large number of close-by exoplanetary systems, with a precision in the determination of the planet mass up to 10%, of planet radius of up to
2%, and of stellar age up to 10%.
Detect Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone around solar-type stars
Detect super-Earths in the habitable zone around solar-type stars
Conference Materials
• Synthetic Biology and the Search for Extraterrestrial
Life Lynn J. Rothschild (NASA Ames Research Center,
[email protected]), Kosuke Fujishima
(University of California Santa Cruz, University
Affiliated Research Center at NASA Ames Research
Center) “our lab has begun using synthetic biology – the
design and construction of new biological parts and
systems and the redesign of existing ones for useful
purposes – as an enabling technology. One theme, the
“Hell Cell” project, focuses on creating artificial
extremophiles in order to push the limits for Earth life,
and to understand how difficult it is for life to evolve
into extreme niches”
Conference Materials
• SETI Programs at the University of California,
Berkeley Eric J. Korpela (University of California
(UCB), [email protected]), Andrew V.P.
Siemion (UCB, ASTRON), Dan Werthimer (UCB),
Joshua Von Korff (Georgia State University),
Abhimat Gautham (UCB), Jeff Cobb (UCB), Matt
Lebofsky (UCB), Matt Dexter (UCB), David
MacMahon (UCB), Shelley Wright (University of
Toronto). Various directions, including strong μs
duration dispersed radio pulses.
Conference Materials
• NEAT: an astrometric space telescope to
search for habitable exoplanets in the solar
neighborhood Antoine CROUZIER, et. al. “NEAT
(Nearby Earth Astrometric Telescope) is a
concept of astrometric mission proposed to ESA
which goal is to make a whole sky survey of
close (less then 20 pc) planetary systems. The
detection limit required for the instrument is the
astrometric signal of an Earth analog (at 10
pc). ”
Conference Materials
• Stellar orbits in the Galaxy and mass extinctions on
the Earth: a connection? Gustavo F. Porto de Mello
(Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Wilton S. Dias
(Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Jacques Lépine
(Universidade de São Paulo, Diego Lorenzo-Oliveira
(Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rodrigo S.
Kazu (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro) “We
discuss the possible implications of this fact to the longterm habitability of the Earth, and possible correlations
of the Sun’s passage through the spiral arms with the
five great mass extinctions of the Earth’s biosphere from
the Late Ordovician to the Cretaceous-Tertiary.”
Conference Materials
• Characterizing atmospheres of transiting planets
from the ground Ignas Snellen (Leiden
Observatory, The Netherlands): a ground-based
spectroscopic method to detect “orbital inclination
and masses of hundred(s) of non-transiting planets,
line-by-line molecular band spectra, planet
rotation and global wind patterns, longitudinal
spectral variations, and possibly isotopologue
ratios” for hot Jupiters and possibly smaller
planets
Why fly?
•
Comsats, weather, maps, military?
– Need neither humans nor a flight too far.
•
Mine resources?
– Nothing (maybe except for 3He) comes even close to being economically or energetically
profitable
•
Science, planetary research, astrophysics?
– Robots are cheaper, easier to protect, and become increasingly smarter.
– You don’t seriously propose that a Man’s Mission in space is of a repairman?
•
Reduce Earth population? Colonize Mars?
– At $1010 per person?
•
Populate Antarctica or Sahara first…
– Radically different from Columbus’ situation who arrived to a *habitable* place!
•
Meet other civilizations?
– Not in Solar System and not via interstellar flight in any foreseeable future.
•
Develop new technologies?
– Possible. Better solution: give a talented team a bunch of $$$ and ask to build a perpetuum
mobile. The flow of engineering discoveries is guaranteed to never end!
There seems to be no reason
Yet reality disagrees
People die to climb Everest
Some live for years in Antarctica
Some spend years studying Neptune satellites
Some seriously propose one-way missions to Mars
A glimpse from the past:
artists’ impressions of Mars polar cup area:
By Georgy Kurnin, 1974 or much earlier.
Has nothing to do with the reality.
By Reuters Pictures, 2008.
Scientifically correct.
If you knew nothing about Mars,
which picture would’ve likely convinced you to go there?
If you think about that…
(and I don’t claim to know the ultimate answer)
There is a demand for dream and inspiration,
as strong as for food and oxygen.
When inspiration is the demand, art is the response
Yes, current manned spaceflight is… a
form of art! Extremely expensive, risky,
but incredibly inspiring one.
Yes, there is science and practical part
here – and something more important:
food for spirit.
In some sense, this picture indeed was
worth $25B at the time.
It paid back to America way more
than that – with international prestige,
recognition, and most importantly with
people who value science and are
always looking up the skies for the
unknown.