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European Union: The Emerging International Superpower
By Arihant Jain and Russell Kizor
Ethics of Development in a Global Environment
Professor Bruce Lusignan
December 5th, 2003
Introduction
The path to European economic union has been a tumultuous one, leading to
the historically unprecedented creation of a common European currency on January 1,
1999. The Commission of European Communities drafted its first plan for such a
union in 1962, the idea gained momentum in the late 1970s and the early 1990s still
saw the European Community struggling to establish the groundwork for economic
unification through a common currency. Regardless, the monetary unification of the
European Union (EU) was, and continues to be, viewed as a bold move with several
possible benefits as well as downfalls. This ambitious plan will change the global
economic landscape forever one way or the other, but many believe this to be a big
gamble at best.
Euro Currency
The European Countries had several important reasons for implementing
monetary union. Firstly, the elimination of exchange rate fluctuations between EU
countries would remove uncertainties in cross-border transactions by fixing the
nominal rate of exchange across countries. Also, this would eliminate the threat of
speculative attacks on individual currencies. Secondly, monetary union also
eradicated the transaction costs associated with exchanging currencies. This is
2
important in view of large movements of goods and capital across borders, paving the
way for better trade unification. Thirdly, there was the potential of the Euro’s rise to
international currency status. Given the better exchange rate that the Euro enjoys over
the US Dollar today, one can see the gaining importance of the Euro as the stable
international currency of trade.
On the other hand, the member countries had to surrender their control over
national monetary policy over the European Central Bank (ECB). Thus, individual
countries were only left with fiscal policy as the only stabilizing tool with which they
could combat unpredictable and asymmetric exogenous economic shocks. However,
one of the four pre-conditions defined by the Maastricht Treaty for EU admittance
was to limit the debt and deficits of a county in terms of a percentage of the member
country’s GDP (The others were stable exchange rate and required levels of inflation
and interest rates). Hence, governments were limited in their ability to use deficits to
finance economic downturns, effectively tying the hands of fiscal policy in terms of
government spending.
The disadvantages of monetary unification were clear, but it was up to the
individual members to realize the potential advantages. One of the most important of
these advantages was perhaps the irreversibility of a common currency. The implied
commitment to one Europe and one money would force the national governments to
think in terms of the bigger picture. The policymakers would have to ignore their
differences and develop growth strategies that would transcend their own economies
towards the growth of the EU as a whole.
3
The monetary unification of the EU and its implications had tremendous
potential in terms of economic and political gains. The economic unification of
Europe would increase its global influence and make it an important player in setting
global policies. As Cohen states in his “The Political Economy of Currency Regions”,
[monetary supremacy] confers substantial political benefits on the
hegemon. At home, the country should be better insulated from
outside influence or coercion in formulating and implementing
policy. Abroad, it should be better able to pursue foreign objectives
without constraint as well as to exercise a degree of influence or
coercion over others. The expansion of its currency’s authoritative
domain, in principle, translates directly into effective political
power.1
In this paper we argue that due to the accelerating path towards European unification,
we believe that in the near future the EU will be able to economically and politically
challenge the United States’ current global position as sole superpower.
Economic and Trade Implications of European Unification
The adoption of a common currency for multiple countries in Europe is an
unprecedented historical event and an economic experiment. Currently, no one can
precisely predict the economic and political outcomes of the formation of the
European Union. However, using modern economic analysis, we can examine the
benefits and costs of the EU in order to roughly forecast the net gains or losses for the
countries involved.
Richard Portes and Hélène Rey. “The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency”. National
Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 6424, Feb. 1998, 5.
1
4
There exist several incentives for European countries to join the EU and adopt
Euro as common currency. The most obvious benefit is that the citizens of
participating countries are no longer obligated to convert their currencies from one to
another within the European borders. For large countries, this tends not to be such a
problem, but for smaller countries such as many of those in Europe who tend to
conduct frequent cross-border business, this tends to become problematic. A 1990
study by Emerson et al estimated that conversion costs accounted for 0.4% of GDP
for the current fifteen countries in the EU.2 This figure may seem negligible, but
when one considers that in sum, this is a shocking $334 billion US per year, it seems
much more significant. So then, the eradication of conversion costs clearly lowers
barriers to trade and leads to greater economic efficiency.
Another barrier to trade is the uncertainty associated with foreign exchange
markets. For example, when businesses sell products to countries with different
currencies, they usually write contracts in terms of the buyers’ currencies. If the
contract states that the vendor does not receive his compensation for the products for
six months, and the buyer’s currency decreases in value over that time period, then
the vendor receives less money for the products than he or she had previously
expected. Some economists would argue that this loss of efficiency is not significant
due to the existence of forward markets that work to reduce foreign exchange risk.
This is somewhat true. However, the insurance that a forward market affords is only
available at a cost or transaction fee; else the forward markets would not exist.
Hence, the adoption of the Euro would help to reduce this inefficiency as well.
2
Eichengreen, 1327.
5
The final and most significant incentive for European countries to join the EU
is the ability for a country’s constituents to freely work and start a business in any one
the countries in the EU. According to The Economist, constituents are given “a
‘single passport’, issued by any one of the member countries, [which] allows a
financial firm to operate anywhere in the EU as long as it is registered in one of the
countries.”3 There are two primary benefits to this flexibility. First, this implies that
capital is potentially perfectly mobile within the EU, meaning that firms can place
their factories wherever is most profitable instead of just within the confines of their
own countries. There are vast cost advantages to this system. For instance, if a firm
manufactures a product that does not require much human capital, or college
graduates, the firm can build its factory in a country where there are more laborers
searching for work in such a factory.
Obviously, it can be difficult for firms to rapidly relocate their factories, so the
effects of this first benefit take place over several years. However, the second benefit
of this system is that labor has the potential to be perfectly mobile as well, which
could have profoundly positive effects on the EU as whole quickly. So, in addition to
a firm’s ability to position its factories anywhere, laborers can also seek out the firms
for which they wish to work; and conversely, firms can seek laborers anywhere in the
EU. This will undoubtedly lead to less structural unemployment, the unemployment
of those whose skills did not meet those of their job functions, throughout the EU, and
thus, to more efficient work outcomes. Additionally, this will lead to greater
economic specialization in production. That is, a good match between worker and
3
The Economist, Nov 19, 1998: “Europe’s American Dream”.
6
firm will be more easily attainable, thereby increasing efficiency of both workers and
firms.
As we have seen, the benefits from being a member of the European Union are
multiple. But what are the major drawbacks? There is one significant cost to joining
the EU: the loss of national monetary policy, a key tool that central banks employ in
order to fine-tune an individual country’s financial system. The European Central
Bank (ECB) now assumes control over monetary policy for all EU nations after
joining the EU. According to Article 105 of the Maastricht Treaty, “the primary
objective of the ECB shall be to maintain price stability”; the needs of individual
countries were secondary to this larger goal, such that “without prejudice to the
objective of price stability, the ECB shall support the general economic policies in the
Community.”4
European Central Bank
Clearly, this could prove harmful to a member country of the EU if it required the use
of monetary policy, but the remainder of the EU did not. However, this downside is
somewhat dampened due to the free capital and labor markets discussed earlier. If
Charles Bean. “Monetary Policy Under EMU”. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 14, No. 3,
1998, 43.
4
7
one country was not well economically, the citizens of that country could easily
relocate themselves and their businesses, and enjoy the prosperity of the other
member countries. Thus, even in a national economic downturn, unemployment
could remain much lower than it was before a member country joins the EU.
Now we understand that the economic benefits of joining the EU probably
outweigh the drawbacks for most European countries. Now, how will the EU as a
whole compare economically to the United States? Let us take a glance at the EU
GDP and its populations.
As we can see, the fifteen countries currently in the EU produced $8.357 trillion from
a population of 373.9 people as opposed to the US 1998 GDP of $8.79 trillion and its
population of 290 million.5 And when we consider that the GDP of the joining twelve
nations which is expected to take place by 2007 (ten in 2004 and two in 2007), the EU
will have a GDP of $8.70 trillion and a population of 480 million. Obviously, the
economics of the EU are comparable to those of the US. We should not ignore the
5
The Economist, Oct. 21st 1999: “Wider, Still, and Why”.
8
growth rate of both entities, and while the growth rate of the US is higher than that of
the EU, we might expect this to change. This may occur because after labor and
capital markets become more mobile, the economic specialization discussed earlier
will occur, and we can expect the productivity of those 480 million people to rise, and
thus raise the growth rate of the EU in excess of that of the US.
This will lead to the EU actually having more economic power than the US,
and could have interesting economic effects on the whole globe. For example, if the
EU is more economically powerful, or even as powerful, as the US, we could expect
the EU to challenge the US in its economic decisions instead of giving in to its
demands. This seems like another benefit of joining the EU. When all the countries
join together, they must no longer do as the US would like because they, together as
the EU, have just as much power to influence decisions as the US.
There are not many easily perceivable examples of this expected phenomenon
as it is currently just occurring. However, there is one instance that stands out as a
clear example. In March 2002, the Bush administration employed the use of tariffs on
steel imports in order to protect national steel producers that are unable to meet the
low costs of their international counterparts. The World Trade Organization (WTO)
deemed these tariffs as illegal, but Bush decided to leave them in place without any
regard for the WTO. However, when the European Union gave the US a midDecember deadline to drop the steel tariffs or face retaliatory export tariffs of over $2
billion, President Bush decided to back down and drop the steel tariffs on December
4, 2003. “The president said his decision was based on his ‘strong belief’ that
9
America was ‘better off with a world that trades freely and a world that trades
fairly’”.6
Evidently, though, this was not the case. If President Bush had really thought
that America was ‘better off’ with free trade, he never would have implemented the
tariffs in the first place, and needless to say, would have removed them when the
WTO deemed them illegal. Obviously, it was the $2 billion tariffs from the EU that
convinced Mr. Bush to remove his internationally harmful tariffs. Before the EU was
in existence, one member country alone probably would have been unable to credibly
pressure the US into such an action due to its much smaller size and dependence on
the US economy. We will probably see more examples like this one in the future.
Thus, due to the formation of the EU, European countries are able to economically
challenge the US when it does international damage. In other words, the US is no
longer the world’s economic monopoly – the EU is now giving the US significant
competition in its status as the world’s sole superpower.
The European Heritage of War
It is hard to ignore the fact that politics was the substantial motivation behind
the formation of the EU. Although a lot of the tangible impact was and will be felt on
economic grounds, the foundation for the EU lies in the post- World War political
relationships that existed between the European countries. For example, commitment
to the economic union was used to secure peace between France and Germany and
6
The Economist, December 6th 2003: “Rolled Over”.
10
smooth over international tensions in the wake of World War II.7 The bloody past of
Europe’s involvement in the two world wars serve as a constant reminder of the evils
of war and provide the motivation for an integrated Europe far removed from the
possibilities of intra-European conflict. Europe has created for itself a common
currency, a flag, a newspaper (the European), TV station, a European Champions
League for soccer, film festival, parliament, court and law; and a ‘Eurovision’ music
festival. These are a result of a new level and intensity of integration that has been a
reaction to the destruction and deaths of the first and second world wars. The wars
were followed by the secular division into East and West Europe during the Cold
War. Now, instead of the earlier Americanization vs. the Sovietization of Europe, the
Europeans want their own continental identity. This “Europeanization” is spurred on
by the post World War II triangulation of the continent – where the United States and
the Soviet Union had picked over the post-war European corpse to influence its
resurrection. However, now Europe is without any immanent invaders, no colonies,
no occupiers and no superpower alignments. The stage is set for its resignification.
There has been more progress on European security and defense issues since 1998
than in the past 50 years. This is no accident. Powerful historical forces are at work
that appear to have already had a transformational effect on policy formation and
policy preferences of governments which, for decades, had remained entrenched in
sovereign national dug-outs. The end of the World Wars, the end of the Cold War, the
wars of Yugoslav succession and the advent of globalization are some of the factors
7
Helm and Smith. “Economic Integration and the Role of the European Community”. Oxford Review of
Economic Policy. (Vol. 5, No. 2, Summer 1989) 1.
11
that have made important contributions towards the precipitation of a new European
policy outlook on security issues. The accelerated and intensified progress of
European integration is concomitant to the need for the EU to become a political
player commensurate with its economic and commercial clout.
The European Parliament
The EU Parliament is the assembly of the representatives of the 374 million
Union citizens. Since 1979 they have been elected by direct universal voting every
five years. At the moment, the EU Parliament has a total of 626 members distributed
between Member States according to the sizes of their populations. After
enlargement, with the addition of 10 countries, the number of members of the EU
Parliament will increase to 732.8
European Union Parliament
Currently, the EU Parliament considers the EU Commission's proposals and is
associated with the Council in the law-making process, in some cases as co-legislator.
Under this procedure it can amend laws by an absolute majority of its members
(314/626) and veto decisions. It also shares budgetary authority with the Council,
8
http://www.euabc.com/index.phtml?word_id=355#
12
supervises the European Commission and has political supervision over all the EU
institutions. However, there is a trend towards granting increasing powers to the
European Parliament as the EU moves towards more pervasive consolidation. Many
observers have expressed skepticism about granting more power to the European
Parliament. The skeptics believe that Members of the European Parliament (MEPs)
do not vote in a disciplined way and that they vote more often with their country
group than with their European Party. Using a unique database consisting of all roll
call votes by each individual MEP between 1989 and 1999 (over 6000 votes by over
1000 different MEPs), Noury et all show that the skeptics are wrong9. The data shows
clearly that MEPs vote more along party lines than along country lines. Party
cohesion is comparable to that of the US Congress and is increasing over time
whereas country cohesion is low and declining. In short, politics in the European
Parliament generally follows the traditional left-right divide that one finds in all
European nations. These findings are valid across issues, even on issues like the
structural and cohesion funds where one would expect country rather than party
cohesion. In votes where the EP has the most power, MEPs participate more and are
more party-cohesive. This study goes to show the effective voting patterns in the
European Parliament and its close resemblance to most democratic parliaments in its
functioning.
9
Noury, Abdul G.; Roland, Gerard, Economic Policy: A European Forum, October 2002,
v. 0, iss. 35, pp. 279-312
13
“The Union's aim is to promote peace, its values, and the well-being of its peoples”
– Constitution Article 3(i)
Foreign policy and Defense Aspirations
Due to its experimental nature, the EU is a system in constant transformation
and thus it is hard to understand the characteristics of EU political integration. The
political dynamism is largely because the very fabric of the EU rests upon a form of
coexistence with established polities in the member states and with the constant mire
of international relations coupled with what we now call globalization. A crucial
element of the EU’s evolution is the creation of a common foreign and security policy
(CFSP). However, a defense dimension is being added through the implementation of
a common European security and defense policy (CESDP; launched in 2000) and a
European Rapid Reaction Force (ERRF). The creation of a Rapid Reaction Force was
finally agreed by the EU’s defense ministers in February 2000, who re-affirmed their
commitment to the formation of a 60,000-strong force by 2003. This Rapid Reaction
Force is intended to work alongside NATO as a complimentary force. Its strongest
supporter is France who has been pushing for an independent European Army. Other
Member States worry about upsetting the Americans through a possible split of the
14
NATO alliance.10 Western Europe and the United States have held a close alliance
since the end of World War II and have often coordinated military operations under
the NATO framework. Now, however, many Europeans in positions of responsibility
feel that their economic interests and foreign policy objectives are at variance with
those of the United States. This is especially true in regard to policies concerning
many parts of the world, including Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East and even
Latin America. The French and German governments feel particularly strongly about
developing and maintaining an independent military capability that can operate
without US cooperation or consent. The Germans have also suggested that the EU's
nuclear capabilities should also be "integrated within the European defense system".
At present, Britain and France are the only EU countries with a nuclear deterrent.11
European Rapid Reaction Force
Europe’s desire for a continental strike force antedates its present rift with the
United States. It can be traced back to Europe’s shame in being unable to prevent the
bloody disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. But the notion of a European army
can be seen as inevitable with the European unification gathering strength and focus
steadily. As the EU increasingly plays a pivotal role in setting and enforcing the trade,
10
11
http://www.euabc.com/?word_id=788
http://www.euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=13&aid=13185
15
societal and environmental policies for the Continent, it would be outlandish if it
failed to move towards a common defense policy- and inevitably a common defense
force as well. If Europe wants any say in the nascent new world order, it needs to be
able to substantiate the values it upholds. There is certainly a perverse irony in Europe
needing to develop an armed force to project its pacifistic values. However, an armed
force that is controlled by democratic nations and employed only in instances of
genuine threats will definitely be a welcome addition to the forces pursuing peace in
his world. More importantly, it is almost necessary to create a democratic alternative
to the military monopoly of the United States. This is especially true since the Bush
administration does not seem to be successful in using their forces for intrusive
inspections of rogue states or for nation-building.
Implications and Reverberations of the War on Iraq
In light of the recent invasion in Iraq by the United States, we are witnessing
one of the most serious European-US political divide on global issues since the end of
the Second World War. Not only has it sparked off EU initiatives to develop its own
foreign policy with the backing of a ‘Euro-army,’ but has also taken its toll on
transatlantic trade with the expected economic spill-over. The war on Iraq has caused
a significant strain in transatlantic political relations because it seems to be the final
straw in continuous differences in EU-US policy outlooks. The war comes right after
the Bush administrations unilateral withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol on Global
Warming, the ABM Treaty, and the International Criminal Court. Essentially, it has
caused the exposure of profound differences with Europe over threat assessments
16
regarding weapons of mass destruction; the proper way to handle "rogue" nations
such as Iraq and Iran which act contrary to international norms; the role of
multilateral institutions such as the United Nations; and the use of military force.
The American business community should be as worried as their European
counterparts about the potential damage to transatlantic trade relations. The
economies of the US and Europe are not only interdependent but also well-integrated.
Through their respective affiliates, US and European companies each employ over
one million workers in the other's market. The US has over a $1000bn annual trade
and investment relationship with Europe. Over 60% of US exports to Europe are from
US parent companies to their European affiliates.12 On the US side, the huge subsidyladen farm bill and the imposition of tariffs on European steel products still hang as
impediments to improved trade relations. The Bush administration has to determine
how it will tackle a politically charged WTO case to void the EU moratorium on
Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). On competition policy, the European
Commission takes a more suspicious view of mergers, as shown by the denial of the
US-government approved GE-Honeywell deal, looking more at the impact on
competitors, while the US focuses on efficiencies to consumers. Such ideological
differences in EU-US economic outlook is the basis of current and future transatlantic
trade rifts.
12
Eizenstat, Stuart E .The Economic Effects Of US Foreign Policy. Financial Times Business
Edtion, The Banker, June 1, 2003
17
Conclusion
We have now seen how the European Union has and will continue to
challenge the United States both politically and economically. This is a fortunate
result for the remainder world’s nations because the US has waged its monopolistic
power in order to better its own interests instead of interdependently considering the
interests of others. Political and economic examples of this abound such as when the
US breaks international treaties and invades Iraq, or when the US breaks international
law according to the World Trade Organization.
Map of European Union
18
Now that the EU is firmly positioned and growing in power, the US will no longer be
able to commit such acts that are in the interests of the US but harmful to the
remainder of the international community.
Now we must question how the EU’s newly acquired power will cause it to act
in the future. Currently, the EU just challenges the US in its internationally harmful
decision-making. But one may wonder if after the EU has surpassed the US in its
political and economic authority, it will begin to make decisions solely in its own
interest like the US has in the past. While it is currently impossible to predict the
outcome of the EU’s growing power and how it will be waged, two factors lead us to
believe that the EU will act internationally more responsibly than the US. First, the
US is only one nation, so it employs its power for in order to promote national
interests when making decisions. The EU, on the other hand, is comprised of
multiple nations, each with a different set of national interests. Therefore, when the
EU begins to set global policy, it will already have at least twenty-seven nations
attempting to create that policy, which will lead to more internationally-based
decisions. This will reduce the risk that the EU will break international laws when
setting policy. Secondly, while the EU may grow stronger than the US, the US will
probably continue to be a worldwide presence, and thus, will keep the EU’s power in
check.
It is now clear that the EU will become a globally powerful institution and the
international implications will be positive overall. It is a comforting thought that
global policies in the future will not be solely determined by one nation, especially
one that is motivated by selfish gains. After perceiving the wrongdoings that has
19
been unleashed under the Bush administration, we, as members of the world
community, can all be extremely gratified to know that there is hope in the future of
global policy making in light of the emerging European Union.
20
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