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HART RESEARCH A S SOC I A T ES Progressive Tax Reform: Still A Winning Budget Message Key findings from a nationwide survey among 1,006 voters conducted January 18 – 22, 2013 for Voters Still Want Top 2% To Pay More Taxes Should pay MORE in taxes Pay the right amount in taxes Should pay LESS in taxes April 2012 66% The richest 2% 20% 18% 9% 6% Large corporations 64% 18% 6% 7% 9% 46% 41% 2 66% 18% 11% The middle class 70% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for 55% 34% Voters: After Fiscal Cliff, We Still Need To Do More To Make Sure Wealthy Pay Fair Share On January 1, Congress passed a bill to address the “fiscal cliff.” With which statement about the fiscal cliff and taxes do you agree more? All voters The fiscal cliff bill raised taxes on the rich enough, and now the wealthy should not have to pay any more in taxes 28% Candidate who opposes any to increase We still need to do more make sure the in taxes wealthy pay their fair share of taxes 59% 3 Still need to do more so Bill raised taxes on rich wealthy pay fair share enough Democrats 11% 82% Independents 25% 55% Republicans 50% 34% Obama states 27% 60% Romney states 30% 56% 2014 Senate target states 25% 64% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Voters Reject A Cuts-Only Approach In Favor Of Plan That Raises Revenue From Wealthy & Corporations Which approach do you prefer for dealing with the deficit? Prefer a bill that only cuts spending with no increase in taxes 38% +16 Prefer a bill that increases tax revenue from wealthy and corporations and cuts spending 54% 4 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for But Voters Want Mix Of Revenue And Spending Cuts, Not A Revenue-Only Package Which approach do you prefer for dealing with the deficit? Prefer a bill that only cuts spending with no increase in taxes 48% Prefer a bill that increases tax revenue from wealthy and corporations and does not cut spending -12 36% Voters worry about Democrats not getting spending under control (43%) as much as GOP cutting important programs too much (39%). 5 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Use Tax Reform Revenue For Public Investment And Deficit Reduction, Not Rate Cuts Congress is considering legislation to reform the tax system by closing loopholes and limiting deductions for wealthy individuals. How should tax revenue raised from these reforms be used? Reduce deficit; public Reduce investment tax rate All voters Reduce the budget deficit and make public investments 66% Reduce tax rates 23% 6 Democrats 69% 21% Independents 66% 21% Republicans 62% 27% Obama states 68% 24% Romney states 63% 23% 2014 Senate target states 63% 22% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Public’s Priorities on Taxes This should be a very important goal* for the new budget bill: Ensure big corporations pay fair share of taxes 55% Close tax loopholes that benefit big corporations 51% Ensure rich pay their fair share of taxes 49% Reduce tax rates on all taxpayers Reduce tax rates on corporations 21% 11% * 9-10 ratings on zero-to-ten scale, 10 = extremely important goal 7 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Public’s Budget Priorities: Spending This should be a very important goal* for the new budget bill: Protect K-12 education from cuts 64% Reduce federal budget deficit 62% Protect Social Security and Medicare from cuts 58% Reduce federal government spending 57% Increase public investment to create jobs 48% Protect Medicaid from cuts Reform entitlement programs 46% 34% * 9-10 ratings on zero-to-ten scale, 10 = extremely important goal 8 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Next Budget Agreement Should Include Revenue From Wealthy And Corporations On the next budget agreement, do you agree more with Democrats or with Republicans? All voters DEMOCRATS: budget should include new tax revenue from limiting tax breaks for wealthy and corporations, in addition to spending cuts Agree much more 35% 57% REPUBLICANS: budget should include only spending cuts, with no increase in taxes on anyone Agree much more 23% 9 39% Agree with Agree with Democrats Republicans Democrats 88% 10% Independents 54% 37% Republicans 21% 76% Obama states 60% 36% Romney states 49% 45% 2014 Senate target states 57% 40% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Democrats Win Debate Over Need For Revenue In Next Agreement Concerning budget and taxes, with which statement do you agree more? REPUBLICANS: “Congress just passed a huge tax increase, and already President Obama is demanding more tax increases. But further tax hikes will kill jobs, hurt our economy, and endanger our children's future. Now we need to cut spending on the wasteful government programs that are the real source of our deficit. We don't have a deficit problem because we tax too little, we have it because we spend too much." Agree strongly 29% 37% DEMOCRATS: “It's wrong to balance the budget on the backs of the middle class by relying only on cuts to vital programs such as Medicaid and education. Instead of taking away families' health care, we should limit tax deductions for the richest two percent. Instead of cutting funding for schools, let's end tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas. If we ask the rich and large corporations to pay their fair share, we can be fiscally responsible and protect the middle class." Agree strongly 44% 10 55% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Support For Tax Revenue from Wealthy Strongly approve Eliminate loophole that allows hedge fund mgrs to pay lower tax rate than middle class Place 5% surtax on income over $1 million per year Eliminate loophole that allows wealthy to avoid paying capital gains tax on inherited stocks/bonds Limit deductions for people making over $250,000/year 75% 57% 67% 41% 60% 40% 26% Over $250K income: end lower tax rate on income from selling stocks/assets 24% Over $250K income: end lower tax rate on dividend income from stocks 25% 11 Somewhat approve 55% 52% 48% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for 73% favor (49% strongly) surtax on $10 million/more Strong Support For Progressive Corporate Tax Reform Policies Strongly approve Increase tax on U.S. corporations’ overseas profits to ensure it is as much as tax on their U.S. profits 12 77% 55% Close loopholes allowing corporations/wealthy to avoid U.S. taxes by shifting income overseas Prevent corporations from avoiding taxes when they award execs millions in stock options Eliminate tax breaks for oil companies 83% 59% Ensure all corporations pay at least 25% on profits earned overseas Establish small tax on all stock/bond/market trades (e.g., $3 on every $10K) Somewhat approve 73% 58% 48% 34% 40% 63% 62% 59% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Strong Opposition To Specific Spending Cuts Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Cut spending on K-12 public education Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove 13% 6% 83% 71% Cut Medicaid health program 17% 6% 80% 63% Reduce annual cost of living increase for Social Security benefits Raise age for Medicare eligibility from 65 to 67 29% 13% 39% 15% 41% 13 65% 51% 58% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Strongest Messages In Favor Of New Tax Revenue Very/fairly convincing reason for raising new tax revenue in the next budget by limiting deductions for wealthy and closing corporate tax loopholes: 68% We should end tax breaks to large corporations that ship jobs overseas and use that money to invest in jobs in America improving our roads and bridges, rebuilding manufacturing and making us energy independent. 67% We should ask millionaires to pay at least as high a tax rate as their secretaries, instead of cutting education funding for our children. 63% The fiscal cliff bill left in place huge loopholes and special-interest tax breaks used by big corporations to avoid taxes. Profitable corporations-some of whom pay no taxes at all--should do their share to help reduce the deficit. 62% It's better to end huge tax subsidies to oil companies making record profits than to make seniors pay more for Medicare. 14 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Weaker Messages In Favor Of New Tax Revenue Very/fairly convincing reason for raising new tax revenue in the next budget by limiting deductions for wealthy and closing corporate tax loopholes: 46% If we keep tax breaks for the richest 2% and big corporations, we won't be able to afford to protect middle-class priorities like education and Medicaid from deep cutbacks. 41% For every dollar in new revenue raised from the tax bill, more than double that amount will be cut from programs that educate our kids, help you qualify for Social Security, keep our food safe, and make our nation secure. 40% In the budget agreements reached so far by President Obama and Congress, for every $1 of new tax revenue raised, $2.50 has been cut from spending that protects our families and nation and creates jobs.* * Using “$1.5 trillion in cuts” and “$600 billion in revenue” is even weaker (35%). 15 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Democrats Have Winning Message On Limiting Tax Breaks For Wealthy Individuals Concerning taxes, with which statement do you agree more? DEMOCRATS: “Limiting the tax breaks that wealthy people get will make the tax system more fair. It's not right that the wealthy receive a larger tax break than middle-class families when they have a home mortgage, contribute to a 401k, or pay property taxes." Agree strongly 39% 54% +12 Democrats REPUBLICANS: "President Obama and the Democrats just raised taxes on small businesses and many families across America. Raising taxes again will not solve Washington's spending problem, it will only hurt our economy and destroy jobs." Agree strongly 31% 16 42% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Framing the Debate On The Budget And Taxes 17 Our opponents have 2 key vulnerabilities in this debate: They favor a “cuts only” approach to deficit reduction and refuse to discuss revenue They want new tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. We need to make our opponents own these extreme positions (which they will try to obscure), which are opposed by overwhelming majorities of voters. When possible, link unpopular spending cuts to tax cut demands: We should not cut education for our children so that millionaires can pay a lower tax rate than their secretaries It's wrong to make seniors pay more for Medicare in order to give tax cuts to oil companies making record profits. Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Corporate Tax Reform 18 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Little Support For Lowering Tax Rates On Corporations Tax rates on corporations should be lower Not sure 9% Tax rates on corporations should be higher 16% 75% HIGHER/ SAME 27% Tax rates on corporations should be kept at the current level 19 48% Democrats Independents Republicans Higher 67% 42% 29% Obama states 50% Romney states 44% 2014 Sen. targets 47% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Lower 6% 19% 27% 16% 18% 18% Use Corporate Tax Reform Revenue For Public Investment And Deficit Reduction, Not Rate Cuts For which one of these should tax revenue from closing corporate loopholes and limiting deductions be used? All voters Reduce deficit/ make public Reduce rates on corporations investments 83% Reduce the budget deficit and make public investments 11% Democrats 84% 11% Independents 87% 10% Republicans 79% 13% Obama states 85% 10% Romney states 80% 13% 2014 Senate target states 85% 8% Reduce tax rates on corporations 20 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Raising Revenue From Corporations Is Winning Message For Democrats Concerning corporate tax rates, with which statement do you agree more? REPUBLICANS: “America has the highest income tax rates on businesses in the world. We need tax reform that broadens the base by eliminating loopholes, which will allow us to reduce corporate tax rates. This kind of pro-growth tax reform will make the system simpler, more fair, grow our economy, and raise more revenue." Agree strongly 23% 37% +21 Democrats DEMOCRATS: “Big corporations use their lobbyists and campaign contributions to rig the tax system in their favor. Profitable oil companies get billions in special tax breaks while large companies like General Electric and Verizon pay no federal income taxes some years. It's about time big corporations started living by the same rules as the rest of us." Agree strongly 44% 21 58% Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for Reasons To Reform Corporate Tax System Which one or two of these are the best reasons to reform the tax system? Apple, Google, and Microsoft avoided billions in U.S. taxes over three years by using tax loopholes 32% More than two dozen big corporations, incl. G.E., Verizon, & Boeing paid no federal income taxes in the last four years 32% Companies that send American jobs overseas get tax breaks 28% Profitable oil companies receive billions of dollars in tax breaks every year 24% The corporate share of federal tax revenue has plummeted by 75% over the past 60 years 13% Corporations have not contributed one dime to reduce the deficit in the recent budget bills 13% 22 Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for HART RESEARCH A S SOC I A T ES Progressive Tax Reform: Still A Winning Budget Message Key findings from a nationwide survey among 1,006 voters conducted January 18 – 22, 2013 for