Download 20111019_etude

ASCONIT CONSULTANTS
National Report MAURICE Executive summary _ Oct 2011

Context and objectives of the study
The study “vulnerability and adaptation to climate change effects”, at the Mauritius scale,
was carried out within a wider strategic regional level study for the 5 member
countries of the Ocean Indian Commission. Thus, the same study has been carried
out, in parallel, in each member country, by a national consultant supported by an
international expert.
In the initial stage of the study, the development of a conceptual framework and a
training session allowed to share methodological principles for carrying out the
vulnerability study, and to adapt the methodology to the specificities of the region. The
team designed (i) a method for qualitative appreciation of vulnerability (ii) a participatory
approach to involvement and appropriation (iii) and proposed a regional strategy, the
whole within very short deadlines.
The purpose of this national study is to present a current climate change
baseline inventory on data, knowledge, policy trends and current actions for
mitigation / adaptation in Mauritius at the level of the territory and taking into
account the country’s sustainable development goals.
The Mauritius study was conducted through three main steps that are detailed below. The
work on the methodological framework was detailed in a previous report:
- Establishment of an informal technical committee
- Data collection and analysis, report writing of national vulnerability analysis
- Restitution, validation and participatory construction of recommendations during a
national workshop

Regarding the data and information collection, the study bases itself on the available
and accessible data. An important literature review was carried out in the first stage
of the national vulnerability study; a detailed literature database was set-up to
facilitate access to the collected documents. This database was put at the disposal of
the public on the Indian Ocean Commission website.
Considering the very short nature of the assignment (planned to be completed in
under 4 months), the team only relied on secondary data.

In order to facilitate information collection, but also to allow the appropriation of the
results and proposals in the country, and to share findings with the main stakeholders
including policy and decision-makers, an informal national technical committee
was set-up. The committee includes Permanent Liaison Officers of the IOC,
meteorology experts, representative of the Ministry of the Environment, and other
concerned ministries, as well as sub-regional representatives (other islands and
regions) that were involved in the elaboration of the National Adaptation Plan of
Action (NAPA) and national communications. The purpose of the informal technical
committee is to involve national resource persons which have the expertise to
facilitate information collection but also to pre-validate, in an informal way, the initial
findings which will be presented at the national workshop.

The national workshop of presentation of the vulnerability status was held on
January 16th, 2011 at the IOC head office.
Reminder of the climatic parameters taken into account and
tendencies (scenarios of the IPCC declined on Indian Ocean)
The Republic of Mauritius, with a population estimated to 1 265 000 inhabitants, is
composed of the main island Mauritius, the islands of Rodrigues, the archipelago of
Cargados Carajos (known as Saint Brandon), those of Agalega, of Tromelin and the
archipelago of Chagos which includes the Diego Garcia atoll.
Mauritius Island area is about 1865 km2 and the global area of the Republic is estimated
at 2040 km². Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) stretches over an area of 1, 9 millions km2.
Tromelin is under joint administration Franco-Mauritian.
Maritime area could increase with the approval of United Nations from which Mauritius
requested the extension of territorial waters. Mauritius’ littoral is 322 km long and the
150 km long coral reef surrounds a 243 km² lagoon.
The area covered by the coral reefs is about 300 km². Littoral geomorphology is
diversified, dominated by sandy beaches and other fragile ecosystems managed by
Marine Protected Areas (7 216 ha) and costal mangrove forests. The costal area is one of
the natural assets. It supplies with goods and services on which the socio-economic
development of the island Mauritius depends.
The subtropical maritime climate of Mauritius is characterised by a hot and wet summer
from November to April and a dry and cool winter from June to September. September,
October and May are the transition months between seasons.
 Rise in Air temperature
The IPCC projections (scenario A1B) for the Indian Ocean basin indicate that Maurice
zone should known in 2100 a temperature rise of +1,4°C à +3,7°C.
Since 1950, temperature clearly tends to increase by 1,1°C for the average maximum
temperatures and by 2°C for the average minimum temperatures. The same tendency
is observed in all the externals meteorological stations as Rodrigues, St Brandon and
Angela. Summer temperatures also follow a rising curve.
Changes in rainfall patterns
According to the IPCC model (scenario A1B), annual precipitations will change
between -2 % and +20 %. A quantitative fall tendency (quantity and duration of
rainy period) and an increase of precipitations intensity are observed. In addition, the
important rainfall deficit in 1999 and in 2010, with the lowest rate of flow is examples
of the potential impacts of climate change.
Between 1930 and nowadays, the rainfall has been reduced by 12% on average. The
impact is important not only on superficial waters storage but also on groundwater
recharge.

 Sea-level rise (erosion and submersion)
Sea level measurements began in 1988 in Port-Louis. Then, tide gauge has been
installed in Rogrigues, Blue Bay (located in the south-east of Mauritus Island) and in
Agalega. Records indicate an average sea level rise of 7, 8 cm high in Port-Louis and
of 6,7cm high in Rodrigues after the year 2000.

Disturbance of the winds conditions: no data currently available

Acidification of the oceans: no data currently available

Modification of the fundamental environmental cycles (seasons cycles,
currents cycles, flows cycles and environmental cycles) :
The number of rainy days and the quantity of rainfall decreased whereas the
occurrence of high precipitation increased (Climate Change Impact in Mauritius,
2009). Therefore, the occurrence of sudden flood causing important damages and a
temporary break in various socio-economic activities are higher (Climate Change
Impact in Mauritius, 2009). Until 2000, Mauritius tanks were filled thanks to cyclones’
rain, whereas during the last ten years, the filling up is done only by torrential rain,
without the provision of cyclonic water. During high precipitations, economic activities
of the country must have been stopped, including schools, secondary school and
universities which were closed.
 Climatic extremes (cyclones, storms, landslides)
The total number of cyclones has not changed, but cyclones with high intensity
increased compare to cyclones with moderate intensity. In order to face and to
ameliorate the preparation of population to climate extremes threat, Mauritius has
developed an alert system against tropical cyclones and torrential rains. A committee
(the Cyclone) and another committee about natural disasters, work under the
responsibility of the Prime Minister.
El Niño oscillations influence directly the Indian Ocean surface temperatures. In 1998, during a
major El Niño event, surface temperatures maintained above 30°C during several weeks, for the
whole Indian Ocean. Climate change impacts on El Niño phenomenon is yet uncertain, but might
increase significantly its magnitude and its impacts for the years to come.

Method and study of vulnerability
Based on the common methodology adopted for the study, 12 relevant socioeconomic
sectors for these island states were defined:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Security and sovereignty
Cultural Identity and education
Public health
Integrated Water Resources Management, cycle of the water
Agriculture, food security and forests exploitation
Environmental and ecosystem protection
Fisheries
Spatial Planning, infrastructures, risk management
Energy (production, transfer and distribution)
Transport
Industry, businesses and services
Tourism
Each of these sectors was cut in sub-sectors according to specific stakes
3 levels are defined for vulnerability.
Low Vulnerability : The system is faintly or not affected
Medium Vulnerability : The system functioning is affected (adjustment or adaptation)
High Vulnerability : The system is put in danger (functioning or system)

Current state and vulnerability appreciation by sector
All sectors are vulnerable to climate change. Direct impacts are a consequence of higher
temperatures, of a lack of irrigation during dry months and of a higher frequency of flood
events. Coastal areas are threatened by devastating waves and also by the rising of
water levels which contaminates groundwater near costal area.
1. Security and sovereignty: Low vulnerability

Boundaries delimitation and disappearing Coast
The Republic of Mauritius and its several islands, have about 1.9 millions km2 of the
Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). If, on a long term, lands near sea level will be
immerged, the EEZ might change. The Republic of Mauritius and the Republic of
Seychelles applied together to The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
for an extension of 400 000 km2 of the continental plateau located in the Mascarene
Plateau. In addition, Mauritius requested also for an extension of 123 000 km2 of the
continental plateau located in the Rodrigues Island and want to apply for an extension
of 180 000 km2 of the continental plateau located in the Chagos archipelago.
2. Cultural identity and education: Low vulnerability
Education is one of the main concerns of the Mauritius government. In spite of an
effort has to be made to raise awareness on possible climate change impacts, the
“risk management” approach constitutes a first step for raising awareness: a program
in relation with natural risks is planed at a national scale.
3. Public Health Medium vulnerability
Projects and programs about sanitation in Mauritius (Plaine Wilhems Sewerage, Grand
Baie) contribute to improve water quality and to reduce infection risks. The increase
of warm periods leads to a reduction of drinking water quantity. Risks in relation with
vector-borne diseases are a regional stake because of frequent passengers travelling
among islands of the Indian Ocean. Also, new threats can be added: new waves of
diarrheic diseases, respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases and also heat
waves with low impact (at present) but which can increase significantly.
Several correlated factors (temperature, rainfall, and humidity) increase diseases
propagation as chikungunya or dengue. The mosquitos’ activity intensifies with the
increase of temperatures and rainfall intensity that cause water accumulations and
increases of larval shelters.
Passengers travelling between islands are a second probable factor.
4. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM): Medium vulnerability
Directly linked with health sector, water resources management (drinking water,
agricultural water or industrial water) is one of the main concerns of the Republic of
Mauritius. The management of this resource is already problematic during some
periods of the year, showing major impacts that could cause a water resource
decrease. Measures have been taken as the obligatory desalination for the most
important hotels but the problem remains for a country which population is
connecting to a sanitation system and to drinking water supply. A study, lead on 23
points (WRU), shows that the water quality is deteriorating. Change in rainfall
rhythms decrease water storage capacities.
The current system does not satisfy users demand and this demand increases in
relation with the expected increase of tourist (objective: 1 Million tourists / year).
The IWRM is a national concern with an operational action: the carrying out of a
master plan about resource management. More over, other measures exist:
- Building of others dam (Bagatelle et Anguilles)
-
Identification and reduction of water loss in water supply systems.
Desalination of sea water for hotels (important capacity) and industries.
5. Agriculture, food security and forest exploitation Medium vulnerability
43% of the lands are cultivated whereas 25% are forest. The island depends on
importations: 70% of food needs are imported. Sugar cane is the main culture grown.
The outcomes of the products (based on sugar cane) exportation allow the
importation of all food that cannot be locally product. According to the data of the
AREAU and of the Ministry of Agro Industry and Food Security, vegetal and animal
productions are impacted by the temperature rise and the rainfall decrease. Only the
sugar cane sector seems to be able to face new challenges (creation of new suitable
varieties).
Costal cultivated lands will be impacted by saltwater intrusions (sea level rise).
Extreme events (succession of drought, flood leading to soil leaching) make soil
erosion and the soil degradation even worse.
Moreover, the Implementation of an action plan for a sustainable alimentary
diversification strategy (2008-2015), in order to ameliorate the alimentary selfsufficiency, is on going. The alimentary security fund favours the development of local
agriculture and partnership between islands. The National Forest Policy (2006)
defines the main activities in order to anticipate CC:
-
cut down trees must be replaced,
-
strict illness monitoring,
-
fire monitoring,
-
Strict regulation for protected areas.
6. Environmental and ecosystem protection: High vulnerability
The coastal area is one of the assets that provides goods and services useful for the
socio-economic development of Mauritius Island. The tourist attraction for coral reefs
generates a high anthropogenic pressure. Except for far reefs, climate change effects
are worsening by current high anthropogenic pressures (fishing, outputs from
watershed area, tourism).
Several national policies highlight the importance of climate change consideration:
national environmental policy (1999 and 2007), National Biodiversity Strategy (20062015), Mauritius as a sustainable island (2008) and Sustainable Integrated
Development Plan of Rodrigues (2009).
To make the most emblematic species resilient / resistant the following measures of
adaptation are taken:
-
Coral farming: a pilot project (financed by AAP and Mauritius Oceanography
Institute) has been carried out in continental and off-shore basins.
-
Integrated basin catchment management to reduce contamination flows,
-
Implementation of a Protected Marine Area Network (7216 ha),
-
Fishing regulation
-
Mangrove plantation and beach restoration.
Local NGO are active in terms of prevention of climate change risks. The expanse of
forest cover has reduced considerably, this tendency remains. Biodiversity
conservation became a major challenge. It is menaced by the increase of extremes
events destroying forests and habitats. The real forest cover is about 47 000 ha.
Others challenges about forest are fires which frequency increases with temperature
rise.
Mauritius Island is under the threat of many invasive species, fauna or flora. For
example: the wild pig or the rat as mammalians and the privet or the guava as plant.
In agricultural lands, destructive pests are threatening the culture. The risk comes
from invertebrates and essentially from insects if they are disease vector for plants
and animals. At present, there is no regional cooperation working on this field and
invasions remain an important threat.
The IZCM is a priority for the national environmental policy:
 About the far reef islands : until nowadays, Mauritius Island has been less
affected than other islands in Indian ocean by the coral bleaching thanks to
marine currents and fresh waters.
 Reforestation on 10 000 ha and fight against fire.
 The cleaning of invasive species.
7. Fisheries: Medium to high vulnerability
The fishing sector is a pillar of the national economy. This sector represents about 1,
3% of the GDP. The deep-sea shelters many species commercially important (tuna
fish, swordfish, demersal fish) or emblematic (marine mammals as sperm whale,
humpback whale during southern winter, turtles, marine birds). Moreover, this area is
the feeding area for many marine birds. Far coral reefs are constituted by the coral
reef of Agalega (28km²), the coral reefs of Cargados Carajos (105 km2 without
lagoon). High-stakes areas for coral reefs protection have a high biomass of reef
fishes. They are also important areas for turtles, high ranking predators and birds.
On far areas, where anthropogenic pressures are only fishing activity, measures to
increase coral reef adaptation to climate change are limited to the monitoring and to
the fishing regulation in order not to unbalance ichtyologic populations (in particular
herbivores ratio).
The imbalance can increase climate change effects (in particular coral bleaching and
acidification) favouring for example algae in algae/coral competition. Climate change
impacts are not well known: increase of oceanic temperature with coral bleaching and
development of food poisoning; increase of fish losses before capture due to increase
of average ambient temperature. The over-exploitation of halieutic resources
endangers lagoon species. Fishing capture data are collecting and allow evaluating
fishes stock. These data can be useful to establish a relation between climate change
and impacts on fisheries. So, it is possible to forecast future impacts in order to
design a policy for adaptation and mitigation.
Many actions are implemented within the framework of the IOTC.
Fisheries Regulation and fisheries projects in process




Biodiversity Inventory around FADs (Fish Aggregating Devices). Over more, fishers are
trained to fish around FADs in deep-sea. This practice decrease fishing pressure on reef
areas and enable to diversify halieutic resource.;
Aquaculture: among the 8 aquaculture areas identified around Mauritius Island, one has
been allocated to the fishers’ community. A pilot project has been implemented: floating
cages in Bambous Virieux zone.
Implementation of Marine Protected Areas (MPA),
Fishing regulation and sea uses regulation
On-going projects:




Integral protection for some species
Fishing development plan (1998) includes a monitoring of climate change effects
FAD exploitation and training of fishers for a fishing activity around these devices;
Multiplication of aquaculture projects
8. Spatial Planning, infrastructures, risk management: Medium Vulnerability
(Country planning, facilities, risk management)
Regarding country planning and facilities, coastal zone is the most endangered by
natural risks due to climate change (cyclones or high swells). Impacts are known
through rare extreme events yet happened but frequency or intensity of these events
could increase. In this case, facilities are directly targeted, in first place houses and
hotels then vital facilities for economic life as harbours or roads. On buildings scale,
the main interrogation is about the adaptation of constructions against temperature
increase or against more violent cyclonic winds. Mauritius is vulnerable for these
aspects. During the two last years, costal erosion became more important and we can
note an important beach loss and damaged facilities. Agalega and Saint Brandon,
located just above sea level (2m high) are particularly submerged during cyclonic
events. Beach loss for the last decade is around 18 500 m². The economic loss is
around Rs1.2 millions per year, without taking into account the value loss of
ecosystems.
The demographic growth and the development of tourism sector create high
pressures on agricultural lands and on costal areas. The Transport network is not
adapted to CC and traffic breaks occur. Most of the costal hotels are close to sea-level
(1 to 5 m high). Harbour infrastructure, located 2,6 m above sea-level, is submerged
with unfavourable weather conditions.
Damages on electricity network are important and cause failures. Most of the
economic activities are affected by the path of cyclones.
Planning documents require the review of infrastructure quality in order to resist to
CC and CC evolutions.
Along the public beaches of Mauritius Island, protection works (7000 m long on costal
areas) have been done. The cost is estimated to 150 million of Rs for the two last
decades. The undertaken maintenance cost is about 5 million of Rs per year.
9. Energy (production, transfer and distribution): Low to medium vulnerability
Regarding the energy, Mauritius remains nowadays dependents on fossil fuel import.
In spite of the fact that a dynamic for renewable energies development exists, it is to
be feared that climate change have indirect consequences on fuel and transport costs.
The Mauritius dependence on fossil fuels is 80% up and NRE production is limited.
The energy demands will more than double until 2040.
Reinforced concrete buildings made during 60’s are storm-resistant, but they have a
low level of thermal insulation.
In 2009, the Long Term Energy Strategy has been adopted in order to satisfy 35% of
the energy demand thanks to NRE until 2025.
10. Transports: Low to medium vulnerability
All activities depend on imports.
Transport network, most often located near costal areas, is not adapted to CC and
traffic breaks occur (in addition to the growing number of cars that cause high traffic
jams)
To ameliorate quality of public transport services and reduce traffic jams, 18
measures have been identified during the Mauritius Transport Consensus Forum held
in 2006.
11. Industry, businesses and services: Low to medium vulnerability
In Mauritius, all activities depend on imports and on local distribution. Regarding
industries and businesses, tourism and sugar cane are the pillars of the Mauritius
economy. Sugar cane, (subject dealt in part “agriculture”) appears less vulnerable
whereas tourism sector, particularly linked with coastal area, is much more
vulnerable.
12. Tourism Medium to high vulnerability
Tourism is another pillar of the Mauritian economy with 871 356 tourists flow
generating an income of 35 693 Million Rs in 2009. This income increase each year
but may suffer from negative impacts of climate change. These impacts will be the
result of temperature rise, sea-level rise, costal erosion and coral degradation. If it’s
not regulated, the attraction for aquatic tourism may be a threat for ecosystems.
Tourist accommodations are along the costal area as transport infrastructures. The
risk of sanitary crisis (epidemic) can have a high an immediate impact on tourism
activity (transfer to other destinations). The Hotel Development Strategy requires
taking into account the environment in hotels development.
The aim of the Tourism Development Plan is to consider Mauritius Island as ecological
destination until 2020.

National adaptation framework and adaptation actions
undertaken at the national level
The science of climate change is studied by the Mauritius Meteorological Service (MMS).
Adaptation to climate change and the elaboration of a national strategy are under the
responsibility of the Ministry of Environment & National Development Unit. A formal unit
(Climate Change Division, CCD) has been setting up by this Ministry to coordinate all
actions in relation with CC. Committees have been organized grouping together:
meteorological services, departments responsible for the water management, energy
producers and persons in charge of Health, Agriculture and Tourism.
The economy structure in Mauritius Island is undergoing radical transformation and sugar
/ textile industries have to face new realities. There is a land reduction that are under
sugarcane cultivation; agricultural lands are converted to answer to tourism needs or to
other agricultural needs. Agricultural producers turn to other activities as electricity
production from sugarcane bagasse (waste of sugarcane) or ethanol production.
Adaptation measures are setting up but they are note specifically in relation with climate
change. Other actions, more adapted for health, water, agriculture, forest and fisheries
have been taken:
Health:
-
Heighten monitoring of entrances in harbour and airport,
Maintaining a clean and healthy environment inside the islands perimeter
Awareness campaign for local population and implementation of new analysis methods and
screening methods to clean up territory.
Water:
-
Reduction of Loss of water supply
Identification of new resources
Building of new dams (Bagatelle and Anguilles Tank)
Reuse of treated wastewater in order to satisfy the needs for irrigation.
Desalination of sea water.
Agriculture
-
New varieties of cultivars must be produced or introduced
Growing region must be displaced higher where temperatures are lower.
Needs for irrigation water will be obviously more important in order to offset the rate of water
loss increase, of change in rainy season and of driest periods.
New technologies must be introduced (sheltered cultivation)
Environment of livestock buildings must be improved.
Forest and biodiversity
-
all cut down trees are quickly replaced and reserves are maintained
a strict monitoring of tree diseases is implemented
Fire monitoring is strengthened with the destruction of bushes
Invasive species are cleaned up.
Campaigns for tree planting along roads, implementation of green spaces
Fishing:
-
Protective measures have to be implemented to reduce damage
Decrease in the level of pollutant dropped in rivers
strengthening infrastructures
Intensification of mangroves cultivation
To encourage coral cultivation
Strict protection of species
Protection/restoration of habitats (nesting site, feeding site, breeding site)
Implementation of ecological corridors for migratory species
Strengthening fishing quotas (at the IOTC’s level) and strengthening the regulation about some
species and some fishing techniques during one period (breeding period).

Stakes for the regional adaptation strategy

Stakes and challenges for the country
The willingness to adapt is very real in several sectors, both in governmental sectors
and in private ones. Many times, expertise and financial means are not sufficient.
However, Mauritius has assets to make these applications easier: population’s level of
education, good quality of infrastructures, communication well-organised and
technical systems accessible.
Generally, initiatives concerning CC are well received by population, NGO and
institutions. Before the setting up the climate change division-CDD, the government
took the initiative to guarantee the alimentary security and the human health. The
Water Resources Unit began to monitor groundwater.
 Priorities
During the national workshop, first-mentioned recommendations have appeared:
capacity building and the urgency to embrace a coherent policy about climate change.
This policy must be lead on several scales: national, regional and international. The
creation of a thematic platform at the regional scale was mentioned.