Download TABLE OF CONTENTS - Caspian Associates, Inc.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1- INTRODUCTION
- Whither Iranian Industry?
- The "Third Industrial Revolution" and success of
somenations to ride this wave;
- Changing global circumstances and the need for a
rational response
- Objectives of this proposal;
- Products of the research;
2- PANORAMA OF IRANIAN INDUSTRY
- Experience with policy formulation and implementation
3- GLOBAL CONTEXT AND EMERGING TRENDS
4- WHAT IS AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY?
- Rational (role of gov't and market),
- Definition
- Goals
- Instruments
- Relation to macro-environment
- Current models and recommended instruments
developing countries
for
5- FORMULATING AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY FOR IRAN
- Global and national contexts;
- Overall objectives of the study
- Overall results and products
a) Documents
b) Events (Seminars in Iran and US; Congress,...)
c) Educational material (video, short articles,..)
- Methodology
- PHASE I: Preparation (Objectives; Course of
action: research, workshops, seminars; Results and
products: technical reports, workshops, seminars,
video, short articles)
- PHASE II: Analysis
PHASE
III:
Synthsis
(Objectives:
goal
identification, policy formulation)
- PHASE IV: Proposition (Program development for
the 2 sectors
6- CALENDER AND BUDGET
7- RESEARCH PARTICIPANTS
1
INDUSTRIAL POLICY PROJECT
IRAN, MINISTRY OF HEAVY INDUSTRIES
FACING THE 21st CENTURY: THE NEED FOR AN
INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN IRAN
HOOSHANG AMIRAHMADI, PROJECT DIRECTOR
Contractor: Concept International, Inc.
I. THE PROBLEM:
After several decades of massive industrial investments in
Iran, the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the
nation's economy and society is far from acceptable. The
sector's contribution to the nation's GNP in 1372 was ...%,
and
it's
ability
to
generate
jobs
lags
far
behind
the
overwhelming increase of the new entrants into the labor
market. Focusing on the sector itself, it is not difficult to
observe
that
its
performance
continues
to
suffer
from
a
number of factors such as low levels of productivity and of
value
added,
markets,
and
lack
of
shortage
competitiveness
of
competent
in
international
human
resources
particularly at the management and technical levels.
In addition, events of the last fifteen years, the Revolution
and the Iran-Iraq war, have had major debilitating impacts on
2
the Iranian industrial structure and performance, deepening
the
gap
with
the
international
technological
and
organizational frontiers.
Concomitantly, since the middle of the 1970's, a series of
far-reaching
innovations
in
technical,
organizational,
institutional, and financial practices, generally called the
"Third
Industrial
Revolution",
have
taken
place
in
the
developed and a number of industrializing nations. The main
characteristics of this Revolution are:
1) Emergence of electronics industry, as the central
dynamic force of the economies of developed nations and
of the Newly Industrialized Nations (NICs).
2) Transformation of production methods primarily as a
result
of
the
diffusion
of
flexible
industrial
automation and new organizational technics such as
"Total Quality", "JIT", "Lean Production", "Flexible
Specialization", "Control and Quality Circles", etc.
3) Innovations in firm organization and administration
with
the
emergence
of
"interand
intra-firm
cooperation",
"competitive
alliances",
"strategic
alliances", etc.
4)
Emergence
of
new
forms
of
public-private
coordination and partnership for the purpose of
deliberate construction of "competitive advantage".
5) Intensification of global competition, triggering
efforts to rationalize this pattern through devising
new international agreements, resorting to managed
trade, and participating in trading blocks with farreaching consequences for late industrializers.
5) Emergence of new forms of "technological alliance"
particularly among global oligopolistic firms, and the
growing tendency to treat technology as "national
security".
3
Developing
countries
that
are
trying
to
reform
their
industrial base, and economies in general, are facing vastly
different circumstances compared to just a decade ago. In
addition
to
the
consequences
Revolution",
industrializing
recessionary
pressures,
of
the
nations
shrinking
"Third
have
to
investment
Industrial
face
global
flows
from
developed nations, saturated world markets, and increased
trade protection in developed countries.
In order to adopt a rational response to these far-reaching
developments and to focus on improving a number of structural
and institutional impediments, Iran requires a comprehensive
framework,
an
industrial
policy,
for
restructuring
its
industrial sector. The purpose of developing such a framework
is the infusion of goal-oriented, strategic thinking into
economic policy formulation. The present proposal intends to
undertake this task. This will be acheived by integrating
insights
drawn
from
a
close
examination
of:
a)
emerging
trends in global production, consumption, and trade patterns;
b) successful examples of industrial policy formulation and
implementation; and c) structural patterns and institutional
behavior of the Iranian economy.
The research will be conducted simulteneously in Iran and US with
4
the participation of experts, both Iranian and non-Iranian.
It is our belief that the following three goals provide the
necessary focus for the formulation of necessary medium- and longterm policies and programs. Those are: improving manufacturing's
productivity,
creating
competitive
advantage
in
high-growth,
export-oriented industries, and generating job opportunites.
The proposal's does not intend to do an exhaustive analysis
of all branches of Iranian manufacturing, although we will
perform two sector-specific studies as the last leg of this
project. The proposal's purpose is to develop a framework for
policy discussion by bringing together insights from three
sources:
a) an analysis of the emerging trends in global
production
and
consumption
practices,
in
trade
relations, and in inter-national flows of capital and
technology;
b) successful industrialization strategies of S.E.
Asian NICs and South European peripheral regions, and
the experiences of a number of leading developing
nations with the structural adjustment and policy
5
reform initiatives; and
c) Iran's historical and contemporary experience in
industrial
and
sectoral
policy
formulation
and
implementation.
By integrating the above insights with the objectives of the
project, the research will result in the formulation of a
typology of industrial policy frameworks and will place Iran
within
that
industries
typology,
(mature
the
or
identification
innovative)
for
of
which
promising
competitive
advantage must be created within the current international
context,
the
development
competitiveness
and
of
employment
sectoral
indexes
of
for the two industries of
steel and electronics, and the amplification of the methods
of study in order to generate a generalized methodology that
would
provide
a
benchmark
for
future
studies
of
other
industrial sectors.
WHAT IS AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY:
Introduction:
With
the
passing of the conservative Reagan-Thacher era,
there is renewed interest in the role of the government in
economic
affairs
in
general,
and
in
manufacturing
in
particular. The European community has developed documents
coordinationg
national
industrial
policies
within
the
EC
structure. In the US some of the most prominent advisors to
Mr. Clinton, such as Mrs. Tyson and Mr. Reich, were prominent
6
advocates of industrial policy during the 1980's and have
moved to use the levers of government to, among other things,
influence the commercialization of R&D, targetting strategic
industries, and promoting managed trade.
A
series
of
recent
academic
and
policy
studies
of
the
performance of Japanese and other S.E. Asian economies have
focused on the developmental, coordinating and regulatory
practices of those governments (Johnson,
Amsden,
).
Although there is still some disagreements about the mode of
government
intervention1
in
these
economies
and
their
replicability in other nations, a consensus has, never the
less, emerged about the prominant role of the state in the
rapid economic growth of these nations.
Given
the
lingering
doubts
in
academia
and
government
circles, one should perhaps first indicate what industrial
policy is not. It is not: support for inefficient industries;
long-term protection for non-competitive industries through
tariff and non-tariff barriers; nationalization; increasing
state ownership and investment in manufacturing; and finally
it is not allowing decisions by government beaurucrats to
Consult the latest World Bank study (August 1993) titled
"The East Asian Miracle". The report concludes that most
government interventions failed and even those that succeeded are
not replicable in other developing countries due to lack of
competent and honest bureaucracies.
1
7
replace market mechanism.
Definition:
An industrial policy is a series of realistic and coordianted
programs that attempt to generate new capabilities or to
introduce change in the structure of manufacturing activities
of
a
nation.
How
these
programs
are
selected
and
the
hierarchy of their importance depends on clear and acceptable
goals that a society, through various means, sets for itself.
Examples of such goals are: employment generation, achieving
international
competitiveness,
improving
productivity
and
efficiency, reducing dependence on foreign goods, promoting
the adoption, adaptation and diffusion of new technologies,
and other goals or combinations thereof.
Industrial policy is different from development and macroeconomic
policies.
possibilities
and
The former is preoccupied with growth
distributional
aspects
of
all
economic
sectors, agents and regions without necessarily focusing on
manufacturing or on the requirements of a national agenda for
the structural overhaul of that sector.
On the other hand, the traditional focus of macro-economic
policies have been fiscal and monetary policies. But the
Japanese,
in
a
major
revision
of
Western
macro-economic
theory, incorporated industrial policy as the third leg of
8
the
macro-economic
policy
next
to
fiscal
and
monetary
aspects. Thus in the East Asian experience there is a clear
theoretical foundation for industrial policy implemetation by
making it inseparable from other policy instruments.
Currently Recommended Instruments:
In the current atmosphere of multi-lateral agencies there is
a genreal trend of encouraging governments to move away from
"hard" forms of industrial policy intervention such as direct
investments
or
general
financial
inducements.
It
is
the
"soft" forms of assistance that are generally recommended.
These include technical, financial, and marketing advice,
training, encouraging the formation of Small- and Medium-size
Enterprises (SMEs) and supporting innovation. This is within
the
overall
framework
of
macro-economic
policies
that
emphasize a more open trade regime, increasing exports, more
efficincy in resource allocation, devaluation and unification
of the overvalued currencies, and reducing the protection for
inefficient activities.
But the success of the above policy framework is not a
foregone
industrial
conclusion
while
policy
we
as
there
have
is
no
defined
clear
it.
A
focus
on
number
of
countries, such as Turkey and Argentina, have had a measure
9
of
success
in
implementing
these
policies
with
positive
results. Others such as Brazil, Algeria, and Egypt, despite
costly attempts, have experienced disasterous consequences
such as increased unemployment, destruction of part of their
industrial base, and failure to promote exports. Thus it
becomes
clear
that
the
above
set
of
policies
does
not
automatically generate success. Rather it is the proper match
among
objectives,
policy
instruments,
the
actual
and
potential domestic capabilities, and the trends in the global
economy that is the determining factor.
Consequently, it is
essential to formulate a policy framework for Iran that is
informed
by
successful
experiences
in
industrial
policy
implementation and current international trends, that focuses
on
clearly
defined
objectives
of
employment
genenration,
competitiveness, and improved productivity, that calls upon
the
strenghts
of
the
Iranian
manufacturing
sector
while
attending to its historical weakneses.
FORMULATING AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY:
Industrial Policy Typologies:
Thus the first task of this project will be a qualitative
analysis
practiced
of
by
industrial
a
number
policies
of
10
as
they
successful
were
and
are
countries.
The
experiences of rapid industrial growth in the East Asian
countries, a number of the less industrialized regions of
Europe such as Italy and Spain, and the various responces to
structural adjustment and policy reforms are among the policy
arenas
where
one
should
search
for
relevant
policy
instruments. For example in the Japanese-Korean model the
objective of industrial policy was the creation of efficient,
internationally competitive industries. Sectoral targetting
of
high-growth
oligopolies
in
industries,
those
promoting
sectors
and
the
emergence
disciplining
those
of
who
failed to perform, selective and short-term protection of the
domestic
market,
ensuring
the
development
of
necessary
sectoral mix, implementing policies to force rapid transfer,
diffusion and control over technology, and linking financial
incentives to export performance were some of the visible
policy instruments that were utilized by those governments.
In the case of Italy, the objective of industrial policy was
the generation of high-paying and sustained employment in
regional
and
non-metropolitan
centers
and
community
development. Assisting the creation of small enterprises,
promoting
trade
associations
that
facilitate
cooperation
among local firms, implementation of a system of risk sharing
and
absorption
flexibly
of
specialized
market
fluctuations,
production
methods,
development
and
creation
of
of
centers that assist and advise all local firms in technical,
11
financial, and marketing matters have proven to be highly
successful policy instruments. Many small and medium size
cities of Italy and Spain have been succesful in making
inroads into global markets in products such as tiles and
tile machinary, leather goods, fashion clothing, and textile
machinary.
We will also review the responces by industrializing nations
to
recent
initiatives.
structural
The
adjustment
and
policy
reform
experience of countries such as Turkey,
Argentina, Brazil, Malaysia and Zambia and a number of other
nations will be studied to provide relevant information about
the impact of particular measures. It seems that in a number
of cases trade liberalization combined with short term trade
controls, supply incentives for small producers, encouraging
the
diffusion
and
blending
of
high
technology
in
mature
industries, and other monetary and fiscal related policies
have produced positive results.
In order to generate the typology proposed by this project
first we have to choose the nations for the study. It is our
suggestion that all the first tier (Korea and Taiwan) and
second tier NICs (Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.) be included. In
Asia, China and India have also had very important industrial
policy reforms in the last ten years. The experience of
12
Southern European nations of Italy and Spain in developing
their
less
industrialized
regions
have
been
held
up
by
international organization such as ILO and UNIDO as highly
relevant to industrializing nations (ILO
, Colombo
, UN
). On the other hand World Bank and IMF advisors use the
examples
of
Argentina,
Turkey,
and
Chile
as
the
most
successful in going through with "adjustment" measures.
We suggest to produce a typology on the basis of a number of
indicators. These indicators would be:
1- Industrial Structure (all in terms of employment and
value added)
a) mix of large and small firms;
b)
patterns
of
specialization
and
transformation
c) public/private ratio
d) export/GNP ratio
2- Investment patterns:
a) manufacturing fixed capital formation
b) sources of investment
3- Role of the government:
a) coordination
13
their
b) regulatory
c) demand generation
d) capacity development
e) strategic plan
4- Access to technology
Typology:
WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY:
TYPOLOGY:
INDEXES OF COMPETITIVENESS AND EMPLOYMENT:
14
METHODOLOGY FOR PERFORMAING THE ABOVE OBJECTIVES:
RESULTS OF THE STUDY AND MODES OF DISSEMINATION:
Problems of Iran's industrial sector prior to and since the
revolution, the impacts of the war economy, and the recent ad hoc
initiatives for industrial policy reform within the context of
structural adjustment and market liberalization; lack of a
comprehensive framework that informs government role in economy;
2: Our recommendation for Iran is not an isolated
proposal. Industrial policy framework has been gaining
importance in industrial and industrializing nations
due to deindustrialization, restructuring, experience
of East Asian economies, globalization of production,
emergence of trading blocks, and failure of past
development
strategies;
Various
nations
pursue
15
different industrial policy inititives based on their
contemporary problems and levels of industrialization:
2.1: Deindustrialization in the West; Decline of a
number
of
mature
industries
in
US,
Britain,
France...(steel, ship-building, textile, auto); Erosion
of competitiveness in Hi-tech industries;
Restructuring, firm strategy, and impact on regions of
industrial nations; East European economies;
2.2: Emergence of East Asian economies as the most
dynamic economies of the past couple of decades;
Success
primarily
due
to
adoption
of
vigorous
industrial
policies
based
on
sectoral
targeting,
linking international trade to industrial objectives,
close collaboration between government and private
sector;
2.3: development policies of the past decades and the
industrialization strategies that accompanied them have
proven to be untenable; Import-subs, export promotion,
leading to debt crisis and emergence of the Fourth
World; Crisis of large, state-owned enterprises leading
to privatization, celebration of small firm dynamism,
and emphasis on harnessing market mechanism and
promotion
of
competition;
Here,
design
and
implementation of industrial policy (meaning a focus on
supply side) is not prominent, rather generation of
proper environment for macro policies is emphasized;
3: Today, arguing for an industrial policy in Iran is
not popular; Given the problems of state domination
over industrial sector and the failure of many
enterprises; lack of experience on the part of state
employees to design, implement, and follow through a
dynamic
and
comprehensive
industrial
policy;
fragmentation of decision-making and implementation
organs; the structural adjestments following the moves
towards
export
promotion,
trade
liberalization,
unification and devaluation of foreign exchange rate,
and uncertainties associated with property rights, all
point to negative incentives for the development of an
industrial policy; But leaving everything to markets
will not do; In spite of tremendous attempts by the
economics profession to prove otherwise, successful
countries
have
not
acheived
their
competitive
advantages by reliance on purely market forces;
3.1: We argue that if Iran wants to take serious steps
towards developing and expanding its industrial base,
she has to develop an industrial policy that, on one
16
hand, incorporates the success stories of development
of industries around the globe and, on the other,
considers Iran's unique situation within the global
economy. Iran needs an industrial policy in order to
generate a climate, an orientation, and a commitment by
the
government
to
certain
realistic
goals
and
objectives for industrial transformation in which the
private sector will be the major player;
Iran faces an international situation where three
regional blocs are emerging. NAFTA among North and
Central American nations, EEC among the European
nations, and a bloc of East Asian nations centered
around Japan are closely integrating their economies.
Iran, due to its geographical location will not be a
member of these blocs and as such will not enjoy the
privileges that accrue to member states in terms of
investment possibities, transfer of technology, and
favored access to consumer markets. In addition, there
is an acitve campaign on the part of the US and a
number of other Western nations to deny access to
advanced technologies and to capital markets to Iran.
II. DEFINITION OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY
Introduction:
Negative
perceptions
towards
industrial
policy:Industrial policy is not: support for inefficient
industries;
long-term
protection
of
non-competitive
industries
through
tariff
and
non-tariff
barriers;
nationalization, state ownership, or increasing state direct
investment
in
manufacturing;
permitting
decisions
by
government beaurucrats to replace market mechanism;
Definition: A series of realistic and coordinated programs
that attempts to generate new capabilities or to introduce
change in the structure of industrial and manufacturing
activities of a nation. How these programs are selected and
the hierarchy of their importance depends on clear and
acceptalbe goals that a society sets for itself; Examples of
such goals are: developing competitive industries and
penetrating international markets; generating employment at
different levels of skill; targeting emerging high-growth
industries; reducing dependence on foriegn goods and
services; improving productivity; strengthening linkages
among a gorup of industries; promoting the adoption,
adaptation and diffusion of new technologies; etc.
Industrial policy is different from development and macroeconomic policies;
The former is preoccupied with growth possibilities and
17
disttributional aspects of all economic sectors, agents and
regions
Overcoming problems of late-industrialization depends on many
factors that may not be totally under government control:
firm size and structure; availability of low-cost capital;
demand conditions; international environment and access to
technology; and knowledge of foregin markets. But long-term
problems associated with growth, productivity, and avoiding
structural rigidities are within the realm of government
initiatives and industrial policy.
III. DESIGN OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY
A. The New Global Conditions (see Hooshang's Global
Restructuring course outline)
1. Introduction: Why the new global conditions should be
taken into account for designing industrial policy?
How
industries are changes as the larger global political economy
changes?
Why and how these changes are relevant to the
Iranian case?
2. The Emerging Trends: The changing environment of
international relations (from bipolar to a multipolar world,
civilizational conflicts, etc); Globalization of production
and consumption patterns; Formation of regional trading blocs
and the future of export markets; Emergence of high
technology as a sensitive national security issue and the
resultant control on technology transfer; The changing nature
and pattern of international competition; The "brian power"
industries and competitive advantage, etc.
What particular
global changes are relevant to the Iranian case and why?
1: Globalization of production
2: International competitiveness
3: Trading blocs
4: Technology as national security
B. Topologies of Industrial Policy Experiences: A Synthesis
1. The Experiences:
1.a.
Successful
industrial
18
policies:
Western
Europe,
United
States,
and
Japan;
Newly
Industrialized
Countries (NICs) in East Asia, Developing Countries
NICs (GIVE SPECIFIC EXAMPLES)
B: Successful Industrial Policies
1: East Asian Model
A: Industrial targeting, focus on industry mix,
and linking trade with production (Centrally
coordianted)
B:
Close
cooperation
between government and
private sector
C: Firm size and industry structure in targeted
industries (promoting the large firms and denying
new entries to insure demand in the begining)
D:
hierarchical
inter-firm
cooperation
and
flexible production
E: Recent changes toward more liberal trade
practices and international orientation of firm
strategies
2: Southern European Model (Industrial districts)
A: Small firm competition and cooperation
B: Locally coordianted thru close cooperation
among local government, community, and firms;
resulting
in
highly
efficient
Marshallian
districts;
C: Risk sharing in labor, capital and export
markets
D: Blending high tech capability into low-tech
industries (design, marketing, and distribution of
such industries as clothing, leather products,
tiles, and related heavy machinary)
E: Flexible specialization due to emphasis on
skill and keeping the craft nature of production,
aiming for highly fragmented, high-value consukmer
markets;
3: Developing Nations
Many nations have undergone structural adjustment
since the Eighties, with direct impacts on
industry.
Replaing
import-subs
with
exportpromotiuon strategy, promoting the small and
medium
firms,
and
a
combination
of
trade
librelalizaton and fiscal policies have become the
new orthodoxy; Common features of many policy
reforms have been:
A: Removal of price and other controls on
enterprises
B: Removal of quantitative barriers to trade and
the rationalizaton of tariff structure
19
C: exchange rate devaulation
D: privatization of state-owned enterprises
E: promotion of foreign industrial investment
The results have been mixed with some of the high
performers being among those that opened their
economies folowing a planned course; mixing market
mechnisms with innovative government innitiatives
(China, Zimbabwe, Malaysia)
A: Combination of protection and tight trade
controls with appropriate real exchange rate and
supply incentives for small producers (as in
Zimbabwe)
B: A number of nations faced difficulties in
properly phasing the trade related reforms with
those related to manufacturing, which resulted in
having to roll back some of the trade related
initiatives.
C: The devaluation reforms has generally resulted
in excessive inflationary pressures which limited
the degree of real exchange rate realignment
acheived
D: Malaysia attempted a heavy industrialization
policy during the 1980's but failed. Weakness of
bureaucracy and the existence of a strong rentseeking class were the main reasons for it. Could
a similar problem arise in Iran?
E: Use of Free Trade and Industrial Zones in
Philipines, Sri Lanka, China, Iran with micxed
results.
1.b. Failed Industrial Policies: GIVE SPECIFIC EXAMPLE
2. Lessons for Iran:
3. Methodology (for A & B):
3.a. Interviews: With key people in Iran (to learn
about Iran's view of the new world conditions and
industrial policy debates
3.b. Literature Review
4. Preparation of Interim Report
5. Experts Symposium (U.S.?) on Trim Report
6. Preparation of Final Report
20
C. Survey of Iranian Industrial Policy Since 1950s
1. Introduction: Why to undertake the survey? What we want
to specifically learn? It has to be a critical review,
pointing to both pros and cons, as well as the reasons for
success or failure; must draw definite conclusions to be used
at the stage of designing industrial policy for Iran.
STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS IN IRAN:
Rent seeking behavior: Having a great deal of money that is
generated not from taxes or productive activities of the
nation provides the avenue fo catching the "Dutch disease"
and promoting rent-seeking as opposed to profit-seeking
behavior on the part of the private and public firms.
Question of relationship between Trade Liberalization and
short-term Protection for Manufacturing:
Impact
of
trade
liberalization
on
manufacturing
recovery and its potential growth;
Institutional fragmentation and existence of many centers of
decision making;
Lack of investment by the private sector in manufacturing;
CURRENT PROPOSALS IN IRAN
In Second Five-year program only two pages for manufacturing
activities; Most of it deals with trade;
Promoting activities for reverse-engneering;
Labor training;
2. Methodology (for C):
2.a. Report and Data Collection
2.b. Mail Survey (needs a Survey Questionnaire; will
21
include public and private sector; large and mediumsize
industries;
traditional,
mature,
and
modern
industries):
2.b.1.
Industry-Based
Survey
(to
include
petrochemicals, steel and machine tools, textiles,
and
electronics
or
another
"brain
power"
industry)
2.b.2. Locally-Based Survey (to include Isfahan,
Ghazvin, Arak, Karaj, Rasht)
2.c. Field Survey (this is a "structured interview"
with a select group of managers; needs a Survey
Questionnaire; will include public and private sector;
large and medium-size industries; traditional, mature,
and modern industries located in Isfahan, Arak,
Ghazvin, Karaj, Rasht)
2.d.
Control
for
data
distortion
(using
WB
X
methodology): This will account for distortions caused
by the war, state subsidies, inflation, the current
economic transition in the country, etc.; it will also
distinguish
between
rent-seeker
and
profit-seeker
industries
3. Analysis of Findings
4. Preparation of Interim Report
5. Expert Symposium (IRAN?) on Interim Report
D. Industrial Policy Framework: Medium-Term and Long-Term
FORMULATING AN INDUSTRIAL POLICY FOR IRAN
The theoretical context
The international context
The Iranian context
Some propositions
1. Limitations and Opportunities of the International arena
in Light of Iran's Industrial Capabilities
2. Proposals
Rigidities
for
Overcoming
22
Structural
and
Industrial
3. Policy Framework for Articulating an Industrial Policy
3.a. Sectoral Policies and Technical Organization of
Production
3.a.1. Labor Market (brain-power, training and retraining schemes, labor laws, wage policy, etc.)
3.a.2.
Capital
Market
(various
financing schemes: domestic sources,
back, borrowing, etc.)
industrial
FDI, buy-
3.a.3. Technology Market (transfer and local R&D,
science parks, etc.)
3.a.4.
Management
Capacities
and
Techniques
(strategic, by-objective, knowledge requirements,
etc.)
3.a.5. Institutional Development and Restructuring
(problems
of
parallel
organizations,
crossobjective industrial activities, elimination of
inefficient firms, invigoration of more productive
units, formation of new high-tech firms, etc)
3.b. Spatial Policy and Spatial Organization of
Production
(industrial
district
formation
and
restructuring; creation of inter-firm linkages and
cooperation; Building of local government, community,
and firm cooperation; development of institutional
capacities for risk sharing in capital, labor and
export-markets;
design
and
provision
of
spatial
incentives and control measures; etc.)
4. Preparation of Interim Report
5. Expert Symposium on Interim Report
6. Preparation of Final Report
E. Industry-Specific Policy (for Traditional, Mature, and Modern
Industries)
1. Introduction.
2. Industry Identification (Does these industries have an
international market, or have a chance for such a market?
What kind of sectoral and spatial policies may assist in
creating international competitive advantage for these
23
industries?
3. Policy Design (requires a pilot project to develop
standards for others (planners, industrial policy experts) to
apply same to other industries or firms; the purpose should
be model-building)
3. Manager Education (course to be offered for managers of
targeted industries to develop an ongoing exchange of views,
taping into their knowledge of the industries and testing the
viability of the general framework, etc.)
VI. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (IS THIS THE SAME AS ABOVE OR WE SHOULD
DESIGN PLANS FOR IMPLEMENTATION IN SOME DETAIL?)
V. PROJECT ADMINISTRATION
1. Project Owner: Ministry of Heavy Industries
2. Project Contractor: Concepts International, Inc.
3. Project Director: Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi
4. Project Iran Office
4.a. Technical Supervisor: Mohammad Razavi
4.b. Other Personnel (office manager, secretary/typist
(Farsi
and
English),
head
researcher,
research
assistants, driver, etc.)
4.c. Physical Space: (two rooms and other basic needs
facilities)
4.d.
Equipments
(computers,
fax
machines,
copy
machines,
telephones,
furniture,
fixtures,
office
supplies, stationary items, etc)
4.e. Vehicle (needs one full-time light field vehicle
such as Nissan Patrol, Jeep)
5. Project U.S. Office
5.a. Technical Supervisor: ?
5.b. Other Personnel (secretary/typist (Farsi
English), head researcher, research assistants)
and
5.c. Physical Space: (two rooms and other basic needs
24
facilities)
5.d.
Equipments
(computers,
fax
machines,
copy
machines,
telephones,
furniture,
fixtures,
office
supplies, stationary items, etc)
VI. PROJECT TIME-TABLE
Stage 1: The New Global Conditions
Industrial Policy Experiences
and
Topologies
of
Starting Date: ----------------------------------Ending Date: ------------------------------------Period in Months: -------------------------------Stage 2: Survey of Iranian Industrial Policy Since 1950s
Starting Date: ----------------------------------Ending Date: ------------------------------------Period in Months: -------------------------------Stage 3: Industrial Policy Framework Design
Starting Date: ----------------------------------Ending Date: ------------------------------------Period in Months: --------------------------------
Stage 4: Industry-Specific Policy Design
Starting Date: ----------------------------------Ending Date: ------------------------------------Period in Months: --------------------------------
VII. PROJECT BUDGET (only for stages 1 and 2; budget for the next
two stages have to wait for a later date when more is known about
25
project activities????)
Foreign Exchange
Domestic Currency
(U.S. Dollars)
(Iranian Rials)
----------------------------------------------------------------1. Labor
2. Equipments
3. Supplies
4. Communication
5. Transportation
6. Symposia
7. Printing & Duplications
8. Editing and Publications
9. Map Drawings
10. Miscellaneous
VIII. FINAL WRAP-UP
Delivery of the project to the Ministry of Heavy Industry;
transfer of all documents, reports, books, articles, etc that have
been collected and produced in connection to the project)
26