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ANNEX 2 RURAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW 1. INTRODUCTION Objectives and Scope 1.1 The purpose of this rural sector Public Expenditure Review (PER) is to assist both the Government of Turkey and the World Bank to enhance the impact of rural development in Turkey. This annex provides a cross-agency picture of the magnitude and structure of public expenditures to the rural sector in Turkey, with reference where appropriate to comparator countries. It is intended that this analysis will inform future decisions over priority public expenditures for rural development and the shifts in expenditure allocations that are necessary to make the most effective use of available resources. 1.2 The rural PER examines public expenditure and performance in the rural sector over the period 1999-2003. Analysis of actual spending is restricted to capital investment and recurrent expenditures recorded by the State Planning Organization (SPO) and Ministry of Finance (MOF). The PER does not include analysis of agricultural subsidies and the impact of recent subsidy reforms - these are presented in a separate study.1 The health, education and housing sectors are also outside of the scope of this review. 1.3 The review covers both central and local government expenditures to the rural sector. For the purposes of this study, ‘rural’ is defined as covering: agriculture - including farmer support services such as extension and research, animal health, plant protection; forestry, erosion control, and other agri-environment programs; and, irrigation and other rural infrastructure - rural roads, water supply and sanitation, electricity. 1.4 The report is structured as follows. The remainder of this Section summarizes recent rural performance, including information on rural poverty and the role of agriculture, as well as details of the principal government agencies involved in rural areas. Section 2 briefly outlines recent government reforms in agriculture and strategic planning issues. Section 3 reviews public expenditure management, including a summary of recent reforms introduced by government. Section 4 reviews public expenditure trends in rural areas and provides an analysis of the composition of this expenditure by economic classification (capital and recurrent spending), by function, and by geographic region. Section 5 sets out the principal findings and recommendations of the study. Rural Poverty 1.5 Rural development, including both growth in agriculture and off-farm employment, is important for achieving poverty reduction in Turkey. It is estimated that 35 percent of Turkey’s population live in rural areas2. This is high relative to the rest of Europe and Central Asia, where on average 25 percent of the population is rural. The distribution of the rural 1 2 “Turkey: A Review of the Impact of the Reform of Agricultural Sector Subsidization”, World Bank, March 2004. Turkey 2000 Population Census, SIS. population varies considerably between provinces, ranging from 74 percent (Bartin) to 9 percent (Istanbul). What is important to note is that by all measures of poverty, the rural sector accounts for 50-60 percent of poor households in Turkey3. 1.6 The 2002 Household Budget Survey (SIS) shows that the relative poverty incidence in rural areas is almost twice that of urban areas - 20 percent of the rural population is defined as poor, compared to 11 percent of the urban population. Other poverty incidences such as food and non-food poverty rate (22.0 percent for urban and 34.5 percent for rural), people living below US$ 2.15 per capita per day (2.4 percent in urban and 4.1 percent for rural) as well as people living below US$ 4.3 per capita per day is 24.6 percent in urban and 38.8 percent in rural areas) all show similar differences. Rural communities also lag behind their urban counterparts in measures of human development4. The 2002 survey shows the most significant determinants of household poverty in Turkey are education, employment status, and whether or not the household is located in a rural or urban area. Overall, 37 percent of households whose principal economic activity derives from the agricultural and natural resources sector (defined as agriculture, hunting, forestry and fisheries) are poor, and face the greatest risk of poverty of any group. Rural Sector Performance 1.7 A recent study estimates that the rural sector contributes 30-35 percent of GDP5. This compares with a share of agriculture in GDP for comparator countries as follows: Brazil – 11 percent; Poland – 29 percent; Mexico - 24 percent; China – 24 percent; and India – 28 percent. In Turkey, the rural share of GDP in 54 provinces out of 81 is greater than 50 percent. In fact when one excludes Marmara region, the remaining regions together have a rural share of GDP of almost 47 percent and the agricultural share of GDP ranges from 15-30 percent. (The same phenomenon is operative in other countries in which their main industrial and service sector region is excluded, e.g, Sao Paulo state in Brazil.) The study found that rural GDP is growing more slowly than the rest of the economy and the relative share of rural value-added from agriculture has been declining in recent years. Table 1 - Comparator Country GDPs Country Rural Population Share 72% 63% 49% 38% 35-40% 36% Rural GDP Share Agricultural GDP Share 23% 15% 6% 4% 13% 5% National GDP Per Capita (Atlas) US$ India 28% 460 China 24% 890 Brazil* 11% 3,070 Mexico* 24% 5,530 Turkey 30-35% 2,530 Poland 29% 4,230 *Rural GDP shares for Brazil and Mexico are expanded ag. figures including food and processed products . Source: WB SIMA Tables, Own Calculations. 1.8 Given the low agricultural share of GDP (12 percent), the relatively high share of rural GDP indicates that the rural off-farm economy is fairly developed. In addition, the variation of the relative size of the rural off-farm economy is not high as it ranges from a low of 53 percent in the Black Sea region to a high of 66 percent in the Central Anatolia region. In sum, 3 2000 Census and 2002 Poverty Study (State Institute of Statistics). See also, press release of 13/04/2004 on the SIS website: http://www.die.gov.tr/ENGLISH/SONIST/YOKSL/200404/200404.htm 4 Turkey: Economic Reforms, Living Standards, and Social Welfare Study, World Bank, January 2000. 5 See ‘TURKEY A Review of the Impact of the Reform of Agricultural Sector Subsidization’ Annex 3, World Bank, March 2004. the rural sector is large and off-farm GDP is the main source of rural income. However, compared to Poland which has a similar land tenure pattern, a comparable population active in agriculture (28 percent in 2001) and relatively the same share of agricultural value added per hectare (roughly USD 600/ha), the off-farm sector in Turkey is much smaller. 1.9 This is because the industrial and service sectors need to expand further in rural areas, as they have in Poland over the 1990s. Over the last 25 years, industry’s share of GDP in Turkey has risen from 17 percent to 25 percent (having reached as high as 37 percent in 1996) and that of the service sector has risen from 50 to 63 percent. Agriculture has performed poorly over the same period, and agriculture’s share of total GDP has fallen quickly from 34 percent in 1970 to 12 percent in 2003. The declining share of agriculture within GDP is typical as a country develops, since land availability generally limits growth of agricultural GDP, while industrial and services sectors are not as constrained by fixed factors of production. 1.10 What is problematic in Turkey is that the growth of jobs in the urban and off-farm sectors has not been sufficient to accommodate a larger shift of labor out of agriculture. In 2002-2003, agriculture continued to employ over 35 percent of the country’s total workforce. At the same time, land and labor productivity in agriculture have been stagnant 6, suggesting that Turkey has failed to benefit widely enough from global advances in agricultural technical efficiency. Thus, as long as labor demand outside the agricultural sector is relatively weak, and a large proportion of the total workforce is employed in an agricultural sector with lagging productivity, rural development policy will need to focus as much on increasing agricultural productivity as generating off-farm employment if rural income growth is to accelerate and contribute to poverty reduction more broadly in Turkey. 1.11 Table 2 shows recent performance of the agriculture sector relative to the rest of the economy. The impact of the recent economic crisis has been especially noticeable in the agriculture sector. In 2001, while total GDP fell by 7.4 percent in real terms, agricultural income fell by more than 22 percent. But agriculture made considerable recovery in 2002, and 2003 growing by 7.1 percent and 7.6 percent respectively. Table 2 - Agriculture Performance 1999 – 2003 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 GDP (TL trillion, 1999 prices) GDP growth in 1999 prices 75,101 -4.9% 79,203 5.5% 73,326 -7.4% 78,915 7.6% 83,468 5.8% Agric GDP (TL trillion, 1999 prices) Real Agric. Income growth in 1999 prices* 11,301 -17.7% 11,268 -0.3% 8,700 -22.8% 9,319 7.1% 10,026 7.6% Share of GDP Agriculture Industry Services / other 15.0% 22.6% 62.4% 14.2% 23.5% 62.3% 11.9% 25.1% 63.0% 11.8% 25.2% 63.0% 12.0% 24.8% 63.2% 37.6 17.5 44.9 34.9 18.5 46.6 35.4 17.8 46.8 Employment by sector (%) Agriculture 40.2 36.0 Industry 17.2 17.7 Services / other 42.7 46.3 * Change in agricultural GDP by using GDP Deflator. Sources: State Planning Organization, State Institute of Statistics. 6 See H. Akder, H. Kasnakoglu and E. Cakmak ‘Turkey: Sources of Growth in Turkish Agriculture’, April 2000. 1.12 Besides investment in irrigation and other infrastructure, the state has traditionally supported rural areas through a wide range of agricultural subsidies (especially credit and fertilizer) and direct government involvement in agricultural production, agro-processing, and marketing. Fiscal subsidies to the agriculture sector reached over 3 percent of GDP in 1999 this was at a time when agriculture contributed just 14 percent of GDP. 1.13 Such pervasive government intervention in agriculture has had negative consequences for the rural economy. It subsidized inefficient production technologies, discouraged production in sub-sectors where Turkey has comparative advantage, and hindered private sector involvement in rural markets. Moreover, the benefits of this policy tended to be captured by the larger farmers and more affluent regions of the country. 1.14 Since 2000, government has been reforming its rural and agricultural support policies. This has involved the reduction or elimination of subsidies and, in partial compensation for these subsidy reductions, the introduction of a Direct Income Support (DIS) Program. At the same time government is gradually withdrawing from marketing and processing activities and cooperatives are being restructured. This has resulted in a dramatic reduction of net fiscal transfers to agriculture, which fell to 0.7 percent of GDP by 2003. 1.15 Turkey’s National Development Plan for 2004-2006 emphasizes accelerated rural development for achieving national objectives of economic growth and poverty reduction. Achieving these objectives is likely to require further investments in rural infrastructure and in sustainable rural institutions that deliver critical services (technology transfer, rural credit, marketing, processing). In this respect, the challenge for government is to define priority areas where it can lead and other areas where it can promote private sector initiative. 1.16 Growing inequality between regions is explained both by differences in the sectoral structure of production and in agricultural productivity. The lagging regions have more resources employed in agriculture and also in less productive sub-sectors of agriculture. Income levels in the richer provinces (Marmara, major port cities around the Aegean and Mediterranean coast) are converging, while poor provinces are falling further behind. Unlike in Western Europe, state transfers have played little role in equalizing incomes at the individual or household level. On the contrary, previous government support to agriculture in the form of input and price subsidies disproportionately benefited large farmers, and contributed to income inequality and the widening of absolute income differentials in rural areas. However, the government recognizes the problem of regional inequalities, and is attempting to address this through targeted spending (see Section 4.77- 4.79). Sector Institutions 1.17 Public spending to the rural sector is channeled through both central and local government agencies. This section provides an overview of the principal agencies responsible for rural sector spending, and a brief outline of current proposals for decentralized government. Central Government 1.18 Central government in Turkey is administered through a series of ministries and affiliated agencies. Ministries have field offices at provincial and district levels, 7 which are 7 When coordination or efficiency makes it necessary to create an organization of a field activity beyond the limits of a single province, administrative divisions covering several provinces may be created. This is the case for example of DSI, GDRS and also under the authority of the provincial governors (vali) and district sub-governors (kaymakam). The provincial administration operates on the principle of de-concentration (i.e. a delegation of power from the central administration to the provincial level). Provincial governors and sub-governors are appointed by central government and have authority over the field offices of the central administration. 1.19 The State Planning Organization (SPO) is part of the Office of the Prime Minister. It is responsible for advising and coordinating the activities of ministries and public institutions on economic, social and cultural policies, and preparing long-term development plans and annual programs. 1.20 The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) is the lead agency responsible for policy and public services for agriculture and rural development. It has four service directorates: TUGEM (Agricultural Production Development General Directorate): agricultural support policies, livestock development and implementation of various donor-funded projects. KKGM (Protection and Control General Directorate): regulatory functions, including animal health, crop protection and quarantine services. TEDGEM (Organization and Support General Directorate): education and extension services, and permits for cooperatives. TAGEM (Agricultural Research General Directorate): publicly funded agricultural research undertaken through a number of research institutes. 1.21 The General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS) was established in 1984 by merging three directorates: YSE (Rural Roads, Drinking Water and Electricity), Topraksu (Soil and Irrigation Works), Toprak Iskan (Land and Settlement). It is responsible for the provision of rural infrastructure services and (since 2001) reports to MARA. GDRS is mainly involved in the construction of rural roads, and developing ground and surface water resources for small irrigation and drainage schemes. It also provides safe drinking water to villages, and land consolidation and resettlement services. 1.22 The General Directorate of Highways (GDH)8 is responsible for the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways. It is an annex budget organization affiliated to Ministry of Public Works and Settlement. 1.23 The General Directorate of Hydraulic Works (DSI) reports to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. It is responsible for planning, constructing and managing large-scale water resources for irrigation, drinking water and hydraulic energy. 1.24 The Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MOEF) was established in May 2003 by merging the Ministry of Forestry and Ministry of Environment. Its responsibilities include: environment management, environmental assessment and planning, forestation and erosion control, village forest relations, and the management of national parks. Reporting to MOEF, the General Directorate of Forests (GDF) is the principal agency responsible for the management of national forest resources. It is an annexed budget organization and majority GDH, whose territorial units are organized as regions comprising a number of provinces. These regions vary among organizations. 8 Provincial roads for which GDH is responsible are considered as rural in this study as they are located mainly in rural areas. of its activities are funded through a revolving fund (through the sale of timber and other forest resources). 1.25 The Turkish Electricity Distribution Company (TEDAS) is the state electricity agency. Following the economic reforms of the mid-1980s there are now many privately owned firms also involved in the electricity sector. The distribution system currently served by TEDAS has been divided into 25 regions and long-term operating rights have been awarded to private investors in 14 of these regions. Local Government 1.26 There are three forms of local administration in Turkey: Special Provincial Administrations (SPA), municipalities, and villages. These are democratic governmental organizations established outside of the central administration, based on the principle of decentralization and with responsibility for the provision of local public services. They are locally elected and have their own budgets. Local administrations are coordinated by the Ministry of Interior through its General Directorate of Local Authorities. 1.27 By the size of their budget, Municipalities are by far the most important level of local administration. A municipality must be set up in all province and district centers, regardless of their population. In addition, all settlements of over 2,000 inhabitants can request to set up a municipality subject to approval from central government. The municipal population elects the municipal council and the mayor. Core services provided by Municipalities include urban transportation, water supply and wastewater management, and solid waste collection and disposal9. 1.28 There are a total of 3,225 municipalities in Turkey. Most of them, however, are very small and more akin to villages and rural areas than urban centers. Overall, the average size of municipalities is 17,000 residents. Half of the urban population lives in eight ‘greater municipalities’, each of which includes several municipalities and has a total population over 600,000 residents. Municipalities of less than 20,000 inhabitants - which, together with villages, can be approximated as ‘rural’ - account for 20 percent of total municipal spending. 1.29 Villages do not fall under the jurisdiction of municipalities, but are governed by an elected village headman (muhtar) and an elected council of village elders. Currently there are 35,140 villages. The village headman, as chief village executive, not only represents his village and takes responsibility for local services, but also acts as the representative of central government. While the law establishes a number of responsibilities for village administrations, in practice many of these are carried out, even if sporadically, by the provincial offices of central government agencies. 1.30 The creation of Special Provincial Administrations (SPA) can be traced back to the late Ottoman period. Each province has an SPA. The decision-making body is the provincial council, composed of elected members on behalf of districts. SPAs are subject to the de facto control of the provincial governors (not elected but nominated), who are heads of the provincial council and whose ratification is required for all decisions and the budget. The functions assigned by law to the SPA are very broad (including health and social assistance, public works, education, and agriculture). In practice, SPAs perform these tasks only to a limited extent, partly because they do not have the necessary resources and partly because the 9 Other responsibilities include sanitary control inspection of food markets, establishment and management of parks and recreational facilities, municipal clinics and welfare facilities, etc. central administration and its field offices often carry out these functions. Most SPA spending goes to rural areas - specifically to villages and small municipalities that have limited budgets. Decentralization 1.31 Government is currently reviewing a draft law to shift responsibility for the provision of certain services to local administrations10. If this law is accepted, a number of important rural services will shift to the responsibility of local administrations. These include services provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Ministry of Environment and Forests, and some public works and health services. As part of these reforms, GDRS is to be abolished. Regional offices and field staff of these ministries (including GDRS) will be merged with local administration. Sayistay (Court of Accounts) will be responsible for external auditing of both central and local administrations, and will have power to establish regional and/or functional departments. 1.32 Decentralization aims to improve the quality of services by making them more demand-driven and service providers more accountable to service beneficiaries. However, experience from elsewhere in the world indicates that decentralized government does not necessarily result in improved quality of services. Care is needed in the implementation of reforms. Particular dangers to avoid include: 2. Reforms being implemented in such a way as to maintain central government dominance over decision-making, resulting in limited local empowerment; Benefit capture by local elites, who are successful in directing public expenditure to their advantage. It is also important to recognize that the management of natural resources has effects that extend beyond the immediate locality. For this reason, the natural resources, and rural sector more broadly, may require continued and active oversight from central government. RURAL SECTOR POLICY Recent Reforms 2.1 Prior to economic reforms in 2001, Turkey’s agricultural policy was based on a system of producer subsidies, agricultural price support and import protection, combined with extensive government involvement in agricultural production, processing and marketing. The high cost of government interventions in the sector was financially unsustainable and appeared to have little impact in reversing the trend of declining agricultural productivity. 2.2 Table 3 shows the cost of expenditure allocations to agriculture in the form of producer subsidies and price support from 1999-2002. Before 2001, PSE was mainly formed of tariff protection and price support programs. With the initiation of reforms including direct income subsidy program, indirect support and cost to consumers declined. Analysis of subsidy incidence shows larger commercial farmers have mainly captured the benefits of this pre-reform policy, while small farmers have received little direct benefit. 10 This law is a framework law and all the detailed restructuring is going to be made with additional regulations. Another law on local administrations is also being prepared and the type of functions and responsibilities of each level of local authority is going to be determined via this law. Table 3 - Support to Agriculture (%) 1999 Producer Subsidy Estimate11 23 Consumer Subsidy Estimate12 -22 Total Transfer Estimate (as share of GDP)13 6.51 Source: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/34/4/32361171.xls 2000 21 -22 5.32 2001 5 -3 2.84 2002 20 -17 4.44 2.3 In 2000 Government embarked upon a wide-ranging economic reform program. Aimed to tackle high inflation and volatile exchange rates, the reform program required a reduction of government expenditures in all sectors. In agriculture, these reforms focused upon reducing the level of subsidies, and improving the targeting and allocative efficiency of remaining transfers14. 2.4 Reforms to agricultural policy focused on two broad areas. The first was the phasing out of subsidies for fertilizer, credit and price support, and the introduction of a national program of Direct Income Support (DIS). This provides farmers with a uniform per hectare payment (roughly US$ 90/ha) that is decoupled from the production of any specific crop. This was done to compensate for the removal of the old subsidy system and to provide income support to the rural sector, but in an incentive-neutral way. 2.5 The second area for reform has involved the commercialization and privatization of national parastatal enterprises, including those engaged in sugar, tobacco and alcohol, and tea, and restructuring of the state grain purchasing company. Agricultural sales cooperative unions (ASCUs) are also being restructured to remove them from direct government influence and place them more effectively under their members’ control. 2.6 By the end of 2003, the reform program reduced the fiscal outlays on agricultural subsidies to US$ 0.7 billion. This represents a savings of roughly 2.7 percent of GDP. DIS payments, reached US$ 1.25 billion in 2002 and US$ 1.56 billion in 2003. The large difference between the fiscal savings from the agricultural transfer (subsidy and DIS) reform program (US$ 3.8 billion) and the net income loss to farmers (US$ 1.1 billion) reflects the inefficiencies of the pre-reform agricultural subsidies in supporting farmers’ income. 2.7 Between 1999 and 2002, agricultural income fell by 16 percent (US$ 2.7 billion), while agricultural output declined by only 4 percent. The cuts in agricultural subsidies lowered agricultural commodity prices and raised input prices, bringing both closer to world price levels. By doing so, the cuts in agricultural subsidies realigned downward the profitability of agriculture that had been pushed artificially high by fiscally unsustainable subsidies. Prices of the highly regulated crops (tobacco, sugar beet and hazelnut and grain) fell the most. 2.8 A rural Quantitative Household Survey (QHS) in 2002, conducted under the Agricultural Reform Implementation Project (ARIP), found that DIS payments accounted for 7 to 8 percent of household income. Given the evolution of the ratio of net agricultural income to gross agricultural income over the reform period, it appears from the QHS results PSE is a measure of the part of producers’ agricultural revenue which accrues from market price support-farm gate prices relative to border prices, as well as support to farmers through payments based on output, input usage and land acreage, etc. 12 CSE, when negative, is a measure of support, which is paid by consumers through consumer prices, which are above border prices. 13 TSE is the sum of PSE and a measure of farmers’ indirect support through subsidies not provided on the basis of outputs or inputs (such as marketing, promotion, training, research and development, etc.) 14 See ‘TURKEY A Review of the Impact of the Reform of Agricultural Sector Subsidization’ World Bank, gray cover March 2004. 11 that the DIS program replaced 40 percent in 2002 and 50 percent in 2003 of the net income loss, which farmers have experienced as a result of the reforms. The results also indicate that the impact of the DIS program on farmer’s welfare has been positive: one million TL paid in DIS generates approximately TL 2.5 million in net agricultural income. Strategic Planning For Rural Development 2.9 Strategic planning in Turkey is highly centralized. The State Planning Organization (SPO) prepares five-year development plans as well as annual programs and accompanying investment programs. Both annual and investment programs are prepared in coordination with line ministries and Treasury. Current reforms to strengthen strategic planning will give line ministries greater responsibility for developing sector plans. SPO has already embarked upon a program of training staff from selected line ministries in strategic planning techniques. Also National Rural Development Strategy is in the process of construction by MARA as part of EU pre-accession activities. 2.10 The National Development Plan (2004-06) places considerable emphasis on accelerated rural development. The NDP identifies the following priorities for rural development Increasing employment and income generating activities in rural areas; Strengthening capacity towards efficient utilization of natural resources; Increasing the living standards of the rural population through the application of modern (productivity enhancing) agricultural techniques; Creating employment in diverse livelihood opportunities (including tourism, textiles, handcrafts, and forestry products) and promoting these in disadvantaged areas; Promoting of SMEs, together with supporting micro-finance and marketing; Reducing inter-regional and intra-regional disparities, including reducing migration from rural areas to urban areas; Strengthening participatory approaches through vocational training, extension and consulting services. 2.11 Turkey currently implements just one regional rural development program through the Southeastern Anatolia Regional GAP Administration (GAP RDA), but does not have any other dedicated regional development organizations (see Appendix 2). In the past, SPO has prepared other regional development plans, but these have not been implemented as funding has not been made available through the budget process (for example, the development plans for East Anatolia and Black Sea regions). SPO has started preparations to implement 2 regional development projects co-funded by grant support from the EU, both of which focus upon support to local development initiatives, SMEs, and small-scale infrastructure: Samsun, Kastamonu and Erzurum Development Project (52 million Euro); and East Anatolia Development Project (45 million Euro). 2.12 Government has also prepared a medium-term agriculture policy paper setting out the priorities for government support to the sector over 2006-2010. This emphasizes: Improving agricultural productivity, and raising the contribution of agriculture in rural incomes; Using participatory approaches to determine service priorities; Reducing further the role of the state in agriculture - through further cuts in transfer payments and government involvement in procurement activities; Aligning government support to the sector with WTO and EU rules and regulations; Supporting the development of self-sustaining agricultural producer unions; and, Supporting greater private sector involvement in the provision of services in rural areas. 2.13 Balance between development and social objectives. An important policy issue for government is achieving an appropriate balance between ‘productive’ policies (aimed at rural growth and enhancing productivity) and ‘distributional’ policies (targeting the poor). In this regard, it will be important to assess the impact of recent reforms on service and market access for small farmers in remote rural areas. 2.14 Affordability. It is not clear how the priority interventions proposed by government are to be executed. There is also a question over the capacity of central line agencies and local administrations effectively to utilize public funds. Given limited resources, strategic planning exercises by the key implementing ministries, agencies and general directorates therein are required to refine the core activities for government funding to rural development in the context of productivity boosting and poverty reduction objectives. 2.15 Need for a coordinated approach. Performance in agriculture, and rural development more generally, are affected by a range of government spending and require a coordinated approach between government (central and local), the private sector, NGOs and others. For example, non-agricultural spending such as on rural roads is likely to have a major impact upon opportunities for the development of agriculture. In the absence of a clear policy for rural development the costing and prioritization of rural development expenditures are not well coordinated. The need for a coordinated approach to rural development will become increasingly important as decentralization proceeds. 2.16 Role of government. Government has made significant progress in redefining its role in agriculture relative to other players. To date this has focused upon a reduction in state transfers to agriculture, and reduced state involvement in agricultural production and procurement activities. In the longer-term government should only intervene in agriculture to correct for instances of market failure and to address specific social objectives (poverty reduction). 2.17 It is also important that government consider how best to deliver its core agricultural services in the context of proposed decentralization reforms, as well as options for contracting out service delivery to the private sector. Decentralization of agricultural services will require clear identification of roles for central and local administrations. Meanwhile, options for the contacting out of service delivery depend upon how quickly capacity develops in the private and non-government sector (especially in less developed regions), as well the trade-offs between potential efficiency gains of contracted-out delivery on the one hand, and the costs of monitoring and regulating on the other. 2.18 Effectiveness and efficiency. For government agencies to strengthen their future claim on public resources for spending to rural development, it is important that they demonstrate effectiveness and efficiency (value-for-money) in the services they provide to the sector. This issue is relevant across all government agencies. Analysis of the efficiency with which government services to agriculture and the rural sector are provided is prevented by a complete absence of data on costs and quality of services. There is also little needs assessment undertaken in the design of rural development programs, with the result that interventions tend to be supply- rather than demand-driven. These are issues that sector agencies should seek to address if they wish to strengthen their future claim on public resources. Decentralization reforms provide an opportunity to address these issues through strengthened participatory planning and capacity building to record systematically information on the costs of service delivery and outcomes achieved. 2.19 Wider impact of public spending to agriculture. Strengthening the claim for public resources allocated to agriculture also requires an understanding of the links between spending to agriculture and wider economic growth and poverty reduction. There have been many international studies of the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth, some of which show positive growth and poverty reduction effects from public spending in agriculture (see Box 1). Box 1 - Agricultural Spending and Economic Growth – A Review of the Evidence A recent study of public expenditure in 43 developing countries shows average spending to agriculture falling from 9.8 percent of agricultural GDP in 1980, to 7.9 percent of agricultural GDP in 1998 (Fan and Rao, 2003)15. This compares public spending to agriculture for developed countries of around 20 percent of agricultural GDP. The Africa and Latin America regions experienced a fall in spending to agriculture between 1980 and 1990 (the fall was especially sharp in Latin America), with some recovery of spending by 1998. Asia has experienced a more gradual but steady decline in spending in agriculture, falling from 9.6 percent of agricultural GDP in 1980 to 8.2 percent in 1998. But what has been the impact of public spending to agriculture? The analysis by Fan and Rao (2003) suggests that public spending to agriculture has a significant positive impact on agricultural GDP, with investments in rural infrastructure (primarily irrigation and roads) and agricultural research contributing most strongly to this growth. This is supported by other studies that suggest investment in productivity-enhancing agricultural research has a larger output-promoting effect than other forms of public spending to agriculture (including subsidies). Fan and Rao show that overall the impact of government spending in different sectors is mixed. However, in Africa, government spending on agriculture and health has been particularly strong in promoting economic growth. In Asia, investment in agriculture has also had strong growth effects (together with education and defense). The study also found growth in agricultural production to be the most crucial element in addressing poverty in rural areas. Several lessons can be drawn: 15 Governments should consider increasing spending in agriculture, particularly on productionenhancing investments such as agricultural research and rural infrastructure. This type of spending not only yields high returns to agricultural production, but also has a large impact on poverty reduction since most of the poor still reside in rural areas and their main source of livelihood is agriculture. Sector spending has differential impacts on economic growth, implying that there is potential to improve efficiency of government spending by reallocation among sectors. The estimated returns to agricultural research are as high now as they ever were, and high enough to justify greater investment of public funds. Fan, Shenggen; Rao, Neetha. 2003. Public spending in developing countries: (Discussion Paper) Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 3. EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT 3.1 The Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (PEIR) carried out in 2001 highlighted major weaknesses in the management of public expenditures. Although government has subsequently made progress in improving budget systems, many deficiencies identified in the PEIR are relevant to the rural sector institutions for most of the period under review (1999-2003). 3.2 Information on rural sector expenditures is fragmented and presented in a way that makes it difficult to analyze and interpret in a meaningful way. The lack of an overarching policy for rural development and weak coordination between rural sector interventions is compounded by the following problems: Despite efforts to rationalize the ‘consolidated budget’ of central government16, a significant number of special funding arrangements continue to be actively used by rural sector agencies. This includes some very large revolving funds for managing agency revenues – for example in forestry; Spending to rural areas is fragmented amongst a large number of agencies, often with overlapping mandates. A significant portion of the budget reported as ‘transfers’ is in fact the movement of funds from one agency to another, rather than transfers to nonpublic entities. This conceals the true policy and program nature of expenditure. Budget transparency would be improved by directly appropriating resources to the ultimate spending agency; Only economic and administrative classifications of expenditure are available. The absence of functional and program classifications is a major handicap to linking policies and budgets and monitoring and evaluating budget implementation. 3.3 Linkages between policies and strategic planning and the budget are weak. A major weakness of the Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP) prepared by SPO is that it does not provide an estimate of the fiscal costs of plan proposals, thus weakening the linkage of policy proposals to the budget. The high inflation environment compresses budgetary time horizons and discourages longer term fiscal planning - this is especially problematic for the planning of long-term rural development programs. So far, Turkey does not use a multi-year budget framework and only prepares annual budgets. The FYDP is translated into an annual program statement prepared by SPO highlighting plan priorities for the coming year. However, there are difficulties in translating this annual program into meaningful budget allocations, in particular due to the fragmentation of information and budgets and a weak budget coding and classification system. 3.4 The linkage between the investment budget and the recurrent budget is weak. Budget responsibilities are divided between SPO (investment), MOF (personnel and other recurrent expenditures) and Treasury (transfers). SPO oversees all investments from agencies under the consolidated budget, State Owned Enterprises (SOE), special funds, autonomous agencies and investment by local administrations which relies on foreign funding. Overprogramming of investment has been a longstanding problem, with an excessive number of projects relative to resource availability. In the rural sector (and elsewhere) resources are spread thinly over a large number of projects, with substantial delays in project 16 The term Consolidated Budget, as used in Turkey, refers to the aggregate of items in the General Budget and the Annexed Budget which is submitted for Parliamentary review and approval. implementation and completion. There is also little evidence that completed projects receive adequate and timely funding for operations and maintenance from the recurrent budget. 3.5 The budget preparation process has little credibility with line agencies, who view it mainly as an administrative requirement to obtain incremental funding for their ongoing activities. Partly due to the high turnover of governments, policy formulation has been neglected for many years both at the center and in line ministries. As a consequence, line agencies have little policy guidance for the formulation of their budget. Until 2001, ministries and other agencies did not receive either any indication on budget ceilings until very late in the budget process, which generated frustration when top-down ceilings had to be reconciled with bottom-up budget requests. At the same time, the need to curb macroeconomic instability has led to severe fiscal constraints allowing very little scope for discretionary decisions in the budget. Under these circumstances, budget preparation is largely a nonstrategic accounting exercise. 3.6 Budget implementation in Turkey is characterized by multiple sources of funding, complex budget allocation procedures and the issue of visas (authority to incur expenditure) not only by MOF, but also by the Turkish Court of Accounts (TCA). This system of multiple ex-ante approvals is extremely rigid and hampers budget execution, thereby providing a strong incentive for agencies to seek to develop off-budget sources of funding. It emphasizes compliance with existing financial regulations, but provides no assurance that waste, inefficiency and diversion of funds are minimized.17 3.7 TCA is the Supreme Audit Institution of Turkey, in charge of auditing the accounts of all agencies under the general and annexed budgets. Each ministry has its own inspectorate and a variety of other bodies also have diverse auditing responsibilities. The external audit reports focus on compliance with regulations but give little attention to assessing performance or efficiency. Despite the plethora of audit bodies, audit coverage is uneven with some entities audited by several inspectors and auditors, whereas some others escape audit altogether due to inadequate mandate of audit institutions or inadequate capacity or willingness to fulfill audit mandates. 3.8 Following the PEIR, Government has taken important steps towards: (i) improving budget coverage and classification; (ii) enhancing the budget preparation process, restoring its credibility with line ministries and strengthening the capacity to formulate policies and budgets within a medium term perspective; and (iii) improving budget execution and financial accountability. The Public Financial Management and Control (PFMC) Law enacted in late 2003 provides a legal framework for structural and institutional reforms to upgrade public expenditure management in Turkey, which will take several years to be fully implemented and bear fruit. 3.9 The following steps have already been taken: 17 All budgetary funds18 (with the exception of the Support Price Stabilization Fund) and all but five non-budgetary funds19 were closed by early 2002. The legislation enacted to close these funds, however, still allows the Government to continue to collect these These problems are being addressed under the recently enacted Public Financial Management and Control (PFMC) Law (5018). This law also expands the mandate of TCA. 18 In 2000, there were a total of 62 budgetary funds. 19 In 2000, there was a total of 13 non-budgetary funds, most of which were closed in 2001 and 2002. The 5 remaining ones are: Privatization Fund, Defense Industry Support Fund, Social Aid Solidarity Fund, Promotion and Publicity Fund, Saving Deposit Insurance Fund. revenues (now called special revenues) and transfer them to the relevant agency’s account as a special appropriation. Starting in 2002, MOF has tested a new government expenditure classification in six pilot agencies. This budget classification, which is compatible with the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) system, will improve budget transparency by allowing for a comprehensive and consistent presentation of the budget across all general government agencies, with a complete functional breakdown of expenditures (in addition to economic and administrative breakdowns). The new GFS budget classification is expected to become fully operational for the entire government in the 2005 budget. The Prime Minister’s Call to the budget for 2002, included for the first time indicative ceilings for both the recurrent and investment budgets for ministries and line agencies. The Government has taken steps to limit the introduction of new projects into the public investment program and to clean up the portfolio of dormant projects. Budget reforms are also underway to build capacity for policy formulation and improve the performance of public agencies. In accordance with the PFMC law, all public administrations will be required to prepare strategic plans with measurable objectives and performance indicators, which will serve as a basis for the preparation of annual budgets and performance assessment. The SPO has issued guidelines for strategic planning by key line ministries and departments including guidelines for costing policies. Eight institutions have been selected as pilots for 2004 – among which the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) – to prepare strategic plans by mid-2004 with support from SPO. A new public procurement law was enacted in January 2002, with a set of technical amendments adopted in mid-2003. The independent Public Procurement Agency established under the law to oversee public procurement and ensure enforcement of the new procurement standards became operational in 2003. The PFMC law provides for a clarification of institutional responsibilities for internal and external financial control and audit. It is expected that: (i) there will be a gradual shift from a system of central (external) financial control to a system of financial control that is internal to public administration units; and (ii) TCA will discontinue involvement in budget execution and focus on ex-post audits, including performance audits, with its mandate for external audit extended to all general government agencies. 3.10 Most of the improvements described above will contribute to enhancing budget transparency and facilitating its implementation. Efforts are also being made to improve the linkages between policy, planning, and the budget. 3.11 Issues related to the role and size of public administration also have to be confronted. Initial steps have been taken to rationalize public employment through a partial freeze on recruitment by government line agencies and a reduction of redundancies in state enterprises. There is still a need to address this issue in a broader perspective – by clarifying roles and responsibilities of public administrations and considering the scope for transferring some responsibilities to the private sector. 4. RURAL SECTOR EXPENDITURE Note on the Data 4.1 Rural development is affected by the level and effectiveness of a wide range of public spending. This review covers public spending to the rural sector by five central government agencies20 (covering agriculture, water resources and irrigation, environment, and forests), and rural expenditure by local administrations (through municipalities, villages, and SPAs). The review does not include expenditure on social services to rural areas, such as health and education. 4.2 As indicated in Section 3, weaknesses in the way in which expenditures are recorded raises a number of difficulties that suggest prudence should be exercised in the interpretation of expenditure data. In particular: The distinction between recurrent and investment budgets is ambiguous – many investment activities are within the recurrent budget, and vice versa21; It is not easy to disaggregate expenditures by functional classification; There are still a multitude of off-budget expenditures that are not reflected in the consolidated budgets of the various agencies; and, Local administrations often provide some of the costs for activities implemented by central government agencies - for example, operational costs for some MARA and GDRS services. Sources of Funding 4.3 Before discussing public expenditure to the rural in detail, it is helpful first to briefly outline the major sources of funding to the sector. Sources of public funding comprise: Allocations to sector agencies from the consolidated budget (representing the majority of total funding) – including funding to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) active in the sector (declining) Funds generated by SOEs; Revolving funds and other special funds (declining but still significant in certain subsectors); Bank of Provinces (Iller Bank); and, Local administrations. 4.4 Overall, the consolidated budget dominates public spending, accounting for an estimated 90 percent of total spending across all sectors. The share of recorded development spending (investment) within total government spending is very small – approximately 5 percent of total spending. Within the investment budget, the share accounted for by central government (through the consolidated budget) grew from 46 percent in 1999, to almost 70 percent by 2002. This reflects efforts by government to reduce off-budget investment spending flows to SOEs and special funds (Appendix Table 6). 20 21 MARA, DSI, GDRS, MOEF, and GDF. This problem is being addressed through a new budget code and classification system introduced in the 2004 budget cycle. Figure 1 - Actual Investment Expenditures by Source of Funding (1999-2002) Investment Expenditures by Source of Funding Bank of Provinces 4% Revolving Funds 2% SOE 23% Funds (off budget) 6% SOE under privatization 5% Consolidated Budget 60% Source: State Planning Organization 4.5 While domestic resources constitute the major source of public funding, external funding accounts for a growing share of central government investment (rising from 13 to 29 percent of investment between 1999 and 2003). There is also some external funding that goes direct to local administrations; most of which goes to urban municipalities and is only recorded by SPO if it requires a guarantee by central government. 4.6 Besides their allocations under the consolidated budget, central government agencies have traditionally received revenues through special funds, comprising ‘budgetary’ (included in the budget) and ‘non-budgetary’ (off-budget) funds. These special funds proliferated in Turkey in the 1980s and 1990’s and were financed through earmarked excise taxes and levies. However, as indicated in Chapter 3, most of these special funds have been closed as MoF has sought to rationalize the budget. For many of these funds, corresponding financial allocations are now included in the consolidated budget and are subject to the same financial control and spending mechanisms. 4.7 Earmarking of revenues still persists in some cases, with the transfer of revenues (usually a small percentage) to the relevant agency as ‘special appropriations’ (sometimes referred to as ‘special accounts’). Special appropriations are not included in budget allocations at the start of the financial year, but are made during the year as revenues are collected. Spending against these accounts can only be made for designated activities and are reported in final budget expenditures. Most special appropriations are due to be abolished in 2005. 4.8 Government agencies that earn own-revenues typically manage these through revolving funds. Revolving funds are fully off-budget (revenues and expenditures are not included in the consolidated budget). Spending against these funds does not require ex-ante approval, but are subject to the same ex-post financial controls and audit procedures as expenditures under the consolidated budget. 4.9 A number of special funds are of relevance to the rural sector. MARA had several special funds (including a large ‘pasture fund’), all of which closed in 200222. MARA currently receives funding from just one non-budgetary fund, the ‘Social Aid Solidarity Fund’ (managed by the Prime Minister’s Office), for poverty-focused investment activities in agriculture. MARA also has a number of revolving funds that currently are active (193 funds in 2003). 4.10 The Ministry of Forestry had three non-budget funds (Forest Villages Development Fund, Forestation Fund, Fund for National Parks) that were closed in 2002, but which still operate as ‘special appropriations’. The General Directorate of Forests operates a large revolving fund funded by sales of national timber reserves (equivalent to twice the allocation to GDF from the consolidated budget). Other rural sector agencies (DSI, GDRS) also operate revolving funds, but these are reported to be small. 4.11 Government intends to close all revolving funds and to integrate these funding flows into the budget by 2007. While this will improve budget transparency, there are concerns that it may discourage agencies from collecting user-fees, and may also result in a reduction in funding for some services. To a large extent, the proliferation of revolving funds has been a way for government agencies to secure off-budget revenues and continue their activities despite shrinking government budget allocations and cumbersome budget spending mechanisms. Government agencies are also concerned that until the system of ex-ante approvals for budget expenditures is streamlined (in 2005), the closing of the various special funds will hamper operational flexibility (especially for agricultural activities where timing is essential). 4.12 It is recommended that reform of revolving funds should be undertaken on a case-bycase basis. Some funds are used to undertake activities that could and should be left to the private sector (this applies to some of the revolving funds currently managed by MARA, for example in the livestock and seed sub-sectors). Alternatively there may be a justification to retain funds that are tied to the provision of specific public services that have a pro-poor focus, provided that appropriate controls and mechanisms are in place to ensure accountability, transparency and efficiency of fund use. 4.13 Local administration revenues comprise: A share of central government tax revenue; Taxes and duties levied locally; User-charges and other revenues earned by local administrations; and, Special aids and funds. 4.14 By law, 6 percent of state tax revenues are allocated to municipalities in proportion to their population,23 while Special Provincial Administrations (SPAs) receive 1.12 percent of general tax revenues (also distributed in proportion to their population).24 Locally generated Four other special funds were previously managed by MARA: ‘State Aid Fund for Investment Activities of Agricultural Co-operatives’; ‘Handicraft Development Fund in Villages’; ‘Farmers and Co-operatives Educational Fund’; and ‘Fund for Farmers Harmed by National Disasters’. These funds received only small allocations before being closed in 2001/02. 23 Up until 2002 municipalities received an additional 3 percent from the ‘Municipalities Fund’ under the Ministry of Public Works, and 0.25 percent for the ‘Local Authorities Fund’ from the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Public Works. These additional allocations stopped in 2002. 24 Up until 2002, a further 0.28 percent was transferred to SPAs from the Ministry of Interior for investments by SPA, and 0.3 percent was granted to the ‘Local Authorities Fund’ by the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Public Works. These additional allocations stopped in 2002. However, special appropriations continue to be made to the Ministry of Interior for the 22 revenues include local taxes and duties, users-fees for municipal services, and other revenues received by local authorities. Local governments, especially SPA, also receive special funds as transfers from central government ministries, in particular the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Public Works. A local tax (salma) is collected by village authorities. Overall Expenditure Levels and Trends Central Government 4.15 Table 4 shows overall trends in expenditure from the consolidated budget, presented in constant 1999 prices. This represents the majority of total public spending (but excludes some spending by local administrations and SOEs, and off-budgetary funds)25. 4.16 The table shows total expenditure from the consolidated budget rising 34 percent in real terms from 1999 to 2002. In 2003, public expenditure from the consolidated budget contracted by 5 percent; a further contraction of 11 percent is forecast for 2004. 4.17 Since 1999, recurrent expenditure has consistently accounted for around 95 percent of total spending. This comprises significant spending on interest payments and other transfers, which account for around 45 percent and 25 percent of total spending respectively - personnel and other recurrent expenditure accounting for 25 percent of spending. This leaves just 5 percent for development (investment) activities. The share of expenditure on investment activities appears low - - compared to 13 percent for recent EU accession countries26 - but weaknesses in the way in which expenditures are recorded suggest that the recurrent budget may also include some investment spending. 4.18 Spending to rural sector agencies has fallen from 3.5 percent of the consolidated budget in 1999, to 3 percent of the budget in 200327. When other transfers to the rural sector (agricultural subsidies, income support) are included, the share rises to around 5-6 percent of the consolidated budget. The overall share of spending to the rural sector (a definition broader that agriculture alone) is low relative to other countries. The share of total public spending allocated to agriculture is typically around 6-8 percent for developing countries, and 3-5 percent for developed industrialized countries. Examples of the share of public spending to agriculture in comparator countries (as a share of total budget) include: Poland (4 percent), Kyrgyz (7 percent) Armenia (9 percent), and Nicaragua (8 percent). Given that our analysis extends beyond agriculture to include some rural infrastructure (especially roads), one would expect spending closer to 10 percent of the budget. transfer of funds to SPA (mostly for the construction of local school buildings, rural roads and other infrastructure investments such as village sewerage systems). 25 This review estimates that spending in other areas not captured within the consolidated budget accounts for around 10 percent of total public spending. 26 EU Accession-7 includes Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, but excludes Poland (Source: Poland PEIR, 2003). 27 This is equivalent to 1.1 percent of GDP in 2003 - down from 1.4 percent of GDP between 2000-2002. Table 4 - Consolidated Budget - Expenditure Trends, (Constant 1999 Trillion TL) 1999 28,085 5.5% 2000 30,951 5.3% 2001 34,384 5.1% 2002 34,185 6.0% 2003 33,786 5.1% 20043 Alloc. 31,516 5.3% 993 3.5% 1,141 3.7% 1,033 3.0% 1,124 3.3% 976 2.9% 926 2.9% a) Recurrent- Share of Rural Cons. Budget 69.1% 67.4% 67.6% 60.6% 72.2% 71.0% - personnel - agency transfers - other recurrent4 61.6% 6.2% 1.2% 57.1% 9.1% 1.2% 60.8% 5.5% 1.3% 54.0% 4.8% 1.7% 66.0% 3.9% 2.3% 61.8% 3.2% 6.0% b) Investment- Share of Rural Cons. Budget 30.9% 32.6% 32.4% 39.4% 27.8% 29.0% Consolidated budget1 Share of Investment Rural Consolidated Budget2 Share of Rural within Consolidated GDP Deflator (SIS) 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.4 4.1 Sources: State Planning Organisation, State Institute of Statistics. 1 Excludes spending by local government, spending to SOEs, and spending on ‘special’ funds. 2 .’Rural’ comprises expenditures by MARA, MOEF, DSI, GDF, and GDRS. 3 Budget allocations for 2004 do not take into account the supplementary budget passed in March 2004, which cut discretionary expenditures by 13 percent across all ministries. 4 ‘Other transfers’ are agricultural subsidies additional to agency transfers. 4.19 An alternative measure of assessing the level of spending to the rural sector is to show spending as a proportion of GDP. In Turkey, spending through rural sector agencies has fallen from 1.4 percent of GDP in 2000-02, to 1.1 percent of GDP in 2003. This is low relative to data for comparator countries, which tends to show spending to agriculture at 1.5 2 percent of GDP. However, when other transfers are included, the figure for Turkey rises to 2 percent of GDP (2003). This is still a little lower than might be expected given the broader coverage of the review. Table 5 - Comparator Country Data, 2001-2004 Agriculture as Share of GDP A Agriculture Budget share B Agric. Spending As % GDP C Ratio of Budget/GDP Shares for Ag. B/A Ratio of Ag. Spending As a Share of Ag. GDP C/A 13% 5% 6% 4% 2% 2% 0.46 0.83 0.15 0.37 Mexico 4% 5% 0.7% 1.35 0.16 Venezuela 5% 3% 0.5% 0.67 0.12 China 15% 11% 1.2% 0.71 0.08 Turkey* Poland India 23% 15% 1.8% 0.63 0.08 *For Turkey, this is actually total rural spending (including both transfer and non-transfer budget Source: Fan, Shenggen and Neetha Rao (February 2003) "Public Spending in Developing Countries: Trends, Determination and Impact" International Food Policy research Institute, EPTD Discussion Paper No.99; State Institute of Statistics; Own Calculations. Note: Agriculture spending in Poland includes a large subsidy and pensions element, equivalent to around 2.5% GDP. 4.20 It is important that decisions over future levels of public funding to agriculture and the rural sector are based upon an assessment of the quality of expenditures provided. Productivity growth in the sector also depends as much upon improvements in the wider policy and institutional environment, as upon the provision of public-funded rural services. 4.8 Local Administrations 4.21 Municipalities account for most of the spending by local administrations. Data from SIS28 on budgets and final accounts of municipalities and SPA (Appendix Table 5) indicate that final expenditures of municipalities are almost five times that of SPAs and villages. Villages account for a negligible share of expenditures (about one-tenth of SPA expenditures). Expenditures of municipalities below 20,000 population are roughly equivalent to total expenditures of SPAs. As villages and SPAs have limited financial resources compared to municipalities, many small settlements have been applying to set up a municipality as allowed by law for a population of at least 2,000 residents. However, the Ministry of Interior has not allowed the creation of new municipalities since 1990, to avoid a continuing increase in the high number of very small municipalities. Figure 2 - Distribution of Local Administrations’ Budget Breakdown of Local Administrations' Budget SPAs 16% Villages 3% Municipalities 81% Source: State Planning Organization 4.22 Estimates from SPO indicate that total consolidated expenditures of local administrations (all sectors) represent less than 4 percent of GNP in 2002 and 2003, down from around 5 percent in earlier years. This compares to central government consolidated budget expenditures, which represent around 40 percent of GNP (see Appendix Tables 3 and 4). 4.23 Local administrations nonetheless account for a significant share of the total investment budget, estimated at 30 percent of the total (Appendix Tables 6 and 7)29. This is mainly due to the low share of investment spending in central government expenditure. 4.24 The share of agriculture within overall local administration spending is small. Data from SPO suggest that only 3 percent of local administration investment spending goes to agriculture - equivalent to 0.04 percent of GNP (Appendix Table 7). The largest areas for 28 In general, data on local government revenues and spending are not very reliable. In the absence of consolidated data from the Ministry of Interior, information is based on SIS publications and data provided by SPO, which are not entirely compatible. 29 In its estimates of investment by local governments (Table 7), SPO has attempted, in principle, to eliminate double counting with general budget and other central government funding sources. This is the main reason for differences with investment expenditures by local governments reported by SIS (Table 5), since SIS data include all sources of funding of local governments. local government investment spending are drinking water supply, sanitation and other basis services (45 percent), and rural transport infrastructure (33 percent). Economic Classification 4.25 This section reviews rural sector spending by economic classification, comprising: salaries, subsidies and transfers, other non-wage recurrent spending, and investment spending. Overall, since 1999, the shares of the rural budget allocated to recurrent and investment spending have remained consistent, at around 70 percent recurrent and 30 percent investment (Table 5). The exception being 2002, when unusually high levels of investment in irrigation raised investment spending to almost 40 percent of total spending. 4.26 Table 6 shows the breakdown of rural spending by economic classification. Recurrent expenditures are dominated by salaries, which account for around 90 percent of recurrent spending. This is very high. While there can be no absolute rule, it is generally considered that the effectiveness of agricultural services is likely to be adversely affected if salary costs exceed 60 percent of the total recurrent budget. Table 6 - Breakdown of Rural Spending by Economic Classification (1999-2004) Recurrent of which: Personnel Other current Transfer Investment 1999 69% 2000 67% 2001 68% 2002 61% 2003 72% 2004 Alloc. 71% 89% 2% 9% 85% 2% 13% 90% 2% 8% 89% 3% 8% 91% 3% 6% 87% 8% 5% 31% 33% 32% 39% 28% 29% 100% 100% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: MoF. Note: Comprises ‘rural’ sector spending by GDRS, DSI, MARA, MOEF and GDF. 4.27 Spending on transfers to rural agencies as a share of the rural sector recurrent budget has fallen from 13 percent in 2000, to 6 percent in 2003 (and an allocation of 5 percent in 2004). This reflects recent reforms by government to curb funding to subsidies and transfer payments. 4.28 ‘Other’ non-wage recurrent spending has increased from 2 percent of the rural recurrent budget in 1999, to 3 percent of the budget in 2003 (and an allocation of 8 percent in 2004). Spending on this item includes funding for logistical and operational costs such as fuel, travel allowances, utility charges, communications, and general office costs. These items are essential for the effective provision of public-funded rural services. Although ‘other’ nonwage recurrent spending is increasing, it is still relatively low – in many countries for example, 10 percent of the recurrent budget is typically allocated to the logistical and operational costs of rural development programs. The problem of low funding for non-wage recurrent spending, which is general for all government agencies, is particularly acute in the rural sector. To some extent, off-budget funding mechanisms act to alleviate the difficulties created by the low allocations for ‘other current’ expenditures under the consolidated budget; but these alternative funding sources are being closed, or consolidated within the consolidated budget. This raises concerns over how operational costs will be covered in the future. 4.29 As indicated in Table 4 above, overall levels of investment spending in Turkey are low – accounting for only 5 percent of the total consolidated budget (all sectors). Within the rural sector however, investment represents 30 percent of total spending under the consolidate budget. 4.30 Table 7 below, shows a more comprehensive picture of total public investment (all sectors), including, inter alia, investment spending by SOEs and special funds (but excluding local administrations). This shows that rural agencies’ investment budget share30 within the total public investment is fairly stable at 13 %. This is in line with the share of agricultural GDP but far less than the rural GDP share of over 30 percent. Moreover, this 13 percent share of rural is offset by the fact that overall levels of investment spending in Turkey are low – accounting for only 5 percent as mentioned above. Investment spending in agriculture accounted for 9 percent of total public investment. Table 7 - Share of Total Public Investment (Nominal Trillion TL) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Public investment1 % of GNP 2,992 3.8% 5,154 4.1% 6,569 3.7% 10,815 4.0% 12,464 3.5% Total ‘rural’2 % of total 361 12.1% 689 13.4% 897 13.7% 1,644 15.2% 1,480 11.9% 20043 Alloc. 11,978 1,539 12.8% Agriculture 3 238 434 599 1,202 1,142 1,167 % of total 8.0% 8.4% 9.1% 11.1% 9.2% 9.7% Sources: State Planning Organisation, State Institute of Statistics. 1 Includes spending on SOE’s and special funds. Excludes investment by local administrations. 2 Includes the whole agriculture sector (as defined by SPO), plus investment by GDRS and GDH in rural roads and investment by TEDAS in rural electricity distribution. 3 Excludes roads, drinking water and electricity. 4.31 The breakdown of investment by local administrations (Appendix Table 7) shows a predominance of investment in drinking water supply and sanitation and in transportation (mainly in urban municipalities). Investment by SPAs is mainly directed to education; SPAs are required by law to spend at least 20 percent of their total budget in this sector (mostly construction of local school buildings). SPAs also invest in transportation (rural roads) and water supply and sanitation, mostly in villages and small municipalities. Investment by SPAs in agriculture is negligible. An unknown amount of investment in roads and water supply by municipalities also benefits rural areas31. 4.32 Figure 3 shows the breakdown of total rural spending from the consolidated budget between the five main sector agencies (for 2003). This shows that together GDRS and DSI account for the majority of sector spending (67 percent), followed by MARA (18 percent), and GDF and MOEF (8 percent and 7 percent respectively). 30 Including non-agriculture investments undertaken by GDRS and GDH in rural infrastructure (mainly rural roads, water supply) and TEDAS (electricity). 31 Although SIS provides data on investment by municipalities, these are only aggregate figures without any functional breakdown. However, the level of investment by municipalities in rural roads and water supply is likely to be very small. Figure 3 - Share of Total Rural Spending (Recurrent and Investment) by Agency (2003) GDF 8% MOEF 7% GDRS 43% MARA 18% DSI (irrig) 24% Source: Ministry of Finance and Own Calculations 4.33 Table 8 provides a more detailed breakdown of the relative share of recurrent and investment spending between agencies (for 2003) and Table 9 shows the breakdown of investment budget by agricultural and non-agricultural activities. This shows that GDRS accounts for almost half of total personnel spending, a major share of ‘other recurrent’ expenditures, and nearly one-third of investment. DSI has a relatively low share of personnel and ‘other recurrent’ spending, but a large share of total investment (56 percent). Table 8 - Share of Recurrent and Investment Spending By Agency (Percentage Share, 2003) Percent GDRS DSI MARA GDF MOEF TOTAL Source: MoF. Personnel 49 11 23 10 7 100 Recurrent Other Current 43 2 32 14 9 100 Investment Transfer 13 36 8 18 25 100 31 56 6 1 6 100 4.34 Thus, investment spending is allocated heavily towards large agricultural infrastructure works by DSI- on average about 45 percent over 1999-2004 period. The on-farm irrigation investments and land consolidation activities executed by GDRS are relatively under-funded. As noted in Chapter 4 of the main report, this has led to a situation in which the construction of head-works and main canals in certain irrigation systems are finished but the works for onfarm irrigation structures are left waiting in a long line of un-tendered contracts for many years. There is also relatively little investment in the non-agricultural rural priorities of roads and drinking water (GDRS). As shown below, non-agricultural investment accounts for on average accounts for 25-30 percent of total rural investment. Table 2. 7 Investment by Rural Agencies (Constant 1999 Trillion TL) Agriculture Total Agricultural Share, of which: DSI-Irrigation GDRS-Irrigation and Other Agriculture MARA MEF GDF Other Rural Non-Agricultural Total Share, of which: Rural Roads-GDRS&GDR Rural Drinking Water-GDRS Rural Electrification-TEDAS Total Source: State Planning Organisation. 1999 242 74% 47% 9% 4% 3% 6% 5% 85 26% 14% 8% 4% 100% 2000 263 68% 44% 8% 4% 3% 5% 5% 121 32% 13% 7% 11% 100% 2001 215 68% 39% 7% 7% 3% 5% 6% 103 32% 20% 7% 5% 100% 2002 244 67% 38% 7% 6% 4% 4% 7% 120 33% 18% 6% 9% 100% 2003 272 77% 48% 7% 7% 5% 4% 7% 79 23% 14% 5% 4% 100% 2004 249 76% 48% 8% 7% 5% 4% 4% 79 24% 13% 5% 6% 100% Functional Classification Overview 4.35 An important characteristic of the functional distribution of public spending in the rural sector is that almost half of expenditures are allocated to transfer payments in the form of income support and subsidies. (Reference: Review of the impact of the reform of agricultural subsidization). This section reviews the functional distribution of expenditures other than these subsidies. 4.36 The way in which expenditure data is recorded prevents detailed review of public spending to the rural sector in terms of services delivered and outcomes achieved. However, functional analysis is possible at a general level to the extent that administrative entities are specialized in some functions. This section therefore reviews rural sector expenditures by each of the five major sector agencies: GDRS accounts for the largest share of the rural sector consolidated budget at between 40-45 percent of spending during the period under review. GDRS is mainly involved in the construction of rural roads (80 percent of its funds in 2003) and, to a lesser extent, village water supply works (9 percent), small-scale irrigation and soil conservation (9 percent) and land consolidation (3 percent). DSI is responsible for the construction of large- and medium-scale irrigation facilities and accounts for around 25 percent of the rural sector budget. There has been significant annual variation, with a peak in investment in 2002, but no clear trend in DSI’s share of the rural sector budget during the period under review. MARA has the main responsibility for agricultural support services in crop and livestock production (including extension, research, veterinary services, plant protection, etc.) and accounts for about 18 percent of the rural sector budget (planned to increase to 21 percent in 2004). MOEF and GDF, both involved in the forestry/environment sub-sector, together accounted for 15 percent of rural sector expenditure in 2003. 4.37 As indicated in Section 2 of this report, investment by the five main rural sector agencies is not coordinated. Regional planning is done by SPO but spending agencies are limited in the extent to which they can provide financial support to these plans due to the low share of discretionary expenditures in their budget. The result is that, with the exception of GAP, regional development plans have remained unrealized. Coordination of investment activities within the GAP area is achieved through a coordinating agency (GAP Administration) and a high-level decision-making authority (GAP High Council) (for details see Appendix 2). 4.38 There are also problems in relation to the prioritization of investment expenditures at the regional level. Each year a large number of provinces (50 out of 81 in 2003) are declared as priority provinces for investment, but only limited advantages are set for the priority regions (e.g. higher salary for civil servants). General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS) 4.39 Total expenditures of GDRS under the consolidated budget have been declining in real terms since 2000 (Appendix Table 12). The main responsibility of GDRS is to develop smallscale rural infrastructure (construction of small scale irrigation schemes and drainage systems, rural roads and village water supply systems, land consolidation and resettlement). Despite this mandate, investment activities currently account for only 22 percent of GDRS expenditure (down from 26 percent in 1999). The bulk of GDRS expenditures are on wages – in 2003 salary costs accounted for 76 percent of total GDRS spending, and 99 percent of the recurrent budget. 4.40 During the period 1999-2003, on average 54 percent of the GDRS investment budget was spent on rural roads, 24 percent on agriculture (mainly irrigation) and 21 percent on other public services (including drinking water supply) (Appendix Table 13). The share of rural roads in the investment budget of GDRS has been decreasing steadily during this period, while the shares to agriculture and other services have increased. Figure 4 - GDRS’ Consolidated Budget Expenditures GDRS Consolidated Budget Actual Expenditures in real terms TL billion in 2003 prices 2,500,000 2,000,000 Total Personnel Other current Investment Transfer 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: MoF 4.41 GDRS currently employs 53,600 staff, mainly in its regional and provincial field offices. Most staff (about 45,000) is laborers employed for construction works carried out by GDRS field offices. This workforce is included in the GDRS personnel budget, whereas other costs (mainly fuel, maintenance and repairs of machinery and equipment) incurred for these construction works are included in the investment budget32. Most of the work carried out by GDRS directly is related to rural roads, whereas other works related to agriculture (mostly irrigation), water supply and settlement are executed mainly through private contractors. 4.42 Besides funding under the consolidated budget, a significant part of GDRS activities are carried out at the request of SPAs and protocols with other administrations (Appendix Table 14). SPAs usually provide some contribution towards the cost from their own budgets. Given limited allocations to GDRS for fuel and equipment repairs and maintenance under the consolidated budget, this enables the mobilization of GDRS staff and machinery which otherwise would remain idle. Nonetheless, both staff and machinery of GDRS remain significantly under-employed due to limited operating funds. 4.43 All infrastructure built with assistance of GDRS is transferred to beneficiaries, usually local administrations and in some cases cooperatives (especially for irrigation schemes). In principle, GDRS is not responsible for the operation and maintenance costs of infrastructure. However, its investment budget includes provision for rehabilitation and/or major repairs of rural roads, which local authorities are not able to carry out without assistance. There is no policy for the recovery of these costs by GDRS from local authorities. 4.44 GDRS activities in agriculture consist mainly of developing small-scale irrigation, construction of small dams, and on-farm irrigation development including land leveling and lower level drainage systems. GDRS is also involved, to a lesser extent, in soil conservation works, land reclamation and construction of animal drinking water ponds. In principle, there is a complementarity between DSI and GDRS for large-scale irrigation schemes, with DSI responsible for main construction works and delivery of water to tertiary canals, and GDRS responsible for on-farm irrigation development. However, the programs of the two agencies are not closely coordinated, undermining the effectiveness of some investments. 4.45 Despite significant staff reductions and rationalization since the mid-1990s, the staff and machinery of GDRS are under-utilized. While there is a need for further investment in rural infrastructure, the value of maintaining a large workforce and capital equipment without sufficient operating funds is questionable. GDRS (or rather its predecessors 33) was established at a time when there were few contractors in rural areas, which is not the case any more. There may be scope for contracting out activities to the private sector (except perhaps in the most remote rural areas), which would further stimulate the emergence of small rural entrepreneurs and the development of off-farm private activity in rural areas. There is also little justification to central planning of small and scattered works like those carried out by GDRS. 4.46 Under current government decentralization proposals, GDRS is to be abolished, with its field services transferred to local government, and its residual central functions to MARA. The staff remaining under MARA will need to play a stronger role in ensuring that a larger share of irrigation sector funding is switched from head-woks and canals to on-farm irrigation structures and accompanying land consolidation activities, with priority given to areas where head-works and canals are completed. MARA should also promote: i) a switch from funding 32 33 As shown in Annex Table 12, the “other current” budget of GDRS has been negligible throughout the period 1999-2003. TOPRAKSU (soil and irrigation works), YSE (rural roads, drinking water and electricity) and Toprak Iskan (land and settlement). TOPRAKSU and YSE were established around 1965. in-house staff for road construction to outsourcing through competitively tendered contracts; and ii) the redeployment of such savings into increased road maintenance and rehabilitation and investments for road network expansion where the probability of locally funded maintenance is highest. General Directorate of State Hydraulics Works (DSI) 4.47 Investment accounts for two-thirds of total spending by DSI under the consolidated budget, with the bulk of other expenditures consisting of personnel. Until 2002, total investment expenditure reported by DSI (Appendix Table 11) was significantly higher than MOF consolidated budget data,34 as DSI also received additional resources in particular from the ‘Public Participation Fund’ managed by Treasury. This was not for irrigation, but for investment in energy and water supply projects. 4.48 Irrigation accounted for around one-third of DSI’s total investment budget during the period 1999-2004 (Appendix Table 11). Other investments by DSI, which are outside the scope of this review, relate to energy (power generation) and urban water supply. DSI has a breakdown of personnel and other recurrent expenditures by region, but not on a functional basis - hence recurrent expenditures cannot be disaggregated between sectors. 4.49 Allocations from MOF to DSI under the consolidated budget (Appendix Table 9) provide only a small allowance for ‘other recurrent’ expenditures, representing less than 0.5 percent of DSI’s total actual expenditures under the consolidated budget throughout the period 1999-2003 (planned to increase to 3 percent in 2004). The tiny size of DSI’s ‘other recurrent’ budget limits expenditure on operation and maintenance of irrigation infrastructure. Prior to 1993, most large-scale irrigation schemes were managed by DSI after construction was completed, with operating costs funded through user-fees. However, poor collection rates (about 40 percent recovery of costs) resulted in inadequate maintenance of irrigation schemes. Starting in 1993, DSI initiated a program of accelerated transfer of operation and maintenance functions to Water User Organizations (WUO). By the end of 2003, over 90 percent of the total irrigated area developed by DSI had been transferred to WUOs. This transfer concerns not only tertiary and secondary canals, but also the main canal of irrigation schemes. WUOs are self-financing and responsible for setting and collecting users’ fees to cover the costs of their activities. 4.50 The transfer of responsibilities to WUOs has resulted in significant savings in staffing and other costs for DSI, together with substantial improvements in the effectiveness and efficiency of irrigation facilities. However, many WUOs still need further strengthening to develop as sustainable organizations that can adequately take care of the financial and technical management of the irrigation systems. Also, DSI still has to manage the main canal and drain systems, and little progress has been made so far with the introduction of a specific irrigation service fee intended for this purpose. Given its limited operational budget, DSI funds these remaining tasks from its investment budget. Nonetheless, both head works and many other parts of existing irrigation systems continue to slowly deteriorate. This reduces the efficiency and economic returns from the substantial public investments that have been made in irrigation infrastructure. 4.51 The wage bill of DSI is substantial, accounting for 25-30 percent of total expenditures during the period 1999-2004 (Appendix Table 11). DSI currently employs 33,500 staff. 34 Figures reported respectively by MOF and DSI for actual expenditures other than investment are consistent, with only minor differences. Although there has been some reduction in DSI total workforce (reported to be 36,700 in the PEIR carried out in 2000/01) this seems to be mainly the result of attrition35. DSI reports that no jobs were lost following the transfer of irrigation management to WUOs, as staff was moved to other departments. A majority of DSI staff are unionized wage earners and not civil servants and the different processes governing adjustments in remuneration have created discrepancies between salaries (for civil servants) and wages (for unionized skilled and unskilled laborers). Wages for temporary unskilled laborers are higher than base salaries of senior civil servants. This contributes to demoralization among civil servants who neither have access to unions nor any real power to influence their salaries and benefits. These problems limit the ability of DSI to recruit qualified engineers, managers and other professionals. These issues require a fundamental review of staffing and salary arrangements at DSI and may require the retrenchment of unskilled staff in line with a more focused investment program. 4.52 Over-programming of public investment has been a longstanding problem in Turkey, and is particularly striking in the case of DSI as it deals with large investments that often require several years to complete. The DSI investment program in agriculture for 2004 includes a total of 183 projects, with total costs estimated at TL 40,235,000 billion of which TL 14,318,000 billion has already been funded by the end 200336. With annual allocations at the level initially set for 2004 (TL 745,349 billion), it would take almost 35 years to complete the current portfolio of DSI projects. However, this is an improvement over the situation that prevailed in 200037, and government is continuing to rationalize the public investment program (both DSI and other public agencies), in particular by limiting the entry of new projects38 and cleaning up the portfolio through the elimination of ‘dormant’ projects39. However, funding levels remain insufficient to enable the timely completion of current projects and projects continue to be implemented without an explicit scheme or prioritization. 4.53 Stock-piling of projects in DSI irrigation investment portfolio stems from many years of deficiencies in the prioritization of public investment mainly due to a lack of political will to take hard decisions, together with a reduced capacity to fund public infrastructure as a result of inadequate public debt management. DSI does not have a detailed plan at the agency level and is not in a position to take hard decisions when faced with funding constraints, as it cannot unilaterally suspend or freeze ongoing contracts in the absence of enabling legislation and higher level decisions during the budget process. Its annual budget requests are based on estimates of the funding that would be required in order to implement all ongoing projects as planned. This has continued to be the case in recent years, although indicative ceilings are reportedly given to line agencies before budget preparation. 35 However, operations and maintenance personnel on have been cut by 5,000 over the last ten years. These costs estimates are updated in 2004 constant prices. 37 As of end 2000, DSI had 223 irrigation projects in its portfolio. The total budgetary requirement to complete the remaining works on all ongoing irrigation projects amounted to TL 11,606,000 billion in constant 2000 prices, compared with an annual allocation of TL 255,650 billion for DSI irrigation investment budget in 2000. This represents only 2.2percent of the remaining funding requirements to finish off the existing project stock without any further additions, i.e. about 45 years to complete the existing portfolio. (Source: PEIR 2001). 38 On average, 18 projects were introduced annually in DSI irrigation portfolio during 1995-1998 (45 in 1995, none in 1996, 19 in 1997, and 8 in 1998). Starting in 1999, only one or two new projects have been introduced every year. 39 The public investment program has traditionally included projects that will not be implemented immediately, corresponding to “dormant” projects receiving only “trace allocations” (e.g. for feasibility studies) from SPO. It is likely that this category includes a significant proportion of projects of limited or doubtful economic value but with some influential constituencies lobbying for their inclusion. 36 4.54 Throughout the period 1999-2004, DSI received only about 15-20 percent of its budget requests for investment in agriculture (Appendix Table 11). At the same time, the wage bill has increased from about 26 percent of DSI total expenditure in 1999 to an estimated 30 percent in 2004. The way in which funds are released by MOF has also been a constraint for effective and efficient operation of DSI. The release of budgetary appropriations has often been temporarily frozen and/or partly cut. Even though this is usually compensated before the end of the year, it creates uncertainties with contracted works and cash flow constraints that result in delays in payment of contractors and implementation of ongoing projects. 4.55 Weak procurement procedures have also contributed to low efficiency of public funds invested in irrigation. Prior to the recent enactment of the new public procurement law, bidders who offered discounts on pre-determined unit construction costs increased their chances of winning the contract. This resulted in substantial upfront contractor discounts, followed by contract variations and cost escalation of ongoing projects in subsequent years. Furthermore, new projects were introduced in DSI investment program with incomplete design features, with responsibility for final designs allocated to the contractor. This creates further potential for large increases in the costs of projects through contract modifications. Final designs are usually done piecemeal, so that the contractor can advance with the works without waiting for the full package. However, the costs of not doing full investigations and final designs in advance can be high, as potentially less costly alternatives cannot be explored. The full costs of the project becomes evident only in the process of its implementation, which results in systematic and continuous underestimation of the financing needs of the investment portfolio and thus exacerbates the problem of incomplete projects. Once the original contract sum is spent (after allowance for general price inflation), unfinished schemes may be transferred to users who then may have to resort to their own limited means to finish the works. 4.56 All the above problems have contributed to poor utilization of public funds by DSI. Lack of user participation in the planning, construction and financing of the irrigation schemes exacerbates these problems. Although a legal framework exists for the recovery of investment costs, existing decrees do not include any provision for adding interest and adjusting for inflation and farmers’ dues have become meaningless. As the present agricultural reform agenda has had some negative short-term on income in the farming community, it would be unrealistic to expect government to adopt more stringent investment cost recovery in the near future. Priority should be placed first on achieving adequate recovery of operating costs to ensure the sustainability of irrigation investments. Even without user participation in the financing of investment – which would be the surest way of fostering least-cost designs and ownership of these projects – there is still room to seek their increased participation in the planning, design and construction phase of irrigation schemes, which DSI has started to do in recent years only to a limited extent. 4.57 Rationalization of the DSI irrigation portfolio is a priority. There is a need to take a fresh look at the stock of existing projects, many of which have been in the pipeline for a long time, in order to reassess their viability under present economic circumstances. Rationalization of the portfolio also means making efficient use of DSI resources in terms of staff, machinery and other installations. Increased reliance on the private sector for irrigation development also needs to be considered. Under the Participatory Privatization of Irrigation Management and Investment Project (PPIMIP) supported by the World Bank, WUO have also started to contribute to the rehabilitation costs of existing irrigation systems. There may be scope for further privatization of the development of new medium size irrigation schemes. Channeling private sector funds to complement existing public funds would provide the fastest means of exploiting the remaining irrigation potential in the country. 4.58 Recommendations on the restructuring of irrigation investment policies, including issues related to the privatization of unfinished irrigation infrastructure, is being developed as part of the ‘Irrigation and Drainage Sector Analyses’ carried out under the Rural Growth Study. These analyses also include an assessment of constraints to improved efficiency of water use and costs recovery. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) 4.59 The consolidated budget of MARA is dominated by wages, which have accounted on average for 82 percent of its expenditures during the period 1999-2003 (Appendix Table 15). This leaves precious few operating resources for MARA to adequately carry out its main function, which is to deliver advisory and other support services. ‘Other recurrent’ expenditures have been on average only 4 percent of MARA total consolidated budget expenditures. Some recurrent expenditures (including staff per diems, fuel and other transport expenditures, etc.) are however funded through the projects included in the investment budget. MARA also receives some off-budget funding, in particular from the Social Aid Solidarity Fund,40 and some MARA staff carry out activities funded through revolving funds. Nonetheless, overall funding of operational costs appears insufficient for effective and efficient delivery of MARA services. 4.60 In real terms, the total consolidated budget of MARA has remained broadly constant during the period 1999-2003. However, the composition of the budget between recurrent and investment expenditures has fluctuated - from 1999 to 2001, investment expenditures increased while personnel expenditures declined, this trend then reversed with an increase in personnel expenditures and a decrease in investment over 2002-03. Initial budget allocations for 2004 indicate a substantial increase in ‘other recurrent’ allocations, rising to 12 percent of MARA’s total consolidated budget, with further reductions in investment. This appears to correspond, at least in part, to the new budget codes and classification system that are being introduced in 2004. In nominal terms, the total allocation to MARA under the consolidated budget for 2004 is almost 25 percent higher than its actual 2003 budget expenditures. Figure 5 - MARA’s Consolidated Budget Expenditures TL billion in 2003 prices MARA Consolidated Budget Actual Expenditures in real terms 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 Total Personnel Other current Investment Transfer 100,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: MoF 40 The Social Aid Solidarity Fund is one of the 5 remaining non-budgetary funds and is managed by the Prime Ministry. 4.61 The investment program of MARA gives a detailed breakdown of expenditures by General Directorates (Appendix Table16). Over the period 1999-03, the General Directorate of Protection and Control (KKGM) accounted for the largest share of MARA investment budget (33 percent) followed by General Directorate of Organization and Support TEDGEM (24 percent), General Directorate of Agricultural Production Development TUGEM (19 percent), and General Directorate of Research TAGEM (11 percent), with miscellaneous other projects accounting for the balance (13 percent). Figure 6 - MARA’s Investment Budget (1999-2003) MARA Investment Budget (1999-2003) Other Projects, 13% TAGEM, 11% TEDGEM Cooperatives iinvestment credit, 18% TEDGEM Other, 6% TUGEM, 19% KKGM, 33% Source: MARA 4.62 About three-quarters of investment by TEDGEM consist of medium to long-term credit extended to Agricultural Development Cooperatives (ADC)41. It is questionable whether MARA should carry out this type of activity. Loans funded under the MARA consolidated budget require a contribution of 15-20 percent from ADCs and are extended at subsidized interest rates (18 percent in 2003, 9 percent in 2004) with two-years grace and a repayment period depending on the type of project (e.g. five years for livestock purchase, ten years for olive oil processing and packaging facilities). Loans are approved by MARA provincial offices and handled through a protocol with the Agricultural Bank (Ziraat Bankasi), with MARA assuming the entire risk. 4.63 MARA has carried out this activity for over thirty years and claims a recovery rate of 95 percent42. MARA receives many applications from ADCs for credit, but is able to serve 20-25 applications each year. It is planned that this activity will expand further in 2004. TEDGEM reports that it extended a total of TL 24,000 billion in 2003 as investment credit to ADCs under its consolidated budget, whereas the amount allocated for this activity under MARA consolidated budget for 2004 would be TL 88,400 billion.43 In addition, the Social Aid Solidarity Fund (non-budgetary fund) has started to channel funds to MARA since October 2003 in order to carry out similar activities, with repayment over four to five years, 41 Most Agricultural Development Cooperatives (ADC) are small village level cooperatives. They operate under the general cooperative law. It is estimated that there is a total of roughly 5,000 ADC with some 500,000 members. They tend to focus mainly on activities not covered by Agricultural Sales Cooperatives and Agricultural Credit Cooperatives – e.g. dairy and livestock, beekeeping, greenhouse production and marketing of fruit and vegetable, mushroom production, handicrafts, consumer articles. It is reported that their numbers and business volumes are increasing. 42 Not independently verified by the consultants. 43 Until 2003, these amounts were under the investment budget of MARA. From 2004 onwards, they are included in its transfer budget. and at a zero interest rate. As of February 2004, TEDGEM has already received TL 11,000 billion from this fund and expects to receive a total of TL 200,000 billion in 2004. 4.64 It is not possible to carry out an analysis of MARA expenditures specifically related to main functions such as research, extension or other key services, nor is it possible to assess the efficiency (e.g. cost per unit) of these activities. As of February 2004, MARA had a total of 38,400 employees, out of which about 1,800 work at the central offices in Ankara, and the balance is distributed among provincial and district offices, research institutions and laboratories. 4.65 TEDGEM is responsible for providing technical support to MARA field activities related to extension and training of farmers and cooperatives. This includes agricultural vocational schools and training centers for handicrafts. Field extension staff of MARA consists on average of about 10 training and extension agents in each provincial office and 5 in each district. This represents a total staff of up to 5,500 extension agents - equivalent to 800 farmers per extension agent. Besides training its own field extension agents, MARA also provides training to approximately 1,000 ‘agricultural consultants’ who are village residents and paid by the SPA or village services unions. In order to promote improved efficiency and responsiveness to farmers needs in the delivery of extension and other advisory services, further efforts should be made to switch from a government-led extension service towards increased involvement of professional/ farmers organizations and other non-governmental organizations. 4.66 The General Directorate of Protection and Control (KKGM) coordinates the activities of MARA related to plant protection, seeds certification and control of food production, as well as animal health and veterinary services. Out of about 5,000 agricultural engineers employed by MARA, around 2,000 work in plant protection activities. MARA currently employs 3,000 veterinarians and 2,100 veterinary technicians, mainly in its field offices. This compares with about 3,000 private veterinarians who are active mostly in rural areas. Veterinarians employed by MARA provide health services, some of which could be privatized. 4.67 In addition to resources provided under the consolidated budget, MARA used to have a large non-budgetary fund for the development and improvement of pastures and meadows (the ‘pasture’ fund)44. This fund closed in 2002, but government has continued to collect corresponding revenues in 2002 and 2003, amounting to around TL 60,000bn annually, of which only half have been transferred to MARA. The reduced level of funding and delays in the release of funds from the consolidated budget create difficulties in the execution of these activities, which need to be carried out in a timely manner at specific periods of the agricultural season. 4.68 MARA has a very large number of revolving funds (Appendix Table 17). These represent a significant share of MARA’s total expenditures; equivalent to 8 percent of MARA spending from the consolidated budget in 2003. Most investment and staff salaries for activities carried out under revolving funds are paid out of the consolidated budget, whereas operating expenditures are paid from fund revenues. The resulting ‘profit’ (difference between revenues and expenditures of the funds) is mainly distributed as a premium to the staff, with a small percentage re-invested in investment activities. The size of these funds is 44 MARA also had several BF which received only small allocations before being closed in 2001/2002 (State aid fund for investment activities of Agricultural Cooperatives, Handicraft Development Fund in Villages, Farmers and Cooperatives Educational Fund, Fund for Farmers harmed from National Disasters). generally very small –the largest (Pendik Veterinary Control and Research Institute) has an annual turnover of TL 70,500 bn from production and sales (including exports) of vaccines for foot-and-mouth and other animal diseases. 4.69 Other research institutes are also involved in revenue generating activities such as seeds production and laboratory analyses. Since funds for operational costs are limited under the consolidated budget, the operation of revolving funds have become of increasing importance to some departments. 4.70 Overall, the number of revolving funds managed by MARA has decreased from 253 in 1999 to 193 in 2003. However, those that have been closed are mostly the smaller funds, and in some instances funds have been amalgamated. Although many activities financed by these funds have effectively been transferred to the private sector (e.g. production of grape seedlings), there is scope for privatization to extend further.45 Environment and Forestry (MOEF and GDF) 4.71 Expenditures under the consolidated budget of MOEF increased 10 percent in real terms during the period 1999-2003 (Appendix Table 18)46. In 2003, personnel expenditures accounted for 62 percent of total expenditures, other current expenditures 3 percent, investment 21 percent and transfers 13 percent. 4.72 The forestry sector is characterized by a complex system of budgetary funds (now converted into ‘special appropriations’) and transfers, which together accounted for 28 percent of total expenditures in 2000 and have been decreasing thereafter. Figure 7 - MOEF’s Consolidated Budget Expenditures Consolidated Budget of MOEF Actual Expenditures in real terms TL billion in 2003 prices 350,000 300,000 250,000 Total Personnel Other current Investment Transfer 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: MoF 4.73 The investment program of MOEF gives a detailed breakdown of investments by its main general directorates. Over the period 1999-03, the General Directorate of Reforestation and Erosion Control (AGM)47 accounted for the largest share of the MOEF investment budget The efficiency of RF activities cannot be estimated on the basis of their reported “profit”, which excludes a large share of investment and personnel expenditures funded out of the consolidated budget. 46 Ministry of Forestry and Ministry of Environment were merged in 2003 into MOEF. Previous years' data for the Ministry of Environment have been included for consistency of the series. 45 47 AGM deals with reforestation, prevention of erosion, pasture improvement in forest areas, production of seeds and seedlings. It has become active in preparation and implementation of integrated/participatory watershed development plans under the Eastern Anatolia Watershed Rehabilitation Project. (76 percent) followed by National Parks and Wild Life (MPG) (11percent) and support services (8 percent) which are mainly vehicle procurement and maintenance as well as publications and promotions. General Directorate of Research and Laboratories obtain 4 percent of the investment budget and General Directorate of Forest Village Relations (ORKOY) gets only as much as 1 percent. Figure 8 - MOEF’s Investment Budget MOEF Investment Budget (1999-2003) Forest Villages 1% Research and Laboratories 4% Support 8% National Parks 11% Reforestation and Erosion Control 76% Source: MOEF 4.74 Expenditures of the General Directorate of Forests (GDF) under the consolidated budget are roughly equivalent in size to those of MOEF. Figure 9 - GDF’s Consolidated Budget Expenditures GDF Consolidated Budget Actual Expenditures in real terms 350000 TL billion in 2003 prices 300000 250000 Total 200000 Personnel Other current 150000 Investment Transfer 100000 50000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: MoF 4.75 Besides its allocation under the consolidated budget, GDF has a large revolving fund, unique in Turkey for its size. Annual turnover of this fund in 2003 was TL 666,500bn, equivalent to twice the consolidated budget of GDF. Timber sales are the main source of revenues for this fund, which is used by GDF for activities in forest management, forest protection, forest area cadastre activities, building forest roads and fire bands, research and etc. The fund also supports reforestation activities of AGM and forest villages through various employment initiatives as a complement to the limited activities undertaken by (ORKOY). Due to removal of tariff barrier and subsequent drop in wood prices, as well as administered sales at allocated prices, revenues of GDF have declined imposing net costs on the national budget. As a result of this drop, various important field programs including reforestation and economic development of forest villages cannot be adequately financed.48 Alternative ways to increase revenues and profitability of the sector should be taken into account. 4.76 GDF’s revolving fund will be closed and its revenues will be merged into the general budget in 2007 as part of the budgetary reforms. The closing of the revolving fund raises concerns about losing operational flexibility especially for activities where timing is essential such as firefighting. Special arrangements to provide flexibility in such cases should be considered. Spending by region49 Regional Spending 4.77 Regional spending from the consolidated budget50 for 2002 show that the highest total spending is made in South East Anatolia Region due to irrigation investments under GAP. The second highest per rural capita spending is in East Anatolia, then in Central Anatolia and the Black Sea region. More developed Marmara, Mediterranean and Aegean regions have the lowest rural per capita spending. 4.78 In terms of functional spending: MARA spends most in Central Anatolia; DSI spends most in the South East region; GDRS spends most for rural roads in the Black Sea region and spends most for drinking water and other services in the Mediterranean region; GD Roads spends most in the Black Sea region; TEDAS spends most in the Black Sea region; and MOEF spends most in Central Anatolia. It is worth noting that DSI’s spending is concentrated in areas where there are water resources. Consequently, its investments are determined more by the availability of water resources. The same is true for MOEF, as its spending concentrates on forest areas. See. ‘Turkey Forestry Sector Review’. Report no: 22458-TU World Bank. June 2001. Regional figures capture only part of the total regional spending due to different accounting practices of organizations. DSI and TEDAS could not provide recurrent expenditures by region and GDRS could not provide indirect expenditures by region. Also DSI and GD Roads have their own regional breakdown which is very different than the 7 geographical regions; approximations were made for them. 50 The figures do not include spending of local administrations. 48 49 Table 10 - Rural Expenditures by Region and Organization 2002 Current Billion TL51 Sources: MARA, DSI, GDRS,GD Roads, TEDAS, MOEF 4.79 Within the 5-year development plan, SPO determined 48 (out of 81) priority development provinces that are located mostly in the East, South East and Black Sea regions and which have in general the lowest per capita income. It is encouraging to see that total per capita spending amounts are more or less in line with planned regional priorities. There is a negative correlation (-0.70) between per capita income and per total capita spending by region, meaning more spending is made in less developed regions in general. However, significant organizational differences exist. There is strong negative correlation between per capita spending for rural roads and per capita income. MARA’s per capita spending does not provide such strong negative correlation, and MOEF and TEDAS per capita spending show a positive correlation. Table 11 - Correlation of Per Capita GDP and Organizational Spending in 2002 Sources: MARA, DSI, GDRS, GD Roads, TEDAS, MOEF and Own Calculations 4.80 GAP52, being the biggest regional integrated project, comprises an important part of investments. Approximately 15 percent of rural budget expenditures is allocated to GAP projects (excluding energy) in 2002. As of the end of 2001, 10.8 quadrillion TL have been spent for GAP, reaching a cash realization ratio of 48.1percent. Although investment allocation for GAP increased by 22 percent for 2002 with respect to 2001 (in real terms), considering the decision to complete the invest program fully by the year 2010, investment 51 52 Figures exclude headquarters’ spending. GAP investments consist of the combination of various projects and activities conducted by different organizations and agencies in economic and social sectors. Allocations made for investments to be made by different organizations and agencies in various sectors are included in the investment budgets of these organizations and used by them. allocations to GAP need to be increased considerably in order to complete the program on time. (For details of GAP see Appendix 2.) Table 12 - GAP Spending on Major Projects 2002 Billion TL Sector Spending* Agriculture 361,752 Energy 30,531 Drinking Water 30,622 Total 422,905 *Excludes spending of local administrations. Source: www.gap.gov.tr 5. RECOMMENDATIONS Overview 5.1 The aim of this review has been to explore ways in which public spending to rural development can be made more effective in achieving national objectives of economic growth and poverty reduction. The main findings and recommendations of the review are set out in the sections below. Some overall comments, however, should first be made. 5.2 The principal challenge for rural development in Turkey is to enhance agricultural productivity, while at the same time providing opportunities for off-farm employment that would enable agriculture’s share of total employment to fall. This is a major challenge given the relatively low share of public funding currently allocated to the sector (especially for investment), and the apparent inefficiency with which public resources currently are used. 5.3 Effective support to rural development calls for the following features of public administration: An appropriate overall macro-economic framework conducive to growth and equitable distribution; Inter-and intra-sectoral resource allocations that are broadly efficient (i.e. investments have similar benefits in social and economic terms); A overall rural development strategy, and policies that are realistic in relation to their goals and affordable in relation to government’s overall resource envelope; Sector agencies and institutions with clear objectives, functions and structures that are conducive to achieving the objectives of the strategy, and with clear roles and responsibilities defined between central and local government, and between government and the private sector; and, A budget management system that works efficiently and achieves an appropriate balance between recurrent and development expenditures. 5.4 While government has made significant progress in many of these areas (especially in reforming agriculture policy and strengthening systems of expenditure management), much remains to be done to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of public funding to the rural sector. Areas where the need for improvement is especially marked include: Creating an overall vision for rural development in Turkey that is widely supported, sets out clear roles for government, is coordinated effectively, and is consistent with the resources available; Ensuring consistency between the priorities of central and local government, as revealed by funding priorities; Developing an expenditure management system that provides a sound framework for prioritizing between competing activities against sector objectives (by providing information on effectiveness and efficiency of spending), and that ensures consistency between investment and recurrent budgets; and, Strengthening the efficiency of service delivery across a wide range of rural services. 5.5 The following sections set out the specific recommendations arising from this review. Prioritization of expenditure to the rural sector Enhanced agricultural productivity and rural development more broadly, are critical for achieving national growth and poverty objectives. Still, there is not yet a comprehensive policy framework to ensure that spending is effectively prioritized to rural areas to achieve these objectives. It is expected however, that this will be addressed through the work currently being undertaken by MARA to prepare a National Rural Development Strategy. There is a need to strengthen the strategies and policies that provide the link between desired rural development outcomes and the investments required to achieve those outcomes. Important elements that need to be addressed include: o Identifying key factors that will boost agricultural productivity while also increasing opportunities for off-farm employment; o Subjecting proposed programs to more rigorous scrutiny in terms of their expected effectiveness in achieving outputs; o Ensuring that public-funded rural services are responsive to clientdemand and that measures to enhance the efficiency of service delivery are explored fully, including options for contracting out to the private sector. In developing a strategy for rural development, there is a need to consider the balance between productive policies (designed to enhance growth and productivity) and social policies targeted towards to specific needs of the rural poor. An important first step in this regard would be to evaluate the impact to date of recent reforms in agriculture and their impact upon different income groups of the rural population, using the information gathered under the rural Quantitative Household Survey (financed under the Agriculture Reform Implementation Project) as an initial step. For rural expenditures specifically targeted to the poor and to improve the focus of poverty reduction efforts more generally, there is a need for the concept of rural poverty to be clearly defined, with a more explicit link between spending and intended poverty impact. Sector planning also needs to recognize the essential role of social sector spending – especially education, which is closely correlated to poverty. There is a need to improve the prioritization of development expenditures in the sector – spreading limited funds thinly across too many investment activities only reduces overall effectiveness. Recent reforms in agriculture have made considerable progress in clarifying the public role in the sector. This process needs to continue, with future government support to the sector becoming more focused around addressing instances of market failure and social objectives. Efficiency of service delivery A major challenge is presented by the need to raise the effectiveness and efficiency with which rural services are provided. This study finds that such analysis is currently prevented by a complete absence of data on costs and quality of services. For government agencies to strengthen their future claim on public resources for spending to rural development, they will need to demonstrate effectiveness and efficiency (value-for-money) in the services they provide. Otherwise, there is a real danger of a vicious circle emerging whereby poor performance, due to low levels of funding, becomes a justification for further cuts in funding. Collecting information on beneficiary impact is especially important for assessing programs aimed at reducing poverty. Such monitoring systems should be widely introduced. Current proposals for decentralization of government services provide an opportunity to address these issues through strengthened participatory planning and capacity building to record systematically information on the costs of service delivery and outcomes achieved. In order to enhance efficiency, government should explore further the options to (i) withdraw from services with strong private good characteristics; and (ii) contract out the delivery of remaining public-funded services to the private sector. Expenditure trends and management issues By international standards, the share of public expenditure to the rural sector is low. Not including transfers, rural sector expenditure currently accounts for just 3 percent of the consolidated budget – this share could be doubled and still remain comfortably within international standards. Only 1 percent of the consolidated budget is spent on investment in agriculture. Provided that improved effectiveness and efficiency can be demonstrated, government and donors should be alert to the risk of public funding for the rural sector falling below optimal levels. Expenditure management systems need to be strengthened to provide an effective framework for scrutinizing and prioritizing competing activities against sector objectives, and ensuring an appropriate balance between recurrent and investment expenditures. The share of salaries within the budgets of most rural sector agencies is excessive, accounting for 90 percent of total recurrent spending to the rural sector. When salaries exceed two-thirds of the recurrent budget it is generally considered that the effectiveness of services is likely to be adversely affected. Action is needed to reduce problems of instability and unpredictability in the release of funds. The untimely release of funds by central government causes uncertainties and leads to inefficiencies in program implementation – timing is especially critical in agriculture. A more systematic approach is needed to the management of revolving funds and other special lines of funding. Although government is working to rationalize these within the consolidated budget, many such funds still remain, presenting opportunities for abuse of public funds. Procedures should be put in place for setting appropriate user-charges based on the costs of providing individual services, and the needs and ability to pay of different user groups. Charges and costs need to be properly audited, and reviewed on a periodic basis, together with beneficiary impact and the efficiency of service delivery. Addressing incentives and the strengthening of management and technical skills within rural sector agencies is needed. Capacities in areas such as policy development and impact analysis need to be developed. In the longer-term, contract management skills may also be required if some public-funded services are to be out-sourced. Decentralization adds a further level of complexity. An immediate priority is to assess how best to support and coordinate the development of central and local government budgets and work-plans. In the longer-term, addressing the technical and management issues needed to raise the effectiveness of locally determined service delivery will require sustained and coordinated support. APPENDIX 1 List of tables Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: Table 7: Table 8: Table 9: Table 10: Table 11: Table 12: Table 13: Table 14: Table 15: Table 16: Table 17: Table 18: Table 19: Table 20: Basic Economic Indicators Total Public Sector Expenditures Consolidated Central Government Budget Expenditures Consolidated Operations of Local Governments Local Governments Budgets and Final Accounts Sector Investment by Source of Funding Sector Investment by Local Governments Rural Sector Investment by Main Agencies Consolidated Budget Expenditures of Main Rural Sector Agencies Contribution of Main Agencies to Rural Sector Consolidated Budget Budget Expenditures of DSI Consolidated Budget Expenditures of GDRS GDRS Investment Budget Direct Costs of GDRS Investments in Infrastructure (including contractors and force account) Consolidated Budget of MARA Breakdown of Investment Budget Allocations of MARA Revenues and Expenditures of MARA Revolving Funds (RF) Consolidated Budget Expenditures of Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MOEF) Consolidated Budget Expenditures of GDF Revenues and Expenditures of GDF Revolving Fund (RF) Table 1 Basic Economic Indicators 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 est. Gross National Product (GNP) 1/ GNP (TL billion - 109) at current prices GNP (US$ billion - 109) at current prices Exchange Rate (TL/USD - annual average) GNP Deflator (1987=100) - current/constant % annual change 78,282,967 125,596,129 176,483,953 273,463,168 357,045,000 187.66 201.48 144.61 181.89 238.05 417,144 623,355 1,220,440 1,503,494 1,499,867 698.68 1,054.15 50.9% 1,637.40 55.3% 2,354.08 43.8% 2,928.48 24.4% 53.1 62.9 51.4 32.7 61.6 88.6 50.1 30.8 25.6 13.9 Price Indices (% annual change) 1/ Wholesale Price Index (annual average) Wholesale Price Index (year-end) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Sector 2/ GDP at market prices (TL billion at current prices) of which: Agriculture 3/ Industry Services / other % of GDP: Agriculture Industry Services / other Rural GDP 4/ Rural GDP at market prices (TL billion at current prices) 77,415,272 124,583,458 178,412,438 276,002,988 359,762,926 11,851,055 17,973,866 47,590,352 17,540,631 21,521,043 32,933,706 42,126,246 29,027,782 45,881,462 70,034,336 88,813,240 78,015,045 111,009,933 173,034,947 228,823,440 15.3% 23.2% 61.5% 14.1% 23.3% 62.6% 12.1% 25.7% 62.2% 11.9% 25.4% 62.7% 11.7% 24.7% 63.6% 27,896,535 43,406,013 22,050 21,580 21,524 21,354 21,450 8,856 3,784 9,410 7,769 3,810 10,001 8,089 3,774 9,661 7,458 3,954 9,942 7,586 3,816 10,048 100.0% 40.2% 17.2% 42.7% 100.0% 36.0% 17.7% 46.3% 100.0% 37.6% 17.5% 44.9% 100.0% 34.9% 18.5% 46.6% 100.0% 35.4% 17.8% 46.8% Civilian Employment by Sector 1/ Civilian Employment (in thousands) of which: Agriculture Industry Services % of Civilian Employment: Agriculture Industry Services / other 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ Source: SPO Source: SPO (1998-2002) and SIS (2003) Crop and livestock production contribute about 94% of agriculture value-added, forestry and fisheries about 3% each. Source: TURKEY A Review of the Impact of the Reform of Agricultural Sector Subsidization’ Annex 3, World Bank, March 2004. Table 2 Total Public Sector Expenditures (TL billion at current prices) TOTAL EXPENDITURES Current Expenditures Investment Expenditures Fixed Capital Investments Changes in Stocks Transfer Expenditures Current Transfers Other Transfers Stock Revaluation Fund Total Public Sector Expenditures as % of GNP Source: SPO 2001 2002 2003 est. 1999 2000 32,101,977 51,125,344 86,008,313 120,734,536 140,411,345 10,438,286 15,481,515 23,141,350 34,826,624 44,192,468 5,172,830 27,674 8,602,104 65,172 11,300,047 -1,475,147 17,320,083 -98,776 16,774,200 -663,212 14,368,093 1,018,298 26,018,016 -155,505 50,345,669 -169,956 66,712,839 65,587 81,016,002 -1,867,402 1,076,796 1,114,043 2,866,349 1,908,179 959,291 41.0% 40.7% 48.7% 44.2% 39.3% Table 3 Consolidated Central Government Budget Expenditures (TL billion at current prices) 2000 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 28,094,057 46,970,360 81,175,207 117,225,463 140,053,981 Personnel Other Current Investment 1/ Interest Payments Other Transfers 2/ 6,911,927 2,247,665 1,567,800 10,720,840 6,645,825 9,978,800 3,610,956 2,767,364 20,439,862 10,173,378 15,211,894 5,188,128 4,798,166 41,062,226 14,914,793 23,089,184 7,482,711 8,433,961 51,870,658 26,348,949 30,200,762 8,217,904 7,165,121 58,609,163 35,861,031 35.9% 22.2% 37.4% 21.1% 46.0% 22.7% 42.9% 23.9% 39.2% 22.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1999 24.6% 8.0% 5.6% 38.2% 23.7% 2000 21.2% 7.7% 5.9% 43.5% 21.7% 2001 18.7% 6.4% 5.9% 50.6% 18.4% 2002 19.7% 6.4% 7.2% 44.2% 22.5% 2003 est. 21.6% 5.9% 5.1% 41.8% 25.6% 86% 14% 86% 14% 88% 12% 86% 14% 89% 11% Total Consolidated Budget Expenditures as % of GNP Non-interest expenditures as % of GNP Distribution of Expenditures (%) Personnel Other Current Investment 1/ Interest Payments Other Transfers 2/ Interest payments, other transfers, personnel costs Other "discretionary" expenditures 2001 2002 2003 est. 1999 1/ Wages related to investment are included in the personnel expenditures 2/ Transfers to SEEs, Tax Rebates, Social Security, Other Transfers Source: SPO Table 4 Consolidated Operations of Local Governments 1/ (TL billion at current prices) 1999 2000 2001 2002 prov. 2003 est. 3,602,187 5,894,042 9,117,510 10,382,389 13,886,893 Current Expenditures 1,381,705 2,154,404 3,185,986 4,497,819 6,050,726 Investment Expenditures Fixed Investment Stock Change 1,258,737 9,073 1,991,500 13,714 3,051,143 21,308 3,986,328 8,992 5,393,271 26,055 Current Transfers 819,261 1,415,572 2,436,770 1,233,319 1,536,664 Expropriation and Increase in Fixed Assets 108,008 206,452 302,086 362,794 454,903 25,403 112,400 120,217 293,137 425,274 4.6% 4.7% 5.2% 3.8% 3.9% TOTAL EXPENDITURES Capital Transfers Total Consolidated Expenditures as % of GNP 1/ Includes Municipalities, Special Provincial Administrations, Bank of Provinces (Iller Bank), Water and Sewerage Utilities, Natural Gas and Transportation Utilities. Source: SPO Table 5 Local Governments Budgets and Final Accounts (TL billion at current prices) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 BUDGETS REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds 3,482,096 2,097,483 1,184,502 200,111 5,559,773 3,118,739 2,057,590 383,445 7,299,948 4,225,618 2,528,024 546,305 10,080,847 6,095,676 3,416,682 568,489 13,897,937 8,153,647 4,996,560 747,730 EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures 3,482,096 1,244,416 1,123,004 1,114,676 5,559,773 2,127,010 1,727,901 1,704,862 7,299,948 2,946,762 2,017,881 2,335,304 10,080,847 4,093,708 2,661,327 3,325,812 13,897,947 5,844,100 3,745,112 4,308,734 REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds 2,304,253 1,436,008 789,985 78,260 3,762,463 2,424,467 1,223,625 114,371 5,695,900 3,711,405 1,830,561 153,933 n.a. n.a. EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures 2,466,253 1,266,571 651,201 548,480 3,843,814 1,968,596 1,079,360 795,858 5,715,273 2,911,798 1,514,871 1,288,604 n.a. n.a. 66% 68% 67% 39% 68% 78% 59% 30% 78% 88% 72% 28% n.a. n.a. 71% 102% 58% 49% 69% 93% 62% 47% 78% 99% 75% 55% n.a. n.a. REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds 634,220 320,572 226,890 86,758 1,101,758 524,066 414,598 163,094 1,575,084 733,059 606,388 235,637 2,168,707 1,044,231 830,400 294,076 2,955,834 1,425,770 1,161,300 368,765 EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures 634,220 320,513 158,093 155,613 1,101,758 556,827 269,316 275,614 1,575,084 801,150 373,366 400,568 2,168,707 1,126,557 495,169 546,981 2,955,834 1,579,309 639,575 736,950 REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds 422,009 224,636 158,926 38,447 677,295 370,009 252,445 54,841 1,042,305 571,272 381,323 89,710 n.a. n.a. EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures 447,661 310,926 97,360 39,374 721,417 487,594 157,171 76,653 1,095,658 776,135 202,896 116,628 n.a. n.a. REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds 67% 70% 70% 44% 61% 71% 61% 34% 66% 78% 63% 38% n.a. n.a. EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures 71% 97% 62% 25% 65% 88% 58% 28% 70% 97% 54% 29% n.a. n.a. A. MUNICIPALITIES (all) FINAL ACCOUNTS FINAL ACCOUNTS AS % OF BUDGETS REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures o/w: Municipalities below 20,000 population BUDGETS FINAL ACCOUNTS FINAL ACCOUNTS AS % OF BUDGETS TABLE 5-CONTINUED B. SPECIAL PROVINCIAL ADMINISTRATIONS BUDGETS REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds 235,862 173,093 62,437 332 366,076 263,658 100,183 2,234 492,062 357,837 131,083 3,143 706,642 493,488 211,080 2,074 1,047,214 682,647 361,696 2,871 EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures 235,862 43,457 117,773 74,631 366,076 74,304 180,982 110,790 492,062 100,070 243,668 148,324 706,642 146,396 318,421 241,825 1,047,214 218,360 474,775 354,079 REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds 603,865 146,135 171,136 286,594 956,524 267,960 185,982 502,582 1,494,126 388,816 366,035 739,276 n.a. n.a. EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures 521,023 115,134 327,433 78,456 767,481 185,808 460,626 121,048 1,117,501 274,188 667,582 175,732 n.a. n.a. 256% 84% 274% 86294% 261% 102% 186% 22494% 304% 109% 279% 23522% n.a. n.a. 221% 265% 278% 105% 210% 250% 255% 109% 227% 274% 274% 118% n.a. n.a. 39,884 80,124 116,285 182,450 213,419 4.4 12.6 4.5 12.5 4.6 12.0 11.3 11.0 Municipalities < 20,000 / SPA and Villages final expenditures budgets 0.8 2.3 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 SPA / Villages 5.9 9.6 9.6 FINAL ACCOUNTS FINAL ACCOUNTS AS % OF BUDGETS REVENUE Tax revenues Revenues other than taxes Special aids and funds EXPENDITURE Current expenditures Investment expenditures Transfer expenditures C. VILLAGES BUDGET RATIOS Municipalities / SPA and Villages final expenditures budgets Sources: - 2003 Budgets, Municipal and Special Provincial Administrations and Villages, State Institute of Statistics (published in February 2004) - Final Accounts, Municipalities and Special Provincial Administrations, 2001, State Institute of Statistics (published in October, 2003) Table 6 Sector Investment by Source of Funding 1/ (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures 2002 2003 2004 5,154,456 6,569,160 10,814,770 n.a n.a 1,377,540 802,280 74,821 130,319 384,397 222,798 2,260,837 1,416,170 118,432 244,589 747,213 367,215 4,190,405 1,226,736 179,676 376,785 283,005 312,553 7,364,796 2,446,212 227,452 308,722 3,000 464,588 1999 46.0% 26.8% 2.5% 4.4% 12.8% 7.4% 2000 43.9% 27.5% 2.3% 4.7% 14.5% 7.1% 2001 63.8% 18.7% 2.7% 5.7% 4.3% 4.8% 2002 68.1% 22.6% 2.1% 2.9% 0.0% 4.3% 233,423 7.8% 655,111 12.7% 1,111,912 16.9% 3,293,996 30.5% o/w AGRICULTURE SECTOR 237,915 434,350 598,679 1,202,412 n.a n.a Consolidated Budget SOE 2/ Revolving Funds 3/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization 222,403 7,147 8,346 409,491 11,111 13,731 560,926 17,349 20,403 1,163,130 3,465 33,215 19 17 1 2,602 93.5% 3.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.3% 2.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93.7% 2.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.7% 0.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 12,797 5.4% 53,683 12.4% 88,243 14.7% 430,744 35.8% 2,992,155 1,258,737 4,250,892 29.6% 5,154,456 1,991,500 7,145,956 27.9% TOTAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT 1/ Consolidated Budget SOE 2/ Revolving Funds 3/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization 1999 2000 2,992,155 2001 Funding Source as % of total Consolidated Budget SOE 2/ Revolving Funds 3/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization Foreign funding % of total Funding Source as % of total Consolidated Budget SOE 2/ Revolving Funds 3/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization Foreign funding % of total Memo Total public investment 1/ Plus: Local governments 4/ Grand total % Local governments 6,569,160 10,814,770 3,051,142 3,986,327 9,620,302 14,801,097 31.7% 26.9% TABLE 6 CONTINUED B. Annual Allocations (initial) 1999 2000 2001 3,560,000 5,905,000 6,887,000 9,835,000 12,464,000 11,977,543 1,410,000 1,155,020 87,000 123,000 645,000 139,980 2,352,000 1,908,600 144,000 234,200 1,030,000 236,200 3,500,000 2,205,000 224,000 311,000 337,000 310,000 5,736,000 2,811,000 390,000 405,000 4,000 489,000 8,000,000 2,866,500 512,000 519,600 21,400 544,500 7,471,543 2,908,000 622,000 545,000 21,000 410,000 655,123 18.4% 1,035,811 17.5% 909,186 13.2% 1,325,177 13.5% 3,650,223 29.3% 2,751,540 23.0% o/w AGRICULTURE SECTOR 242,340 397,000 503,060 823,710 1,141,525 1,167,450 Consolidated Budget SOE 1/ Revolving Funds 2/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization 212,500 8,840 20,900 352,500 14,000 30,400 440,000 22,000 41,000 751,000 14,000 55,710 1,050,800 17,500 69,575 1,078,295 11,250 73,800 100 100 60 3,000 3,650 4,105 2,340 1.0% 3,427 0.9% 1,840 0.4% 12,571 1.5% 331,600 29.0% 288,699 24.7% TOTAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT 1/ Consolidated Budget SOE 2/ Revolving Funds 3/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization Foreign funding % of total Foreign funding % of total 2002 2003 2004 C. Actual Expenditures as % of initial Annual Allocations 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TOTAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT 84% 87% 95% 110% n.a n.a Consolidated Budget SOE 2/ Revolving Funds 3/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization 98% 69% 86% 106% 60% 159% 96% 74% 82% 104% 73% 155% 120% 56% 80% 121% 84% 101% 128% 87% 58% 76% 75% 95% o/w AGRICULTURE SECTOR 98% 109% 119% 146% n.a n.a Consolidated Budget SOE 2/ Revolving Funds 3/ Bank of Provinces Funds (off budget) SOE under privatization 105% 81% 40% 116% 79% 45% 127% 79% 50% 155% 25% 60% 19% 17% 2% 87% 1/ Does not include investment by local governments (municipalities). Investments made on force account by own labor of Government agencies are not included either (corresponding costs are under the personnel budget). 2/ State-Owned Economic Enterprises 3/ Social security institutions and autonomous institutions (referred by SPO as "revolving funds") 4/ Estimates of Local Governments investment from Table 7. Source: SPO Table 7 Sector Investment by Local Governments 1/ (TL billion at current prices) 2000 2001 2002 prov. 2003 est. 2004 prog. 33,069 88 10,733 56,370 415,265 6,237 36,183 102,788 41,361 53,338 145 19,592 47,995 612,707 10,404 58,770 118,893 65,142 74,964 458 27,147 55,945 977,109 12,798 87,406 161,991 106,296 100,627 269 35,830 81,164 1,294,449 18,389 111,947 218,586 129,415 135,326 364 48,903 204,272 1,772,409 24,043 150,536 273,671 172,260 159,231 427 57,293 217,811 2,091,784 26,964 177,137 335,397 203,864 52,669 503,974 89,570 914,944 136,055 1,410,973 162,474 1,833,177 224,937 2,386,551 269,774 2,880,668 1,258,737 1,991,500 3,051,142 3,986,327 5,393,272 6,420,350 1999 TOTAL LOCAL GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Energy Transportation Tourism Housing Education Health Other Public Services: - Economic 2/ - Social 3/ TOTAL Total as % of GNP Agriculture as % of GNP 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 3% 0% 1% 4% 33% 0% 3% 8% 3% 3% 0% 1% 2% 31% 1% 3% 6% 3% 2% 0% 1% 2% 32% 0% 3% 5% 3% 3% 0% 1% 2% 32% 0% 3% 5% 3% 3% 0% 1% 4% 33% 0% 3% 5% 3% 2% 0% 1% 3% 33% 0% 3% 5% 3% 4% 40% 4% 46% 4% 46% 4% 46% 4% 44% 4% 45% 2,445 0 13 7 4,891 3,164 2,158 89,178 7,336 2,832 0 16 8 5,841 3,894 2,655 109,914 9,027 3,970 254 1 660 50,271 5,868 8,526 149,370 27,417 7,119 0 102 105 65,872 10,652 8,054 201,963 25,521 8,854 0 127 130 81,926 13,248 10,016 251,188 31,741 10,893 0 156 160 100,791 16,299 12,323 309,027 39,050 10,192 24,452 14,160 28,649 35,257 48,464 45,396 72,195 56,461 89,792 69,462 110,467 143,836 176,996 330,058 436,979 543,483 668,628 Composition of investment as % of total Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Energy Transportation Tourism Housing Education Health Other Public Services: - Economic 2/ - Social 3/ o/w Special Provincial Administrations (SPA) Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Energy Transportation Tourism Housing Education Health Other Public Services: - Economic 2/ - Social 3/ TOTAL Total as % of GNP Agriculture as % of GNP 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.003% 0.002% 0.002% 0.003% 0.002% 1/ In its estimates of investment by local governments (Table 7), SPO has attempted, in principle, to eliminate doublecounting with general budget and other central government funding sources. This is the main reason for differences with investment expenditures by local governments reported by SIS (Table 5), since SIS data include all sources of funding of local governments. 2/ Includes general administration, security, maps and cadaster, trade. 3/ Includes mainly drinking water supply and sanitation, and other services (municipal services, land use planning, environment, social services, etc.) Source: SPO Table 8 Rural Sector Investment by Main Agencies 1/ (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures TOTAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT 1/ as % of GNP TL billion - constant 2003 prices % annual change Agriculture as % of total public investment as % of GNP as % of Agriculture GDP 1999 2000 2,992,155 3.8% 5,154,456 4.1% 2001 2002 2003 alloc. 2004 alloc. 6,569,160 10,814,770 12,464,000 11,977,543 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 12,541,409 14,319,309 11,748,887 13,453,559 12,464,000 14.2% -18.0% 14.5% -7.4% 237,915 8.0% 0.3% 2.0% 434,350 8.4% 0.3% 2.5% 598,679 9.1% 0.3% 2.8% 1,202,412 11.1% 0.4% 3.7% 1,141,525 9.2% 0.3% 2.7% 997,204 1,206,644 21.0% 1,070,732 -11.3% 1,495,799 39.7% 1,141,525 -23.7% of which: DSI GDRS MARA Ministry of Forestry (& Environment) GDF sub-total % of Agriculture 161,387 29,323 11,281 7,430 12,850 222,271 93% 312,140 48,672 17,798 13,085 15,262 406,957 94% 403,283 57,453 63,017 17,692 19,645 561,090 94% 961,795 80,180 58,488 37,778 26,906 1,165,147 97% 708,800 105,000 103,610 68,475 57,350 1,043,235 91% 745,349 123,500 106,846 71,200 62,500 1,109,395 95% Roads transportation 2/ 488,886 953,716 1,291,535 2,325,099 1,478,350 1,455,224 69,896 14,340 17% 120,647 25,379 15% 158,674 42,380 16% 202,894 46,611 11% 155,000 50,894 14% 161,000 33,987 13% 167,329 349,550 531,937 604,737 773,100 697,900 o/w GDRS 4/ GDRS as % of total 25,321 15% 43,053 12% 58,617 11% 75,701 13% 79,000 10% 80,500 12% Electricity distribution (TEDAS) 2/ 63,898 197,240 188,187 402,514 350,962 430,000 o/w rural rural as % of total 13,632 21% 65,694 33% 38,384 20% 116,135 29% 53,576 15% 96,000 22% 361,104 12.1% 0.5% 3.0% 689,123 13.4% 0.5% 3.9% 896,734 13.7% 0.5% 4.2% 1,643,753 15.2% 0.6% 5.0% 1,479,995 11.9% 0.4% 3.5% 1,538,937 12.8% 1,513,542 1,914,415 26.5% 1,603,801 -16.2% 2,044,826 27.5% 1,479,995 -27.6% 161,387 124,540 11,281 7,430 12,850 317,488 88% 312,140 212,372 17,798 13,085 15,262 570,657 83% 403,283 274,744 63,017 17,692 19,645 778,381 87% 961,795 358,775 58,488 37,778 26,906 1,443,742 88% 708,800 339,000 103,610 68,475 57,350 1,277,235 86% TL billion - constant 2003 prices % annual change o/w GDRS GDH rural roads 3/ GDRS/GDH rural as % of total Drinking water supply & sanitation 2/ TOTAL "RURAL" 5/ as % of total public investment as % of GNP as % of Agriculture GDP TL billion - constant 2003 prices % annual change of which: DSI GDRS MARA Ministry of Forestry (& Environment) GDF sub-total % of "Rural" 1,167,450 9.7% 745,349 365,000 106,846 71,200 62,500 1,350,895 88% TABLE 8 CONTINUED B. Annual Allocations (initial) 1999 2000 2001 3,560,000 5,905,000 6,887,000 Agriculture 242,340 397,000 503,060 823,710 1,141,525 1,167,450 o/w DSI GDRS MARA Ministry of Forestry (& Environment) GDF sub-total % of Agriculture 154,425 27,900 12,655 10,950 18,500 224,430 93% 255,650 46,000 20,600 17,300 28,300 367,850 93% 290,160 55,500 53,940 25,000 35,800 460,400 92% 469,500 90,000 79,600 47,000 45,850 731,950 89% 708,800 105,000 103,610 68,475 57,350 1,043,235 91% 745,349 123,500 106,846 71,200 62,500 1,109,395 95% Roads transportation 2/ 501,500 843,973 715,000 1,120,000 1,478,350 1,455,224 34,500 11,187 55,335 18,812 116,000 36,292 172,600 42,561 155,000 43,900 161,000 33,987 200,325 327,000 413,500 556,500 773,100 697,900 25,410 42,760 51,050 74,270 79,000 80,500 TOTAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT 1/ o/w GDRS GDH rural roads 3/ Drinking water supply & sanitation 2/ o/w GDRS 4/ 2002 2003 2004 9,835,000 12,464,000 11,977,543 Electricity distribution (TEDAS) 2/ 63,898 197,240 188,187 402,514 350,962 o/w rural 13,632 65,694 38,384 116,135 53,576 TOTAL "RURAL" 5/ 327,069 579,601 744,786 1,229,276 1,473,001 430,000 96,000 1,538,937 1/ Does not include investment by local governments (municipalities). Investments made on force account by own labor of Government agencies are not included either (corresponding costs are under the personnel budget). 2/ Total investment in the subsector (including rural and urban areas). 3/ In addition to investments in village roads by DGRS, investments by GDH in provincial roads benefit mainly to rural areas (other investment by GDH in state roads and highways is considered as urban). 4/ GDRS assistance to villages for water supply investment is reported by SPO under "rural area planning". 5/ Includes the whole agriculture sector (as defined by SPO), plus investment by GDRS and GDH in rural roads and investment by TEDAS in rural electricity distribution. Source: Data from SPO (and GDH for amount of its investments in rural roads, TEDAS) Investment in real terms by main subsector (TL billion - constant 2003 prices) a/ b/ c/ Irrigation (DSI + GDRS) MARA Forestry Other rural infrastructure Total Total rural sector 1999 2000 2001 799,348 47,284 85,002 516,338 1,447,971 1,513,542 1,002,352 49,444 78,749 707,771 1,838,316 1,914,415 824,022 112,705 66,777 533,069 1,536,574 1,603,801 a/ DSI and GDRS investment in agriculture b/ MOFE and GDF c/ Rural roads, water supply and electricity 2002 2003 alloc. 1,296,215 72,759 80,467 549,028 1,998,469 2,044,826 813,800 103,610 125,825 338,470 1,381,705 1,479,995 2004 alloc. Table 9 Consolidated Budget Expenditures of Main Rural Sector Agencies (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures Summary TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer TOTAL "RURAL" 1/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer "RURAL" as % of total cons. budget Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer Discretionary expenditures 2/ TOTAL CONS. BUDGET as % of GNP 2001 2002 2003 2004 alloc. 1999 2000 28,084,685 6,911,927 2,260,863 1,544,427 17,367,468 46,705,028 9,978,784 3,635,153 2,475,116 30,615,975 992,823 611,996 11,924 307,202 61,701 1,721,728 982,692 21,093 560,683 157,260 2,420,113 1,471,655 30,834 784,919 132,705 3,803,278 2,055,156 64,417 1,499,460 184,245 4,047,588 2,670,461 92,784 1,126,408 157,935 4,429,029 2,738,434 265,543 1,282,636 142,416 3.5% 8.9% 0.5% 19.9% 0.4% 3.7% 9.8% 0.6% 22.7% 0.5% 3.0% 9.7% 0.6% 18.9% 0.2% 3.3% 8.9% 0.8% 21.8% 0.2% 2.9% 8.8% 1.1% 15.7% 0.2% 2.9% 8.5% 1.9% 16.1% 0.1% 8.4% 9.5% 8.7% 10.5% 7.9% 7.1% 35.9% 37.2% 45.7% 42.3% 39.2% 1.3% 8.4% 3.6% 1.4% 9.8% 4.0% 1.4% 11.2% 1.4% 11.5% 1.1% 9.6% 4,161,350 4,783,037 14.9% 4,328,351 -9.5% 4,731,272 9.3% 4,047,588 -14.5% 100% 25% 8% 5% 62% 100% 21% 8% 5% 66% 100% 19% 6% 5% 69% 100% 20% 7% 6% 67% 100% 22% 6% 5% 67% 100% 21% 9% 5% 64% 33% 146% 17% 36% 147% 18% 34% 126% 20% 35% 116% 22% 27% 115% 19% 43% 174% 17% 100% 62% 1% 31% 6% 100% 57% 1% 33% 9% 100% 61% 1% 32% 5% 100% 54% 2% 39% 5% 100% 66% 2% 28% 4% 100% 62% 6% 29% 3% 2% 4% 49% 2% 4% 56% 2% 4% 52% 3% 4% 71% 3% 8% 41% 10% 21% 43% 80,579,065 115,682,350 140,053,981 150,658,129 15,211,894 23,089,184 30,200,762 32,187,000 5,236,128 8,018,775 8,217,904 13,849,565 4,149,580 6,891,836 7,165,121 7,960,589 55,981,463 77,682,555 94,470,194 96,660,975 "Rural" as % of: GNP Agriculture GDP Rural GDP TL billion - constant 2003 prices % annual change ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION (%) Total consolidated budget Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer Other current as % of personnel Other current as % of investment Investment as % of pers.+current "Rural" sector budget Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer Other current as % of personnel Other current as % of investment Investment as % of pers.+current TABLE 9 CONTINUED Actual Expenditures Details 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 alloc. 174,693 151,579 4,587 12,234 6,293 269,828 222,714 8,796 18,108 20,210 413,014 324,793 11,379 68,367 8,475 587,382 472,139 33,857 70,507 10,879 734,237 617,635 29,622 74,305 12,675 915,723 628,780 110,614 80,688 95,641 Min. Forestry (& Environment) 3/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 52,143 34,978 1,401 5,219 10,545 80,331 49,554 1,961 10,311 18,505 125,545 85,742 2,316 15,206 22,281 193,340 124,161 5,008 46,153 18,018 298,971 185,797 8,727 64,199 40,248 313,702 185,280 19,903 78,425 30,094 Min. Environment Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 13,848 4,105 932 1,856 6,955 23,603 5,622 1,304 5,733 10,944 34,982 8,984 1,990 9,031 14,977 42,069 16,540 3,560 13,126 8,843 DSI (total) Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 640,339 199,397 1,384 382,750 56,808 1,073,783 337,674 2,069 627,347 106,693 1,540,625 484,645 7,547 904,369 144,064 2,305,308 625,987 8,459 1,429,924 240,938 2,945,514 839,086 4,533 1,930,878 171,017 2,790,119 830,700 82,627 1,873,124 3,668 DSI (est. irrigation share) 4/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 258,895 68,352 474 170,595 19,474 490,941 126,161 773 324,144 39,863 621,715 150,414 2,342 424,247 44,712 1,321,718 247,315 3,342 975,871 95,190 965,133 276,575 1,494 630,694 56,370 1,131,470 349,784 34,792 745,349 1,544 GDF Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 50,173 42,837 2,364 631 4,341 110,804 58,657 5,871 4,659 41,617 154,157 133,157 8,286 4,554 8,160 229,198 188,784 13,374 4,149 22,891 321,703 276,069 12,959 3,960 28,715 338,710 279,320 41,277 10,000 8,113 GDRS Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 443,071 310,145 2,166 116,667 14,093 746,221 519,984 2,388 197,728 26,121 1,070,700 768,565 4,521 263,514 34,100 1,429,571 1,006,217 5,276 389,654 28,424 1,727,544 1,314,385 39,982 353,250 19,927 1,729,425 1,295,270 58,957 368,174 7,024 MARA Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer Table 10 Contribution of Main Agencies to Rural Sector Consolidated Budget (TL billion at current prices) 2003 2004 alloc. 1999 2000 2001 2002 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% MARA Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 18% 25% 38% 4% 10% 16% 23% 42% 3% 13% 17% 22% 37% 9% 6% 15% 23% 53% 5% 6% 18% 23% 32% 7% 8% 21% 23% 42% 6% 67% MOEF 1/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 7% 6% 20% 2% 28% 6% 6% 15% 3% 19% 7% 6% 14% 3% 28% 6% 7% 13% 4% 15% 7% 7% 9% 6% 25% 7% 7% 7% 6% 21% DSI (irrigation) Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 26% 11% 4% 56% 32% 29% 13% 4% 58% 25% 26% 10% 8% 54% 34% 35% 12% 5% 65% 52% 24% 10% 2% 56% 36% 26% 13% 13% 58% 1% GDF Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 5% 7% 20% 0% 7% 6% 6% 28% 1% 26% 6% 9% 27% 1% 6% 6% 9% 21% 0% 12% 8% 10% 14% 0% 18% 8% 10% 16% 1% 6% GDRS Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 45% 51% 18% 38% 23% 43% 53% 11% 35% 17% 44% 52% 15% 34% 26% 38% 49% 8% 26% 15% 43% 49% 43% 31% 13% 39% 47% 22% 29% 5% Share of Rural Consolidated Budget (%) Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 1/ Data of the Ministry of Environment until 2002 have been added to Ministry of Forestry. Source: Calculated from Table 9 Table 11 - Budget Expenditures of DSI (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures 1999 756,660 2000 1,320,070 2001 2,003,206 2002 3,345,446 2003 2,911,714 2004 alloc. 2,790,119 Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current 200,780 199,430 1,350 339,743 337,729 2,014 492,192 484,635 7,557 634,446 626,076 8,370 828,980 824,424 4,556 913,327 830,700 82,627 Investment Agriculture Energy Water Supply Environment 497,658 170,595 255,779 71,262 22 867,578 324,144 409,590 133,596 248 1,366,951 424,247 748,645 193,722 337 2,470,062 975,871 1,182,660 311,023 508 1,913,429 630,694 1,030,563 251,890 282 1,770,124 745,349 816,660 207,400 715 58,222 112,749 144,064 240,938 169,305 106,668 34% 37% 31% 40% 33% 42% 100% 26% 0% 66% 8% 100% 26% 0% 66% 9% 100% 24% 0% 68% 7% 100% 19% 0% 74% 7% 100% 28% 0% 66% 6% 100% 30% 3% 63% 4% TOTAL BUDGET Expropriation & Transfer Agriculture as % investment Economic Classification (%) Personnel Other current Investment Transfer Note: Until 2002, total investment reported by DSI is significantly higher than MOF consolidated budget data (Table 9). DSI got additional ressources, in particular from the "Public Participation Fund" managed by Treasury. This was related to investment in energy and water supply projects (not irrigation). B. Revised (end of year) Appropriations 2000 1,334,368 Current Budget 202,620 342,115 502,987 637,577 886,756 913,327 Investment Agriculture Energy Water Supply Environment 502,964 173,490 257,845 71,536 94 878,971 327,795 416,281 134,648 248 1,380,617 428,320 755,519 196,439 338 2,539,078 988,475 1,200,985 349,110 508 2,030,713 660,037 1,077,850 292,270 555 1,770,124 745,349 816,660 207,400 715 58,529 113,281 148,338 246,032 177,509 106,668 1999 638,917 2000 1,088,083 2001 1,309,495 2002 2,081,671 2003 3,068,982 2004 2,790,119 Current Budget 146,625 281,200 355,910 602,002 726,461 913,327 Investment Agriculture Energy Water Supply Environment Expropriation & Transfer 459,725 154,425 212,500 92,700 100 32,567 736,365 255,650 359,465 121,000 250 70,518 895,210 290,160 462,700 142,000 350 58,375 1,357,308 469,500 681,300 206,000 508 122,361 2,229,435 708,800 1,210,000 310,000 635 113,086 1,770,124 745,349 816,660 207,400 715 106,668 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2,190,000 1,284,805 667,815 237,130 250 3,035,000 1,775,750 927,300 331,700 250 5,075,000 2,810,000 1,660,600 604,000 400 7,438,288 3,817,933 2,913,485 706,362 508 8,837,650 4,560,000 3,124,000 1,152,900 750 9,425,000 4,725,000 3,565,000 1,134,285 715 21% 12% 32% 39% 40% 24% 14% 39% 36% 100% 18% 10% 28% 24% 88% 18% 12% 23% 29% 100% 25% 16% 39% 27% 85% 19% 16% 23% 18% 100% 29% 18% 45% 41% 99% 27% 15% 45% 33% 84% 34% 26% 41% 49% 100% 23% 14% 35% 25% 74% Expropriation & Transfer 2001 2,031,941 2002 3,422,688 2003 3,094,977 2004 alloc. 2,790,119 1999 764,113 TOTAL BUDGET C. Initial Appropriations TOTAL BUDGET D. Requested Investment Agriculture Energy Water Supply Environment Initial Appropriations as % of Requested Investment Agriculture Energy Water Supply Environment Revised (end of year) Appropriations as % of Requested Investment 23% Agriculture 14% Energy 39% Water Supply 30% Environment 38% Source: DSI Table 12 Consolidated Budget Expenditures of GDRS (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 alloc. 443,072 745,751 1,070,700 1,429,911 1,693,714 1,729,425 Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current 312,311 310,145 2,166 522,372 519,984 2,388 773,086 768,565 4,521 1,011,884 1,006,608 5,276 1,320,920 1,310,232 10,689 1,354,227 1,295,270 58,957 Investment 116,667 197,258 263,514 382,038 370,801 368,174 Expropriation & Transfer 14,093 26,121 34,100 35,989 1,992 7,024 Economic Classification (%) Personnel Other current Investment Transfer 100% 70% 0% 26% 3% 100% 70% 0% 26% 4% 100% 72% 0% 25% 3% 100% 70% 0% 27% 3% 100% 77% 1% 22% 0% 100% 75% 3% 21% 0% CONSOLIDATED BUDGET (constant 2003 prices) Total 1,857,106 o/w Personnel 1,299,952 Other current 9,079 Investment 489,004 Transfer 59,072 2,071,729 1,444,539 6,634 547,993 72,564 1,914,938 1,374,571 8,086 471,293 60,987 1,778,808 1,252,219 6,563 475,255 44,770 1,693,714 1,310,232 10,689 370,801 1,992 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 alloc. 452,272 758,306 1,098,389 1,449,808 1,711,783 1,729,425 Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current 314,893 312,498 2,395 528,106 525,575 2,531 780,829 775,768 5,061 1,015,799 1,010,100 5,699 1,333,263 1,322,363 10,900 1,354,227 1,295,270 58,957 Investment 122,878 203,314 282,033 388,411 370,801 368,174 14,502 26,886 35,527 45,599 7,719 7,024 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 275,150 594,855 803,031 1,291,494 1,510,583 1,729,425 185,600 184,000 1,600 426,650 424,500 2,150 555,440 552,840 2,600 942,497 937,997 4,500 1,156,813 1,151,863 4,950 1,354,227 1,295,270 58,957 87,910 164,595 243,300 337,892 340,290 368,174 1,640 3,610 4,291 11,105 13,480 7,024 TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET B. Revised (end of year) Appropriations TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Expropriation & Transfer C. Initial Appropriations TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current Investment Expropriation & Transfer Source: GDRS Table 13 GDRS Investment Budget (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures Investment Agriculture 1/ Transportation 2/ Housing Other public services 3/ Composition of Investment (%) Agriculture 1/ Transportation 2/ Housing Other public services 3/ 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 alloc. 2004 alloc. 124,635 29,323 69,896 95 25,321 212,857 48,672 120,647 485 43,053 275,452 57,453 158,674 708 58,617 359,797 80,180 202,894 1,022 75,701 340,195 105,000 155,000 1,195 79,000 365,000 123,500 161,000 0 80,500 24% 56% 0% 20% 23% 57% 0% 20% 21% 58% 0% 21% 22% 56% 0% 21% 31% 46% 0% 23% 34% 44% 0% 22% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 alloc. 2004 alloc. 132,368 31,718 74,554 95 26,001 237,765 50,514 141,389 496 45,366 296,334 63,648 171,515 739 60,432 398,594 92,988 222,021 1,022 82,563 340,195 105,000 155,000 1,195 79,000 365,000 123,500 161,000 0 80,500 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 87,910 27,900 34,500 100 25,410 144,595 46,000 55,335 500 42,760 223,300 55,500 116,000 750 51,050 337,892 90,000 172,600 1,022 74,270 340,195 105,000 155,000 1,195 79,000 365,000 123,500 161,000 0 80,500 B. Revised (end of year) Appropriations Investment Agriculture 1/ Transportation 2/ Housing Other public services 3/ C. Initial Appropriations Investment Agriculture 1/ Transportation 2/ Housing Other public services 3/ 1/ Mainly small-scale irrigation and on-farm development works, also soil conservation and water ponds. 2/ Rural (village) roads. 3/ Includes village water supply and other activities (e.g. settlement) under "rural area planning". Source: SPO Table 14 Direct Costs of GDRS Investments in Infrastructure (including contractors and force account) (TL billion at current prices) Actual Expenditures TOTAL DIRECT COSTS OF INVESTMENT Village roads Water supply Agriculture 1/ Settlement Composition of Investment (%) Village roads Water supply Agriculture 1/ Settlement o/w Consolidated Budget Village roads Water supply Agriculture 1/ Settlement Spec. Province Administrations (SPA) 2/ Village roads Water supply Agriculture 1/ Settlement Protocols 3/ Village roads Water supply Agriculture 1/ Settlement 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 262,237 199,280 27,061 25,663 10,233 400,757 292,380 46,752 44,282 17,343 564,400 412,260 65,757 63,246 23,137 966,654 739,534 99,621 88,455 39,044 1,134,192 897,707 103,435 95,610 37,440 76% 10% 10% 4% 73% 12% 11% 4% 73% 12% 11% 4% 77% 10% 9% 4% 79% 9% 8% 3% 191,460 142,578 15,283 25,083 8,516 286,539 201,368 28,154 42,094 14,923 358,560 250,553 36,028 55,229 16,750 699,149 541,520 49,339 81,427 26,863 844,081 690,029 44,817 85,998 23,237 68,272 54,217 11,758 580 1,717 113,089 90,185 18,519 1,965 2,420 200,019 158,180 29,365 6,087 6,387 263,707 194,472 50,026 7,028 12,181 287,671 205,678 58,178 9,612 14,203 2,505 2,485 20 1,129 827 79 223 5,821 3,527 364 1,930 3,798 3,542 256 2,440 2,000 440 1,113,321 812,245 129,879 123,017 48,180 1,009,425 737,324 117,606 113,115 41,380 1,202,516 919,979 123,928 110,038 48,571 1,134,192 897,707 103,435 95,610 37,440 TOTAL DIRECT COSTS OF INVESTMENT (constant 2003 prices) Total 1,099,148 o/w Village roads 835,268 Water supply 113,424 Agriculture 1/ 107,565 Settlement 42,891 1/ Mainly small-scale irrigation and on-farm development works, also soil conservation and animal drinking water ponds. 2/ Works done by GDRS on behalf of SPA and not included in the Consolidated Budget. SPA usually provide small equipment and other goods such as fuel, as contribution in kind from their own budgets for roads construction by GDRS with its own labor force and machinery. 3/ Works done by GDRS under protocols with various other administrations. Source: GDRS Table 15 Consolidated Budget of MARA (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures 2004 alloc. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 174,693 269,829 413,014 587,382 734,237 156,165 151,579 4,587 231,511 222,714 8,796 336,172 324,792 11,379 505,996 472,139 33,857 647,257 617,635 29,622 12,234 18,108 68,367 70,507 74,305 6,293 20,210 8,475 10,878 12,675 100% 87% 3% 7% 4% 100% 83% 3% 7% 7% 100% 79% 3% 17% 2% 100% 80% 6% 12% 2% 100% 84% 4% 10% 2% CONSOLIDATED BUDGET (constant 2003 prices) Total 732,215 o/w Personnel 635,332 Other current 19,225 Investment 51,280 Transfer 26,378 749,596 618,710 24,437 50,306 56,143 738,672 580,888 20,352 122,274 15,157 730,702 587,340 42,118 87,711 13,533 734,237 617,635 29,622 74,305 12,675 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 alloc. 170,901 279,247 425,857 615,980 720,374 148,995 144,210 4,785 236,631 227,320 9,311 338,748 325,830 12,919 521,790 468,035 53,755 578,244 563,394 14,850 15,380 21,918 76,980 82,067 102,975 6,526 20,699 10,129 12,123 39,155 100% 84% 3% 9% 4% 100% 81% 3% 8% 7% 100% 77% 3% 18% 2% 100% 76% 9% 13% 2% 100% 78% 2% 14% 5% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 137,463 236,816 317,613 530,282 720,374 915,723 119,250 115,000 4,250 208,320 202,000 6,320 256,000 248,500 7,500 441,855 428,355 13,500 578,244 563,394 14,850 739,394 628,780 110,614 14,085 23,682 55,540 79,990 102,975 80,688 4,128 4,814 6,073 8,437 39,155 95,641 100% 84% 3% 100% 85% 3% 100% 78% 2% 100% 81% 3% 100% 78% 2% 100% 69% 12% TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current Investment Transfer Economic Classification (%) Personnel Other current Investment Transfer B. Revised (end of year) Appropriations TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current Investment Transfer Economic Classification (%) Personnel Other current Investment Transfer 2004 alloc. C. Initial Appropriations TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current Investment Transfer Economic Classification (%) Personnel Other current Table 16 Breakdown of Investment Budget Allocations of MARA (TL billion at current prices) Initial Appropriations 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET 138,713 236,816 317,613 530,282 720,374 Current Budget o/w Personnel Other current 119,250 115,000 4,250 208,320 202,000 6,320 256,000 248,500 7,500 441,855 428,355 13,500 578,244 563,394 14,850 15,335 23,682 55,540 79,990 102,975 3,865 500 2,810 555 5,247 760 3,485 1,002 12,906 1,400 10,181 1,325 21,840 2,120 17,645 2,075 24,540 2,400 19,470 2,670 TUGEM 2/ KKGM 3/ TAGEM 4/ 3,493 4,605 1,686 4,764 7,705 2,021 12,677 18,560 6,194 12,770 26,669 9,340 15,263 36,258 11,725 Other projects local foreign 1,686 1,236 450 3,945 3,186 759 5,203 5,003 200 9,371 7,986 1,385 15,189 12,879 2,310 4,128 4,814 8,437 2,000 39,155 2,000 801 1 15 1 1,251 1 30 1 6,073 1,500 0 0 40 1 500 3,310 3,531 4,532 5,937 500 30,000 6,655 100% 18% 7% 23% 30% 11% 11% 100% 15% 7% 20% 33% 9% 17% 100% 18% 5% 23% 33% 11% 9% 100% 22% 5% 16% 33% 12% 12% 100% 19% 5% 15% 35% 11% 15% Investment o/w TEDGEM 1/ Training Cooperatives investment credit Other project support Transfer Cooperatives operational credit BF State Aid for Investment of Cooperatives BF Handicrafts Development in Villages BF Farmers and Cooperatives Education BF Farmers harmed from National Disasters Pasture services 5/ Others Breakdown of Investment (%) TEDGEM Cooperatives investment credit TEDGEM Other TUGEM KKGM TAGEM Other Projects 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ Organization and Support General Directorate (TEDGEM) Agricultural Production Development General Directorate (TUGEM) Protection and Control General Directorate (KKGM) Research General Directorate (TAGEM) NBF closed in 2002 and integrated in the budget Source: MARA Table 17 Revenues and Expenditures of MARA Revolving Funds (RF) (TL billion at current prices) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Number of RF Revenues Expenditures "Profit" 253 14,979 12,153 2,826 239 24,375 18,598 5,777 229 40,069 31,107 8,963 202 63,965 45,772 18,193 193 87,887 57,507 30,380 o/w Regulation 969 1/ Number of RF Revenues Expenditures "Profit" 224 10,394 8,816 1,578 210 17,322 12,710 4,611 205 28,228 21,639 6,588 181 46,857 32,728 14,129 173 67,471 42,012 25,460 Regulation 867 1/ Number of RF Revenues Expenditures "Profit" 10 2,546 2,018 528 10 3,527 2,884 643 9 5,706 4,128 1,578 8 7,744 5,578 2,166 7 7,407 6,332 1,075 Regulation 170 1/ Number of RF Revenues Expenditures "Profit" 19 2,040 1,319 721 19 3,526 3,004 522 15 6,136 5,340 796 13 9,364 7,466 1,898 13 13,009 9,163 3,845 TOTAL as % of MARA consolidated budget expenditures Revenues 9% 9% Expenditures 7% 7% "Profit" 2% 2% 10% 8% 2% 11% 8% 3% 12% 8% 4% TOTAL 1/ The "profits" of RF under regulation 969 are distributed as premiums to MARA staff who participate in their activity. Under regulations 867 and 170, only 80% is distributed to staff with the balance of 20% used to increase activity of RF (investment or other increase in RF activity). Source: MARA Table 18 Consolidated Budget Expenditures of Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MOEF) (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures 2004 alloc. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 TOTAL 1/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 65,991 39,083 2,333 7,075 17,500 103,934 55,176 3,265 16,044 29,449 160,527 94,726 4,306 24,237 37,258 235,409 140,701 8,568 59,279 26,861 298,971 185,797 8,727 64,199 40,248 Min. Forestry (& Environ.) 1/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 52,143 34,978 1,401 5,219 10,545 80,331 49,554 1,961 10,311 18,505 125,545 85,742 2,316 15,206 22,281 193,340 124,161 5,008 46,153 18,018 298,971 185,797 8,727 64,199 40,248 Min. Environment Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 13,848 4,105 932 1,856 6,955 23,603 5,622 1,304 5,733 10,944 34,982 8,984 1,990 9,031 14,977 42,069 16,540 3,560 13,126 8,843 0 0 0 0 0 100% 59% 4% 11% 27% 100% 53% 3% 15% 28% 100% 59% 3% 15% 23% 100% 60% 4% 25% 11% 100% 62% 3% 21% 13% CONSOLIDATED BUDGET (constant 2003 prices) Total 276,597 o/w Personnel 163,814 Other current 9,779 Investment 29,654 Transfer 73,350 288,733 153,281 9,070 44,571 81,811 287,101 169,417 7,701 43,348 66,636 292,848 175,032 10,659 73,743 33,415 298,971 185,797 8,727 64,199 40,248 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TOTAL 1/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 53,042 27,220 2,470 9,574 13,778 98,044 52,700 3,587 19,092 22,665 122,116 62,307 4,255 28,285 27,269 192,512 115,861 8,850 53,649 14,152 263,747 161,428 9,735 76,475 16,109 313,702 185,280 19,903 78,425 30,094 Min. Forestry (& Environment) 1/ Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 39,640 24,100 1,377 7,376 6,787 74,678 47,500 2,031 12,933 12,214 93,080 55,977 2,413 20,285 14,405 159,893 103,426 5,250 42,930 8,287 220,896 141,672 5,775 63,900 9,549 313,702 185,280 19,903 78,425 30,094 Min. Environment Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer 13,402 3,120 1,093 2,198 6,991 23,366 5,200 1,556 6,159 10,451 29,036 6,330 1,842 8,000 12,864 32,619 12,435 3,600 10,719 5,865 42,851 19,756 3,960 12,575 6,560 Economic Classification (%) Personnel Other current Investment Transfer B. Initial Appropriations 1/ Ministry of Forestry and Ministry of Environment were merged in 2003. Ministry of Environment is included for consistency of the series. Source: MOF Table 19 Consolidated Budget Expenditures of GDF (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures 2004 alloc. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 50,174 42,837 2,364 631 4,341 110,804 58,657 5,871 4,659 41,617 154,157 133,157 8,286 4,554 8,161 229,198 188,784 13,374 4,149 22,891 321,700 276,065 12,959 3,960 28,715 100% 85% 5% 1% 9% 100% 53% 5% 4% 38% 100% 86% 5% 3% 5% 100% 82% 6% 2% 10% 100% 86% 4% 1% 9% CONSOLIDATED BUDGET (constant 2003 prices) Total 210,300 o/w Personnel 179,550 Other current 9,908 Investment 2,647 Transfer 18,195 307,820 162,951 16,311 12,943 115,614 275,709 238,150 14,819 8,145 14,595 285,123 234,847 16,638 5,161 28,476 321,700 276,065 12,959 3,960 28,715 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 alloc. 36,560 31,370 1,450 2,500 1,240 67,850 54,800 4,950 5,500 2,600 122,305 103,280 7,000 7,500 4,525 198,620 171,045 12,750 7,500 7,325 290,981 248,556 14,025 9,400 19,000 338,710 279,320 41,277 10,000 8,113 TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Personnel Other current Investment Transfers Economic Classification (%) Personnel Other current Investment Transfer B. Initial Appropriations TOTAL CONSOLIDATED BUDGET Personnel Other current Investment Transfers Source: GDF Table 20 Revenues and Expenditures of GDF Revolving Fund (RF) (TL billion at current prices) A. Actual Expenditures 2004 alloc. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 REVENUES Sales Revenues Foreign Credit Other revenues 163,591 151,842 273,552 227,601 283,624 264,180 493,950 466,543 666,459 619,952 11,749 45,951 19,444 27,407 46,507 EXPENDITURES Investment Recurrent Payments outside of appropriation 1/ 205,391 6,022 199,369 273,223 11,037 222,421 39,766 283,019 13,065 269,954 442,131 23,061 419,070 548,591 22,654 525,937 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 alloc. REVENUES Sales Revenues Foreign Credit Other revenues 186,500 166,500 429 19,571 286,800 240,000 300 46,500 296,300 260,000 270 36,030 415,725 365,725 592,700 535,000 751,000 670,000 50,000 57,700 81,000 EXPENDITURES Investment Recurrent Payments outside of appropriation 1/ 186,500 16,000 170,500 286,800 22,800 264,000 296,300 28,300 268,000 415,725 38,350 377,375 592,700 47,950 544,750 751,000 52,500 698,500 B. Initial Budget 1/ Due to low revenues in 1999, MOF made an additional allocation to the revolving fund of GDF in 2000 Source: GDF APPENDIX 2 The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) is a multi-sector and integrated regional development effort approached in the context of sustainable development. Its basic objectives include the improvement of living standards and income levels of people so as to eliminate regional development disparities and contributing to such national goals as social stability and economic growth by enhancing productivity and employment opportunities in the rural sector. The project area covers 9 administrative provinces (Adiyaman, Batman, Diyarbakir, Gaziantep, Kilis, Mardin, Siirt, Sanliurfa and Sirnak) in the basins of the Euphrates and Tigris and in Upper Mesopotamia. The development program encompasses such sectors as irrigation, hydraulic energy, agriculture, rural and urban infrastructure, forestry, education and health. The water resources development component of the program envisages the construction of 22 dams and 19 hydraulic power plants and irrigation of 1.7 million hectares of land. The total cost of the project during the project period of 1990-2010 is estimated as US$ 32 billion. The total installed capacity of power plants is 7476 MW and projected annual energy production reaches 27 billion kWh. In 1986, State Planning Organization was given the mandate of addressing development activities in Southeastern Anatolia within the framework of integrated regional planning and ensuring the coordination of these activities. Starting as an energy and irrigation project to develop the rich land and water resources of the region, GAP was transformed into an integrated regional development project with the completion of the GAP Master Plan in 1989. The Master Plan is a guide for plans, programs and projects to be designed in conformity with the overall line and sub-scales that the development of the region will follow. The Master Plan formulates the basic objective as "raising the development indicators of the region up to country standards in shortest possible time", defines economic and social targets serving to this objective and adopts the basic strategy of "transforming the region into an export center for agriculture based goods". The mandate of carrying out the project along the lines of integrated regional development and ensuring required coordination was given to the GAP Regional Development Administration as an entity established in 1989 under the Prime Ministry. The decision making body is the GAP Higher Council presided by the Prime Minister and consisting of the State Minister in Charge of GAP, State Minister in Charge of State Planning Organization and Minister of Public Works and Settlement in Sanliurfa. Overall objectives of GAP include the following: Raising the level of income in the GAP region by improving the economic structure of the region and thus reducing regional development disparities; enhancing productivity and employment opportunities in rural areas, enhancing the population absorption capacities of big centers in the region and to contribute to economic growth, social stability and export promotion as national objectives by efficient utilization of the resources of the region. In terms of agriculture sector the objectives are: Raising levels of income in rural areas by increasing agricultural productivity and diversifying farming activities; providing sufficient inputs to agro-industries; minimize rural migration tendencies in the region by enhancing employment opportunities and contributing to the production of exportable goods. The financing needs of public investments that must be made for attaining the targets and magnitudes bet by the GAP Master Plan for the period 1990-2005 is 22.6 Quadrillion TL at 2002 fixed prices. As of the end of 2001, 10.9 Quadrillion TL has been spent for GAP, pointing out to a cash realization ratio of 48.1percent. GAP PROJECT COST AND CASH REALIZATIONS BY SECTORS AS OF THE END OF THE YEAR 2001 (Billion TL at 2002 Prices) ECONOMIC SECTORS Total Cost (Required Funds) Cumulative Investments by the end of 2001 Realization (%) 6 811 714 1 144 319 16.8 522 393 530 243 100.0 Manufacturing 1 005 673 408 021 40.6 Energy 7 236 872 5 696 882 78.7 Transportation-Communication 4 982 234 1 677 455 33.7 Tourism 37 823 9 495 25.1 TOTAL 20 596 708 9 446 416 46.0 Housing 217 702 76 730 35.2 Education and Health 597 004 507 231 85.0 Other Public Services 1 094 444 781 478 71.4 TOTAL 1 909 150 1 369 288 71.7 GRAND TOTAL 22 505 859 10 831 855 48.1 Agriculture Mining SOCIAL SECTORS GAP investments consist of the combination of various projects and activities conducted by different organizations and agencies in economic and social sectors. Allocations made for investments to be made by different organizations and agencies in various sectors are included in the investment budgets of these organizations and used by them. COMPARATIVE TRENDS IN PUBLIC INVESTMENTS IN GAP (FOR THE PERIOD 1990 2002) Looking at the trend of GAP investments in the period 1990-2001, it is observed that the region has an average annual share of 7percent in total investment allocations. In 2002, the share of GAP investments in total increased by 10.7 percent over the previous year and reached 5.4percent. However, considering the decision to complete the project fully by the year 2010, it becomes apparent that investment allocations to GAP need to be increased considerably in order to complete the project by the target year. (Billion TL at 2002 Prices) TURKEY Investment Allocation Increase (%) Investment Allocation Increase (%) Share of GAP in National Total (%) 1990 8 096 812 -6.3 657 842 -1.5 8.1 1991 7 586 379 +3.5 647 700 -10.9 8.5 1992 7 854 199 -4.6 576 716 -1.5 7.3 1993 7 488 466 -21.6 567 911 -22.2 7.6 1994 5 870 933 -28.0 442 000 -30.8 7.5 1995 4 227 556 +27.1 305 862 +21.4 7.2 1996 5 375 971 +7.9 371 335 +20.2 6.9 1997 5 802 429 +45.2 446 283 +25.6 7.7 1998 8 427 492 -8.9 560 380 -19.6 6.6 1999 7 680 218 +16.4 450 654 +41.9 5.9 2000 8 939 816 -1.2 639 454 -32.0 7.1 2001 8 836 021 +11.5 434 792 +22.2 4.9 2002 9 855 000 Years GAP 531 658 5.4