Download Hart Research Fiscal Cliff Poll PowerPoint

HART
RESEARCH
A S SOC I A T ES
Progressive Tax Reform:
Still A Winning Budget Message
Key findings from a nationwide survey among 1,006 voters
conducted January 18 – 22, 2013
for
Voters Still Want Top 2% To Pay More Taxes
Should pay MORE in taxes
Pay the right amount in taxes
Should pay LESS in taxes
April 2012
66%
The richest 2%
20%
18%
9%
6%
Large corporations
64%
18%
6%
7%
9%
46%
41%
2
66%
18%
11%
The middle class
70%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
55%
34%
Voters: After Fiscal Cliff, We Still Need To Do
More To Make Sure Wealthy Pay Fair Share
On January 1, Congress passed a bill to address the “fiscal cliff.” With which
statement about the fiscal cliff and taxes do you agree more?
All voters
The fiscal cliff bill raised taxes on the rich
enough, and now the wealthy should not
have to pay any more in taxes
28%
Candidate
who opposes
any to
increase
We still need to do more
make sure the
in taxes
wealthy pay their fair share
of taxes
59%
3
Still need to
do more so
Bill raised
taxes on rich wealthy pay
fair share
enough
Democrats
11%
82%
Independents
25%
55%
Republicans
50%
34%
Obama states
27%
60%
Romney states
30%
56%
2014 Senate
target states
25%
64%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Voters Reject A Cuts-Only Approach In Favor Of Plan
That Raises Revenue From Wealthy & Corporations
Which approach do you prefer for dealing with the deficit?
Prefer a bill that only cuts spending with no increase in taxes
38%
+16
Prefer a bill that increases tax revenue from
wealthy and corporations and cuts spending
54%
4
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
But Voters Want Mix Of Revenue And Spending
Cuts, Not A Revenue-Only Package
Which approach do you prefer for dealing with the deficit?
Prefer a bill that only cuts spending with no increase in taxes
48%
Prefer a bill that increases tax revenue from wealthy
and corporations and does not cut spending
-12
36%
Voters worry about Democrats not
getting spending under control (43%)
as much as GOP cutting important
programs too much (39%).
5
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Use Tax Reform Revenue For Public Investment
And Deficit Reduction, Not Rate Cuts
Congress is considering legislation to reform the tax system by closing loopholes and
limiting deductions for wealthy individuals. How should tax revenue raised from these
reforms be used?
Reduce
deficit; public Reduce
investment
tax rate
All voters
Reduce the budget deficit and make public
investments
66%
Reduce tax rates
23%
6
Democrats
69%
21%
Independents
66%
21%
Republicans
62%
27%
Obama states
68%
24%
Romney states
63%
23%
2014 Senate
target states
63%
22%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Public’s Priorities on Taxes
This should be a very important goal* for the new budget bill:
Ensure big corporations
pay fair share of taxes
55%
Close tax loopholes that
benefit big corporations
51%
Ensure rich pay their
fair share of taxes
49%
Reduce tax rates
on all taxpayers
Reduce tax rates
on corporations
21%
11%
* 9-10 ratings on zero-to-ten scale, 10 = extremely important goal
7
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Public’s Budget Priorities: Spending
This should be a very important goal* for the new budget bill:
Protect K-12 education
from cuts
64%
Reduce federal
budget deficit
62%
Protect Social Security
and Medicare from cuts
58%
Reduce federal
government spending
57%
Increase public investment to create jobs
48%
Protect Medicaid
from cuts
Reform entitlement
programs
46%
34%
* 9-10 ratings on zero-to-ten scale, 10 = extremely important goal
8
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Next Budget Agreement Should Include Revenue
From Wealthy And Corporations
On the next budget agreement, do you agree more with Democrats or with Republicans?
All voters
DEMOCRATS: budget should include new
tax revenue from limiting tax breaks for
wealthy and corporations, in addition to
spending cuts
Agree much more
35%
57%
REPUBLICANS: budget should include
only spending cuts, with no increase in
taxes on anyone
Agree much more
23%
9
39%
Agree with Agree with
Democrats Republicans
Democrats
88%
10%
Independents
54%
37%
Republicans
21%
76%
Obama states
60%
36%
Romney states
49%
45%
2014 Senate
target states
57%
40%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Democrats Win Debate Over Need For Revenue
In Next Agreement
Concerning budget and taxes, with which statement do you agree more?
REPUBLICANS: “Congress just passed a huge tax increase, and already President Obama
is demanding more tax increases. But further tax hikes will kill jobs, hurt our economy,
and endanger our children's future. Now we need to cut spending on the wasteful
government programs that are the real source of our deficit. We don't have a deficit
problem because we tax too little, we have it because we spend too much."
Agree strongly
29%
37%
DEMOCRATS: “It's wrong to balance the budget on the backs of the middle class by
relying only on cuts to vital programs such as Medicaid and education. Instead of taking
away families' health care, we should limit tax deductions for the richest two percent.
Instead of cutting funding for schools, let's end tax breaks for corporations that send jobs
overseas. If we ask the rich and large corporations to pay their fair share, we can be
fiscally responsible and protect the middle class."
Agree strongly
44%
10
55%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Support For Tax Revenue from Wealthy
Strongly approve
Eliminate loophole that
allows hedge fund mgrs
to pay lower tax rate than
middle class
Place 5% surtax on
income over $1 million
per year
Eliminate loophole that
allows wealthy to avoid
paying capital gains tax
on inherited stocks/bonds
Limit deductions for
people making over
$250,000/year
75%
57%
67%
41%
60%
40%
26%
Over $250K income: end
lower tax rate on income
from selling stocks/assets
24%
Over $250K income: end
lower tax rate on dividend
income from stocks
25%
11
Somewhat approve
55%
52%
48%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
73% favor (49%
strongly) surtax on
$10 million/more
Strong Support For Progressive Corporate
Tax Reform Policies
Strongly approve
Increase tax on U.S. corporations’ overseas profits
to ensure it is as much as
tax on their U.S. profits
12
77%
55%
Close loopholes allowing
corporations/wealthy to
avoid U.S. taxes by
shifting income overseas
Prevent corporations
from avoiding taxes when
they award execs millions
in stock options
Eliminate tax breaks
for oil companies
83%
59%
Ensure all corporations
pay at least 25% on
profits earned overseas
Establish small tax on all
stock/bond/market trades
(e.g., $3 on every $10K)
Somewhat approve
73%
58%
48%
34%
40%
63%
62%
59%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Strong Opposition To Specific Spending Cuts
Strongly approve
Strongly disapprove
Cut spending on
K-12 public education
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
13%
6%
83%
71%
Cut Medicaid health
program
17%
6%
80%
63%
Reduce annual cost of
living increase for
Social Security benefits
Raise age for Medicare
eligibility from 65 to 67
29%
13%
39%
15%
41%
13
65%
51%
58%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Strongest Messages In Favor Of New Tax Revenue
Very/fairly convincing reason for raising new tax revenue in the next budget by
limiting deductions for wealthy and closing corporate tax loopholes:
68%
We should end tax breaks to large corporations that ship jobs
overseas and use that money to invest in jobs in America improving our
roads and bridges, rebuilding manufacturing and making us energy
independent.
67%
We should ask millionaires to pay at least as high a tax rate as their
secretaries, instead of cutting education funding for our children.
63%
The fiscal cliff bill left in place huge loopholes and special-interest tax
breaks used by big corporations to avoid taxes. Profitable corporations-some of whom pay no taxes at all--should do their share to help
reduce the deficit.
62%
It's better to end huge tax subsidies to oil companies making record
profits than to make seniors pay more for Medicare.
14
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Weaker Messages In Favor Of New Tax Revenue
Very/fairly convincing reason for raising new tax revenue in the next budget by
limiting deductions for wealthy and closing corporate tax loopholes:
46%
If we keep tax breaks for the richest 2% and big corporations, we won't
be able to afford to protect middle-class priorities like education and
Medicaid from deep cutbacks.
41%
For every dollar in new revenue raised from the tax bill, more than
double that amount will be cut from programs that educate our kids,
help you qualify for Social Security, keep our food safe, and make our
nation secure.
40%
In the budget agreements reached so far by President Obama and
Congress, for every $1 of new tax revenue raised, $2.50 has been cut
from spending that protects our families and nation and creates jobs.*
* Using “$1.5 trillion in cuts” and “$600 billion in revenue” is even weaker (35%).
15
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Democrats Have Winning Message On Limiting
Tax Breaks For Wealthy Individuals
Concerning taxes, with which statement do you agree more?
DEMOCRATS: “Limiting the tax breaks that wealthy people get will make the tax
system more fair. It's not right that the wealthy receive a larger tax break than
middle-class families when they have a home mortgage, contribute to a 401k, or pay
property taxes."
Agree strongly
39%
54%
+12 Democrats
REPUBLICANS: "President Obama and the Democrats just raised taxes on small
businesses and many families across America. Raising taxes again will not solve
Washington's spending problem, it will only hurt our economy and destroy jobs."
Agree strongly
31%
16
42%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Framing the Debate On The Budget And Taxes
17

Our opponents have 2 key vulnerabilities in this debate:
 They favor a “cuts only” approach to deficit reduction and
refuse to discuss revenue
 They want new tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy.

We need to make our opponents own these extreme
positions (which they will try to obscure), which are opposed
by overwhelming majorities of voters.

When possible, link unpopular spending cuts to tax cut
demands:
 We should not cut education for our children so that
millionaires can pay a lower tax rate than their secretaries
 It's wrong to make seniors pay more for Medicare in order
to give tax cuts to oil companies making record profits.
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Corporate Tax Reform
18
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Little Support For Lowering Tax Rates
On Corporations
Tax rates on
corporations
should be lower
Not
sure
9%
Tax rates on
corporations
should be higher
16%
75%
HIGHER/
SAME
27%
Tax rates on
corporations
should be kept at
the current level
19
48%
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Higher
67%
42%
29%
Obama states
50%
Romney states
44%
2014 Sen. targets 47%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Lower
6%
19%
27%
16%
18%
18%
Use Corporate Tax Reform Revenue For Public
Investment And Deficit Reduction, Not Rate Cuts
For which one of these should tax revenue from closing corporate loopholes
and limiting deductions be used?
All voters
Reduce deficit/
make public Reduce rates on
corporations
investments
83%
Reduce the
budget
deficit and
make public
investments
11%
Democrats
84%
11%
Independents
87%
10%
Republicans
79%
13%
Obama states
85%
10%
Romney states
80%
13%
2014 Senate
target states
85%
8%
Reduce tax
rates on
corporations
20
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Raising Revenue From Corporations Is Winning
Message For Democrats
Concerning corporate tax rates, with which statement do you agree more?
REPUBLICANS: “America has the highest income tax rates on businesses in the
world. We need tax reform that broadens the base by eliminating loopholes, which
will allow us to reduce corporate tax rates. This kind of pro-growth tax reform will
make the system simpler, more fair, grow our economy, and raise more revenue."
Agree strongly
23%
37%
+21 Democrats
DEMOCRATS: “Big corporations use their lobbyists and campaign contributions to
rig the tax system in their favor. Profitable oil companies get billions in special tax
breaks while large companies like General Electric and Verizon pay no federal
income taxes some years. It's about time big corporations started living by the same
rules as the rest of us."
Agree strongly
44%
21
58%
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
Reasons To Reform Corporate Tax System
Which one or two of these are the best reasons to reform the tax system?
Apple, Google, and Microsoft avoided billions in U.S. taxes
over three years by using tax loopholes
32%
More than two dozen big corporations, incl. G.E., Verizon, &
Boeing paid no federal income taxes in the last four years
32%
Companies that send American jobs overseas get tax breaks
28%
Profitable oil companies receive billions of dollars
in tax breaks every year
24%
The corporate share of federal tax revenue has
plummeted by 75% over the past 60 years
13%
Corporations have not contributed one dime
to reduce the deficit in the recent budget bills
13%
22
Progressive Tax Policy: A Winning Budget Message—January 2013—Hart Research for
HART
RESEARCH
A S SOC I A T ES
Progressive Tax Reform:
Still A Winning Budget Message
Key findings from a nationwide survey among 1,006 voters
conducted January 18 – 22, 2013
for