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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
ET2050
Discussion Note
SPQR Form Sample
Purpose: To normalise description of models to be used in ET2050
Version: 2
Date: 24 October 2011
Author: Andreu Ulied
Revision: Oriol Biosca
Status: -
Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
NAME
TT-MoSAIC
BACKGROUND
Last update
Developer
Developed in the project
Ownership
Main applications
2011
MCRIT based on TT previous developments.
7th EU Framework Programme (INTERCONNECT)
MCRIT co-financed by EC. No commercialised.
TT is the best state-of-the-practice transport-oriented forecast
model available at EU level. DGMOVE has required the
application of TRANSTOOL model in all studies carried out
during the last years in the process to redefine the Transeuropean
transport networks and the new Transport White Book 20102020. TT model is being continuously improved in different
projects of the 7th European Framework Programme. In the
INTERCONNECT (2010) MCRIT developed the TT-MSAIC
model, based on TT trip generation and distribution results, being
also applied in ORIGAMI (2011-2012) to assess four different
transport policy-scenarios for 2030.
Documents of reference
Scientific papers
INTERCONNECT Final Report (www.interconnect-project.eu)
TRA2012 “Impacts of improving interconnectivity between local
and long-distance transport networks in Europe: Conclusions
from the modelling activities in the INTERCONNECT 7th EU
Framework Programme project”
12 hours
16 Gb
Results can be provided in MDB format
BridgesNIS (proprietary software programmed in C++ by
MCRIT) linked to most GIS packages, specially Geomedia
Intergraph. Tutorial and guide under development.
Running time
Size of total results
Data exchange format
Software platform
SAMPLES
Reference data from
Data used for calibration
Data inputs
2005
TT-MoSAIC internal parameters are calibrated with TT 2005.
Multimodal Transport Networks (25.000 links) including detailed
intermodal exchanges and proxy to long-distance passenger
services. Information restricted.
TENCONNECT socioeconomic, trip generation and distribution
databases 2005-2020-2030 produced by TRANSTOOLS for
baseline scenarios at NUTS3 level. Publically available
information.
POSTULATES
Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
Forecast reliable up to
Geographic coverage
Adm. desegregation
Thematic scope
Theory of TT-MSAIC
2030
EU27 and neighboring countries
NUTS3
Passengers (freight not included)
Integrated modal split and assignment for passengers applied to
TT trip distribution matrices
4-steps passenger and freight transport model see:
http://energy.jrc.ec.europa.eu/transtools/
Theory of
TRANSTOOLS (TT)
QUERIES
Transport supplyoriented policies
How infrastructure provision (new links and connections) will
reduce traffic congestion?, induce modal shifts?, change energy
consumptions and emissions?, accidents?, increase accessibility?
How changes in prices for transport passenger services may
reduce traffic congestion?, induce modal shifts?, change energy
consumptions and emissions?
How changes on vehicle technologies may reduce traffic
congestion?, induce modal shifts?, change energy consumptions
and emissions?, accidents?
Transport market
regulatory policies
Technologic innovation
R E S U L T S (Main families of indicators)
Transport endowment
Infrastructure investment
Costs of travelling
Time of travelling
Accessibility
Trips
Modal shares
Modal chains
Traffic congestion
Emissions
Typical graphic output
(maps, diagrams)
Aggregated, by NUTS3, by mode
Aggregated, by NUTS3, by mode
Between NUTS3 by trip purpose using optimal transport chains
Between NUTS3 by trip purpose (business, leisure, visit)
Surface, people or activities (GDP) at a given distance or time or
cost from a given place
Between NUTS3 by trip purpose (business, leisure, visit)
% trips between NUTS3 by trip purpose (business, leisure, visit)
% length or time or cost between NUTS3 by trip purpose
(business, leisure, visit)
Hours/year of congestion on main roads
CO2 by network link, aggregated at NUTS3 or NUTS0
Maps with traffics and congestion levels on transport links
Accessibility maps displayed by 5x5 km2 cells
Maps with patterns for NUTS3
Time lines for key indicators aggregated at different scales
ADAPTATIONS PLANED IN THE FRAME OF ET2050
Sample
Postulates
Questions
Update with TEN_T (foreseen Octobre 2011)
Link to foresight metamodels to mode freight transport
- How changes in population, economic growth and travel
behaviour may induce different mobility flows and patterns
Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
Results
- future MoSAIC versions may provide trip Origin–Destination
matrices for ET2050 alternative scenarios.
- The socioeconomic profitability of new infrastructure
investments.
Calculation of a proxy for CBA for infrastructure projects
INTERACTION WITH OTHER ET2050 MODELS
Potential inputs from
Can provide outputs for
MULTIPOLES population forecasts
MASST GDP economic forecasts
METRONOMICA (to be discussed)
SASI population, GDP, transport networks
Transport outputs to the SASI Model
DATA IN NON EU27 COUNTRIES
ESPON space countries
(Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
and Lichtenstein)
Accession countries
(Western Balkans and Turkey)
Neighbouring countries
Networks and travel data available, at a lower resolution than in
EU27 countries. Data available for all ESPON partner countries
Networks and travel data available, at a lower resolution than in
EU27 countries. Data available for Western Balkans and Turkey
Networks and travel data available, at a lower resolution than in
EU27 countries. Data available for Ukraine, Belarus, Russia. No
data available for Northern Africa nor Middle East.