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第七單元(2) :Supply Chain Coordination & Information Integration Supply Chain Coordination & Information Integration 郭瑞祥教授 》【本著作除另有註明外,採取創用CC「姓名標示 -非商業性-相同方式分享」台灣3.0版授權釋出】 1 Outline ► Part I: Coordination in a supply chain ► Part II: Information integration 2 Coordination in a Supply Chain - The Bullwhip Effect - 長鞭效應(Bullwhip Effect) CoolCLIPS網站 Codigofonte.net網站 IC設備與 零件業 存 貨 3 Microsoft。 Codigofonte.net網站 電腦周邊業 IC製造業 Microsoft。 電腦組裝業 配銷業 臺灣大學 郭瑞 祥老師 存 貨 Microsoft。 存 貨 Microsoft。 存 貨 Microsoft。 存 貨 Microsoft。 Increasing Variability of Orders Retailer ‘s Orders to Manufacturer Consumer Sales Order Quantity 20 20 15 15 Order Quantity 10 5 0 5 Time Wholesaler’s Orders to Manufacturer Order Quantity 4 10 0 Manufacturer’s Orders to Supplier 20 20 15 15 10 Order 10 Quantity 5 5 0 0 Time Time Time The Main Factors of Bullwhip Effect ► Demand forecasting ► Lead time Microsoft。 ► Batch ordering ► Price fluctuating ► Shortage gaming 5 Demand Forecasting ► Each player in supply chain forecasts its demand by its order which is more variable than the customer demand. ► When placing order, inventory policies such as (S,s) or (R,Q), lead time, and safety stock policy further distort the demand information. ► Contributing factors – No visibility of end demand – Multiple forecasts 6 Solutions ► ► ► ► Sharing of point-of-sale data Implementing collaborative forecasting and planning Designing single stage of control of replenishment (VMI) Large retailers usually share their future order forecast by weighted binding promises, e.g., Dell shares 12-week forecast with the first 4-week forecast 100% confirm and next 8-week forecast 75% confirm. ► It’s more important to share future demand forecast than to share the past customer demands. ► Aggregate demand usually decreases the variability of the forecast. 7 Lead Time ► Lead time is used to estimate the safety stock and reorder point. So when lead time increases, the variability in order quantities increases. ► Lead time usually has a trade-off relationship with inventory. However, more accurate demand forecast and instant information sharing could simultaneously decrease both. 8 Lead Time Reduction Solutions ► Order lead time: the time it takes to produce and ship the item. ► Information lead time: the time it takes to process an order. ► Order lead time can be reduced through cross-docking. ► Information lead time can be reduced through the use of electronic data interchange (EDI), E-market, or other tools. 9 Batch Ordering ► For economic reason, orders are usually placed by a large quantity, called batch size, especially when (S,s) or (R,Q) policy is adopted. ► Transportation strategies (full truckload quantities) add up to the reasons of batch ordering. ► Contributing factors – High order cost – Full truck load economies 10 Solutions ► EDI & computer-assisted ordering (CAO) ► Discounted on assorted truckload, consolidated by 3rd party logistics ► Regular delivery appointment ► Volume and not lot size discounts 11 Price Fluctuation ► Discount and promotion policies add up to the reasons of demand variability. ► Customers and retailers usually stock up when prices are ready to increase. ► Contributing factors – High-low pricing leads to forward buy – Delivery and purchase are not synchronized 12 Solutions Reduce both the frequency and the level of wholesale price discounting ► Establishing an EDLP policy ► Use CAO (computer-assisted ordering) or CRP (continuous replenishment program) to acknowledge the company the excessive costs of forward buying ► Implement ABC (activity-base costing) system ► Adopt limited purchase quantities ► Adopt scan based promotions 13 Shortage Gaming ► When retailers and distributors suspect that a product will be in short supply, and therefore anticipate receiving supply proportional to the amount ordered, inflated orders will occur. ► When the period of shortage is over, the orders goes back to their regular level. ► Contributing factors – Proportional rationing scheme – Ignorance of supply conditions – Unrestricted orders & free return policy 14 Solutions To prevent shortage situations, a supplier can ► Share capacity and inventory information ► Work with customers to place orders well in advance of the sales season ► Charge penalty for exaggerated gaming ► Allocate based on past sales. ► Build trust and partnership 15 A Framework for Supply Chain Coordination Causes of Bullwhip Information Sharing 》Vendor-managed inventory (VMI) 》Discount for information sharing 》Consumer direct 》Lead-time reduction 》Echelon-based inventory control Demand Forecast Update 》Understanding system dynamics 》Use point-of-sale (POS) data 》Electronic data interchange (EDI) 》Internet 》Computer-assisted ordering (CAO) 》EDI 》Internet ordering Order Batching 》Discount for truckload assortment 》Delivery appointments 》Consolidation 》Logistics Outsourcing 》Reduction in fixed cost of ordering by EDI or electronic commerce 》CAO Price Fluctuations 》Continuous replenishment program (CRP) 》Everyday low cost (EDLC) 》Everyday low price (EDLP) 》Activity-based costing (ABC) Shortage Gaming 16 》sharing sales, capacity, and inventory data Channel Alignment 》Allocation based on past sales Operational Efficiency Designing a Relationship with Trust ► Assess the value of the relationship ► Identify operational roles and decision rights for each party ► Create effective contracts ► Design effective conflict resolution mechanisms 17 Outline ► Part I: Coordination in a supply chain ► Part II: Information integration 18 Information Driver ► Role in supply chain: 》 Connect various strategy: stages in SC ► Role in competitive 》》 Crucial to daily operations in each stage For growth need ► Characteristics of information required: 》 cost reduction 》 For Accurate 》 Accessible timely 》 Right kind 19 Basic Components of Information ► Supplier information 》 Products, price, lead time, location, order status, ► Manufacturing information modification, payment 》 Products, quantity, location, lead time, trade► Distribution and retailing information offs, cost, batch size 》 Products, location, quantity, mode, price, stored ► Demand information quantity, lead time 》 Customers, price, location, quantity, forecast 20 What is e-Business? ► Business transacted over the Internet – Is product information displayed on the Internet? – Is negotiation over the Internet? – Is the order placed over the Internet? – Is the order tracked over the Internet? – Is the order fulfilled over the Internet? – Is payment transacted over the Internet? 21 What is e-Business? ► “The business-wide integration of processes, applications and organizational structure to create a highperformance business model in the internet economy” -R. Kalakota & M. Robinson ► “e-Business is about transforming key business processes with networking technology” -- K&M and IBM ► “An e-Business is an organization that connects critical business systems directly to their critical constituencies via intranets, extranets and internet” -- IBM’s definition IBM e-business in the City (no longer available) 本作品轉載自(http://www.cleverstuff.net/images/IBM-e-business-in-theCity.jpg ),瀏覽日期2012/05/18,依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。 22 Wikipedia The e-Business Environment Business to Consumer Business Efficiency ►Communication ►Process Automation ►Knowledge Management ►Building Brands ►e-commerce ►Customer Service ►Relationship Marketing The INTERnet INTRAnet e-business Business to Business ►Supply Chain ►Time to Market ►Communication 23 EXTRAnet The Application of Web Technology In Three Areas : Intranet, Intranets & Extranet Evolution of e-Business EDI EIS Distribution Planning Scheduling MRP MRP II Payroll HR GL AP FMIS AR 1970s 24 1980s 1990s Source: Business Online 2000s Evolution of e-Business EDI e-Commerce EIS BI CRM Distribution Planning APS/SCM e-Business Scheduling MRP MRP II Payroll HR ERP GL AP FMIS AR 1970s 25 1980s 1990s Source: Business Online 2000s e-Business Architecture Business Value Business Strategy e-Commerce S U P P L I E R S Knowledge Management Supply Chain Management Enterprise Resource Planning Customer Relationship Management Business Intelligent e-Business Enabling Web+IT Integration Technology Value 26 Source: IBM C U S T O M E R S Basic Evaluation Framework ► How does business on-line impact revenues? ► How does business on-line impact costs? – Facility (site + personnel) – Inventory – Transportation – Information ► Should the e-commerce channel position itself for efficiency or responsiveness? ► Who in the supply chain can extract most value? ► Is the value to existing players or new entrants? 27 The Computer Industry: Dell On-line Procurement cycles PUSH PROCESSES Customer Order and Manufacturing Cycle PULL PROCESSES Customer Order Arrives 28 Potential Opportunities Exploited by Dell ► Revenue opportunities – – – – – – 24 hour access for order placement Direct sales Providing customization and large selection information Flexibility on pricing and promotion Faster time to market Efficient funds transfer - reduce working capital ► Revenue negatives – Longer response time than store and no help with selection 29 Wikimedia Commons Potential Opportunities Exploited by Dell ► Cost opportunities – – – – – – Direct sales eliminating intermediary Customer participation: Call center & catalog costs Information sharing in supply chain Reduce facility costs Geographical centralization and reduced inventories Postpone product differentiation to after order is placed using product platforms and common components ► Outbound transportation costs increase 30 Wikimedia Commons Opportunities ► Significant, but must be combined with component commonality, and build to order. Must move product customization to pull phase of supply chain and hold inventories as common components during the push phase ► Opportunity most significant for new, hard to forecast products ► Complements strength of existing retail channels 31 版權聲明 頁碼 3 32 作品 授權條件 作者/來源 本作品轉載自CoolCLIPS網站 (http://dir.coolclips.com/Business/Metaphors_A_to_D/Agreement_and_Greeting/Sh aking_Hands/business_women_shaking_hands_peop4003.html),瀏覽日期 2012/2/17。依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。 3 本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊,依據Microsoft 服務合約及著 作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。 3 本作品轉載自Codigofonte.net網站(http://www.codigofonte.net/galeria-deimagens/cliparts/visualizar/FABRICA1.gif),瀏覽日期2012/2/18。依據著作權法 第46、52、65條合理使用。 3 本作品轉載自Codigofonte.net網站(http://www.codigofonte.net/galeria-deimagens/cliparts/visualizar/PREDIO2.jpg),瀏覽日期2012/2/18。依據著作權法第 46、52、65條合理使用。 3 本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊,依據Microsoft 服務合約及著 作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。 3 臺灣大學 郭瑞祥老師 5 本作品轉載自Microsoft Office 2007多媒體藝廊,依據Microsoft 服務合約及著 作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。 版權聲明 頁碼 授權條件 作者/來源 22 Wikipedia 本作品轉載自http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Original_IBM_Logo.png,瀏覽日 期2011/12/28。 22 IBM e-business in the City (no longer available) 本作品轉載自(http://www.cleverstuff.net/images/IBM-e-business-in-the-City.jpg ), 瀏覽日期2012/05/18,依據著作權法第46、52、65條合理使用。 29, 30 33 作品 Wikimedia Commons 本作品轉載自http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dell_Logo.png,瀏覽日期 2011/12/28。