Distances between probability measures and coefficients of

... If conditioned on non-absorption, the conditional distributions converge to a unique limit distribution. Crossman and kulj (2009) generalise this convegence result to imprecise probabilities. kulj ...

... If conditioned on non-absorption, the conditional distributions converge to a unique limit distribution. Crossman and kulj (2009) generalise this convegence result to imprecise probabilities. kulj ...

Logical Foundations of Induction

... of argument in this book, the translator’s efforts are commendable. Still, at places, one finds the translation to be lacking. At other times, there are typos. We have tried to correct them (in red marks) in the text as much as possible. (The words in plain red are typos we were certain about, hence ...

... of argument in this book, the translator’s efforts are commendable. Still, at places, one finds the translation to be lacking. At other times, there are typos. We have tried to correct them (in red marks) in the text as much as possible. (The words in plain red are typos we were certain about, hence ...

Probabilistic Approach to Inverse Problems

... predict the outcome of possible experiments. In classical physics this problem has a unique solution. For instance, given a seismic model of the whole Earth (elastic constants, attenuation, etc. at every point inside the Earth) and given a model of a seismic source, we can use current seismological ...

... predict the outcome of possible experiments. In classical physics this problem has a unique solution. For instance, given a seismic model of the whole Earth (elastic constants, attenuation, etc. at every point inside the Earth) and given a model of a seismic source, we can use current seismological ...

Physics and chance

... common identical velocity, would be proportional to temperature. Yet the caloric theory remained dominant throughout the eighteenth century. The unfortunate indifference of the scientific community to Bernoulli's work was compounded by the dismaying tragi-comedy of Herepath and Waterston in the nine ...

... common identical velocity, would be proportional to temperature. Yet the caloric theory remained dominant throughout the eighteenth century. The unfortunate indifference of the scientific community to Bernoulli's work was compounded by the dismaying tragi-comedy of Herepath and Waterston in the nine ...

Symmetry and Probability - Academic Commons

... An agent might assign subjective probabilities to any factual proposition ...

... An agent might assign subjective probabilities to any factual proposition ...

1 Studies in the History of Statistics and Probability Collected

... former applied to certain phenomena universally or at least in general, the latter’s action was restricted in space and/or time. Such a distinction has been known in natural sciences, for example in gravimetry: pendulum observations clearly showed that there existed local gravimetric anomalies, so w ...

... former applied to certain phenomena universally or at least in general, the latter’s action was restricted in space and/or time. Such a distinction has been known in natural sciences, for example in gravimetry: pendulum observations clearly showed that there existed local gravimetric anomalies, so w ...

slides - John L. Pollock

... • I will argue that, on a certain conception of probability, there are mathematically derivable second-order probabilities to the effect that various inferences about first-order probabilities, although not deductively valid, will nonetheless produce correct conclusions with probability 1, and this ...

... • I will argue that, on a certain conception of probability, there are mathematically derivable second-order probabilities to the effect that various inferences about first-order probabilities, although not deductively valid, will nonetheless produce correct conclusions with probability 1, and this ...

Monograf´ıas - QUANTIL :::::: matemáticas aplicadas

... models to a multiple expert setting. The literature on multiple expert testing is diverse regarding manipulability results. The presence of multiple theories raises the possibility that, under a certain test, a theory be rejected if it is ‘outperformed’ by another theory. Thus, giving the tester the ...

... models to a multiple expert setting. The literature on multiple expert testing is diverse regarding manipulability results. The presence of multiple theories raises the possibility that, under a certain test, a theory be rejected if it is ‘outperformed’ by another theory. Thus, giving the tester the ...

Comparative Value and the Weight of Reasons

... their creations, which they may view as surviving past their death, and hence transcending their welfare. In sum, there are a wide variety of goals and values, both self-interested and other-regarding, that people may value above their own welfare. Now it may be that utilitarianism, with utility int ...

... their creations, which they may view as surviving past their death, and hence transcending their welfare. In sum, there are a wide variety of goals and values, both self-interested and other-regarding, that people may value above their own welfare. Now it may be that utilitarianism, with utility int ...

Chap 4 from Ross

... You should carefully check the matrix P, and make sure you understand how it was obtained. ...

... You should carefully check the matrix P, and make sure you understand how it was obtained. ...

Misspecified Recovery Jaroslav Boroviˇcka Lars Peter Hansen Jos´e A. Scheinkman

... for positive numbers mi , i = 1, 2, ..., n and a real number η that is typically negative. The mi ’s need only be specified up to a scale factor and the resulting vector can be normalized conveniently. As we show below, this restriction helps us characterize long-term pricing implications. In both c ...

... for positive numbers mi , i = 1, 2, ..., n and a real number η that is typically negative. The mi ’s need only be specified up to a scale factor and the resulting vector can be normalized conveniently. As we show below, this restriction helps us characterize long-term pricing implications. In both c ...

Design and Implementation of Advanced Bayesian Networks with

... information might become a curse rather than a blessing, as the more information is available the more time is required to process it. In time critical situations, time is an expensive commodity not always affordable. For instance, consider a surgeon performing cardiac surgery. With all the new adva ...

... information might become a curse rather than a blessing, as the more information is available the more time is required to process it. In time critical situations, time is an expensive commodity not always affordable. For instance, consider a surgeon performing cardiac surgery. With all the new adva ...

pdf

... In this paper, we concentrate on two definitions of explanation, one due to Gärdenfors (1988) and the other to Pearl (1988), as representatives of the two approaches mentioned above. While, as we point out, there are significant problems with these definitions, we consider them because they have s ...

... In this paper, we concentrate on two definitions of explanation, one due to Gärdenfors (1988) and the other to Pearl (1988), as representatives of the two approaches mentioned above. While, as we point out, there are significant problems with these definitions, we consider them because they have s ...

INTERPRETING DNA EVIDENCE

... widespread use and acceptance of DNA evidence. A jury in Santa Monica found a prominent football player responsible for the wrongful death of his former wife and her friend, a New York state crime laboratory was able to identify the remains of all 230 people who perished in an airplane crash, and sc ...

... widespread use and acceptance of DNA evidence. A jury in Santa Monica found a prominent football player responsible for the wrongful death of his former wife and her friend, a New York state crime laboratory was able to identify the remains of all 230 people who perished in an airplane crash, and sc ...

John Tabak-Probability and Statistics_ The Science of Uncertainty

... One might think that the discovery of a new branch of mathematics means the solution of a new and difficult equation or the discovery of a new and exotic geometric shape. For probability, however, this is false. Many of the solutions to important problems early in the history of probability involved ...

... One might think that the discovery of a new branch of mathematics means the solution of a new and difficult equation or the discovery of a new and exotic geometric shape. For probability, however, this is false. Many of the solutions to important problems early in the history of probability involved ...

Title of slide - WebHome < PP/Public < RHUL Physics

... interest with, e.g., mean, median, standard deviation, etc. Although numerical values of answer here same as in frequentist case, interpretation is different (sometimes unimportant?) G. Cowan RHUL Physics ...

... interest with, e.g., mean, median, standard deviation, etc. Although numerical values of answer here same as in frequentist case, interpretation is different (sometimes unimportant?) G. Cowan RHUL Physics ...

On Finding Predictors for Arbitrary Families of Processes

... that predicts every µ ∈ C exists, then such a predictor can also be obtained as a weighted sum of countably many elements of C. This result can also be viewed as a justification of the Bayesian approach to sequence prediction: if there exists a predictor which predicts well every measure in the clas ...

... that predicts every µ ∈ C exists, then such a predictor can also be obtained as a weighted sum of countably many elements of C. This result can also be viewed as a justification of the Bayesian approach to sequence prediction: if there exists a predictor which predicts well every measure in the clas ...

Twenty-One Arguments Against Propensity Analyses of Probability

... probability,3 but it would be wrong to think that the only desideratum was to adequately explicate the scientific role of the concept. For the pre-theoretical concept placed a great many restrictions on the intuitions that governed the acceptability of the scientific use of the concept. The platitud ...

... probability,3 but it would be wrong to think that the only desideratum was to adequately explicate the scientific role of the concept. For the pre-theoretical concept placed a great many restrictions on the intuitions that governed the acceptability of the scientific use of the concept. The platitud ...

Probabilistic reasoning with answer sets

... ASP solvers. This matter is a subject of future work. In this paper we do not emphasize P-log inference algorithms even for programs with finite Herbrand domains, though this is also an obvious topic for future work. However, our prototype implementation of P-log, based on an answer set solver Smode ...

... ASP solvers. This matter is a subject of future work. In this paper we do not emphasize P-log inference algorithms even for programs with finite Herbrand domains, though this is also an obvious topic for future work. However, our prototype implementation of P-log, based on an answer set solver Smode ...

john maynard keynes and ludwig von mises on probability

... views on economic theory and public policy. This latter view will here be challenged. While it is not contended that any historical evidence points to any direct historical influence between the views on probability of these two authors, it will be argued that in some relevant respects Ludwig von Mi ...

... views on economic theory and public policy. This latter view will here be challenged. While it is not contended that any historical evidence points to any direct historical influence between the views on probability of these two authors, it will be argued that in some relevant respects Ludwig von Mi ...

- Philsci

... In Section 2, I discuss various proponents of a causal approach to probability from the 19th century as well as more recent developments in the tradition of the method of arbitrary functions. The latter are mainly due to Michael Strevens, Jacob Rosenthal, and Marshall Abrams, and are henceforth abbr ...

... In Section 2, I discuss various proponents of a causal approach to probability from the 19th century as well as more recent developments in the tradition of the method of arbitrary functions. The latter are mainly due to Michael Strevens, Jacob Rosenthal, and Marshall Abrams, and are henceforth abbr ...

A Poisoned Dart for Conditionals

... L is equivalent to L' = [0, ½) ½. This has the form ‘p or q’, where p = [0, ½) and q = ½. And C' = ¬[0, ½) ½ has the form ‘if not p, then q’. So the inference from L' to C' is an instance of ‘Or-to-If’. And the ‘Or-to-If’ inference pattern prima facie seems valid. It seems to schematize the Sher ...

... L is equivalent to L' = [0, ½) ½. This has the form ‘p or q’, where p = [0, ½) and q = ½. And C' = ¬[0, ½) ½ has the form ‘if not p, then q’. So the inference from L' to C' is an instance of ‘Or-to-If’. And the ‘Or-to-If’ inference pattern prima facie seems valid. It seems to schematize the Sher ...

Dissertations on Probability in Paris in the 1930s

... “consistent” statistics but Dugué also calls the latter “correct estimates.” 9 The first part of his work is devoted to considering “correct” estimates for the case of one, two or a countable number of parameters 10 . The proofs are based on a theorem proved by Khintchine in KHINTCHINE 1929, which ...

... “consistent” statistics but Dugué also calls the latter “correct estimates.” 9 The first part of his work is devoted to considering “correct” estimates for the case of one, two or a countable number of parameters 10 . The proofs are based on a theorem proved by Khintchine in KHINTCHINE 1929, which ...

# Dempster–Shafer theory

The theory of belief functions, also referred to as evidence theory or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), is a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, with understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility and imprecise probability theories. First introduced by Arthur P. Dempster in the context of statistical inference, the theory was later developed by Glenn Shafer into a general framework for modeling epistemic uncertainty - a mathematical theory of evidence. The theory allows one to combine evidence from different sources and arrive at a degree of belief (represented by a mathematical object called belief function) that takes into account all the available evidence.In a narrow sense, the term Dempster–Shafer theory refers to the original conception of the theory by Dempster and Shafer. However, it is more common to use the term in the wider sense of the same general approach, as adapted to specific kinds of situations. In particular, many authors have proposed different rules for combining evidence, often with a view to handling conflicts in evidence better. The early contributions have also been the starting points of many important developments, including the Transferable Belief Model and the Theory of Hints.