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WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
PANEL OF EXPERTS ON POLAR OBSERVATIONS,
RESEARCH AND SERVICES
Fourth session
EC-PORS-4/INF.18
Submitted by: Lars-Otto Reiersen
Lanzhou, China, 13-15 March 2013
Date: 24.II.2013
AGENDA ITEM: 4
ARCTIC MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAMME (AMAP)
SUMMARY
ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED:
This document provides a summary on AMAP’s current activities.
DECISIONS/ACTIONS REQUIRED:
1. The Panel is invited to comment on the AMAP activities from a WMO perspective.
2. The Panel is invited to discuss the best means of ensuring continuing co-operation
between WMO/PORS and AMAP. In the draft AMAP Work Plan for 2013-15, AMAP
plans to work with WMO and contribute to the proposal for an International Polar
Initiative.
3. The Panel is invited to note and comment upon AMAP’s plans for a project on
‘Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic’ (AACA). The project deals with climate
scenarios and how to develop strategies to meet user needs to analyze consequences
that may occur in relation to combined effects on the Arctic ecosystems and on social
and economic development (section 3).
REFERENCES:
www.amap.no
EC-PORS-IV/INF.18, p. 2
ARCTIC MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAMME (AMAP)
Background
AMAP is a working group of the Arctic Council with the mandate to monitor and assess the
status of the Arctic region with respect to pollution and climate change issues by documenting
the levels and trends, pathways and processes, and effects on ecosystems and humans, and to
propose actions to reduce associated threats for consideration by governments. AMAP
produces sound science-based, policy-relevant assessments and public outreach products to
inform policy and decision-making processes.
The AMAP Work Plan 2013-15
The AMAP Work Plan for the period 2013-15 is in the drafting phase, and will be approved by
the Arctic Council’s Ministerial Meeting in 2013. The plan will tentatively cover the following
activities.
Trends and Effects Monitoring Program
As part of its ongoing work, AMAP will continue to coordinate Arctic monitoring and research
activities (based largely on national programs) to provide the information necessary for
assessment of relevant issues:

spatial and temporal trends in levels of contaminants in Arctic ecosystems including
humans;

biological/ecological effects of contaminants and associated trends, including human
health effects;

climate change (including ocean acidification, Short Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) and
cryosphere);

effects of climate variability and change;

improved predictive capacity through increased observations,
understanding of processes governing changes in the Arctic;

human and ecosystem health effects;

combined effects of contaminants, climate change and other stressors, including effects
on humans.
research
and
Ongoing and Planned Assessments

AMAP will lead the Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic (AACA), Section C
component (see next section)

The AMAP SLCF Expert Group will update its assessment to include scientific data and
information on black carbon and tropospheric ozone from sources outside of the Arctic

A second AMAP SLCF Expert Group on methane will conduct a scientific review.

The AMAP Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Expert Group will continue its work on
safety guidelines.
EC-PORS-IV/INF.18, p. 3

As part of its ongoing work, AMAP will determine the need for follow-up activities and
products in relation to its previous work and develop plans for such activities as needed.
Follow-up activities and products may be done for the Oil and Gas Assessment (OGA),
Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA), Arctic Ocean Acidification
(AOA), and mercury assessments. Updating of assessments for other AMAP relevant
issues (Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), radioactivity, human health, contaminant
transport and fate, etc.) will also be carried out.

AMAP will continue to evaluate emerging ‘Issues of Concern’ relating to pollution and
climate change and their effects on Arctic ecosystems and human populations.
Cooperation with Intergovernmental and International organizations
AMAP will continue to cooperate with

UNEP-Chemicals on activities connected with the UNEP global mercury process.

UNEP on activities connected with the Stockholm Convention including follow-up to the
joint UNEP/AMAP technical report on Climate change and POPs: Predicting the
Impacts.

UN ECE in relation to relevant LRTAP activities.

WMO and contribute to the proposal for an International Polar Initiative.

UNFCCC IPCC, and the SWIPA assessment results will contribute to IPCC’s next
assessment on Global Climate Change in 2013-14.
Projects and Joint Studies
The AMAP Secretariat will continue its leading role in the projects on

Combined Effects of Contaminants and Climate Change in cooperation with AMAP
experts, and funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers and the Nordic countries.

ArcRisk in cooperation with AMAP experts, and funded by EU (FP7) and Arctic
Countries.

AMAP including Expert Groups such as the Climate Expert Group (CEG), the Human
Health Assessment Group (HHAG), and the AMAP Secretariat will participate in the
further development and implementation of special projects in Russia, including the
project on the Lena and other Russian Arctic rivers under the GEF-Russian Federation
Partnership, and follow-up of the Persistent Toxic Substances (PTS) project.
Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic (AACA)
Summary
The AACA project deals with climate scenarios and how to develop strategies to meet user
needs to analyze consequences that may occur in relation to combined effects on the Arctic
ecosystems and on social and economic development.
In the AACA part C project there has been arranged one workshop on decadal and centennial
climate scenarios. The next workshop in spring 2013 will broaden the conclusions from the first
workshop on the near term and the long term projections on increased temperature and ice-
EC-PORS-IV/INF.18, p. 4
melting to include consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystems, biodiversity, human
health, transport, socio-economic adaptations because of climate change. The results from the
workshop will be used in projects 2013-2015 on the abovementioned topics to look at
consequences for three Arctic geographical areas; Barents Sea, Davis Strait and
Bering/Chukchi/Beaufort Sea.
Details
AACA is divided into part A, B and C.
Part A is an overview of existing assessment products the last ten year. AMAP has delivered
information and conclusions from 29 assessments. Part A will be reported to the Arctic council
ministerial meeting in May 2013.
AACA Part B is to identify local/national/regional adaptation efforts relevant with a view to
determining best practices and is led by Canada and Russia. Also part B will be reported out by
the May 2013 Ministerial meeting. AMAP will use the outcome of these two parts in the planning
of part C.
AACA Part C (AACA-C) was approved by the Arctic Council in May 2012 as an Arctic Council
assessment and is led by AMAP.
AACA-C consists of three different phases:
- Phase 1: Gap analysis and climate change follow-up. The gap analysis was reported to
AMAP working group meeting in October 2012.
- Phase 2: Identification of additional stressors and fill the gaps identified in the gap
analysis. This phase will be delivered late 2015.
- Phase 3: The integrated assessment. The different projects in phase 2 will be integrated
in one common assessment 2015-2016 and be reported to the Arctic council Ministerial
Meeting in 2017.
Phase 1a - Gap analysis
A review of all relevant AMAP assessments conducted the last 10 years has been made. A
report identified knowledge gaps that could be filled, but not how to fill them.
Many of the identified gaps are quite work extensive projects and are primarily research projects
(e.g. combined effects of contaminants and climate change) may require extensive extra
funding, e.g. increased annual monitoring, and are therefore long-term projects not possible to
finalize within the time frame for AACA-C.
The gap filling projects should be performed as part of Phase 2 in the period 2013-2015
securing that the conclusions and information can be used in the overall report for 2017.
Phase 1b – Climate change follow-up/workshops
This phase consists of two workshops.
1st workshop, Seattle 16-18 October 2012
Theme: Clarify better the climate scenarios for the Arctic over the next 100 years, and to
determine the extent to which the existing Global Climate Models (CMIP5) represent the Arctic
in an acceptable way and identify improvements needed.
EC-PORS-IV/INF.18, p. 5
2nd workshop, St. Petersburg, 22-24 April 2013
Theme: Develop strategies to meet user needs to analyze consequences that may occur in
relation to combined effects on the Arctic ecosystems and on social and economic
development.
The polar climate change modeling community that met in Seattle is prepared to contribute to
the planned Arctic climate change impact assessment and is prepared to do extra calculations
and data analysis once the plans are more ready. Such work could for instance be dynamical or
statistical downscaling of global climate change projection calculations to sub regions/study
areas within the Arctic.
For the St. Petersburg workshop we will need to bring in experts from modeling/scenario
communities such as: Ecosystem modeling, Economic modeling and Socio-economic modeling.
The results from the first workshop will be used as background for agenda and questions to
participants/break-out groups at this workshop.
Phase 2 – Identification of additional stressors/fill knowledge gaps (2013-2015)
Based on the results from Phase 1, Phase 2 will fill priority gaps and produce documentation
with the aim to feed highly relevant results and information into the integrated assessment,
Phase 3.
With the climate scenarios as background, the following projects are proposed to fill knowledge
gaps in phase 2:
 Industrialization/mining/energy
 Fisheries
 Tourism
 Integrity of ecosystem services
 Transportation and shipping
 Water availability and quality
Three regions have been proposed in a mail circulated in mid-December (the Barents region,
the Davis Strait and the Bering/Chukchi/Beaufort Sea). These regions might be altered.
There might be different priority focus for the abovementioned topics in each of the geographical
areas.
Phase3 – the integrated assessment (2013-2017)
The results from the projects in Phase 2 will be used and included in the integrated assessment.
Also the results from AACA-part A and part B will be included in AACA-C Phase 3.