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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050) ET2050 Discussion Note SPQR Form Sample Purpose: To normalise description of models to be used in ET2050 Version: 2 Date: 24 October 2011 Author: Andreu Ulied Revision: Oriol Biosca Status: - Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050) NAME TT-MoSAIC BACKGROUND Last update Developer Developed in the project Ownership Main applications 2011 MCRIT based on TT previous developments. 7th EU Framework Programme (INTERCONNECT) MCRIT co-financed by EC. No commercialised. TT is the best state-of-the-practice transport-oriented forecast model available at EU level. DGMOVE has required the application of TRANSTOOL model in all studies carried out during the last years in the process to redefine the Transeuropean transport networks and the new Transport White Book 20102020. TT model is being continuously improved in different projects of the 7th European Framework Programme. In the INTERCONNECT (2010) MCRIT developed the TT-MSAIC model, based on TT trip generation and distribution results, being also applied in ORIGAMI (2011-2012) to assess four different transport policy-scenarios for 2030. Documents of reference Scientific papers INTERCONNECT Final Report (www.interconnect-project.eu) TRA2012 “Impacts of improving interconnectivity between local and long-distance transport networks in Europe: Conclusions from the modelling activities in the INTERCONNECT 7th EU Framework Programme project” 12 hours 16 Gb Results can be provided in MDB format BridgesNIS (proprietary software programmed in C++ by MCRIT) linked to most GIS packages, specially Geomedia Intergraph. Tutorial and guide under development. Running time Size of total results Data exchange format Software platform SAMPLES Reference data from Data used for calibration Data inputs 2005 TT-MoSAIC internal parameters are calibrated with TT 2005. Multimodal Transport Networks (25.000 links) including detailed intermodal exchanges and proxy to long-distance passenger services. Information restricted. TENCONNECT socioeconomic, trip generation and distribution databases 2005-2020-2030 produced by TRANSTOOLS for baseline scenarios at NUTS3 level. Publically available information. POSTULATES Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050) Forecast reliable up to Geographic coverage Adm. desegregation Thematic scope Theory of TT-MSAIC 2030 EU27 and neighboring countries NUTS3 Passengers (freight not included) Integrated modal split and assignment for passengers applied to TT trip distribution matrices 4-steps passenger and freight transport model see: http://energy.jrc.ec.europa.eu/transtools/ Theory of TRANSTOOLS (TT) QUERIES Transport supplyoriented policies How infrastructure provision (new links and connections) will reduce traffic congestion?, induce modal shifts?, change energy consumptions and emissions?, accidents?, increase accessibility? How changes in prices for transport passenger services may reduce traffic congestion?, induce modal shifts?, change energy consumptions and emissions? How changes on vehicle technologies may reduce traffic congestion?, induce modal shifts?, change energy consumptions and emissions?, accidents? Transport market regulatory policies Technologic innovation R E S U L T S (Main families of indicators) Transport endowment Infrastructure investment Costs of travelling Time of travelling Accessibility Trips Modal shares Modal chains Traffic congestion Emissions Typical graphic output (maps, diagrams) Aggregated, by NUTS3, by mode Aggregated, by NUTS3, by mode Between NUTS3 by trip purpose using optimal transport chains Between NUTS3 by trip purpose (business, leisure, visit) Surface, people or activities (GDP) at a given distance or time or cost from a given place Between NUTS3 by trip purpose (business, leisure, visit) % trips between NUTS3 by trip purpose (business, leisure, visit) % length or time or cost between NUTS3 by trip purpose (business, leisure, visit) Hours/year of congestion on main roads CO2 by network link, aggregated at NUTS3 or NUTS0 Maps with traffics and congestion levels on transport links Accessibility maps displayed by 5x5 km2 cells Maps with patterns for NUTS3 Time lines for key indicators aggregated at different scales ADAPTATIONS PLANED IN THE FRAME OF ET2050 Sample Postulates Questions Update with TEN_T (foreseen Octobre 2011) Link to foresight metamodels to mode freight transport - How changes in population, economic growth and travel behaviour may induce different mobility flows and patterns Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050) Results - future MoSAIC versions may provide trip Origin–Destination matrices for ET2050 alternative scenarios. - The socioeconomic profitability of new infrastructure investments. Calculation of a proxy for CBA for infrastructure projects INTERACTION WITH OTHER ET2050 MODELS Potential inputs from Can provide outputs for MULTIPOLES population forecasts MASST GDP economic forecasts METRONOMICA (to be discussed) SASI population, GDP, transport networks Transport outputs to the SASI Model DATA IN NON EU27 COUNTRIES ESPON space countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Lichtenstein) Accession countries (Western Balkans and Turkey) Neighbouring countries Networks and travel data available, at a lower resolution than in EU27 countries. Data available for all ESPON partner countries Networks and travel data available, at a lower resolution than in EU27 countries. Data available for Western Balkans and Turkey Networks and travel data available, at a lower resolution than in EU27 countries. Data available for Ukraine, Belarus, Russia. No data available for Northern Africa nor Middle East.