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LEGACIES, LAGS, AND SHIFTING BASELINES: ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW RESTORATION IN A CHANGED AND CHANGING WORLD Ross M. Thompson, Allison King, Richard M. Kingsford, Ralph Mac Nally and N. LeRoy Poff (CRICOS) #00212K Vörösmarty, et al. "Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity." Nature 467.7315 (2010): 555-561. (CRICOS) #00212K Zarfl et al (2014) (CRICOS) #00212K (CRICOS) #00212K 1M km2 = 2x (CRICOS) #00212K Sustainable Rivers Audit 2008 (CRICOS) #00212K Sustainable Rivers Audit 2008 (CRICOS) #00212K 2750 GL (CRICOS) #00212K (CRICOS) #00212K What are the factors that determine the timing and magnitude of responses to environmental flows? (CRICOS) #00212K TIME ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Reporting rate Crinia spp. Limnodynastes spp. Litoria spp. (CRICOS) #00212K Period (CRICOS) #00212K LEGACIES = where the antecedent conditions determine whether a response is detectable to the management intervention (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Legacy effects TIME (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Legacy effects TIME (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Legacy effects TIME 18 (CRICOS) #00212K Stewardson et al. 2012, Short term intervention monitoring on the Lower Goulburn River 19 (CRICOS) #00212K Stewardson et al. 2012, Short term intervention monitoring on the Lower Goulburn River LAGS = where there is a delay until a response to a management intervention is seen (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Lags : TIME (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Lags : life history constraints TIME (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Lags : disturbance effects TIME (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Lags : numeric responses TIME (CRICOS) #00212K Watts et al. 2015, Long term intervention monitoring on the Edwards-Wakool River Watts et al. 2015, Long term intervention monitoring on the Edwards-Wakool River SPAWNING RESPONSE Yr1 Yr2 (CRICOS) #00212K SHIFTING BASELINES = where there is an underlying change in condition due to the effects of something other than the management intervention (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION Shifting baselines TIME (CRICOS) #00212K What are the factors that determine the timing and magnitude of responses to environmental flows? A complex interaction between – Existing ecological condition • Antecedent flow conditions – Timescale of taxa response relative to flows • Life history traits – Underlying trends in condition (CRICOS) #00212K • Landuse impacts, climate change etc etc (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION (CRICOS) #00212K ECOLOGICAL CONDITION What are the factors that determine the timing and magnitude of responses to environmental flows? A complex interaction between – Existing ecological condition • Antecedent flow conditions – Timescale of taxa response relative to flows • Life history traits – Underlying trends in condition (CRICOS) #00212K • Landuse impacts, climate change etc etc QUESTIONS?? LEGACIES, LAGS, AND SHIFTING BASELINES: ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW RESTORATION IN A CHANGED AND CHANGING WORLD Ross M. Thompson, Allison King, Richard M. Kingsford, Ralph Mac Nally and N. LeRoy Poff Session: S03 Global Perspectives on Environmental Flows Date: Wednesday, May 25, 2016 Time: 4:30 PM Presentation Room: 314 E-mail: [email protected]
