S2011925_en.pdf
... Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) posted negative growth in 2009 due to the decline in tourist arrivals, offshore banking and other related services such as construction. At the same time, even though lesser effects on growth were felt by those countries which benefited from robust commodity p ...
... Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) posted negative growth in 2009 due to the decline in tourist arrivals, offshore banking and other related services such as construction. At the same time, even though lesser effects on growth were felt by those countries which benefited from robust commodity p ...
hovedtal for dansk økonomi
... quarter, the multiplier is below 1. It appears from the confidence limits that the increase in government spending has no significant effect on GDP beyond the first year after the implementation of the stimulus. The effect on GDP seems to die out as government spending returns to its initial level. ...
... quarter, the multiplier is below 1. It appears from the confidence limits that the increase in government spending has no significant effect on GDP beyond the first year after the implementation of the stimulus. The effect on GDP seems to die out as government spending returns to its initial level. ...
Are official budget forecasts more prone to over
... Growth Pact itself. But the European data will allow us below to test for the effect on forecast bias of the political pressure from a budget rule such as the SGP. Of the additional seven countries, three are advanced commodity-exporting countries (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand), three are midd ...
... Growth Pact itself. But the European data will allow us below to test for the effect on forecast bias of the political pressure from a budget rule such as the SGP. Of the additional seven countries, three are advanced commodity-exporting countries (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand), three are midd ...
Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability
... deficits. The econometric evidence on the matter is scant and cannot always be interpreted easily. Output variability is the outcome of many different shocks and policies and it is diffi cult to pin down the influence of fiscal policy on it. Instead we resort to counterfactual analy sis in dynamic ...
... deficits. The econometric evidence on the matter is scant and cannot always be interpreted easily. Output variability is the outcome of many different shocks and policies and it is diffi cult to pin down the influence of fiscal policy on it. Instead we resort to counterfactual analy sis in dynamic ...
Budget Paper 1: Budget Strategy and Outlook
... Statement 4: Fiscal Policy in the Current Economic Environment pro-cyclical, exacerbating existing economic weakness, which has in turn hampered achievement of fiscal consolidation objectives. The recent international experience offers three key lessons for fiscal policy. First, the fiscal position ...
... Statement 4: Fiscal Policy in the Current Economic Environment pro-cyclical, exacerbating existing economic weakness, which has in turn hampered achievement of fiscal consolidation objectives. The recent international experience offers three key lessons for fiscal policy. First, the fiscal position ...
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from
... A key to the analysis is the intertemporal budget constraint of the government. To answer the first question (on sustainability), the methodology of Giannitsarou and Scott (2006) is used, and a log linear approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint is derived. Using this framework, it is sh ...
... A key to the analysis is the intertemporal budget constraint of the government. To answer the first question (on sustainability), the methodology of Giannitsarou and Scott (2006) is used, and a log linear approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint is derived. Using this framework, it is sh ...
ściągnij
... One may point to the fact that the CPE enjoyed some economic growth until the late 1980s and merely at that period they lost a momentum and entered the phase of output decline. However, the pattern of growth in the CPE had been of such a nature that it has caused so-called misdevelopment rather than ...
... One may point to the fact that the CPE enjoyed some economic growth until the late 1980s and merely at that period they lost a momentum and entered the phase of output decline. However, the pattern of growth in the CPE had been of such a nature that it has caused so-called misdevelopment rather than ...
SP227: Lost at Sea: The Euro Needs a Euro Treasury
... marvelous success story the euro was and what plentiful benefits it was bringing to Europe, and supposedly the world at large too. Remarkably, even as the global financial crisis was already smoldering for an extended time, EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquín Almunia (2008) pro ...
... marvelous success story the euro was and what plentiful benefits it was bringing to Europe, and supposedly the world at large too. Remarkably, even as the global financial crisis was already smoldering for an extended time, EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquín Almunia (2008) pro ...
Fiscal policy and financial crises – what are the actual effects of
... financial markets had global macroeconomic consequences, in the form of rising unemployment and negative growth prospects. It became clear early on that monetary and liquidity policy instruments would be insufficient; there was also a need for fiscal policy measures. Fiscal stimulus packages were im ...
... financial markets had global macroeconomic consequences, in the form of rising unemployment and negative growth prospects. It became clear early on that monetary and liquidity policy instruments would be insufficient; there was also a need for fiscal policy measures. Fiscal stimulus packages were im ...
Lost at Sea: The Euro Needs a Euro Treasury
... boasting what a marvelous success story the euro was and what plentiful benefits it was bringing to Europe, and supposedly the world at large too. Remarkably, even as the global financial crisis was already smoldering for an extended time, EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquín Al ...
... boasting what a marvelous success story the euro was and what plentiful benefits it was bringing to Europe, and supposedly the world at large too. Remarkably, even as the global financial crisis was already smoldering for an extended time, EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquín Al ...
Large Changes in Fiscal Policy
... Romer (2007) also follow an event approach even though they identify events of large discretionary changes in fiscal policy in a very different way from ours. Using a variety of narrative sources, they identify changes in the U.S. federal tax legislation that are undertaken either to solve an inheri ...
... Romer (2007) also follow an event approach even though they identify events of large discretionary changes in fiscal policy in a very different way from ours. Using a variety of narrative sources, they identify changes in the U.S. federal tax legislation that are undertaken either to solve an inheri ...
Japan`s Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Reconstruction October 22, 2004 by
... could lead the overall government deficits to assume even more serious proportions. 3.2 Public deficits vs. private surplus Although the government-sector debt is large, the nation overall is not in a deficit. ...
... could lead the overall government deficits to assume even more serious proportions. 3.2 Public deficits vs. private surplus Although the government-sector debt is large, the nation overall is not in a deficit. ...
- Munich Personal RePEc Archive
... their results as not robust enough to draw firm conclusions. Thus, further research is needed. We provide empirical evidence in favour of the third narrative, which provides at least three testable hypotheses. Firstly, perspective of joining and then membership in the Euro area subdued the importanc ...
... their results as not robust enough to draw firm conclusions. Thus, further research is needed. We provide empirical evidence in favour of the third narrative, which provides at least three testable hypotheses. Firstly, perspective of joining and then membership in the Euro area subdued the importanc ...
Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Growth within the US States
... US states? Data: Annual data on US states from 1977 - 1997* Key …nding: A one standard deviation increase in the counter-cyclicality of …scal policy increases the average, per-capita growth rate by 0.4% Robust to a number of di¤erent speci…cations and robustness checks Complements Aghion and Marines ...
... US states? Data: Annual data on US states from 1977 - 1997* Key …nding: A one standard deviation increase in the counter-cyclicality of …scal policy increases the average, per-capita growth rate by 0.4% Robust to a number of di¤erent speci…cations and robustness checks Complements Aghion and Marines ...
The debt brake in Germany
... four budgetary key figures and thresholds defined by the Stability Council. Any overrun of these values is interpreted as a warning signal of a looming budget emergency (see also the box inset opposite). In addition, the government entities must draw up standardised medium-term budget projections. A ...
... four budgetary key figures and thresholds defined by the Stability Council. Any overrun of these values is interpreted as a warning signal of a looming budget emergency (see also the box inset opposite). In addition, the government entities must draw up standardised medium-term budget projections. A ...
On the determinants of fiscal stabilizations: Testing the war of
... of model, Spolaore shows that a coalition government delays fiscal adjustment relative to a social planner when the economy is hit by a fiscal shock. Furthermore, he demonstrates that the length of the delay (thus the inefficiency associated with the delay) increases with the number of parties in th ...
... of model, Spolaore shows that a coalition government delays fiscal adjustment relative to a social planner when the economy is hit by a fiscal shock. Furthermore, he demonstrates that the length of the delay (thus the inefficiency associated with the delay) increases with the number of parties in th ...
Is the composition of public expenditures converging in EMU countries
... The first analysis of the convergence of public expenditures will be carried out using statistical measures of dispersion and boxplots4. A convergence process in fiscal variables involves that after EMU, the member states have a more similar percentage in each item than that existing in the period b ...
... The first analysis of the convergence of public expenditures will be carried out using statistical measures of dispersion and boxplots4. A convergence process in fiscal variables involves that after EMU, the member states have a more similar percentage in each item than that existing in the period b ...
testing sigma convergence across eu-28
... European countries using unemployment rate data. The divergence is obvious in technologyintensive manufacturing industries. Le Pen (2011) applied the pair-wise approach of convergence proposed by Pesaran (2007) to the output per capita of some European regions. Crespo-Cuaresma and Fernández-Amador ( ...
... European countries using unemployment rate data. The divergence is obvious in technologyintensive manufacturing industries. Le Pen (2011) applied the pair-wise approach of convergence proposed by Pesaran (2007) to the output per capita of some European regions. Crespo-Cuaresma and Fernández-Amador ( ...
2015 - Do fiscal councils impact fiscal performance?
... It is an advisory body providing macroeconomic forecasts and analyses on fiscal policy issues (such as the functioning of the public sector, the tax system, fiscal sustainability, fiscal stance, issuing policy recommendations). It also monitors compliance with current FRs, so assessing recommendatio ...
... It is an advisory body providing macroeconomic forecasts and analyses on fiscal policy issues (such as the functioning of the public sector, the tax system, fiscal sustainability, fiscal stance, issuing policy recommendations). It also monitors compliance with current FRs, so assessing recommendatio ...
Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending.
... adjustments (deficit reductions) we consider their effect on a medium term stabilization/reduction of the debt over GDP level and their cost in terms of a downturn in the economy. We focus only on large fiscal changes because we try to isolate changes in fiscal policy which are policy induced as opp ...
... adjustments (deficit reductions) we consider their effect on a medium term stabilization/reduction of the debt over GDP level and their cost in terms of a downturn in the economy. We focus only on large fiscal changes because we try to isolate changes in fiscal policy which are policy induced as opp ...
The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy - ECB
... consolidations using the OLS methodology. Ilzetzki and Vegh (2008) use more traditional measures of fiscal policy action, but address the endogeneity through econometric means, and also finds that cutting spending is recessionary. Alesina et al. (2012), however, who use the same data set, but look a ...
... consolidations using the OLS methodology. Ilzetzki and Vegh (2008) use more traditional measures of fiscal policy action, but address the endogeneity through econometric means, and also finds that cutting spending is recessionary. Alesina et al. (2012), however, who use the same data set, but look a ...
(When) Does Austerity Work? On the Conditional Link between
... substantially during the crisis. This finding is consistent with results in a broader literature concerning the size of the fiscal multiplier and its variation across periods of expansion and slack. This growing literature provides strong empirical evidence that the size of the fiscal multiplier dec ...
... substantially during the crisis. This finding is consistent with results in a broader literature concerning the size of the fiscal multiplier and its variation across periods of expansion and slack. This growing literature provides strong empirical evidence that the size of the fiscal multiplier dec ...
Fiscal Policy during the current Crisis
... economic growth. It must be realised that, at times, while the instruments have changed, the main governmental objectives have remained the four listed above [Tanzi (2008)]. Government spending is the most traditional instrument. Both the level of public spending and its structure or composition are ...
... economic growth. It must be realised that, at times, while the instruments have changed, the main governmental objectives have remained the four listed above [Tanzi (2008)]. Government spending is the most traditional instrument. Both the level of public spending and its structure or composition are ...
Computing Cyclically Adjusted Balances and Automatic
... GDP for the primary balance, and potential GDP for the cyclically adjusted balance. At the same time, (13) is useful when seeking to explain the changes in the fiscal balance to GDP ratio—the variable on which policy makers most typically focus: when there are no discretionary actions, (13) provides ...
... GDP for the primary balance, and potential GDP for the cyclically adjusted balance. At the same time, (13) is useful when seeking to explain the changes in the fiscal balance to GDP ratio—the variable on which policy makers most typically focus: when there are no discretionary actions, (13) provides ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DE FACTO FISCAL SPACE AND FISCAL STIMULUS:
... it. In attempts to clarify this fuzzy concept, Heller (2005) defined it “as room in a government’s budget that allows it to provide resources for a desired purpose without jeopardizing the sustainability of its financial position or the stability of the economy.” Our paper aims at defining a measura ...
... it. In attempts to clarify this fuzzy concept, Heller (2005) defined it “as room in a government’s budget that allows it to provide resources for a desired purpose without jeopardizing the sustainability of its financial position or the stability of the economy.” Our paper aims at defining a measura ...
Stability and Growth Pact
The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is an agreement, among the 28 Member states of the European Union, to facilitate and maintain the stability of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Based primarily on Articles 121 and 126 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, it consists of fiscal monitoring of members by the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, and the issuing of a yearly recommendation for policy actions to ensure a full compliance with the SGP also in the medium-term. If a Member State breaches the SGP's outlined maximum limit for government deficit and debt, the surveillance and request for corrective action will intensify through the declaration of an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP); and if these corrective actions continue to remain absent after multiple warnings, the Member State can ultimately be issued economic sanctions. The pact was outlined by a resolution and two council regulations in July 1997. The first regulation ""on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies"", known as the ""preventive arm"", entered into force 1 July 1998. The second regulation ""on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure"", known as the ""dissuasive arm"", entered into force 1 January 1999.The purpose of the pact was to ensure that fiscal discipline would be maintained and enforced in the EMU. All EU member states are automatically members of both the EMU and the SGP, as this is defined by paragraphs in the EU Treaty itself. The fiscal discipline is ensured by the SGP by requiring each Member State, to implement a fiscal policy aiming for the country to stay within the limits on government deficit (3% of GDP) and debt (60% of GDP); and in case of having a debt level above 60% it should each year decline with a satisfactory pace towards a level below. As outlined by the ""preventive arm"" regulation, all EU member states are each year obliged to submit a SGP compliance report for the scrutiny and evaluation of the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, that will present the country's expected fiscal development for the current and subsequent three years. These reports are called ""stability programmes"" for eurozone Member States and ""convergence programmes"" for non-eurozone Member States, but despite having different titles they are identical in regards of the content. After the reform of the SGP in 2005, these programmes have also included the Medium-Term budgetary Objectives (MTO's), being individually calculated for each Member State as the medium-term sustainable average-limit for the country's structural deficit, and the Member State is also obliged to outline the measures it intends to implement to attain its MTO. If the EU Member State does not comply with both the deficit limit and the debt limit, a so-called ""Excessive Deficit Procedure"" (EDP) is initiated along with a deadline to comply, which basically includes and outlines an ""adjustment path towards reaching the MTO"". This procedure is outlined by the ""dissuasive arm"" regulation.The SGP was initially proposed by German finance minister Theo Waigel in the mid-1990s. Germany had long maintained a low-inflation policy, which had been an important part of the German economy's strong performance since the 1950s. The German government hoped to ensure the continuation of that policy through the SGP, which would ensure the prevalence of fiscal responsibility, and limit the ability of governments to exert inflationary pressures on the European economy. As such, it was also described to be a key tool for the Member States adopting the euro, to ensure that they did not only meet the Maastricht convergence criteria at the time of adopting the euro, but kept on to comply with the fiscal criteria for the following years.