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CHAPTER 10 ONE SAMPLE TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS 1. (a) Since the values of population mean, , corresponding to H1 ( 50) lie on both sides of the values of corresponding to H0, ( = 50), this is a two-tailed test. (b) Since the sample size is large enough, and the value of the population standard deviation, , is known, we shall use as test statistic Z X 0 n X 50 . This is a two-tailed Z5 36 test. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is less than -z = -z0.025 = -1.96 or if it is greater than z0.025 = 1.96. 3. 49 50 - 1.2. 5 36 (c) The value of the test statistic is z (d) The computed z-value (= -1.2), lies between –1.96 and 1.96. Hence, we shall conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1. (e) P-value = 2 ( P (Z < -1.2 ) = 2 ( 0.5 – 0.3849 ) = 0.2302. Our decision will be to reject H0 in favour of H1 for any value of greater than 0.2302. (a) Since the values of population mean, , corresponding to H1 ( > 20) are greater than the values of corresponding to H0, ( ≤ 20) this is an upper- tailed test. (b) The sample size (n = 49) is large enough for normal approximation and the value of population standard deviation, , is known. Hence, we shall use as test statistic Z = X 0 n X 20 . 6 49 The value of is given as 0.05. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is greater than z = z0.05 = 1.645. 5. x 0 The value of the test statistic is z (d) The computed z-value (= 1.167) is less than 1.645. Hence, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1. (e) The P-value = P (Z > 1.167) (0.5 – 0.3784) = 0.1216. Our decision would be to reject H0 in favour of H1 for any value of greater than 0.1216. a. n The null and the alternative hypotheses are: Ho: 80000 H1: < 80000 10-1 21 20 1.167. 6 49 (c) b. Since the values of corresponding to H1 (≤ 80000) are less than the values of corresponding to H0 ( 80000), this is a lower-tailed test. We shall use as test statistic X 0 n X 80000 . 8000 48 The sample size (n = 48) is large enough for normal approximation. Hence, this is a lowertailed Z-test. . The value of is given as 0.05. The decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is less than -z = -z0.05 = -1.645. (c) 7. The value of the z-statistic is z 79200 80000 8000 48 0.693 . (d) Since, the computed z-value (= -0.693) is greater than –1.645, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to conclude the manufacturer’s claim is wrong. (e) The P-value is P (Z < -0.693) (0.5 – 0.2558) = 0.2442. Our decision would be to reject H0 in favour of H1 for any value of greater than 0.2442. (a) The null and the alternative hypotheses are : H0 : = 6.0 H1 : ≠ 6.0 (b) The probability of type I error is = 0.05. (c) We shall use as test statistic X 0 n X 6 . 0.5 n Since the population distribution is approximately normal, this is a Z statistic. (d) The test is a two-tailed Z-test. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed zvalue is less than -z/2 = -z0.025 = –1.96 or greater than z0.025 = 1.96. (e) (i) The computed z-value is z 5.84 6 0.5 64 2.56 . The z-value is less than –1.96. Hence, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0, that is, to infer that the mean turnover rate has changed. 10-2 (ii) The P-value is 2 (P (Z > 2.56) = 2 (0.5 – 0.4948) = 0.0104. We would reject H0 for any value of greater than 0.0104. (iii) The decision rule could be equivalently stated as: reject H0 if X is less than 0.5 0.5 6.0 (1.96) 5.8775 or if X is greater than 6.0 (1.96) 6.1225 64 64 0.5 Normal 5.9, If the true value of is 5.9, then X ~ Normal , n 64 z-value corresponding to x = 5.8775, is z z-value corresponding to x = 6.1225, is z 5.8775 5.9 0.5 64 6.1225 5.9 0.5 64 0.36 3.56 Probability of type II error = = P(-0.36 ≤ Z ≤ 3.56) = P(-0.36 ≤ Z ≤ 0) + P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 3.56) = (approximately) 0.1406 + 0.5 = 0.6406 Power of the test = (1 - ) = (approximately) (1 – 0.6406) = 0.3594. 9. (a) This is an upper-tailed test. The value of is given as 0.05. X 0 X 10 . Since the population distribution S n S 10 is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 10, is approximately We shall use as test statistic T student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1). Thus, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 9, t = t0.05 = 1.833. Hence, our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than 1.833. 11. 12 10 2.108. 3 10 (b) The value of test statistic is t (c) The computed t-value (= 2.108) is greater than 1.833. Hence, we shall conclude that there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1. (a) Let the mean number of videos college students watched last month be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 6.8 H1 : < 6.8 (b) The value of is given as 0.05. 10-3 X 0 X 6.8 . Since the population S n S 36 distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 6.8, is We shall use as test statistic T approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 35. Thus, this is a lower-tailed ttest. For df = 35, t = t0.05 = (approximately)1.69. Hence, our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -t0.05 -1.69. (c) (d) 13. The computed t-value is t 6.2 - 6.8 0.5 36 7.2 . Since the computed t-value (= -7.2) is less than –1.69, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the college students, on average, watched less than 6.8 videos last month. Let the mean life of the modified battery be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0: 305 H1: > 305 The value of is given as 0.05. X 0 X 305 . Since the population S n S 20 We shall use as test statistic T distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 305, is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n – 1) = 19. Thus, this is an upper-tailed ttest. For df = 19, t = t0.05 = 1.729. Hence, our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than t0.05 = 1.729. The computed t-value is t 311 - 305 12 20 2.236 . Since 2.236 > 1.729, there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0, that is, to infer that the modification increased the mean battery life to more than 305 days. 15. Let the population mean of assembly times (in minutes) using the new method be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 42.3 H1 : < 42.3 We have selected = 0.1. X 0 X 42.3 . Since the population S n S 24 distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 42.3, is We shall use as test statistic T 10-4 approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n – 1) = 23. Thus, this is a lower-tailed ttest. For df = 23, t = t0.1 = 1.319. Hence, our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than t0.1 = -1.319. The computed t-value is t 40.6 - 42.3 2.7 24 3.085 Since –3.085 < –1.319, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.1, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the new assembling method is faster. 17. Let the population mean of service times (in minutes) be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 15 H1 : > 15 This is an upper-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 15 . Since the population distribution S n S 21 is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 15, is approximately We shall use as test statistic T student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 20. Thus, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 20, t = t0.05 = 1.725. Hence, our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than t0.05 = 1.725. The computed t-value is t 18 - 15 1 21 13.748 . Since t > 1.725, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to infer that the advertised claim is incorrect. 19. Let the mean weight (in kg) of the chickens after the special additive is added to the feed, be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1.9 H1: > 1.9 This is an upper-tailed test. We have selected = 0.01. X 0 X 1.9 . Since the population S n S 10 distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 1.9, is We shall use as test statistic T approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 9. Thus, this is an upper-tailed ttest. For df = 9, t = t0.01 = 2.821. Hence, our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than t0.01 = 2.821. For the given sample data, 10-5 x s 2.01 1.92 1.98 1.934 10 2.01 1.9342 1.92 1.9342 1.98 1.9342 The computed t-value is t 9 1.934 - 1.9 0.05 10 0.05 2.15 . Since t < 2.821, we conclude that there is insufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to infer that the special additive increased mean weight of chickens. P-value is the area under the t-curve (corresponding to df = 9) to the right of 2.15. From the t-table, we see that the P-value is between 0.025 and 0.05 (using Minitab, we get Pvalue = 0.03). 21. Let the population mean of number of trout caught per day be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 4.0 H1 : > 4.0 This is an upper-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 4 . Since the population distribution S n S 12 is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 4, is approximately We shall use as test statistic T student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 11. Thus, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 11, t = t0.05 = 1.796. Hence, our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than t0.05 = 1.796. For the given sample data, x s 4 4 6 4.5 12 4 4.52 4 4.52 6 4.52 11 The computed t-value is t 4.5 - 4 2.68 12 2.68 0.65 Since t < 1.796, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the population mean is greater than 4.0. P-value is the area under the t-curve (corresponding to df = 11) to the right of 0.65. From the t-table, we see that the P-value is greater than 0.1 (using Minitab, we get P-value = 0.2645). 10-6 23. pˆ p0 pˆ 0.7 . ˆ ˆ ( p )(1 p ) / n (0.7)(0.3) /100 We shall use as test statistic n p0 = (100)(0.7) > 5 and n (1- p0) = (100)(0.3) > 5. Hence, if p = 0.7, the distribution of the test statistic is approximately standard normal. We shall therefore apply an upper-tailed Z-test. We have selected = 0.05. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed value of the test statistic (the z-value) is greater than z = z0.05 = 1.645. 0.75 0.70 The computed z-value is z = 1.09. 0.70(0.30) 100 Since the computed z-value (= 1.09) is less than 1.645, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1. 25. The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : p 0.52 H1 : p > 0.52 For the sample size n = 300, n p0 = (300)(0.52) > 5 and n (1- p0) = (300)(0.48) > 5. Hence, the sample size is large enough for normal approximation. We shall use as test statistic Z = pˆ 0.52 . (0.52)(0.48) / 300 This is an upper-tailed Z-test. We have selected = 0.01. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is greater than z = z0.01 = 2.326. pˆ 170 0.567. 300 The computed z-value is z = pˆ 0.52 (0.52)(0.48) / 300 0.567-0.52 0.52 0.48 = 1.62. 300 Since the computed z-value is less than 2.326, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that proportion of men, driving yesterday on the Highway 401, was larger than 0.52. 27. The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : p 0.90 H1 : p < 0.90 For the sample size n = 100, n p0 = (100)(0.9) > 5 and n (1- p0) = (100)(0.1) > 5. Hence, the sample size is large enough for normal approximation. We shall use as test statistic Z = pˆ 0.9 . (0.9)(0.1) /100 This is a lower-tailed Z-test. We have selected = 0.1; z = z0.1 = (approximately) 1.281. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is less than -z = -z0.1 -1.281. 10-7 pˆ 82 0.82. 100 The computed z-value is z = 0.82-0.9 0.9 0.1 100 = -2.67. Since the computed z-value (-2.67) is less than –1.281, we conclude that we have sufficient evidence at = 0.1 to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that proportion of orders delivered in less than 10 minutes is less than 0.9. 29. Let the average weight loss (in kg) in the first 2 weeks among those who join the new weight reduction program be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 5 H1 : < 5 We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 5 . Since the population S n S 50 We shall use as test statistic T distribution is approximately normal and the sample size (n = 50) is large enough, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 5, is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 49. Thus, this is a lower-tailed t-test. For df = 49, t = t0.05 = approximately 1.678. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -t0.05 1.678. The computed t-value is t 4.6 - 5 1.3 50 2.176 . Since the computed t-value (= -2.176) is less than -1.677, we conclude that there is sufficient evidence at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is to infer that the average weight loss in first two weeks among those who join the weight reduction program is less than 5 kg. The P-value is the area under the t-curve (corresponding to df = 49) to the left to –2.176. From the t-table, we find that the P-value is between 0.01 and 0.025. Using Minitab, we get the P-value = 0.0172. 31. Let the population mean of current selling times of farm property in Nova Scotia be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 90 H1 : > 90 This is an upper-tailed test. We have selected = 0.1. X 0 X 90 . Since the population S n S 100 We shall use as test statistic T distribution is approximately normal and the sample size (n = 100) is large enough, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 90, is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 99. Thus, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 99, t = t0.1 = (approximately) 1.291. 10-8 Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than t0.1 1.291. The computed t-value is t 94 - 90 22 100 1.818 . Since the computed t-value (= 1.818) is greater than 1.291, we conclude that we have sufficient evidence, at = 0.1, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is to infer that the population mean of current selling times is greater than 90 days. 33. Let the mean of the amount of time per day spent by all the Canadian men above the age of 15 on paid work be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 3.1 H1 : < 3.1 This is a lower-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 3.1 . Since the population S n S 60 We shall use as test statistic T distribution is approximately normal and the sample size (n = 60) is large enough, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 3.1, is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 59. Thus, this is a lower-tailed t-test. For df = 59, t = t0.05 = approximately 1.671. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than –1.671. The computed t-value is t 2.95 - 3.1 1.2 60 0.968 . Since the computed t-value (= -0.968) is greater than –1.671, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is to infer that the population mean is less than 3.1 hours. P-value = P (T < -0.968). From the t-table, we see that the P-value is greater than 0.1. Using Minitab, we get P (T < -0.968) = 0.1685. So, the P-value = 0.1685. We would reject H0 for any value of greater than 0.1685. 35. (a) Let the population mean of weights of bags produces today be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 25 H1 : < 25 This is a lower-tailed test. We have selected = 0.01. X 0 X 25 . n 1.2 10 We shall use as test statistic Z z = z0.01 = 2.326. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is less than –2.326. For the given sample data, 10-9 x 24.2 24.1 24.5 24.56 10 The computed z-value is z 24.56 - 25 1.2 10 1.1595 Since the computed z-value (= -1.1595) is greater than -2.326, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is to infer that the population mean of weights of bags produced today is less than 25 kg. (b) The population distribution is approximately normal and is known. Hence, for = 25, the distribution of X 25 is approximately standard normal distribution. We shall, 10 assume it to be Z and apply the Z-test. (c) 37. P-value = (Z ≤ -1.1595) = approximately (0.5 – 0.377) = 0.123. Let the population mean of fuel consumption rate be litres/100 km. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 2.6 H1 : < 2.6 This is a lower-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 2.6 . Since the population S n S 8 distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 2.6, is We shall use as test statistic T approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n – 1) = 7. Thus, this is a lower-tailed ttest. For df = 7, t = t0.05 = 1.895. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -t0.05 = -1.895. For the given sample data, x s 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.488 8 2.5 2.4882 2.4 2.4882 2.4 2.4882 The computed t-value is t 7 2.488 - 2.6 0.155 8 10-10 2.044 0.155 Since the computed t-value (= -2.044) is less than –1.895, we conclude that we have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the population mean of gasoline consumption rate is less than 2.6 litres/100 km. 39. Let the average monthly coffee consumption (in litres) of students at the University of Windsor be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : = 4.8 H1 : 4.8 This is a two-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 4.8 . Since the population S n S 12 distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 4.8, is We shall use as test statistic T approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n – 1) = 11. Thus, this is a two-tailed ttest. For df = 11, t/2 = t0.025 = 2.201. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than –2.201 or if it is greater than 2.201. For the given sample data, x s 4.75 4.96 5.26 4.978 12 4.75 4.9782 4.96 4.9782 5.26 4.9782 The computed t-value is t 11 4.978 - 4.8 0.374 12 0.374 1.649 Since the computed t-value (= 1.649) is between –2.201 and +2.201, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the average monthly coffee consumption of University of Windsor students differs from the national average of 4.8 litres. 41. Let the population mean of number of returns per day from online shoppers of Egolf.com be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 6.5 H1 : < 6.5 This is a lower-tailed test. We have selected = 0.01. X 0 X 6.5 . Since the population S n S 12 distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 6.5, is We shall use as test statistic T approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n – 1) = 11. Thus, this is a lower-tailed ttest. 10-11 For df = 11, t = t0.01 = 2.718. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -t0.05 = 2.718. For the given sample data, x s 0 4 10 5.1667 11 0 5.1667 2 4 5.1667 2 10 5.1667 2 The computed t-value is t 11 5.1667 6.5 3.1575 12 3.1575 1.463 Since the computed t-value (= -1.463) is greater than –2.718, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the population mean of number of returns per day is less than 6.5. 43. Let the population mean of gain in time per week for the watches be seconds. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : = 0 H1 : 0 This is a two-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 0 . Since the population distribution S n S 18 is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 0, is approximately We shall use as test statistic T student’s t-distribution with df = (n –1) = 17. Thus, this is a two-tailed t-test. For df = 17, t/2 = t0.025 = 2.11. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than –2.11 or if it is greater than 2.11. For the given sample data, x s 0.38 0.2 0.05 0.2322 18 0.38 0.23222 0.2 0.23222 0.05 0.23222 The computed t-value is t 17 - 0.2322 - 0 0.312 18 0.312 3.158 Since the computed t-value (= -3.158) is less than –2.11, we conclude that we have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the population mean of gain in time per week is not zero. P-value = 2P (T > 3.158). From the t-table, we see that the P-value is between 2 (0.005) = 0.01 and 2 (0.0005) = 0.001 (Using Minitab, we get P-value = 2 (0.0029) = 0.0058). 10-12 45. (a) 10 250 1.645 n 36 The lower control limit should be z0.05 = 247.26 ml. 10 250 1.645 n 36 The upper control limit should be z0.05 = 252.74 ml. (b) If the value of shifts to 245, then the distribution of sample mean X will be 10 Normal 245, . n 36 The change will not be detected if the value of X obtained is greater than the lower approximately Normal , control limit, which is 247.26. Thus, we want area under the normal curve to right of 247.26. z-value corresponding to 247.26 is z 247.26-245 1.356 . 10 36 From the Z-table, area under the Z-curve between 0 and 1.356 is approximately 0.4125. Hence area to the right of 1.356 is approximately (0.5 – 0.4125) = 0.0875. The probability that the change will not be detected is 0.0875. (c) If the value of shifts to 253, then the distribution of sample mean X will be 10 Normal 253, . n 36 The change will not be detected if the value of X obtained is less than the upper control approximately Normal , limit, which is 252.74. Thus, we want area under the normal curve to left of 252.74. z-value corresponding to 252.74 is z 252.74-253 0.156 . 10 36 From the Z-table, area under the Z-curve between 0 and 0.156 is approximately 0.062. Hence area to the left of –0.156 is approximately (0.5 – 0.062) = 0.438. The probability that the change will not be detected is 0.438. 47. This is an upper-tailed test. Since the population distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of X is approximately normal. Furthermore, the value of population standard deviation is known. Hence, we shall use Z-test. We have chosen the value of probability type I error, , as 0.01. 10 = 50 2.326 . n n Hence, critical value of sample mean, X , is 0 z0.01 We want the probability of type II error, when = 55, to be 0.3. 10 . If = 55, then X ~ Normal 55, n 10 to be 0.3. n Suppose we want area under the normal curve to the left of 50 2.326 10-13 z0.3 = approximately 0.525. 10 10 10 55 z0.3 55 0.525 . n n n Hence, we want 50 2.326 This gives us, 2.326 0.52510 n 55 50 5 , or 2.85110 n 32.49 . 5 So, for = 0.01, and 0.3 when = 55, the sample size, n, should be at least 33. 2 49. Let the population mean of waiting times at local Farmer Jack’s be minutes. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 8.0 H1 : < 8.0 This is a lower-tailed test. We have selected = 0.05. X 0 X 8 . Since the population S n S 24 distribution is approximately normal, the distribution of the test statistic, when = 8, is We shall use as test statistic T approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n – 1) = 23. Thus, this is a lower-tailed ttest. For df = 23, t = t0.05 = 1.714. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is less than -t0.05 = -1.714. The computed t-value is t 7.5 8 -0.77. 3.2 24 Since the computed t-value (= -0.77) is greater than –1.714, we conclude that we do not have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the population mean of waiting times at local Farmer Jack’s is less than the national average of 8.0 minutes. 51. Let the mean fare to fly from Halifax to Toronto be . Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 367 H1 : > 367 This is an upper-tailed test. We have selected = 0.01. X 0 X 367 . S / n S / 13 We shall use as test statistic, T = The population distribution is approximately normal. Hence, for = 367, the distribution of the test statistic is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n - 1) = 12. So, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 12, t = t0.01 =2.681. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than 2.681. 10-14 For the given sample data, x s 421 386 13 381 388.31 (421 388.31) 2 (381 388.31) 2 12 22.46. 388.31 367 3.421. 22.46 / 13 The computed t-value is t Since the computed t-value (=3.421) is greater than 2.681, we have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that the mean fare has increased. The P-value = P(T > 3.421). From the t-table, we see that the P-value is between 0.005 and 0.0005. (Using Minitab, we get the P-value equal to 0.003.) 53. Let p the fraction of accounts that are in arrears for more than 3 months. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : p 0.6 H1 : p > 0.6 This is an upper-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.01. pˆ p0 pˆ 0.6 . ( p )(1 p ) / n 0 0 (0.6)(0.4) / 200 We shall use as test statistic n p0= (200)(0.6) > 5 and n (1- p0) = (200)(0.4) > 5. Hence, the sample size is large enough for normal approximation. We shall apply an upper-tailed Z-test. z = z0.01 = approximately 2.326. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is greater than 2.326. pˆ 140 0.7. 200 The computed z-value is z = 0.7-0.6 0.6 0.4 = 2.89. 200 Since the computed z-value (= 2.89) is greater than 2.326, we conclude that we have sufficient evidence, at = 0.01, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that more than 60 percent of the accounts are in arrears for more than 3 months. 55. Let p the fraction of persons, who wanted the agency to plan a vacation for them, who wanted to go to Europe. Then, the null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : p 0.44 H1 : p > 0.44 This is an upper-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. 10-15 pˆ p0 pˆ 0.44 . ( p )(1 p ) / n 0 0 (0.44)(0.56) /1000 We shall use as test statistic n p0 = (1000)(0.44) > 5 and n (1- p0) = (1000)(0.56) > 5. Hence, the sample size is large enough for normal approximation. This is an upper-tailed Z-test. z = z0.05 = 1.645. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed z-value is greater than 1.645. pˆ 480 0.48. 1000 The computed z-value is z = 0.48-0.44 0.44 0.56 1000 = 2.55. Since the computed z-value (= 2.55) is greater than 1.645, we conclude that we have sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0 in favour of H1, that is, to infer that there has been an upward shift in the percentage of persons who want to go to Europe. 57. The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : 1483949 H1 : > 1483949 This is an upper-tailed test. We have chosen = 0.05. X 0 X 1483949 . Since the population S n S 20 distribution is approximately normal, when = 1483949, the distribution of the test We shall use as test statistic T statistic is approximately student’s t-distribution with df = (n – 1) = 19. Thus, this is an upper-tailed t-test. For df = 19, t = t0.05 = 1.725. Our decision rule is: reject H0 in favour of H1 if the computed t-value is greater than 1.725. Select a random sample of size 20, compute x , s and t x - 1483949 s 20 If t > 1.729, conclude that there is sufficient evidence, at = 0.05, to reject H0. Else, conclude that there is insufficient evidence to reject H0. Answer will vary according to the sample chosen. 59. The null and the alternative hypotheses are: H0 : = 18.6 H1 : 18.6 Since the population distribution is approximately normal and the population standard deviation is unknown, we shall use two-tailed t-test. The Megastat output is given below. 10-16 Hypothesis Test: Mean vs. Hypothesized Value 34.600000 hypothesized value 38.199000 mean BCE 4.523419 std. dev. 1.011467 std. error 20 n 19 df 3.56 t .0021 p-value (two-tailed) We see from computer output that P-value is 0.0021. Hence, our conclusion would be “we have sufficient evidence to reject H0” if the selected value is greater than 0.0021. Since the given value = 0.05 > 0.0021, we reject H0, that is we infer that the mean value of the end of the week prices of the BCE stock during the year 2000 was different from 18.6. 10-17