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AP Statistics Text: Peck, Olsen & Devore. Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis. Thomson Brooks/Cole, 2008, 3rd edition Carroll, Carver, Peters & Ricks. AP Statistics – AP Test Prep Series. Pearson, 2007, 2nd edition Bohan, James F. AP Statistics – Preparing for the Advanced Placement Examination. AMSCO, 2006, 2nd edition Texas Instruments TI-83 (Plus) Graphing Calculator Guidebook Course Description: This course is designed to give students technical proficiency in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data using statistical measures. This involves being well versed in statistical concepts that not only carry out these procedures but also can be used to question the validity of them as well. Statistics is used as a means to describe how events or objects behaved in the past as well as to predict how they will behave in the future. Students will be asked to take an active role in this process by designing their own project that will require them to investigate a topic that is relevant to their personal interests. By controlling the entire investigation from the design of their experiment and collection of data through the presentation of their results, students will gain their own understanding of the concepts and techniques of statistics. The textbook and class lecture will be used to supplement this understanding by providing vocabulary and case studies that enhance the students’ ability to complete this project. In addition, formal assessments such as homework and tests will be an essential component to gauge students’ mastery of different statistical concepts before this project is assigned. Technology will be emphasized on a daily basis to ensure students receive the most up to date instruction as possible. Through the academic rigor of this course and the opportunities it provides for exploring relevant topics, students will gain an appreciation for statistics and its role in describing the real world around us. Technology Students will have access to a class set of TI-83 Plus calculators. If needed, they may check out a calculator on a nightly basis for home use. Students will have access to a computer lab on a weekly basis where they may use Minitab to analyze data. There will be assignments where it will be required to use this program. The use of Applets on online through the textbook’s website I use a TI-83 Plus calculator with an overhead display for class demonstrations. I also use an LCD projector to show PowerPoint presentations showcasing many different statistical concepts. Course Outline (follows chapters in textbook) Chapter Class Days 1. The Role of Statistics and the Data Analysis Process 2 2. Collecting Data Sensibly 5 3. Graphical Methods for Describing Data 5 4. Numerical Methods for Describing Data 7 5. Summarizing Bivariate Data 10 6. Probability 10 Part I – Review and Testing 2 7. Random Variables and Probability Distributions 10 8. Sampling Variability and Sampling Distributions 8 9. Estimation Using a Single Sample 8 10. Hypothesis Testing Using a Single Sample 12 Part II– Review and Testing 2 First Semester Exam 1 11. Comparing Two Populations or Treatments 15 12. The Analysis of Categorical Data and Goodness-of-Fit Tests 15 13. Simple Linear Regression and Correlation: Inferential Methods 15 Review for AP Exam and Final Exam 10 Part III – AP Exam and Final Exam 3 14. Multiple Regression Analysis 8 15. Analysis of Variance 7 Final Project Course Content CHAPTER 1: The Role of Statistics and the Data Analysis Process Reasons to study statistics Variability The Data Analysis Process ACTIVITY: Estimating Sizes ACTIVITY: A Meaningful Paragraph 15 CHAPTER 2: Collecting Data Sensibly Observation and experimentation Sampling – stratified, cluster, systematic, convenience Bias Experimental design – blocking, direct control, replication Control groups Placebos Designing surveys Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses ACTIVITY: Designing a Sampling Plan ACTIVITY: Video Games and Pain Management CHAPTER 3: Graphical Methods for Describing Data Comparative bar charts and pie charts Stem-and-Leaf displays Frequency distributions and histograms Displaying bivariate numerical data Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses Using the TI-83 Plus ACTIVITY: Locating States CHAPTER 4: Numerical Methods for Describing Data Mean – sample mean and population mean Median Minitab ACTIVITY: NBA Salaries Range Variance and standard deviation Quartiles Boxplots Empirical rule Z-Scores Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses ACTIVITY: Airline Passenger Weights CHAPTER 5: Summarizing Bivariate Data Correlation – correlation coefficient Correlation versus causation Linear regression – fitting a line to bivariate data Scatterplots – Using the TI-83 Plus Least squares regression line Regression to the mean Extrapolation Residual plots Coefficient of determination Nonlinear relationships and transformations Power transformations Using Minitab to compute r and r2 ACTIVITY: Exploring Correlation and Regression Technology Activity CHAPTER 6: Probability Definition of probability, outcomes, and events Law of large numbers Basic properties of probability Conditional probability Independent/Dependent events Replacement Addition/Multiplication Rule Law of Total Probability Estimating probabilities empirically using simulation – Using TI-83 Plus ACTIVITY: A Crisis for European Sports Fans? ACTIVITY: The “Hot Hand” in Basketball CHAPTER 7: Random Variables and Probability Distributions Random variables – discrete and continuous Mean and standard deviation of discrete and continuous variables Probability distributions – density functions Binomial and Geometric Distributions Normal Distributions – finding and interpreting Using the TI-83 Plus and Minitab ACTIVITY: Rotten Eggs? CHAPTER 8: Sampling Variability and Sampling Distributions Sampling variability Sampling distribution – of a sample mean and sample proportion ACTIVITY: Do Students Who Take the SATs Multiple Times Have an Advantage in College Admissions? CHAPTER 9: Estimation Using a Single Sample Point estimates - biased/unbiased statistics Confidence intervals and confidence levels – large and small samples Standard error Confidence interval for a population mean t-distributions – using Minitab Interpreting and communicating the results of statistical analyses o Confidence levels and standard error Applet ACTIVITY: Getting a Feel for Confidence Level ACTIVITY: Verifying Signatures on a Recall Petition CHAPTER 10: Hypothesis Testing Using a Single Sample Hypothesis and test procedures – null and alternative hypothesis Type I and Type II errors Level of significance Large sample hypothesis tests for a population proportion p-values – how to interpret and communicate Steps in a hypothesis-testing analysis Hypothesis tests for a population mean Upper/Lower/Two-tailed tests – Using Minitab Power and probability of Type II error Minitab ACTIVITY: Comparing t and z Distributions ACTIVITY: Creating a Test for a Survey MIDTERM: Chapters 1-10 Review using previous AP questions CHAPTER 11: Comparing Two Populations or Treatments Inferences concerning the difference between two population or treatment means using independent AND paired samples Large sample inferences concerning a difference between two population or treatment proportions Matched pairs hypothesis test and confidence interval Internet ACTIVITY: Helium-Filled Footballs? TI-83 Plus Activities for understanding CHAPTER 12: The Analysis of Categorical Data and Goodness-of-Fit Tests Chi-Square tests for univariate data One-way frequency tables Goodness-of-fit statistic and tests Two-way frequency tables – tests for homogeneity and independence Marginal/Grand totals Testing for independence of two categorical variables How to choose the correct test TI-83 Plus Activities for understanding ACTIVITY: Pick a Number, Any Number ACTIVITY: Color and Perceived Taste CHAPTER 13: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation: Inferential Methods Simple linear regression model – basic assumptions ACTIVITY: Stand on Your Head to Lose Weight? Estimating the population regression line Estimating standard deviation and variance Properties of the sampling distribution of b Model utility test for simple linear regression Checking model adequacy Small Group ACTIVITY: Are Tall Women from “Big” Families? REVIEW FOR AP EXAM AND FINAL EXAM Review 2010 AP Exam Practice AP Exam Final Exam AP Exam POST AP EXAM Chapter 14: Multiple Regression Analysis Chapter 15: Single-Factor ANOVA and the F Test How to Use Minitab and the TI-83 Plus for both Chapter 14 and Chapter 15 Final Project (explained on next page) Final Project DESCRIPTION: Students will design and conduct an experiment to investigate the effects of response bias in surveys. They may choose the topic for their surveys, but they must design their experiment so that it can answer at least one of the following questions: Can the wording of a question create response bias? Do the characteristics of the interviewer create response bias? Does anonymity change the responses to sensitive questions? Does manipulating the answer choices change the response? The project will be done in pars. Students will turn in one project per pair. A written report must be typed and included graphs should be done on the computer using Excel. PROPOSAL: The proposal should Describe the topic and state which type of bias is being investigated Describe how to obtain subjects (minimum sample size is 50) Describe what questions will be and how they will be asked, including how to incorporate direct control, blocking, and randomization. WRITTEN REPORT: The written report should include a title in the form of a question and the following sections: Introduction: What form of response bias was investigated? Why was the topic chosen for the survey? Methodology: Describe how the experiment was conducted and justify why the design was effective. (This section should be very similar to the proposal) Results: Present the data in both tables and graphs in such a way that conclusions can be easily made. Make sure to label the graphs/tables clearly and consistently. Conclusions: What conclusions can be drawn from the experiment? Be specific. Were any problems encountered during the project? What could be done different if the experiment were to be repeated? What was learned from this project? POSTER: The poster should completely summarize the project, yet be simple enough to be understood by any reader. Students should include some pictures of the data collection in progress. ORAL PRESENTATION: Both members will participate equally. The poster should be used as a visual aid. Students should be prepared for questions.