Download Ray on Values of America

Understanding
America:
Values-Based Analysis for
Political, Economic, Social, &
Cultural Findings
Paul H. Ray, Ph.D.
[email protected]
paul@ culturalcreatives.org
Conventional Population
Analysis Uses Demographics
•
•
•
•
We’ve been doing it for 50-80 years
Almost a tradition in Gov’t and Biz
It’s cheap, BUT an ineffective predictor
Values are much better predictors to real
behaviors: consumers, citizens, voters
• Would demographics say who supports
terrorists? - Hardly
Look at Values & See 50 years of
Cultural Change, Worldwide
Floods of new information:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Awareness of Western Lifestyles
Planetary Ecology Fears
Jobs, Health and Education Concerns
Organic food vs Environmental-poisons
Spiritual traditions from everywhere
Nuclear, infotech, biotech, nanotech - all
go from promise to threats
Values Reflect 50 years of
Cultural Change Worldwide
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Nuclear Fears Worldwide
Global Awareness of Whole Populations
Visibility of Western Lifestyles Worldwide
Willingness to move beyond Welfare State
Environmental Awareness Goes Ecological
Worldwide Peace Movement Emerges
Women’s Roles/Views Emerge Worldwide
Beyond Modern Vs. Traditional:
A New Third Culture in the West
• Women’s values and concerns going
public for the first time in recorded
history
• The role of the new social movements and
consciousness movements in educating
the Western world over the past 40 years
Cultural Change from New
Social Movements
• Two effects of cultural changes that grew
out of 40 years of new social movements.
1.The Cultural Side of the movements gave
rise to 50 million Cultural Creatives.
2.The Political Side has taken us “beyond
Left and Right” to 2-dimensional politics.
1. Massive Research Evidence
about the Cultural Creatives:
Carriers of cultural change
• 14 years of Values-and-Lifestyles
Survey Research & Focus Groups
– Over 150,000 people surveyed: national
& regional, many topics
– 500+ values-related focus groups
• 60 in-depth interviews, 4-6 hours each
The Cultural CreativesWho They Are
• They’re literally creating a whole new
culture for our time
• 26% of adults in United States
– 50 million people
• 30-35% of adults in Western Europe
– 80-90 million people
1. The Culture Wars 50 Years Ago
•
•
•
•
•
•
50% MODERNS
50%TRADITIONALS
Secular, materialist
The big city
Hip, up to date
Style & efficiency
Cary Grant
Lauren Bacall
•
•
•
•
•
•
Conservative, pious
Small town, country
Square, out of date
Character, reliability
Jimmy Stewart
June Allyson
1. There are 3 Subcultures Today
• Traditionals
24.5%
• Moderns
49.4%
• Cultural Creatives 26.1%
Total: 100%
Traditionals declined from
half to under a quarter, but
Moderns didn’t win...
ValueGraphics
• A Subculture has different:
—Values = “Most important life priorities”
—Worldview = “How Life works. What’s
real. What Life is all about”
—Lifestyle = “What to buy. How to live”
1. Cultural Creatives Values
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ecology, beyond environmentalism
Planetary awareness
Social Responsibility & Concerns
Authenticity
Relationships, Helping others
Personal Growth, Spirituality
Feminism
They Reject
Materialism,
Status-oriented
Consumption,
Most Ads,
Most TV,
Big Media
Religious Right
Demographics Are Almost
Useless—Values Go Deeper
• CCs a bit more upscale, overall — wide
range of income, education, occupation
• Close to national averages on age, race,
ethnicity, region
• BUT 60% women overall
• Core group (opinion leaders) are 67%
women, or 2:1 women:men
:-) “Where are all the good men?”
ORIGINS: All the new social
movements of past 40 years
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Civil Rights, Social Justice
Peace (1960 to 1990, and Now, again)
Women’s (to Eco-Fem, Fem-Spiritual)
Environmental, becoming Ecology
Planetary: Anti-globalization, Hunger
Personal growth & New spirituality
Alternative Health Care
Organic Food & ‘Natural Everything’
Converging Movements
• 40-80% Overlap in Broad Constituencies
of any pair of social movements
• A typical Cultural Creative identifies with
positions of half a dozen movements
• All movements now share the same values
and worldview = the Cultural Creatives
• All reframe the issues in the same ways.
• Local cooperation of activists
• National organizations fail to cooperate
2. New Social Movements that
generated Cultural Creatives also
generated New Political Demand
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Anti-Globalization, and now, Anti-War
Pro-Ecology—Beyond Environmentalism
Ecology over Economy/Limits to Growth
Alternative Health Care
Feminism and Women’s Perspectives
Social Justice and Minority Rights
Organic Food and Natural ‘Everything’
Want to Be Activist—Socially Contribute
Anti-Corporate Sentiment
Fig. 1 OUR CONVENTIONAL LEFT vs. RIGHT
IMAGE OF POLITICS*
INTERESTED
MIDDLE
ALIENATED &
UNINTERESTD
LEFT
LEFT
LIBERAL
RIGHT
SOCIAL
CONSERVATIVES
CENTER
R
BUSINESS
CONSERVATIVES
Swing voters
*Areas of figure are proportional to national percentages.
Statistics 101... on Right vs Left
When only the tails of a distribution are
meaningful, but the mean of that
distribution isn’t meaningful...
… then either you’ve got a bad measure,
… or you need additional measures to
explain what’s going on in the middle.
A good second dimension should be
orthogonal (at a right angle) to the first
Conventional Political Wisdom says:
These survey variables should be one
Left-Right dimension. They aren’t.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Self-identify as Liberal or Conservative
Religious Right: pro-con
Civil Liberties: pro-con
Self-identify as Traditional, or not
Ecological Sustainability: pro-con
National Health Care: pro-con
Big Business: pro-con
Limits to Growth: pro-con
Feminism: pro-con
In fact, the data shows two dimensions:
1.Liberals vs. Social Conservatives
• Self-identify as Liberal-Conservative
• Religious Right: pro-con
• Civil Liberties: pro-con
• Self-identify as Traditional, or not
2. ‘In Front’ vs. Business Conservatives
• Ecological Sustainability: pro-con
• National Health Care: pro-con
• Big Business: pro-con
• Limits to Growth: pro-con
• Feminism: pro-con
The New Political Compass
In Front On Big, Emerging Issues:
Cultural Creatives, New Progressives
(Calling All New Social Movements!)
Wisdom Culture Paradigm
Est. 45% of Voters
36%
12%
Standing Pat on the Left
Modernist Liberals
Conventional Left Politics
Big Government Paradigm
Est. 15% of Voters
20%
Alienated
19%
Longing for the Old Ways
Cultural Conservatives
Radical & Religious Right
Southern Politics Paradigm
Est. 21% of Voters
14%
Profits Over Planet and People
Business Conservatives
Economic Growth/Globalization
Big Business Paradigm
Est. 19% of Voters
Political North: Demographics
• 36%=70 Million Adult Americans
• 56% Female
• More in Northeast, Upper Midwest,
Pacific Coast, fewest in Mountain States
• 15% people of color
• 9% Hispanic
• Same as National distribution on Age,
Income, Education, Occupation
Political North:
Basic Political Facts
Among Likely Voters, Political North is:
• 45% = 55 Million Voters
• 56% of all Swing Voters
Swing Voters = 53% of Political North
• 17% Liberal vs. 33% Conservative
39% ‘Center’, 10% Beyond Left-Right
• 37% Democrat vs. 29% Republican
27% Independent, 3% 3rd Party
Political North:
Basic Political Facts
•
•
•
•
•
•
*
In the whole adult population, North is:
18% Liberal* vs. 33% Conservative
39% Center, 11% Beyond Left-Right
39% Democrat vs. 28%Republican
27% Independent, 3% 3rd Party
Compare to Voters: They’re the same.
Both Left and Right can call North issues
Left, but most don’t identify with the Left
Political North: Basic Facts
•
•
•
•
•
•
A low marginal cost to mobilizing them:
Volunteer more often and more hours,
Give more money to good causes,
Want to get actively involved
Involved in more New Social Movement
constituencies, and believe their worldviews
Care more about changing the culture
Want politics to deal more with the real
emerging problems threatening our future
Map Of New Political Compass
Core Strategies The Republican
Party
Already Uses to Develop its Main Constituencies
New Progressives
1
Liberal Left
Dishearten and
Demonize Liberals
2
Lower Campaign Turnouts
Grow Dems' Non Voters
By Skunk Effect of
Negative Campaigns
3
4
Social Conservative
Split, Neutralize & Dishearten
With Disinformation
Ultra-Right Media Campaigns
Unify and Mobilize
The Religious Right
Anger vs Secular Liberals
Abortion as Unifier
Hate radio
Milk Big Business for
Bigger Campaign Money
in Exchange for
Crony Capitalism
5
Business Conservatives
Map Of New Political Compass
Core Strategies for the Democratic Party
Needed to Develop its Main Constituencies
New Progressives
Improve Language,
Style, Messaging,
Psychological and
Symbolic Stances
Appeal to Women
2
Create Big Tent Strategy
Unify and Mobilize w ith:
• New Issues Strategies
• New Messaging
• New Retail Outreach
• New Candidates
Use Political North's
Moral PoliticsFrame to
Neutralize Religious Right
Dishearten Not Demonize
Use GOTV
Reduce Dem Nonvoters
3
Distance Democratic Party
and Elected Officials from
Big Money Politics.
Make it easier to attack Biz Cons
and impress Political North
5
Business Conservatives
4
Social Conservative
Liberal Left
1
Map Of New Political Compass
Edge Strategies the Republican Party
Already Seems to be Using with Success
New Progressives
Exploit Wedge Issues
• Property vs Envt
• Anti-Women
• Anti-Gay
Exploit
Wedge Issues
• Play Race Card
• Envt vs Social Justice
7
8
Recruit to SocCons
Demonize New Culture
NonVoters
9
Buy Off & Corrupt Progressive
Politicians and Businesses
Hold Together
10
Nixon's Big Tent
Southern Strategy &
Prevent Dems Wedge
Betw een BizCons & SocCons
Business Conservatives
Social Conservative
Liberal Left
6
Map Of New Political Compass
Edge Strategies for the Democratic Party
Needed for Swing Voters and Marginal Constituencies
8
Liberal Left
Draw Recruits to
Political North's New
Moral Politics Frame
7
NonVoters
Exploit Wedge Issues
Biz Cons vs Soc Cons
Wall St. vs Main St.
9
Expand Role of Green Biz
and CSR Movements.
Draw execs to North from
edge of BizCon Politics
Business Conservatives
10
Social Conservative
New Progressives
Hold Together to Create Big Tent
Prevent Republican Wedge Sew Back Together
• Apollo Alliance Clinton's Big Tent
Prevent Repub Wedge
6
A Change in Political Culture
• Identify less with either Left or Right
• Planetary more than nationalistic interests
• Ecological sustainability, not sentimental
environmentalism, resource management
• Feminism rather than heroic models
• Personal growth over personal ambition
• Condemn corrupt, globalizing megacorporations more than Religious Right
• Get big corporate money out of politics
• Protect a positive future for our children
Political North’s Voters Show
Unmet Political Demand
• Their most important issues are all
‘outside the box’ to Washington politics
• None of their big issues were in the last 4
national election campaigns
• This is the equivalent of political market
failure. Politics abhores a vacuum even
more than Nature does.
• Lincoln’s first political party was Whig.
Remember the Whigs? Parties can die.
Political North’s Voters Show
Unmet Political Demand
Unimpressed with the old pols:
• Inauthentic, psychologically primitive:
Too much blaming, shaming, posturing,
hatred/conflict-driven, violence imagery
• Bereft of innovative, or win-win ideas
• Macho, not women-friendly, emotionally
undeveloped, spiritually empty
• Nationalistic rather than planet-oriented
Political North’s Voters Show
Unmet Political Demand
Don’t like the political meetings:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Crummy group dynamics, factionalism
Vicious infighting and power struggles
Doctrinaire positions and rhetoric
Self-justifying and psychologically naïve
Money-driven strategies
Professionals only; poor use of volunteers
Political North’s Voters Show
Unmet Political Demand
Don’t like the political literature:
•
•
•
•
•
•
No more impressed with Left than Right
Doctrinaire positions and rhetoric
Projecting one’s evil onto the other side
Self-justifying and denigrating others
Old rhetoric no one believes any more
Not interested in rebuilding community
National Education Issues
"America needs a single set of educational standards,
and national funding of education"
3
2
New Progressives
Liberal Left
Social
Conservatives
Business Conservatives
1
National Health Care Issues
"America needs a health insurance plan that covers everyone,
rich or poor, for all illnesses"
3
2
New Progressives
Liberal Left
Social
Conservatives
Business Conservatives
1
Global Ecology Issues
"I'm concerned about problems of the global environment: global warming,
destruction of the rainforests, destruction of species, loss of the ozone layer"
New Progressives
3
2
Social
Conservatives
Liberal Left
Business Conservatives
1
Unmet Political Demand:
The campaign process doesn’t work
• No real way for citizens to get involved in
professionally run campaigns
• Campaign seasons go on too long
—too tedious to pay continuing
attention
• Negativity of news coverage cuts turnout
—personalities and horse races
—
fail to cover issues important to voters
• Big-money-power corrupts all politics
• People-power is nowhere
Political North’s Big Hot Button:
80% fear their children or grandchildren
will grow up in a worse world than they
did. Deep anxiety over the next 20 years.
• Don’t believe politicians will address the key
issues of our longer term future.
• Do believe that Big Business is usually the main
problem— AND that we’re all implicated.
• See the Left’s favorite solutions as ineffectual,
and the Right’s as harmful.
What they want: Big Themes
• Real innovations for ecological sustainability
• Better education for all the children
• Better health care; cleaner food, air and water;
less risk of environmental illness
• Get big corporate money out of politics
• Good hard news political coverage by the media
• More psychological maturity in politics
• Beyond moralizing and economic payoffs, to
serve their new social and lifestyle concerns
• New rules of the game, and better players
Battleground States
Swing Voters
• New Progressives are 58% of Swing
Voters in the 18 Battleground States:
Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Iowa,
Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,
Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico,
Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee,
Washington, Wisconsin
* Underlined = 10+ Electoral votes
Similar Kinds of Results from
European Values Surveys
See
Paul Abramson & Ronald Inglehart,
Values Change in Global Perspective,
University of Michigan Press, 1995
Ronald Inglehart, Modernization and
Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic &
Political Change in 43 Societies, Princeton
Univ. Press, 1997
Paul H. Ray, Ph.D.
Co-Chairman,
Forum for a Wise Civilization,
The Global Academy
101 Bishop Ct.
Novato, CA 94945
415-897-2894
[email protected]
[email protected]