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Changing Face of the Himalayas Video Unit 1 – Resource Sheet The extensive flooding of Bangladesh in September 1988, which is depicted in Video Unit One, killed over 2000 people, made 30 million more homeless and caused US$1billion worth of damage. Its causes became the subject of fierce debate amongst geographers. There are two main schools of thought. First Theory – Deforestation The most widely held theory is that severe flooding in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is caused directly by increasing deforestation in the Himalayas. This orthodox view, which has been accepted and promoted by the World bank, governments, international aid agencies, environmentalists and the media claims that the mountain people of Nepal, and other Himalayan areas, have been the main agents responsible for the disastrous changes taking place in the region. The mountain population increased rapidly after malaria was brought under control during the 1950s. The doubling of Nepal’s population to 15 million since that time has meant that forests are cleared to provide firewood and land for growing food. The ground exposed in this way is then prone to rapid erosion, which leads to silting and increased flooding downstream in Bangladesh. This river beds are raised and catastrophic floods follow. Meanwhile, the loss of vegetation causes changes in climate which bring the threat of drought. All of this prompted the Sunday Times to claim in April 1988: “At the present rate of cutting, the Himalayas will be bald in 25 years, topsoil will have disappeared, and the climatic effects threaten to turn the fertile plain into a new Sahel – the drought-stricken region off central Africa.” Most reports on Bangladesh have accepted this deforestation, or “Doomsday” analysis. It is a catastrophe theory which dovetails neatly with the concern of Western countries about the environment. It also appeals to those who are worried about over-population, always stronger when the races “breeding too fast” do not have a white skin, are poor and one day may seek to migrate to the West. Second Theory – Geological Instability According to many Himalayan geographers, however, this theory is not borne out by the facts. At the United Nations conference on the Himalaya-Ganges problem help in September 1988, they challenged it and presented and alternative explanation: that the data on the forest areas of Nepal are unreliable and that there should be more forest cover now than there was a century ago. The Director of the Australia-Nepal Forestry Project suggests that 50% of Nepal is still covered in forest and that the forests are advancing. In some regions the forest area on private land is three to ten times greater thank it was two decades ago. Chitwan National Park He indicates that deforestation was far worse in the nineteenth century and peaked at the turn of the century. What is now the forested Chitwan National Park was open pasture a century ago. Even if there is deforestation, its responsibility for floods in the Ganges and Brahmaputra would be infinitesimally small in comparison with the natural consequences of monsoon rain and earth movements in one of the world’s most geologically unstable regions. After examining the statistical evidence on the rate at which wood was being cut down and consumed in Nepal provided by a number of recent studies, the British anthropologist, Michael Thompson, discovered a vast range of estimates. The highest was 67 times larger than the lowest! Thompson argued that mountainous Nepal is notoriously varied and difficult to study. Nevertheless, this had not deterred dozens of scientists from discovering what was happening on one hill-top or in one valley and extrapolating the results to cover the whole country. But geographers do agree on one point, the Himalayas are a diverse and complex region. Deforestation can cause problems, even though, in many places, trees are replaced by thick elephant grass or well-made agricultural forests. They also accept that forests could be advancing in one area while falling back in another. But what is impossible to argue, they say, is that the loss of trees can explain the floods along the Ganges and Brahmaputra. The rivers of Bangladesh have always flooded: the plain of the Ganges has silt which is 2000m deep in places the result of the floods of the past few million years the ferocious movements in the plates of the earth’s crust far outweigh human activity in the region the Himalayas are the highest, steepest and fastest-rising mountain range in the world. As they push up, great quantities of rocks and earth fall away, the torrents flow faster dragging earth from river banks and producing more silt. All theories must be tested against the available evidence. Catastrophe theories, geographers argue, are accepted at our peril!