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DSS & Warehousing Systems Chapter 11 Efrem Mallach Prepared by Luvai Motiwalla 1 Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Expert Systems 2 Introduction Expert systems and DSS Confidence factors Fuzzy logic Expert system development tools Choosing a good expert system application Finding the expert(s) Expert systems and DSS Pros and cons of expert systems Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Introduction 3 Artificial Intelligence:The field of artificial intelligence encompasses several areas,of these expert systems are the most useful in DSS overall. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Expert Systems and DSS 4 Expert systems are not an alternative to DSS. Rather, expert system,s are a technology that is often useful in constructing a DSS. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Confidence Factors 5 What are confidence factors? Where confidence factors come from? Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Fuzzy Logic 6 Fuzzy logic is an approach to dealing with imprecise knowledge in a precise way. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Expert System Development Toolscont’d 7 Expert systems are usually developed using preprogrammed shells. A shell provides an inference engine and a user interface. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Expert System Development Tools 8 Languages: There are several reasons one might develop an expert system without using a commercial shell. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Choosing a Good Expert System Application-cont’d 9 It is convenient to divide the selection characteristics into (A) the characteristics of the problem to be solved Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Choosing a Good Expert System Application 10 (B) the characteristics of the human experts who solve the problem. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Finding the Expert(s) 11 At least one competent, willing, and cooperative expert must be available to develop an expert system. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Expert Systems and DSS 12 Expert systems reproduce the reasoning process a human decision maker would go through in reaching a decision, diagnosing a problem or suggesting a course of action. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Pros and Cons of Expert Systems 13 Expert systems can provide substantial benefits in some DSS. At the same time, no tool is perfect for all applications.It always has its advantages and drawbacks. Irwin/McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2000 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.