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“Superpowers: Current
and Projected leaders of
the World”
Will the Current Unipolar System Remain in
Place for Long?
José Alejandro Valenzuela A00904564 José Guerrero A00904470 José González Sau A00904416
01/04/2009
In this essay we will try to analyze the current distribution of power among countries in the
world, and the future trends which might upset the unipolar system in which the United States has
been the world’s only superpower since the end of the Cold War.
The United States is no more the world’s only superpower, and it already shares its world role
with several other nations. The current state of world affairs is rife with similar speculation about
superpowers and the fate that awaits the world if a multipolar system emerges. Many declarations
have been made stating that the US is no longer the world’s only superpower. That China, India, the
EU, and even Russia have risen to the same level as the United States. But how can we objectively
determine which country is a superpower. How can we know which countries might become
superpowers in the future. And how can we predict what changes might occur if another country
dethrones the US as the world’s only superpower. In this essay, we will examine all of these factors
and try to answer different questions, such as the current power system, whether it is unipolar or
multipolar, and whether the US is the only superpower in the world or whether it has been joined by
China or India or even both.
There are different elements which a country must have to be classified as a superpower, and
these qualities or characteristics are not clearly defined and vary from scholar to scholar. For example,
according to Lyman Miller, the basic elements that compose a superpower state are comprised in four
major categories or axes of power, which are the following: military, economic, political, and cultural.
Kim Richard Nossal, from Queen’s University, defines a superpower as a country which had five
crucial elements. First, it needed to occupy a large territory, a continental sized landmass, this would
ensure that the country has large quantities of economic and land resources. Then it had to have a
large population, comparable to other superpowers and that allowed the allocation of sufficient
soldiers into its army. Also, it needed a prosperous, strong and stable economy, coupled with the
capacity of not depending from international intercourse, this is, it should be able to thrive or make do
without cooperating with other countries should the need of isolation from them arise. Finally, the
country should have a well developed nuclear strike capability, to use as a deterrent and an
intimidation tool. All of these factors combined make a country relevant around the world; they make
a country crucial for future world development and harden its position in the world stage.
It is important to acknowledge that the United States fulfills all of this requirements, it fills
every category. Thus, since the end of the Cold War, it has been categorized as the world’s only
remaining superpower. But how long will this continue to be? Several signs of decline have been
showing more and more frequently, and times have been getting rougher for the world’s only
superpower. This, coupled with the economic, military, and political rise in other countries around the
world has brought up speculation about the future distribution of global power.
First, we will try to explain the recent debacle of the United States, its slowdown in many aspects.
These shortcomings have paved the way for other countries to step up and assert their power. The
United Sates had been the only superpower, since 1991 with the end of the Cold War, causing the
collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of a uni-polar system. Their condition was enviable;
they had created the strongest military, a great economy, and their domain and influence over the rest
of the world was unquestionable. But in the last years, several factors combined, and had made the
United Sates lose this power, to the point that they are not the only superpower anymore.
The United States has lost credibility, not only from its citizens but from the entire world. Many
factors had led to this. Recent wars had made many people and countries disagree with their
government, because they claim that their purposes are for intervention while it is very clear that they
only seek their own interests; and they expose and sacrifice millions of people.
Another reason that caused the loss of credibility is that the government expends billions of
dollars on military equipment, while the nation´s actual situation is so difficult due to the crisis. A
crisis that has led millions of people not only misemployed, but also homeless and thousands of
businesses on bankrupt, affecting the global economy.
The United States financial position is declining; the Gross Domestic Product is falling (6.3
percent) behind the population’s growth. This country’s economy has always depended on
manufactured imports including technology and its dependency on imported oil. This fact supports the
main statement, because a country that depends on other countries is not a superpower. And as a result
of the points previously mentioned, the American dollar is declining.
China and India are emerging to challenge the United States’ grip on superpower status. In an
increasingly interdependent world, who is to say that the United States is a superpower when it
depends so much on trade and investment relationships with other countries? As a matter of fact,
many researchers and scholars are arguing that we already live in a multipolar world, where countries
depend on each other heavily and no country can afford to upset the balance or the status quo of
current world relations.
Adding to the confusion is the staggeringly fast growth of two Asian economies, which have
risen to impose their will in the Asian region and who are now posing a direct challenge to the United
States, not only economically, but politically, ideologically and even in military affairs. We just need
to take a look at recent actions by China, who along with Russia is refusing to side with the United
States in proposing sanctions against North Korea for its missile tests. This is a direct political and
ideological challenge to the US and to Western politics.
Another important indicator of China’s political influence is its permanent seat in the UN
Security Council. Militarily, China has the biggest armed forces in the world, is spending ever
increasing figures in modernizing and improving it, and has had nuclear capabilities for a long time.
Also, we have to take into account that China does not make public its military budget, so other
countries can not accurately estimate China’s military capabilities or its growth. An equally important
factor is China’s investment in technology, with a study from Georgia Tech saying it will soon
become the number one technological superpower. What this means is that China will become the
center of research and innovation, and as such, will be the first to obtain new technology and take
advantage from it.
Last but not least is China’s impressive economic growth, which has turned heads all around the
world and has attracted billions of dollars in foreign direct investment. This is remarkable, since
China has taken advantage of its condition and has made sure foreign investment nets profits, making
them want to come back for more.
These trends are important, since they signal the arrival and increasingly big part that China plays
in the global economy. China in 2007 helped global economic growth by 17% in 2007 which is also
the same percent that United States contributed. Another thing that is helping Chinas economy to
grow fast is the access of China to the WTO, and in this year (2009) it is supposed that it will become
the greatest exporting economy.
A drawback for China is that its emergence as an economic superpower depends on the
continuation of the growth rates that they are experiencing right now, and nowadays, this prospect
seems bleak at best, with an economic crisis at hand and companies losing profits. This could
represent a harsh blow for China, which relies heavily on Foreign Direct Investment for its growth.
What China does to stay afloat will define its future, and if it handles the crisis aptly, it will serve as
irrefutable proof that China has the stability to become a superpower.
Another important thing to mention is that the rapid industrialization has made that China increase
its relations with other countries. Also China has lent a lot of money to encourage many enterprises to
invest on Asian countries and this increases its political and economic relations. One fact about China
helping other country is when it canceled the African debt of 1.47 U.S billion dollars with the United
States.
Finally, the last theory is that the current system in the world is a multipolar system, thanks to
all the connections, globalization, and interdependence among countries. It has been argued that this is
better than a unipolar system, since decisions will be taken with the well being of at least several
countries in mind, instead of just the benefit of one country in mind.
This system is supposedly more stable and will result in better consequences for a larger part
of humanity. As Tony Karon from Time magazine puts it: “All over the world, new bonds of trade
and strategic cooperation are being forged around the U.S. China has not only begun to displace the
U.S. as the dominant player in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation organization (APEC), it is fast
emerging as the major trading partner to some of Latin America's largest economies. . . . French
foreign policy think tanks have long promoted the goal of ‘multipolarity' in a post-Cold War world,
i.e., the preference for many different, competing power centers rather than the ‘unipolarity' of the
U.S. as a single hyper-power. Multipolarity is no longer simply a strategic goal. It is an emerging
reality”.
Countries are increasingly forming relations among them without necessarily including the
US, as evidence by increasing Chinese relations with Latin America and Europe. Plus, the record oil
deal between China and Iran that amounts to four billion dollars.
If we analyze the actual condition of the United States, We see the following: their financial
affairs are in hands of their biggest bankers (China and Japan); they are dependent on imports for their
manufactured goods; they have trouble with creating jobs for their citizens due to crisis; Their
currency has lost value across the world; And a very strong one, it has lost credibility and respect. We
can infer that a country with those characteristics can not be the world superpower.
As a conclusion, we can see that the current climate of foreign relations and the current
balance of global power is experiencing a wave of change that has struck the US and pushed China.
At this moment, we can say that we are living in a unipolar system, but we are sure that this will not
go on for long. Many countries are poised to ascend to the level of a superpower, more specifically
China, followed by the European Union and even Russia. The result will not be a displacement of the
US as the lone superpower in the world; it will be the emergence of a multipolar system, influenced
heavily by the superpowers that arise. This situation will bring great change, but with this essay, our
team has learned that as a multipolar system involves more countries, it is more likely that more
people will benefit from the decisions of superpowers, and it will be more likely that there is an
atmosphere of cooperation and joint growth.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Von Drehle, David. "The Multipolar Unilateralist." The Washington Post 1 Apr 2009
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