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The low inflation
The low inflation

... the most important question for monetary policy right now. Over the past year, I have emphasised the importance of ensuring that inflation does not get stuck far below the target of two per cent and said that monetary policy therefore needs to focus on avoiding such a situation. Consequently, I ente ...
Fiscal consolidation during a depression
Fiscal consolidation during a depression

... may be different from that in normal times. We contrast three scenarios: the consolidation plan implemented during a depression; the same plan, but with implementation delayed for three years when the economy has recovered; and no consolidation at all. The modelling confirms that doing nothing was n ...
Inflation
Inflation

... Inflation and deflation are measured using average prices. However it is likely that prices of some items rise while others fall or remain the same. Sometimes we compare prices by using relative prices. The relative price is the price of one good in comparison with the price of other goods. Since in ...
Interest Rates, Unemployment and Inflation
Interest Rates, Unemployment and Inflation

... the Bank of Canada had begun to set as early as in 1988. It can also be argued that, in contrast, fiscal policy had been on the right course. The structural fiscal balance had been improving every year after 1985, and as of 1989 the debt-to-GDP ratio had been stabilized. The comparison with US event ...
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System IFDP 1058
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System IFDP 1058

... This dataset begins in the late 1980s and covers virtually every country in the world. The quality of the data varies across time as the set of reporting dealers has evolved; for all practical purposes, the dataset begins in the early 1990s. For example, consider a shipment bound for Russia via Germ ...
The boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984
The boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984

... observational units: Finland, Sweden and the international sample. Lastly, using these charts we are finally able to analyze differences and similarities between Finland, Sweden and the international average. The charts allow us to consider a number of issues such as to what extent the Finnish and S ...
PDF
PDF

... variables grow at constant (possibly zero) rates. Furthermore, its transition properties, which were unclear in this original paper, have been described in a number of subsequent studies on this topic. Important contributions in this line of research include Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1992), Caball ...
PDF
PDF

... Unless, of course, financial stability concern ranks higher on the PBC agenda. A too-low interest rate could fuel unsustainable shadow banking expansion, excess leverage and asset price booms. China has experienced a massive credit binge since 2007, with total credit to the non-financial private sec ...
GettinG the Balance riGht: transitioninG out of sustained
GettinG the Balance riGht: transitioninG out of sustained

... followed by a shift in export composition toward higher-value-added goods—that is, by a move up the export quality ladder.3 Third, total employment rose slightly during reversals, as gains in nontradables employment more than offset employment losses in the tradables sector. Finally, there were some ...
Inflation Cycles
Inflation Cycles

... Criticisms and Defence of RBC Theory Defenders of RBC theory claim that 1. RBC theory explains the macroeconomic facts about business cycles and is consistent with the facts about economic growth. RBC theory is a single theory that explains both growth and cycles. 2. RBC theory is consistent with a ...
Inflation Cycles
Inflation Cycles

... Criticisms and Defence of RBC Theory Defenders of RBC theory claim that 1. RBC theory explains the macroeconomic facts about business cycles and is consistent with the facts about economic growth. RBC theory is a single theory that explains both growth and cycles. 2. RBC theory is consistent with a ...
Problem Session-2
Problem Session-2

... In chapter problems at the end of Chapter 3 and 5, we examined the paradox of saving in the short run, under different assumptions about the response of investment to output and the interest rate. Here we consider the issue one last time in the context of the AS-AD model. Suppose the economy begins ...
A Neo-Keynedan Vie~ of Monetary Policy
A Neo-Keynedan Vie~ of Monetary Policy

... tax rates constant, would affect the economy by three different routes. First, there would be a direct expansionary income effect resulting from the purchase of output by the government. Second, there would be an expansionary wealth effect as the private sector, experiencing an increment to its weal ...
Equation (6.2) gives so
Equation (6.2) gives so

... ∂M Lr (1 − C ′ − IY ) I r + LY If the marginal propensity to consume C ′ increases, then each round of the expenditure multiplier process induces more extra aggregate demand and therefore an expansionary monetary policy will increase equilibrium output by more: the first term in the denominator beco ...
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the meetings of the
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the meetings of the

... environment may have become more stable. Changes in the structure of the economy that increased its resilience to shocks or reductions in the variance of the shocks themselves would improve the volatility tradeoff faced by policymakers. In Figure 1, we can imagine now that the true Taylor curve in t ...
Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?
Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?

... total monetary aggregates; for example, in 2001, currency was only about 15 % of euro area M1 and only 2 % of total financial assets of the non-financial sector. It seems doubtful that such a small aggregate can have a significant impact on the economy. The judgement would be different, however, if ...
Chapter 1
Chapter 1

... savings and investment move together, verifying the Feldstein Horioka 1980 puzzle. During 1970-1997, the difference between Sp and Ip is positive. Private saving has followed a downward trend since 1988. Falling private savings and negative public savings, have put a downward pressure on the CA bala ...
Optimum Currency Area Theory and EMU
Optimum Currency Area Theory and EMU

... and notes introduced in 2002. A prime concern in advance of its creation was whether 11 different countries which controlled their own monetary policies, fiscal policies and currency could be somehow brought together as one currency area. Various authors pointed to flaws in the Eurozone’s design inc ...
the new keynesian framework for a small open economy with
the new keynesian framework for a small open economy with

... In order to examine potential instabilities and/or breaks in the system, we start the analysis with a GMM estimation in order to have a benchmark model for comparing structural breaks results. Then, we apply two types of methodologies which allow us to estimate simultaneously the vector of parameter ...
Size, Openness, and Macroeconomic Interdependence
Size, Openness, and Macroeconomic Interdependence

... Our model reduces to a standard closed economy textbook macroeconomic model for N = 1. Novelty comes solely from the country dimension. In our set up, the world consists of N countries indexed by i ∈ {1, 2, ..., N } where country 1 is chosen as a numeraire (without the loss of generality). Each coun ...
PDF Download
PDF Download

... the risk to the international economy. Furthermore, it should ease the pressure on the single European currency. Thus there is no reason to panic. ...
World in 2050
World in 2050

... measures, although it should be stressed that this assumes that they continue to follow broadly growth-friendly policies. In this sense, the projections are of potential future GDP if such policies are followed, rather than unconditional predictions of what will actually happen, bearing in mind that ...
Balanced Growth - Yale Economics
Balanced Growth - Yale Economics

... have less capital to work with), or there is a gap in total factor productivity (A is lower in underdeveloped countries than in developed countries). ...
Risks and Scenarios - Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2014
Risks and Scenarios - Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2014

... countries that have become accustomed to favourable global lending conditions in recent years have increased. Both the monetary policy responses (that are likely to magnify the higher costs of capital) and the higher capital cost itself, will act to constrain growth in emerging economies. The most f ...
World in 2050
World in 2050

... measures, although it should be stressed that this assumes that they continue to follow broadly growth-friendly policies. In this sense, the projections are of potential future GDP if such policies are followed, rather than unconditional predictions of what will actually happen, bearing in mind that ...
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Fear of floating

Fear of floating refers to situations where a country prefers a smoother exchange rate to a floating exchange rate regime. This is more relevant in emerging economies, especially when they suffered from financial crisis in last two decades. In foreign exchange markets of the emerging market economies, there is evidence showing that countries who claim they are floating their currency, are actually reluctant to let the nominal exchange rate fluctuate in response to macroeconomic shocks. In the literature, this is first convincingly documented by Calvo and Reinhart with “fear of floating” as the title of one of their papers in 2000. Since then, this widespread phenomenon of reluctance to adjust exchange rates in emerging markets is usually called “fear of floating”. Most of the studies on “fear of floating” are closely related to literature on costs and benefits of different exchange rate regimes.
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