Download The current national situation

THE CURRENT NATIONAL
SITUATION
P R E S E N T E D
T O
T H E
1 0
C A L U A R E G A ,
D R .
A M A D O
S C L F
P A R T N E R S ’
M E E T I N G
J U N E 2 0 1 0
N A S U G B U , B A T A N G A S
M E N D O Z A ,
J R .
( E S C R
A S I A
I N C . )
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
• The May 10 elections and aftermath
• Between now and June 30 (and SONA)
• Challenges for the new president and his
government
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THE MAY 10 ELECTIONS
• You know the outcome: Noy-Bi proclaimed
yesterday by Congress
• Comparatively successful mounting of the first
automated elections in Philippine political history
• The legitimacy problem at the very top is resolved
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A SMALL DETOUR: REMEMBER PGMA?
• Firewall between economic achievements and
political stature
• 35 quarters of uninterrupted economic growth (growth
even during the 2007-2009 world economic crisis)
• Nautical highway
• 7.3% 1st quarter 2010 GDP growth rate; 9.5% GNP growth
rate
• Mahar Mangahas: So what? Hunger matters more than
GNP (More on this in subsequent slides)
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HER LEGITIMACY PROBLEM
• EDSA II is the original source of legitimacy problems
• EDSA II deposed an elected (albeit corrupt)
president
• May 2004 elections thought to have solved
legitimacy question
• Hello Garci (mid-2005) compounds the situation
• PGMA in survival mode since then
• However, that did not prevent her faction from
accumulating wealth and power and committing
other abuses (e.g. extra-judicial executions)
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BETWEEN NOW AND JUNE 30
• No surprises or shocks expected; centrist-orthodox
cabinet appointments
• Financial markets will respond favourably
• International community will continue to be
supportive and hopeful (for change)
• Internal belligerents and NSMs will adopt WAS
stance and await governmental policy
pronouncements (up to SONA in July 2010)
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(IMMEDIATE) CHALLENGES
• Political challenges
• The revenue imperative
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POLITICAL CHALLENGES
• Both legislative chambers could be hostile or
unsupportive of Noynoy’s legislative initiatives
• How do you solve the problem of midnight
appointments (including the SC CJ)?
• How to satisfy and pay political debts incurred
during the electoral campaign?
• Is a debt owed to Binay? If so, how will he be rewarded?
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TEST CASE(S) FOR CREDIBILITY
• The Hacienda Luisita issue
• Corruption: how to prosecute cases against GMA et
al. without appearing vindictive
• Corruption: how to demonstrate success in the light
of possibilities of clean-up
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INTERNAL WARS
• No pronouncement from Noynoy himself so far
• In a public forum a month ago, Ging Deles
confided that
• They are more than ready to resume talks with the MILF
• They are stymied with respect to the CNN
• The last point is understandable given that JMS praised Villar
and has already designated Noynoy as the latest US
puppet in the country
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THE REVENUE IMPERATIVE
• Poor and dropping tax effort since the late 1990s
• Presidential promise: no new taxes
• Hostile/unsupportive Congress: no new taxes
indeed
• Side story: 2010 budget law disallows presidential
impoundment of allocations; further weakens
Noynoy’s influence on choice of legislative
chambers’ leadership
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WHAT NO NEW TAXES MEAN
• Emphasis on revenue enhancement
• Biting the bullet on withdrawal of tax exemptions,
fiscal incentives, etc. enjoyed by the powerful
• Will the new government resort to sale of public
assets (e.g. Malampaya)?
• Will public expenditures be slashed instead?
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DORONILLA ON NOYNOY PRESIDENCY
• Aquino’s responsibility is to use his unique political
capital to build an honest and competent
government
• Aquino’s legitimacy is more solid than that of Cory,
FVR, and GMA; matched slightly only by Erap (41%
vs. 39%)
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SUMMING UP
• New government, new possibilities
• Formidable challenges
• Opportunities for engagement by all comers
• NSMs, POs, etc. must define their own terms of
engagement (TOE) vis-à-vis Noynoy government
and act accordingly
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THE NEED
• For further study of an unfolding situation
• For further discernment
• For more inter-active discussions/deliberations within
NSMs and Pos
• For building a strong and broad coalition to call
upon the Noynoy government to live up to promises
and expectations; focused demands instead of
omnibus programs; identify priorities
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