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An International Comparison
of Generational Accounts
Jaime Álvarez Bandrés
Ignacio Establés Susán
Jose Antonio Mairena Peral
Index
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1.What is the Generational accounting?
2. Methodology and Assumptions
3. The Demographic Transition
4. Generational Accounts of Living Generations
5. Imbalances in Generational Policy
6. Generational Accounting versus Deficit Accounting
7. Sensitivity of the Results
8. Sources of Generational Imbalances
9. Restoring Generational Balance?
10. Summary and Conclusion
1.What is the Generational
accounting?
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It is a method of accounting for redistribution of lifetime
tax burdens across generations from social insurance,
including social security and social health insurance .
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For example, if a fall in labor-force growth from an earlier
fall in the birth rate is projected to increase the proportion
of retirees to the labor force, generational accounting
might examine different projected changes in taxes or
program benefits to finance the change.
1.What is the Generational
accounting?
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Generational angst-the fear that we are bequeathing
enormous fiscal bills to our children-is global,
affecting countries as diverse as Japan and Brazil.
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Generational accounting, as we have seen, helps
countries confront, although not necessarily allay,
their generational anxieties.
1.What is the Generational
accounting?
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For most of the 17 countries considered in this book,
generational accounting’s message is highly unpleasant.
The reason is that most of these countries are running
fiscal policies that if left unchanged will sentence their
children to sky-high rates of net taxation.
2. Methodology and Assumptions
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As detailed in point 3, generational accounts are defined as
the present value of taxes paid minus transfer payments
received (net taxes) that individuals of different annual
cohorts (generations) pay on average over their remaining
lifetimes.
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Generational accounts are based on the government’s
intertemporal budget constraint, which implies that the
sum of future government consumption spending has to
be equal to the sum of all future net taxes (taxes minus
transfers all in present value terms) plus current
government net wealth.
2. Methodology and Assumptions
If future generations face, on a growth-adjusted basis,
a higher lifetime net tax burden than do current newborns,
current policy is neither sustainable nor generationally
balanced.
However, in this case, generational balance can be
achieved by reducing the fiscal burden facing current
generations rather than the other way around.
Generational accounting depends on various
assumptions, in particular about future economic
developments and demographic trends.
2. Methodology and Assumptions
The authors who wrote these point chose the data to be
used in their accounts. They also produced their accounts
themselves, using, in most cases, the original generational
accounting software package developed by Alan Auerbach,
Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence Kotlikoff.
We present generational accounts treating educational
expenditure both as a government purchase (case A) and as
transfer payments (case B).
3. The Demographic Transition
4. Generational Accounts of Living
Generations.
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When people are young, they receive transfers (e.g., child
benefits or educational allowances) and pay consumption
taxes.
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During their working lives, they continue to pay
consumption taxes but also pay taxes on their labor and
capital income in the form of personal income taxes and
payroll taxes.
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The absolute amount of net transfers declines during
retirement as the remaining lifetime shortens.
4. Generational Accounts of Living
Generations.
4. Generational Accounts of Living
Generations.
4. Generational Accounts of Living
Generations.
5. Imbalances in Generational Policy
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The comparison of the generational account facing
newborns with that facing future generations indicates the
degree of imbalance in generational policy.
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Take the United States, the difference between these
numbers is the absolute imbalance.
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Japan, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and
Belgium have larger percentage imbalances than the
United States under cases A and B.
5. Imbalances in Generational Policy
 The country with the largest absolute imbalances is
Japan.
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The German, Italian, Dutch, and Brazilian imbalances are
also grave.
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Australia, Denmark, and France have substantial
imbalances that leave their descendents facing 30 to 50
percent higher lifetime net tax rates.
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Canada appears to be essentially in generational balance.
5. Imbalances in Generational Policy
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The remaining three countries-New Zealand, Thailand, and
Sweden-have negative imbalances.
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Australia is another country whose recent policy measures
have had a significant impact on its generational accounts.
6. Generational Accounting vs. Deficit
Accounting
 It is interesting to compare generational accounting’s
assessment of fiscal sustainability with that suggested by
official deficits and debts.
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In a theoretical perspective,there is no intrinsic connection
between nations’ generational imbalances and their deficit
or debt positions…
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…but this finding should be of interest to those who
believe deficit or debt levels represent useful criteria for
assessing a country’s fiscal responsibility.
Official defficit and debt as a share of
GDP
6. Generational Accounting vs. Deficit
Accounting
 Table records government deficits, primary deficits levels
of gross debt and levels of net debt for our 17 countries.
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Although Japan has the largest and Norway one of the
largest generational imbalances, the two countries have
the lowest ratios of net debt to GDP.
6. Generational Accounting vs. Deficit
Accounting
 International Monetary Fund and the Europea Union have
different estrategies.
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IMF uses budget deficit targets in determining structural
adjustment policies.
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UE has adopted a deficit target as the principal
requirement for membership in its proposed single
currency monetary union.
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European Monetary union is worth bearing the following in
mind:
6. Generational Accounting vs. Defficit
Accounting
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Imposing higher net taxes on current generations by
printing money.
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Countries addressing the roots of the problems by
implementing major fiscal reforms.
7. Sensitivity of the results
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Estimates of generational accounts are based on the
assumption that except for demographic influences, no
other fundamental changes in the economy occur.
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But labor supply could increase if labor participation
increases.
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This would raise labor tax revenues and reduce transfers.
7. Sensitivity of the results
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If population aging were slower than assumed here the
imbalance against future generations would be reduced.
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This would result from a larger number of taxpayers
available to help government expenditures.
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The results are also sensitive to assumptions about
productivity growth and the discount rate:
7. Sensitivity of the results
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For a given discount rate, higher productivity growth
increases the absolute amounts of net tax payments of
both existing and future generations.
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For a given productivity growth rate, a higher discount rate
reduces these present value amounts.
Table 4.6 Sensitivity to Growth and
Discount Rates, Case A
Summary of Table 4.6
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The absolute sizes of the accounts of current newborns as
well as future generations are fairly sensitive and..
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… the values of both variables move in the same direction
in response to changes in the rates of productivity growth
and interest.
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Consequently, the absolute generational imbalance in
many countries is rather invariant to the choice of these
rates.
Summary of Table 4.6
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Finally, the sensitivity of the generational accounts to
growth and interest rate assumptions depends on the
country in question.
8. Sources Of Generational Imbalances
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How much of the imbalance in generational policy in the
various countries can be traced to the country’s
demographic transition?
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And how much can be traced to its official net debt?
To know the answer:
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The demographics experiment.
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The zero-debt experiment.
Table 4.8: Sources of generational
imbalances.
Results of the experiments:
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Demographics make a very substantial difference to the
imbalance in almost all of the countries: demographics are
very important.
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Eliminating the government official net debt has a range of
impacts on generational imbalances: it is not so important.
The ageing of world population:
The ageing of world population
9. Restoring Generational Balance?
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It represents an economic imperative.
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Countries that take no action to achieve generational
balance will find their generational imbalances worsening
over time.
Two ways of eliminating generational
imbalances by the government:
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Force those now alive to pay higher net taxes by raising
their taxes.
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Cutting their transfer payments or reduce the time path of
its spending.
Table 4.9: Alternative ways to achieve
generational balance.
About table 4.9:
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Restoring the balance between newborns and future
generations would require immediate and permanent big
cuts in government purchases in most of the countries.
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But a few of them need to raise government spending
since their baseline generational imbalances are negative.
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How one allocates educational expenditures does not
matter much to the adjustments needed to achieve
generational balance.
Considerations:
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Combinations of the policy instruments could achieve the
same end, and less would be required of any single policy
instrument.
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Larger adjustments are needed if the policies under
consideration are not enacted immediately.
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Different types of adjustments would affect different
currently living generations differently.
10. Summary and conclussions
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Policymakers take official budget deficits and debts as
their primary fiscal indicators, and they are not.
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The longer a country waits to adjust, the more painful the
ultimate adjustment will be. Adjusting too little in the short
run is a form of waiting too long to adjust.
Shocking results:
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The world‘s leading industrial powers (United States,
Japan and Germany) all have severe imbalances in their
generational policies.
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Unless they do something they will face dramatically
higher rates of lifetime net taxation.
Situation of the countries studied:
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Japan, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Brazil have
extreme imbalances.
The United States, Norway, Portugal, Argentina and
Belgium have severe imbalances.
Australia, Denmark and France have substantial
imbalances.
Canada appears to be essentially in generational balance.
New Zealand, Thailand and Sweden have negative
imbalances.
Final conclusions:
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For most of the studied countries, what they need to do to
solve the problem will be very unpleasant.
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Although each country may respond differently, those with
sizable generational imbalances all need to act
immediately.
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The less those now alive pay, the larger the amounts their
descendants will pay.
THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!