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Spatial modeling of predatorassisted dispersal Carl Leth Tanner Hill Nichole Zimmerman Colorado State University FEScUE Program, Summer 2008 Lines of Logic Spatial dispersal of prey species Predator preference We propose to couple these two ideas through predator-assisted dispersal Results from Dispersal Studies Local dispersal has been found to promote the persistence of interacting populations1 Wave-like patterns can occur by dispersing predators and prey2 1. Comins and Hassell 1996 2. Savill and Hogeweg 1999 Results from Preference Studies Predator preference with switching has been found to promote stability and persistence in some cases1 Preference switching lags behind the optimum for changing prey densities2 Variable interaction strengths can help stabilize a system3 1. Bonsall and Hassell 1999 2. Abrams and Matsuda 2004 3. McCann et al. 1998 Predator-Assisted Dispersal Combines dispersal and predator preference Predators may carry their prey to different spatial locations and deposit them there Empirical studies show that this occurs in nature Example of Predator-Assisted Dispersal Dromph looked at collembolans dispersing entomopathogenic fungi Dromph 2001 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Isotoma_Habitus.jpg Empirical Studies: Fungi Dispersal Aided by their Predators Rodents were found likely to be important in the dispersal of vesiculararbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) fungus spores1 Australian mammals feeding on hypogeous fungi increased spore dispersal2 1. Janos and Sahley 1995 2. Johnson 1995 Empirical Studies: Fungi Dispersal Aided by their Predators Mammals were observed to disperse spores of ectomycorrhizal fungi1 Grasshoppers and small mammals transported fungal spores2 1. Cázares and Trappe 1994 2. Warner, Allen, and MacMahon 1987 Our Proposal We will model predator-assisted dispersal of a two prey system with predator preference Preliminary results Intended studies A Brief Overview of the Model Use spatially explicit mathematical model Program simulations in Matlab Simplify model to validate simulation and examine underlying mechanisms Spatial Model Modeled as a rectangular grid Prey are dispersed locally Spatial Model Predators have very high mobility relative to prey, can feed from any patch at any time Predator-Assisted Dispersal Prey have a chance to be carried by predators foraging in their patch Predators deposit prey in a random patch Questions 1. 2. 3. Given predator-assisted dispersal, how does predator preference affect the final densities of the prey species? How does predator-assisted dispersal affect the resistance of static prey densities in the face of a spatial disturbance? How does predator-assisted dispersal affect the resilience of the system in the face of prey-specific infection? Question 1 Hypotheses Given predator-assisted dispersal, how does predator preference affect the final densities of the prey species? High preference decreases fitness due to increased consumption High preference increases fitness due to increased dispersal There is an optimal degree of preference for fitness that balances mortality due to consumption with dispersal Investigating Question 1: Benefits of Preference Give predators a constant predation rate between the two species Vary degree of preference for one species Measure changes in final densities Question 2 Hypotheses How does predator-assisted dispersal affect the resistance of static prey densities in the face of a spatial disturbance? There is no effect Densities are more resistant to change than in control cases Densities are less resistant to change than in control cases Investigating Question 2: Spatial Disturbance Vary size and distribution of disturbance Measure recovery time and prey densities after recovery Question 3 Hypotheses How does predator-assisted dispersal affect the resilience of the system in the face of prey-specific infection? No effect Resilience is decreased because the predators carry infected individuals Resilience is increased because it causes patchiness Patchiness Investigating Question 3: Infection Allow prey to fully colonize habitat Introduce a species-specific infection using an SIR model Measure resilience by how virulent the infection must be to cause extinction of a species The Model dX 1 1 X 1 1 X 1 X 2 c1 PX 1 1 ( X 1 ) dt K1 1 X1 2 dX 2 2 X 2 2 X 1 X 2 c2 PX 2 2 ( X 2 ) dt K2 1 X 2 2 dP a1c1 PX 1 a2 c2 PX 2 P dt 1 X1 1 X 2 The Model: Mortality Dispersal Prey undergo local dispersal with reflective boundary X i , p (1 i ) X i , p i X i ,q / 8 ' q Comins & Hassell 1996 SIR Model dS dX iIS rR dt dt dI iIS I mI dt dR I rR dt SIR Model Simplifications of the Model Two competing species in absence of a predator One species in presence of a predator Two competing species in presence of a predator Predator preference, no assisted dispersal Predator-assisted dispersal of a single prey species The Model: Mortality Two competing species in absence of a predator Predator preference, no assisted dispersal Allows us to measure only the negative effect of preference Possible outcomes Exclusion due to preference Decreased final density Predator preference, no assisted dispersal Predator-assisted dispersal of a single prey species Allows us to examine the simplest case of predator-assisted dispersal Possible outcomes Similar outcomes to single predator-prey simplification Increases the speed of colonization Predator-assisted dispersal of a single prey species Complete Model: Predatorassisted dispersal of two prey Complete Model: Predatorassisted dispersal of two prey Summary Predator-assisted dispersal combines independent dispersal models with predator preference There is a gap in knowledge at the intersection of these two ideas We propose a mathematical model which investigates these dynamics Future Work Other Models Poisson process Alternate equations Discrete time models Empirical Studies Preference studies Collembolla and fungus Acknowledgement s FEScUE and NSF Michael Antolin, Dan Cooley, Don Estep, Sheldon Lee, Stephanie McMahonn, John Moore, Simon Tavener, Colleen Webb References Abrams, P.A., Hiroyuki Matsuda. 2004. Consequences of behavioral dynamics for the population dynamics of predatorprey systems with switching. Popul Ecol 46:13-25. Bonsall, Michael B. Michael P. Hassell. 1999. Parasitiod-mediated effects: apparent competition and the persistence of hostparasitiod assemblages. Res Popul Ecol 41:59-68. Cázares, Efrén, James M. Trappe. 1994. Spore dispersal of ectomycorrhizal fungi on a glacier forefront by mammal mycophagy. Mycologia 86:507-510. Comins, H.N., M.P. Hassell. 1996. Persisence of Multispecies Host-Parasitoid Interactions in Spatially Distributed Models with Local Dispersal. J. theor. Biol. 183:19-28. Dromph, Karsten M., 2001. Dispersal of entomopathogenic fungi by collembolans. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 33:2047-2051. References Continued… Janos, David P., Catherine T. Sahley. 1995. Rodent Dispersal of Vesicular-Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi in Amasonian Peru. Ecology 76:1852-1858. Johnson, C.N., 1995. Interactions between fire, mycophagous mammals, and dispersal of ectromycorrhizal fungi in Eucalyptus forests. Oecologia 104:467-475. Krause, A. E., K. A. Frank, D. M. Mason, R. E. Ulanowicz, W. W. Taylor. 2003. Compartments revealed in food-web structure. Nature 426:282285. McCann, Kevin, Alan Hastings, Gary R. Huxel. 1998. Weak trophic interactions and the balance of nature. Nature 395: 794-797. Savill, Nicholas J., Paulien Hogeweg. 1999. Competition and Dispersal in Predator-Prey Waves. Theoretical Population Biology 56: 243-263. Waren, Nancy J., Michael F. Allen, James A. MacMahon. 1987. Dispersal Agents of Vesicular-Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi in a disturbed Arid Ecosystem. Mycologia 79:721-730.