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2011 Lecture Notes `Statistical Data Analysis`
2011 Lecture Notes `Statistical Data Analysis`

PDF
PDF

... In safety-critical applications, a system must not only be highly reliable, but that reliability must be certifiable in some way. For example, the Federal Aviation Administration (faa) requires designers of civil aircraft to demonstrate that their products will have no more than 10−9 catastrophic fa ...


... When adding, why is it possible for the sum to be smaller than the initial quantity? How do you determine whether to move in the positive or negative direction from an initial quantity when adding? ...
Section 4.2 Solutions: 1) In her wallet, Anne Kelly has 14 bills
Section 4.2 Solutions: 1) In her wallet, Anne Kelly has 14 bills

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Rare-event Probability Estimation with Conditional Monte Carlo

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Random variables - Statistics at University of Puget Sound

... first though that a variable cannot be both numerical and categorical because of the requirement that the values that a categorical variable can take on do not make sense to perform arithmetic with, while the values of a numerical variable must make sense to perform arithmetic with. E XAMPLE 1.1.9 T ...
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... niques [35]. Apart from probabilistic techniques, we also discuss some deterministic approaches to the problem, and the principles that govern them. The use of probabilistic models also implies that a variety of efficient algorithms are available to us for inference. For example, the forward algori ...
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Introduction to Statistics and Machine Learning

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Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis

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Participant Handout: Module Focus Session: Algebra II

... Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event. ...
From Relational Statistics to Degrees of Belief
From Relational Statistics to Degrees of Belief

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An evaluation of the sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance

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... within the bounding interval the causal effect of interest is likely to be. Some may believe that all values within the interval are equally likely but, as we will see later, such a belief will often be inconsistent with reasonable beliefs about the nature of the unmeasured confounding. Second, the ...
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... Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ...
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Threshold Effects in Parameter Estimation from Compressed Data

... mean squared error (MSE) departs sharply from the CramérRao bound at low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Performance breakdown may happen when either the sample size or SNR falls below a certain threshold [1]. The main reason for this threshold effect is that in low SNR or sample size regimes, paramet ...
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The Theory of Fuzzy Sets: Beliefs and Realities

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... experiment. For example, it could be a single toss of a coin, or three tosses, or an infinite sequence of tosses. However, it is important to note that in our formulation of a probabilistic model, there is only one experiment. So, three tosses of a coin constitute a single experiment, rather than th ...
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... probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. ............................... 51 7.SP.6 – Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chan ...
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... discuss here, is to be found in Royall (1997) and Pawitan (2001). As Pawitan (2001, p. 15) states: The distinguishing view is that inference is possible directly from the likelihood function; this is neither Bayesian nor frequentist, and in fact both schools would reject such a view as they allow on ...
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... answer: Suppose a < x1 < x2 < b. We need to show f (x1 ) < f (x2 ). MVT (with x1 in place of a) ⇒ f (x2 ) = f (x1 ) + f 0 (c)(x2 − x1 ) for some x1 < c < x 2 . Since f 0 (c) and x2 − x1 are both positive this shows f (x2 ) > f (x1 ). 3. Show if f 0 (x) = 0 on [a, b] then f is constant. answer: MVT ⇒ ...
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Simplified Variance Estimation for Three

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Probability

Probability is the measure of the likeliness that an event will occur. Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty). The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur. A simple example is the toss of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the two outcomes are equally probable, the probability of ""heads"" equals the probability of ""tails"", so the probability is 1/2 (or 50%) chance of either ""heads"" or ""tails"".These concepts have been given an axiomatic mathematical formalization in probability theory (see probability axioms), which is used widely in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science (in particular physics), artificial intelligence/machine learning, computer science, game theory, and philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events. Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities of complex systems.
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