Download Differential Demographic Growth in Multinational States: Israel`s Two

Differential Demographic Growth in Multinational States: Israel's Two-Front War
Monica Duffy Toft
“If a multinational authoritarian state in which there is a numerical gap between groups
suddenly becomes democratic, the distribution of power should shift to favor the majority
group at the expense of minority groups… [thus] differential growth rates and political
liberalization will have considerable political consequences.”
Variables that effect the likelihood that demographic growth will lead to violence:
1a) democratic states are more likely to be internallv destabilized by differential
demographic growth than authoritarian states.
1b) authoritarian states are more likely to be externally destabilized by differential
demographic growth than democratic states.
2) the more rapid the rate of differential growth between groups, and the closer in
magnitude the growing group is to other groups, the more likely a democratic state is to
be destabilized by differential demographic growth.
3) the higher the perceived degree of threat from other states, the more likely the state is
to be destabilized by differential demographic growth.
4) the more a state's criteria for resource distribution are based on identity group
membership the more likely it is to be destabilized by differential demographic growth.
Case Studies: Belgium, Serbia and Israel
Belgium was beset by a creeping national identity crisis that took almost 200 years to
come to a head. It has so far been able to dodge the worst consequences of its
demographic threat by constitutional reforms, but in the process it has established
principles and precedents that may compromise its existence as a unified state.
Serbia attempted to solve its own demographic threat by extreme violence. Attempting to
resolve the demographic imbalance in Kosovo by depopulating it was not only immoral
but unwise, given the international community's preexisting sensitivity to Serb actions in
the 1992 Balkan violence. In the event, Serbian action precipitated the further
dismemberment of the Yugoslav Republic and the criminal prosecution of much of its
leadership for war crime.
Israel has so far done little in the way of government reform aimed at heading off the
demographic threat posed by the rapid increase of Ultra-Orthodox Jews as compared to
other groups in Israel. This is mainly because Israel maintains—and has since its
founding in 1948—a staunchly external view of its problems. If siege by its enemies is
what makes differential demographic growth within fortress Israel a threat, then one way
to eliminate the demographic threat would be to raise the siege. So far, Israel has chosen
to attempt to do this by means of war against Palestinians and Palestinian terror groups. It
has not relieved the siege but only threatened to intensify and extend it. But Israel faces
another problem. Even had it chosen peace without altering its current system of
government, its UltraOrthodox minority would someday gain control of government.
Youth Bulges, Youth Cohorts, and Their Contribution to Periods of Rebellion and
Revolution
Jack Goldstone
The ability of rebellious youth to enact significant social change is rare and requires
certain circumstances.
Social change is necessary to separate the life-experience of one generation from the
next, and therefore necessary for the youth to form a cohort.
A “youth bulge” is a ration between people aged 15-30 and everyone older. Certain
bulges, like the baby boomers, come with an empowerment that leads to youth action.
These bulges are not necessary for youth rebellion, but they do make it easier to mobilize
the population for political protest.
Social conditions necessary for revolt or revolution:
1. National government is closed to broad participation or popular control
2. The government must be weakened by some sort of crisis
3. There need to be tensions or divides among the political elite
4. Conditions favoring broader popular mobilization
It has been predicted that a vast expansion in secondary education, coupled with a lack of
opportunities for further upward career mobility leads to greater revolt. Universities also
bring students together.
Student/youth rebellions do not usually produce violence or bring down regimes – they
need partners in crime like labor groups, soldiers, or peasants.
Youth bulges can make the chance of an ethnic war increase, they can make reaction to
sudden political and economic changes more explosive, and they tend to radicalize the
movements they support.
Factors leading to a radicalized youth cohort:
1. A large youth bulge
2. Rapid urbanization
3. Disproportionate production of education students to economic opportunities
available
National Intelligence Council “Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for the
United States” - This study discusses the issue of growing global migration. Although
statistics are important and useful in painting the bigger picture, I think that for the
purposes of this course we should focus on the broader themes that are addressed in the
study. One of the themes is “migration’s mixed impact.” For sending countries,
emigration relieves pressures in their labor market, and, ultimately, returning immigrants
will be agents of economic modernization and political liberalization. At the same time,
emigration becomes loss of skilled personnel – something that can become a significant
problem in countries with an aging population. A second theme is “globalization fueling
migration.” This phenomenon that has expanded international trade, finance, investment,
amongst other things, has also contributed to the rise in migration. In many ways
globalization has made the international migration flows more fluid and continuous.
Finally, the study addresses the implications for the US. The strength of the US economy
will continue to attract many immigrants. Political and economic crises abroad will also
drive many to come to the US. Moreover, how well other countries handle their own
migration issues will affect subsequent migration pressures on the US. Although
increased immigration flows might create some complications for the US’s security and
“narcotrafficking” control initiatives, the study also points out that migration contributes
significantly to the US through noninflationary economic growth.
Discussion Questions:
1. How will the current migration trends affect the intra/inter-regional power
dynamics? Will the migration of skilled workers and professionals to OECD
countries consolidate the regional power of these core states? Or will the
immigrants’ ties to their countries of origin create informal links between the
states that will result in a more balanced and multi-polar distribution of power?
2. Will domestic immigration policy be a serious source of conflict between states in
different regions? For instance, how will US immigration policy affect relations
with China? Or will the implications of these policies only affect the domestic and
regional dynamics?
3. How influential are demographic structures on a country’s economic and political
strength? Does demography play a significant role in interstate politics? What
areas of the world are most prone to rapid demographic change in the next 10-20
years and how will this affect the international order?
4. Goldstone writes that youth-led organizations tend to radicalize revolutionary
movements. Should radical Islam be viewed primarily as a youth movement? Or
is it something broader, with youth support? Who are the main groups involved in
this movement and how does the youth figure into their general strategy?