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EC 421 STATISTICAL COMMUNICATION THEORY Instructor: Dr. Heba A. Shaban Lecture # 2 BINOMIAL RANDOM VARIABLES Class of discrete random variables Binomial -- results from a binomial experiment. = A binomial random variable is defined as X=number of successes in the n trials of a binomial experiment. Conditions for a binomial experiment: 1. There are n “trials” where n is determined in advance and is not a RANDOM value. 2. Two possible outcomes on each trial, called “success” and “failure” and denoted S and F F. 3. Outcomes are independent from one trial to the next. 4. Probability of a “success”, denoted by p, remains same from one trial to the next. Probability of “failure” is 1 – p. 2 1 FINDING BINOMIAL PROBABILITIES P X k n! nk p k 1 p k!n k ! for k = 0, 1, 2, …, n E Example: l Probability P b bili off Two T Wins Wi in i Three Th Plays Pl p = probability win = 0.2; plays of game are independent. X = number of wins in three plays. What is P(X = 2)? P X 2 3! 3 2 .2 2 1 .2 2!3 2 ! 3(.2) 2 (.8)1 0.096 3 EXPECTED VALUE AND STANDARD DEVIATION FOR A BINOMIAL RANDOM VARIABLE For a binomial random variable X based on n trials and success probability p, Mean E X np Standard deviation np 1 p 4 2 EXAMPLE: CRV - TIME SPENT WAITING FOR BUS Bus arrives at stop every 10 minutes. Person arrives at stop at a random time, how long will s/he have to wait? X = waiting time until next bus arrives. X is a continuous random variable over 0 to 10 minutes. Note: Height is 0.10 so total area under the curve is (0.10)(10) = 1 This is an example of a Uniform random variable density curve This is a uniform distribution, thus area of rectangle = w x h (there is a correspondence between area and probability 5 EXAMPLE: WAITING FOR BUS (CONT) What is the probability of waiting time X was in the interval from 5 to 7 minutes? Probability = area under curve between 5 and 7 = (base)(height) = (2)(.1) = .2 P(a ≤ X ≤ b) is the area under the density curve over th interval the i t l between b t values a and b 6 3 NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLES If a population of measurements follows a normal curve, curve and if X is the measurement for a randomly selected individual from that population, then X is said to be a normal random variable X is also said to have a normal distribution Any normal random variable can be completely characterized by its mean, m, and standard deviation, s. 7 NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS (OF NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLES) Just as there are many y different uniform distributions (with different ranges of values), there are also many different normal distributions, with each one depending on 2 parameters: the population mean and population SD. The standard normal distribution is a normal probability distribution that has a mean = 0 and a SD = 1.0, and the total area under its density curve = 1.0 8 4 EXAMPLE NORMAL CURVES (HEIGHTS; MALES; FEMALES) Women: µ = 63.6 = 2.5 Men: µ = 69.0 = 2.8 63.6 69.0 Height (inches) 9 STANDARD SCORES The formula for converting any value x to a zz-score score is z Value Mean x Standard deviation A z-score z score measures the number of standard deviations that a value falls from the mean. 10 5 EXAMPLE STANDARD SCORES FOR HEIGHT For a population of college women, the zscore corresponding to a height of 62 inches is z Value Mean 62 65 1.11 Standard deviation 2 .7 This z-score tells Thi t ll us that th t 62 inches i h i 1.11 is 1 11 standard t d d deviations below the mean height for this population. 11 EXAMPLE: PROBABILITY Z > 1.31 P(Z > 1.31) = 1 – P(Z 1.31) = 1 – .9049 = .0951 12 6 EXAMPLE: PROBABILITY Z IS BETWEEN –2.59 AND 1.31 P(-2.59 Z 1.31) = P(Z ( 1.31)) – P(Z ( -2.59)) = .9049 – .0048 = .9001 13 STANDARD NORMAL (Z) DISTRIBUTION z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 .0000 .0398 .0793 .1179 .1554 .1915 .2257 .2580 .2881 .3159 .3413 .3643 .3849 .4032 .4192 .4332 .4452 .4554 .4641 .4713 .4772 .4821 .4861 .4893 .4918 .4938 .4953 .4965 .4974 .4981 .4987 .0040 .0438 .0832 .1217 .1591 .1950 .2291 .2611 .2910 .3186 .3438 .3665 .3869 .4049 .4207 .4345 .4463 .4564 .4649 .4719 .4778 .4826 .4864 .4896 .4920 .4940 .4955 .4966 .4975 .4982 .4987 .0080 .0478 .0871 .1255 .1628 .1985 .2324 .2642 .2939 .3212 .3461 .3686 .3888 .4066 .4222 .4357 .4474 .4573 .4656 .4726 .4783 .4830 .4868 .4898 .4922 .4941 .4956 .4967 .4976 .4982 .4987 .0120 .0517 .0910 .1293 .1664 .2019 .2357 .2673 .2967 .3238 .3485 .3708 .3907 .4082 .4236 .4370 .4484 .4582 .4664 .4732 .4788 .4834 .4871 .4901 .4925 .4943 .4957 .4968 .4977 .4983 .4988 .0160 .0557 .0948 .1331 .1700 .2054 .2389 .2704 .2995 .3264 .3508 .3729 .3925 .4099 .4251 .4382 .4495 .4591 .4671 .4738 .4793 .4838 .4875 .4904 .4927 .4945 .4959 .4969 .4977 .4984 .4988 .0199 .0596 .0987 .1368 .1736 .2088 .2422 .2734 .3023 .3289 .3531 .3749 .3944 .4115 .4265 .4394 .4505 .4599 .4678 .4744 .4798 .4842 .4878 .4906 .4929 .4946 .4960 .4970 .4978 .4984 .4989 .0239 .0636 .1026 .1406 .1772 .2123 .2454 .2764 .3051 .3315 .3554 .3770 .3962 .4131 .4279 .4406 .4515 .4608 .4686 .4750 .4803 .4846 .4881 .4909 .4931 .4948 .4961 .4971 .4979 .4985 .4989 .0279 .0675 .1064 .1443 .1808 .2157 .2486 .2794 .3078 .3340 .3577 .3790 .3980 .4147 .4292 .4418 .4525 .4616 .4693 .4756 .4808 .4850 .4884 .4911 .4932 .4949 .4962 .4972 .4979 .4985 .4989 .0319 .0714 .1103 .1480 .1844 .2190 .2517 .2823 .3106 .3365 .3599 .3810 .3997 .4162 .4306 .4429 .4535 .4625 .4699 .4761 .4812 .4854 .4887 .4913 .4934 .4951 .4963 .4973 .4980 .4986 .4990 14 .0359 .0753 .1141 .1517 .1879 .2224 .2549 .2852 .3133 .3389 .3621 .3830 .4015 .4177 .4319 .4441 .4545 .4633 .4706 .4767 .4817 .4857 .4890 .4916 .4936 .4952 .4964 .4974 .4981 .4986 .4990 * * 7 EXAMPLE: If thermometers have an average (mean) reading of 0 degrees and a standard deviation of 1 degree for freezing water and if one thermometer is randomly selected, find the probability that it reads freezing water between 0 degrees and 1.58 degrees. P ( 0 < x < 1.58 ) = 0 1.58 STANDARD NORMAL (Z) DISTRIBUTION z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 .0000 .0398 .0793 .1179 .1554 .1915 .2257 .2580 .2881 .3159 .3413 .3643 .3849 .4032 .4192 .4332 .4452 .4554 .4641 .4713 .4772 .4821 .4861 .4893 .4918 .4938 .4953 .4965 .4974 .4981 .4987 .0040 .0438 .0832 .1217 .1591 .1950 .2291 .2611 .2910 .3186 .3438 .3665 .3869 .4049 .4207 .4345 .4463 .4564 .4649 .4719 .4778 .4826 .4864 .4896 .4920 .4940 .4955 .4966 .4975 .4982 .4987 .0080 .0478 .0871 .1255 .1628 .1985 .2324 .2642 .2939 .3212 .3461 .3686 .3888 .4066 .4222 .4357 .4474 .4573 .4656 .4726 .4783 .4830 .4868 .4898 .4922 .4941 .4956 .4967 .4976 .4982 .4987 .0120 .0517 .0910 .1293 .1664 .2019 .2357 .2673 .2967 .3238 .3485 .3708 .3907 .4082 .4236 .4370 .4484 .4582 .4664 .4732 .4788 .4834 .4871 .4901 .4925 .4943 .4957 .4968 .4977 .4983 .4988 .0160 .0557 .0948 .1331 .1700 .2054 .2389 .2704 .2995 .3264 .3508 .3729 .3925 .4099 .4251 .4382 .4495 .4591 .4671 .4738 .4793 .4838 .4875 .4904 .4927 .4945 .4959 .4969 .4977 .4984 .4988 .0199 .0596 .0987 .1368 .1736 .2088 .2422 .2734 .3023 .3289 .3531 .3749 .3944 .4115 .4265 .4394 .4505 .4599 .4678 .4744 .4798 .4842 .4878 .4906 .4929 .4946 .4960 .4970 .4978 .4984 .4989 .0239 .0636 .1026 .1406 .1772 .2123 .2454 .2764 .3051 .3315 .3554 .3770 .3962 .4131 .4279 .4406 .4515 .4608 .4686 .4750 .4803 .4846 .4881 .4909 .4931 .4948 .4961 .4971 .4979 .4985 .4989 .0279 .0675 .1064 .1443 .1808 .2157 .2486 .2794 .3078 .3340 .3577 .3790 .3980 .4147 .4292 .4418 .4525 .4616 .4693 .4756 .4808 .4850 .4884 .4911 .4932 .4949 .4962 .4972 .4979 .4985 .4989 .0319 .0714 .1103 .1480 .1844 .2190 .2517 .2823 .3106 .3365 .3599 .3810 .3997 .4162 .4306 .4429 .4535 .4625 .4699 .4761 .4812 .4854 .4887 .4913 .4934 .4951 .4963 .4973 .4980 .4986 .4990 16 .0359 .0753 .1141 .1517 .1879 .2224 .2549 .2852 .3133 .3389 .3621 .3830 .4015 .4177 .4319 .4441 .4545 .4633 .4706 .4767 .4817 .4857 .4890 .4916 .4936 .4952 .4964 .4974 .4981 .4986 .4990 * * 8 USING SYMMETRY TO FIND THE AREA TO THE LEFT OF THE MEAN Because of symmetry, these areas are equal. (a) (b) 0.4925 0.4925 0 z = - 2.43 0 Equal distance away from 0 z = 2.43 NOTE: Although a z-score can be negative, the area under the curve (or the corresponding probability) can never be negative. THE EMPIRICAL RULE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION: µ = 0 AND S = 1 99.7% of data are within 3 standard deviations of the mean 95% within 2 standard deviations 68% within 1 standard deviation 34% 34% 2.4% 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 13.5% x - 3s x - 2s 13.5% x-s x x+s x + 2s x + 3s 9 PROBABILITY OF HALF OF A DISTRIBUTION 0.5 0 FINDING THE AREA TO THE RIGHT OF Z = 1.27 Value found in Table 0.3980 0 This area is 0.5 - 0.3980 = 0.1020 z = 1.27 10 FINDING THE AREA BETWEEN Z = 1.20 AND Z = 2.30 0.4893 (from Table with z = 2.30) Area A is 0.4893 - 0.3849 = 0.1044 0.3849 A 0 z = 1.20 z = 2.30 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION 11 PROPERTIES OF Q(.) FUNCTION 2 12