slides - John L. Pollock

... number of simple propositions, there is a completely intractable number of logically independent probabilities. » Given just 300 simple propositions, there will be 2300 logically independent probabilities. » 2300 is approximately equal to 1090. » Recent estimates of the number of elementary particle ...

... number of simple propositions, there is a completely intractable number of logically independent probabilities. » Given just 300 simple propositions, there will be 2300 logically independent probabilities. » 2300 is approximately equal to 1090. » Recent estimates of the number of elementary particle ...

Notes on Bayesian Confirmation Theory

... psychologically real. The formal apparatus comes very easily. Credences are asserted to be, as the term subjective probability suggests, a kind of probability. That is, they are real numbers between zero and one, with a credence of one for a theory meaning that the scientist is practically certain t ...

... psychologically real. The formal apparatus comes very easily. Credences are asserted to be, as the term subjective probability suggests, a kind of probability. That is, they are real numbers between zero and one, with a credence of one for a theory meaning that the scientist is practically certain t ...

conditional probability - ANU School of Philosophy

... is 1/6; this is an unconditional probability. But the probability that it lands with ‘5’ showing up, given that it lands with an odd number showing up, is 1/3; this is a conditional probability. In general, conditional probability is probability given some body of evidence or information, probabilit ...

... is 1/6; this is an unconditional probability. But the probability that it lands with ‘5’ showing up, given that it lands with an odd number showing up, is 1/3; this is a conditional probability. In general, conditional probability is probability given some body of evidence or information, probabilit ...

Slides - Rutgers Statistics

... • There are two ways in which an agent’s space could fail to be regular: – 1) Her probability function assigns zero to some member of F (other than the empty set). Then her second and third grades come apart for this proposition. – 2) Her probability function fails to assign anything to some subset ...

... • There are two ways in which an agent’s space could fail to be regular: – 1) Her probability function assigns zero to some member of F (other than the empty set). Then her second and third grades come apart for this proposition. – 2) Her probability function fails to assign anything to some subset ...

Probability

... 17. A parking lot has seventy parking spaces numbered from 1 to 70. There are no cars in the parking lot when Jillian pulls in and randomly parks. What is the probability that the number on the parking space where she parks is greater than or equal to 30? ...

... 17. A parking lot has seventy parking spaces numbered from 1 to 70. There are no cars in the parking lot when Jillian pulls in and randomly parks. What is the probability that the number on the parking space where she parks is greater than or equal to 30? ...

Probability and Forensic Science

... Given the use to which our assessment is being Given the use to which our assessment is being put, it is desirable that our assessment is not wholly based on intuition wholly based on intuition Is there a way in which we can do this? ...

... Given the use to which our assessment is being Given the use to which our assessment is being put, it is desirable that our assessment is not wholly based on intuition wholly based on intuition Is there a way in which we can do this? ...

Declarations of Independence

... have zero probability, the converse is not true—even in finite spaces. For instance, rational agents (who may have credences over finite spaces) may—and arguably must4—have irregular probability functions, and thus assign probability 0 to non-trivial propositions. Probability theory and statistics a ...

... have zero probability, the converse is not true—even in finite spaces. For instance, rational agents (who may have credences over finite spaces) may—and arguably must4—have irregular probability functions, and thus assign probability 0 to non-trivial propositions. Probability theory and statistics a ...

Confirmation Theory

... Some contemporary writers appear to believe that the inductive probability of a proposition is some person’s degree of belief in the proposition. Degree of belief is also called subjective probability, so on this view, inductive probability is the same as subjective probability. However, this is not ...

... Some contemporary writers appear to believe that the inductive probability of a proposition is some person’s degree of belief in the proposition. Degree of belief is also called subjective probability, so on this view, inductive probability is the same as subjective probability. However, this is not ...

Probabilistic thinking and probability literacy in the context of risk

... much less convincing. In such a single case, with chance, everything is possible. However, once people have decided about their approach and strategy, and the outcome is known to them, they start to re-interpret the course of action. Depending on their character, some claim that whatever they do, t ...

... much less convincing. In such a single case, with chance, everything is possible. However, once people have decided about their approach and strategy, and the outcome is known to them, they start to re-interpret the course of action. Depending on their character, some claim that whatever they do, t ...

Empirical Interpretations of Probability

... choose, there exists a process of measurement such that the result of applying that process of measurement to the table will yield a result that will (probably) differ from four by less than 6. It does not seem that the verification or falsification of assertions of probability are any more problema ...

... choose, there exists a process of measurement such that the result of applying that process of measurement to the table will yield a result that will (probably) differ from four by less than 6. It does not seem that the verification or falsification of assertions of probability are any more problema ...

How bad is a 10% chance of losing a toe?

... 15% of all the responses to the prevention question were at the maximum of 5. The raw badness judgments do not correspond directly to EU. If they did, the judgments for probabilities of .001, .01, .1, and 1 would differ by a factor of 10. Although the mean ratio of .01 to .001 is 7.3, the other rati ...

... 15% of all the responses to the prevention question were at the maximum of 5. The raw badness judgments do not correspond directly to EU. If they did, the judgments for probabilities of .001, .01, .1, and 1 would differ by a factor of 10. Although the mean ratio of .01 to .001 is 7.3, the other rati ...