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Status of the NWP-System
& based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM
COSMO I7
7 km
BCs from IFS
Nudging
CINECA
COSMO I2
2.8 km
BCs from
COSMO I7
Interpolated
from
COSMO I7
CINECA
COSMO (esuite):
test suite based on COSMO I7
COSMO bk
7 km
BCs from
GME
COSMO
LEPS
10 km
16 members
CINECA
Nudging
ARPA SIM
cluster
Planned developments of NWP-System
based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM
COSMO I7
7 km
BCs from IFS
Nudging
CINECA
COSMO I2
2.8 km
BCs from
COSMO I7
Nudging
CINECA
COSMO (esuite):
test suite based on COSMO I7 & COSMO I2
CINECA
COSMO bk
7 km
BCs from
GME
Nudging
ARPA SIM
cluster
COSMO
LEPS
7 km
16 members
Larger integration domain
Planned developments of NWP-System
based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM
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Introduction of the DWD soil moisture analysis scheme
Dynamical database of physiographic parameters
(leaf area index)
Adoption of the multi-layer soil model
Assimilation of pseudo-profiles derived from satellite
by the 1-D var technique
&

Implementation of the prototype for a Rapid
Updating Cycle suite at 2.8 km hor. Res.
Soil Moisture Analysis
Uses T_2m temperatures to adjust soil moisture during a 24 hours integration time.
The scheme was firstly developed by Martin Lange (DWD)
Rapidly Updating Cycle
Leaf Area Index DYNAMICAL DATASET
MODIS estimates of LAI are used to update daily the input to
the TERRA Scheme
Example of variability introduced by the use of the MODIS dataset compared
to a FIX LAI Assumption.
Full validation available at: C. Knote, G Bonafe and F . Di Giuseppe The specification of Leaf Area Index for
use in mesoscale weather prediction system. Monthly Weather Review, Submitted
Future Developments & Contributions to
COSMO
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Code management
Newsletter editing
Coordination of WG3
Participation to Expert Team EPS
Verification
Data assimilation
Ensemble Forecasting

Variational Assimilation

SATELLITE
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RADAR
People involved: Francesca Di Giuseppe, Virginia Poli, Davide Cesari,
Giovanni Bonafè
Variational Assimilation
Same framework for satellite and radar observations:
Convert observations (Radiances and/or rain rates (RR)) in profiles of temperature and humidity
and nudge them as “pseudo”-observations.
Model Space
Background
xb=(Tb, qb, psb)
Jb
 x Jb
Minimization
xJ
Initialization
x=xb
no
x=(T, q, ps)
xJ  0?
yes
 x J0
Analysis
xa=x
J0
∇ obs J 0
Observation Space
Data Assimilation
Example of MSG assimilation
NO impact: too few data assimilated
GOOD impact in reducing over predicted precipitation
Assimilation of
RR is able to
dry off
precipitation
and also to
create
structures in
the right place
Cumulated precipitation at +24hr forecast time for two cases. The two simulations have
been performed with and without the assimilation of SEVIRI data. Data from the rain
gauges network on the far right. The areas underlined with red circles are
regions where the forecast showed poor performance.
Data Assimilation
Example of RR assimilation
Very encouraging results!
Control run – Forecast +1 hour
Experimental run – Forecast +1 hour
Assimilation of
RR is able to
dry off
precipitation
and also to
create
structures in
the right place
Shades: Radar
observation
Control run – Forecast +6 hours
Data Assimilation
Experimental run – Forecast +6 hours
Contours: COSMOI2 forecasted RR
Other developments planned on
COSMO LEPS
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increase of horizontal mesh-size from 10 to 7 km:
enlarge the integration domain to the north (to cover part of the Baltic sea)
and to the east (to cover all Greek islands);
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use the soil moisture analysis fields provided by DWD
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use a better snow analysis
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test the impact of extending the cluster analysis so as to consider not only
ECMWF EPS, but also UKMO MOGREPS as global ensemble providing
initial and boundary conditions;
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develop coding of COSMO-LEPS output files in GRIB2 format;
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migration to the new machine;
Ensemble
Other possible developments on COSMO
LEPS also included in the PP CONSENS
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Ensemble
Calibration
Test the impact of other perturbations based on the outcome of the
COSMO-SREPS investigations
Test COSMO-LEPS nested on the under-development ECMWF EDA
during MAP D-PHASE period.
Developments of COSMO SREPS included
in the PP CONSENS
The system is presently running quasi-regularly at ECMWF, using the Billing
Units provided by some COSMO Countries.
COSMO-SREPS provides initial and boundary conditions to the convectionresolving ensemble under development at DWD (COSMO-DE-EPS) and it is
used to compute a flow-dependent B-matrix for a test version of the 1d-Var
assimilation of satellite data under development at ARPA-SIM.
The main developments of the system planned for the next year , which are
also part of the PP CONSENS, are:

to implement a greater number of parameter perturbations, derived from the
results obtained within the COSMO-SREPS Priority Project;

consolidate the suite availability by implementing a back-up suite
completely managed by COSMO;

move from 10 to 7 km horizontal resolution, depending of the availability of
computing resources.