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Conducting effective research and analysis to support policy delivery. The Green Book: Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government (HM Treasury) Tony Munton Assistant Director Research, Development and Statistics Home Office Evidence-based policies and indicator systems 2006 3 stages at which research and analysis should feed into the policy process: At the start… analysis to support a government decision to adopt a new policy, or to initiate, renew, expand or re-orientate programmes or projects, which would result in measurable benefits and/ or costs to the public. This is the appraisal part of the process. In the middle…. Establish appropriate data collection so that as the chosen option(s) is implemented, useful data can be fed into the evaluation. This is the monitoring part of the process And at the finish ... to undertake a retrospective analysis of a policy, programme or project at its completion, conclusion or revision. This is the evaluation part of the process. Evidence-based policies and indicator systems 2006 • Is there a clearly •identified need? What is to be achieved by the intervention? The ROAMEF model • What would success look like? • What would happen if we don’t intervene? • Ensure that the lessons learnt from the ROAMEF cycle are • What inputs, outputs and outcomes are was actually implemented. fed back into subsequent proposals. • Evaluate the option(s)• that related to the intervention (develop a theory Is there a market failure? • Follows a similar process to the appraisalofbut uses historic rather than forecast data. change)? What would in themeasure absence of intervention? • As with appraisal, an •evaluation willhappen identify and additional costs and • What are the fullthe range of options that might benefits of implemented option(s) in comparison to the “do nothing” option. achieve the desired outcomes? • What will happen if we do intervene? • What might different options achieve above the current situation? • Establish appropriate data collection so that as the chosen option(s) is implemented useful data can be fed into the evaluation stage of the cycle. • Monitor delivery of milestones identified in the • Identification of the “do nothing” option to be used as a baseline to compare the other options; theory of change. • Identifying the additional costs and benefits of each option in comparison to the “do nothing” option; • Valuing the additional costs and benefits of each option in comparison to the “do nothing” option; • Adjusting for the different timing and incidence of costs and benefits by discounting them to present values; • Consideration of any risks and uncertainties; • Initial consideration of what information may be needed at the monitoring and evaluation stages (i.e. to make sure the right Evidence-based policies and indicator systems 2006 information is collected). Practical steps for social research: Some suggestions from the knowledge brokers • Think about potential for forming multidisciplinary teams • Use good theory (and theory of change) • Go for effective evaluation strategies (RCTs) • Think about effective communication of results Evidence-based policies and indicator systems 2006