Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
•Rise in national per capital income •No sustained economic development can occur without economic growth. Economic Growth Economic Development •Improvements in health, education and other aspects of human welfare •Distribution of wealth within a country •Structural change Economic Growth Lucas (1988) “By the problem of development I mean simply the problem of accounting for the observed pattern, across countries and across time, in levels and rates of growth of per capita income. This may seem too narrow a definition, and perhaps it is, but thinking about income patterns will necessarily involve us in thinking about many other aspects of societies too, so I would suggest that we withhold judgment on the scope of this definition until we have a clearer idea of where it leads us.” Streeten (1994) “[W]e should never lose sight of the ultimate purpose of the exercise, to treat men and women as ends, to improve the human condition, to enlarge people’s choices…[A] unity of interests would exist if there were rigid links between economic production (as measured by income per head) and human development (reflected by human indicators such as life expectancy or literacy, or achievements such as self-respect, not easily measured). But these two sets of indicators are not very closely related.” Streeten – there may not be a correlation between economic growth and human development Economic growth Human development: life expectancy, literacy, self respect Lucas – it is the power of aggregate forces of economic growth that lead to human development. Economic growth Human development indicators: health, life expectancy, literacy Per-capita Gross National Product (Gross National Income) the per-head value of final goods and services produced by the people of a country over a given year ◦ GNP excludes intermediate goods ◦ GNP includes output produced by citizens who live outside its borders Per-capita Gross Domestic Product the per-head value of final goods and services produced within a nation’s boarders over a given year ◦ GDP includes intermediate goods ◦ GDP excludes output produced by citizens who live outside its borders Comparing GNP (GNI) vs GDP ◦ Ex: Angola's national income is derived from oil, drilled by multinational companies. Profits count toward Angola’s GDP, but not GNP In 2009 Angola’s GDP was 12% higher than GNP. ◦ In most countries the differences are small. ◦ GDP is most widely used measure What is left out of both measures? ◦ The informal sector and subsistence agriculture is typically not included or poorly estimated. ◦ Not all household production is accounted for. Problem: 164 official national currencies A shortcut: use the market exchange rate between 2 countries ◦ The Exchange Rate Method: Each country’s currency is converted into a common currency (usually US$) and divided by the country’s population. Ex: India’s GDP per capita in 2009 was about 57,000 rupees. Converted into USD is about US$1,160 Problem: 1 USD goes much further in India than in the US. You can buy 40 haircuts in Mumbai for 1 haircut in the US. India’s true per capita income must be higher. The Exchange Rate Method ◦ In World Bank Data: Data are converted from national currency to current U.S.$ using the World Bank Atlas method. ◦ This involves using a 3-year average of exchange rates to smooth the effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations. Problems: ◦ A significant part of national income comes from non-traded goods (haircut, taxi ride, ect.). ◦ Exchange rates are determined by the flow of traded goods/services. ◦ GDP converted into USD by market exchange rates gives a misleading comparison on income levels if 𝑃𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑠 𝑃𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑠 differs between countries. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): ◦ Pick a set of prices for all goods/services in one country and use that same set of prices to value goods/services of all countries being compared. Ex: haircut and taxi ride are assigned the same value in NY and Mexico City. ◦ Idea: How much money is needed to purchase the same basket of goods in 2 countries? It is the Purchasing Power of a country’s currency required to purchase the same basket of goods/services that a USD will buy in the US. ◦ International Comparison Program (ICP): International prices are constructed for large baskets of goods & services (400-700 goods) by averaging prices (expressed, say in US$ - Phome/PUS) for each good over all countries. For high income countries ratio is close to 1: at similar levels of income, Pnon-traded is similar across countries As average income levels fall, the exchange rate method understates GDP. Economics of Development, 7th Edition Copyright © 2013, W.W. Norton & Company WDI, 2017 Economic growth Human development: life expectancy, literacy, self respect Economic growth Human development indicators: health, life expectancy, literacy If economic growth and economic development are not the same thing, how to define development? Amartya Sen: goal of development is to expand capabilities of people to live the lives they choose to lead. What determines capabilities? Need to understand how different factors prevent people from converting income into “the capability to live a minimally acceptable life” ◦ Personal heterogeneities: age, proneness to illness, disabilities ◦ Environmental diversities: shelter, clothing, fuel ◦ Variations in social climate: crime, civil unrest, violence ◦ Differences in relative deprivation: extent to which poverty reduces capabilities to take part in the community ◦ Point: fundamental shift in thinking from production of goods to a focus on human lives. Start with Income Distribution Per Capita GDP (PPP, current intl $)* 15,839 14,450 15,595 16,340 Botswana China Costa Rica Thailand Share of poorest 20% Share of richest 20% 3** 5^ 4^^ 7’ 65 48 54 45 Source: World Development Indicators Notes: *2015, **2009,^2012, ^^2014, ‘2013 1990 Botswana China Costa Rica Thailand 2014 Botswana China Costa Rica Thailand Life Expectancy at birth (years) Expected years of schooling Mean years of schooling GNI per capita (2011 PPP $) 62.7 69 75.6 70.3 9.8 8.8 9.8 8.4 5.5 4.8 6.9 4.6 7845 1519 7079 6263 64.5 75.8 79.4 74.4 12.5 13.1 13.9 13.5 8.9 7.5 8.4 7.3 16646 12,547 13,413 13,323 Source: UN Human Development Report, 2015 Human Development Index (HDI) ◦ Developed by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) HDI ranks all countries on a scale of 0 (lowest human development) to 1 (highest development) (1/3) longevity (living a long and healthy life). Proxy is: life expectancy at birth (1/3) acquiring knowledge. two proxies are: expected years of schooling and mean years of schooling (1/3) standard of living. Proxy is real per capita income adjusted for the differing PPP of each country’s currency Per Capita GDP (PPP, current intl $)* 15,839 14,450 15,595 16,340 Botswana China Costa Rica Thailand Share of poorest 20% Share of richest 20% 3** 5^ 4^^ 7’ 65 48 54 45 Source: World Development Indicators Notes: *2015, **2009,^2012, ^^2014, ‘2013 1990 Botswana China Costa Rica Thailand 2014 Botswana China Costa Rica Thailand Life Expectancy at birth (years) Expected years of schooling Mean years of schooling GNI per capita (2011 PPP $) HDI Value 62.7 69 75.6 70.3 9.8 8.8 9.8 8.4 5.5 4.8 6.9 4.6 7845 1519 7079 6263 .584 .501 .652 .572 64.5 75.8 79.4 74.4 12.5 13.1 13.9 13.5 8.9 7.5 8.4 7.3 16646 12,547 13,413 13,323 .698 .727 .766 .726 Source: UN Human Development Report, 2015 HDI Rank of 188 countries 106 90 69 93 Source: UN Human Development Report, Country Profiles2015 Indicator Agriculture as a % of GDP Rural Population as a % of total Raw Agricultural Materials as a % of Total Exports Low Income Countries 31% 70% 9% Middle Income Countries 9% 49% 1.33 High Income Countries 1.5% 18% 1.5 36 9 54 19 7.5 30 11 8 4.5 56.5 84 98 Birth Rates (per 1000) Death Rates (per 1000) Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births) Adult Literacy Rates Source: World Development Indicators, 2017 The Sustainable Development Goals