New Challenges for Monetary Policy, Symposium Proceedings, 1999
... governments were to try to create a “social union,” harmonizing social security systems and standards at a very high level. The ECB will continue to cajole governments into implementing necessary and long overdue reforms, but the final hard decisions—and I acknowledge that they are hard decisions, s ...
... governments were to try to create a “social union,” harmonizing social security systems and standards at a very high level. The ECB will continue to cajole governments into implementing necessary and long overdue reforms, but the final hard decisions—and I acknowledge that they are hard decisions, s ...
Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2017
... significant challenges, particularly for parts of the exporting sector and areas sensitive to cross-border trade. Over the medium and longer term, the economic impact will crucially depend upon the post-exit relationship between the EU and the UK. From an Irish perspective, a ‘soft exit’ – that is o ...
... significant challenges, particularly for parts of the exporting sector and areas sensitive to cross-border trade. Over the medium and longer term, the economic impact will crucially depend upon the post-exit relationship between the EU and the UK. From an Irish perspective, a ‘soft exit’ – that is o ...
A monetary and fiscal framework for macroeconomic stability in the
... However, the deficit bias of the political sphere can be eliminated by a fiscal rule requiring the structural budget balance to be zero at all time, whereby estimates of the structural budget balance should be conducted by an independent institution. And this is exactly the fiscal framework for the ...
... However, the deficit bias of the political sphere can be eliminated by a fiscal rule requiring the structural budget balance to be zero at all time, whereby estimates of the structural budget balance should be conducted by an independent institution. And this is exactly the fiscal framework for the ...
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from... Economic Research Volume Title: Europe and the Euro
... This might be what will be said about the effects of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on euro area business cycles in 250 years. Indeed, some of these effects may take a long time to manifest themselves, as they result from changes in trade and specialization patterns across the euro area (see, for e ...
... This might be what will be said about the effects of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on euro area business cycles in 250 years. Indeed, some of these effects may take a long time to manifest themselves, as they result from changes in trade and specialization patterns across the euro area (see, for e ...
ESTIMATING THE CYCLICALLY ADJUSTED BUDGET BALANCE
... As a result, it can be used to guide fiscal policy analysis. One approach to examine the impact of discretionary fiscal policy over the cycle is to link the fiscal policy stance, generally measured as the change in the structural fiscal balance, to the cyclical conditions measured by the output gap. ...
... As a result, it can be used to guide fiscal policy analysis. One approach to examine the impact of discretionary fiscal policy over the cycle is to link the fiscal policy stance, generally measured as the change in the structural fiscal balance, to the cyclical conditions measured by the output gap. ...
Poland`s policy mix: fiscal or monetary leadership?
... significantly, affecting competitiveness but also dampening inflationary impulses. This also triggered a tightening of overall monetary conditions (up to mid-2000, real depreciation had largely compensated for an increase in real interest rates). Fiscal policy was expected to tighten significantly ...
... significantly, affecting competitiveness but also dampening inflationary impulses. This also triggered a tightening of overall monetary conditions (up to mid-2000, real depreciation had largely compensated for an increase in real interest rates). Fiscal policy was expected to tighten significantly ...
INST 275 – Administrative Processes in Government
... budget because it moderates conflict, reduces search costs, stabilizes budgetary roles and expectations, reduces the amount of time that busy officials must spend on budgeting, and increases the likelihood that important political values will be taken ...
... budget because it moderates conflict, reduces search costs, stabilizes budgetary roles and expectations, reduces the amount of time that busy officials must spend on budgeting, and increases the likelihood that important political values will be taken ...
The Challenge of Restoring Debt Sustainability in a Deep Economic Recession: The case of Greece
... In the case of Greece, an aggressive fiscal consolidation effort has been undertaken since the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis and the subsequent signing of two consecutive economic stabilization programs. This effort has led to a cumulative adjustment of 19.4ppts of GDP in the cyclically adju ...
... In the case of Greece, an aggressive fiscal consolidation effort has been undertaken since the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis and the subsequent signing of two consecutive economic stabilization programs. This effort has led to a cumulative adjustment of 19.4ppts of GDP in the cyclically adju ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE EURO AREA Domenico Giannone
... When asked in the 1960s about what, in his opinion, had been the impact of the French revolution, the Chinese premiere Zhou Enlai famously said: “it’s too early to tell”. This might be what will be said about the effects of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on euro area business cycles in two hundre ...
... When asked in the 1960s about what, in his opinion, had been the impact of the French revolution, the Chinese premiere Zhou Enlai famously said: “it’s too early to tell”. This might be what will be said about the effects of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on euro area business cycles in two hundre ...
Lodz Economics Working Papers FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY OF THE
... Hakkio and Rush argue, however, that in this case the value of non-discounted public debt grows exponentially over an infinite time-horizon, increasing the likelihood of the emergence of debt service problems as well as raising the probability of the government announcing bankruptcy at some point of ...
... Hakkio and Rush argue, however, that in this case the value of non-discounted public debt grows exponentially over an infinite time-horizon, increasing the likelihood of the emergence of debt service problems as well as raising the probability of the government announcing bankruptcy at some point of ...
How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries?
... GDP in other euro area countries by between 0.2% and 0.3%. In a more recent paper, in ‘t Veld (2016) shows that an investment-based fiscal stimulus in euro area countries with current account surpluses would cause significantly positive GDP spillovers to the rest of the euro area; here, the type of ...
... GDP in other euro area countries by between 0.2% and 0.3%. In a more recent paper, in ‘t Veld (2016) shows that an investment-based fiscal stimulus in euro area countries with current account surpluses would cause significantly positive GDP spillovers to the rest of the euro area; here, the type of ...
Fiscal Governance in the Eurozone: How Effectively Does
... SGP examines the effectiveness of fiscal governance in the euro countries. Compared to the general focus on the SGP’s deficit criterion, we investigate this effectiveness in the context of government debt, which did not play a major role until the emergence of the European sovereign debt crisis in 200 ...
... SGP examines the effectiveness of fiscal governance in the euro countries. Compared to the general focus on the SGP’s deficit criterion, we investigate this effectiveness in the context of government debt, which did not play a major role until the emergence of the European sovereign debt crisis in 200 ...
Ireland`s Stability Programme April 2015 Update
... With expenditure evolving broadly in line with expectations, and taking into account one-off factors, a general government deficit of 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2015 is now expected, consistent with the requirement to correct the excessive deficit this year. Further improvements in the headline balance ...
... With expenditure evolving broadly in line with expectations, and taking into account one-off factors, a general government deficit of 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2015 is now expected, consistent with the requirement to correct the excessive deficit this year. Further improvements in the headline balance ...
One money, but many fiscal policies in Europe
... Trabandt for a very careful reading of and comments on an earlier draft of this paper. This paper has been written for the European Commission Workshop on ”The Interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in EMU,” which took place in Brussels on March 8th, 2002. I am grateful to my discussants ...
... Trabandt for a very careful reading of and comments on an earlier draft of this paper. This paper has been written for the European Commission Workshop on ”The Interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in EMU,” which took place in Brussels on March 8th, 2002. I am grateful to my discussants ...
Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary
... endowed with seigniorage revenues from the Eurosystem. The fiscal criteria would be formulated so as to make fiscal accommodation possible after a severe recessionary shock, while being consistent with fiscal discipline for each country. The second element would be the ability for euro area member s ...
... endowed with seigniorage revenues from the Eurosystem. The fiscal criteria would be formulated so as to make fiscal accommodation possible after a severe recessionary shock, while being consistent with fiscal discipline for each country. The second element would be the ability for euro area member s ...
What kind of convergence does the euro area need?
... and labour, is not perfect, and especially labour mobil- ...
... and labour, is not perfect, and especially labour mobil- ...
Chapter 4 D : M
... Three key fiscal parameters - revenue, fiscal and primary deficits - indicate the extent of overall fiscal imbalances in the Finances of the Union or State Government during a specified period. The revenue deficit of the Union Government which exhibited a declining trend during the first three years ...
... Three key fiscal parameters - revenue, fiscal and primary deficits - indicate the extent of overall fiscal imbalances in the Finances of the Union or State Government during a specified period. The revenue deficit of the Union Government which exhibited a declining trend during the first three years ...
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from... of Economic Research Volume Title: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance
... 5.2 The Fiscal Performance Variables: Evidence from Latin America This section briefly describes the stylized facts on fiscal performance in Latin America in four different dimensions: the size of the public sector, the size of fiscal deficits and public debt, and the business cycle response of fisc ...
... 5.2 The Fiscal Performance Variables: Evidence from Latin America This section briefly describes the stylized facts on fiscal performance in Latin America in four different dimensions: the size of the public sector, the size of fiscal deficits and public debt, and the business cycle response of fisc ...
Should the European Central Bank and the
... -3A natural way to proceed is to decompose fiscal policy into a component that responds systematically to economic conditions and the structural primary deficit: (1) fiscal deficit = [automatic stabilizers + interest payments] + structural primary deficit = ["y + interest payments] + structural pri ...
... -3A natural way to proceed is to decompose fiscal policy into a component that responds systematically to economic conditions and the structural primary deficit: (1) fiscal deficit = [automatic stabilizers + interest payments] + structural primary deficit = ["y + interest payments] + structural pri ...
conference paper
... legitimate economic coercion—international constraints can impose particularly high sovereignty costs on participating states.3 Third, fiscal policy is less technical and removed from democratic political processes than either monetary or exchange rate policy, and thus is more “public” and subject t ...
... legitimate economic coercion—international constraints can impose particularly high sovereignty costs on participating states.3 Third, fiscal policy is less technical and removed from democratic political processes than either monetary or exchange rate policy, and thus is more “public” and subject t ...
Interaction between Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Dynamic
... quarter in which the inflation target (or target interval) was pursued. Initial dates vary, with an interval of 1990:1 for New Zealand and 1995:1 for Spain, with a final analysis period in 2001 for all countries except Finland and Spain, due to the transition to the Euro. They compare these data for ...
... quarter in which the inflation target (or target interval) was pursued. Initial dates vary, with an interval of 1990:1 for New Zealand and 1995:1 for Spain, with a final analysis period in 2001 for all countries except Finland and Spain, due to the transition to the Euro. They compare these data for ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE EURO AND FISCAL POLICY Antonio Fatas Ilian Mihov
... structural balance in a given year, i.e. the budget balance adjusted for cyclical changes. Without a proper understanding of how fiscal policy behaves over the business cycle, it is impossible to provide long-term guidance to budgetary plans. This has been one of the major difficulties of the implem ...
... structural balance in a given year, i.e. the budget balance adjusted for cyclical changes. Without a proper understanding of how fiscal policy behaves over the business cycle, it is impossible to provide long-term guidance to budgetary plans. This has been one of the major difficulties of the implem ...
41 Box I.5: Forecast errors and multiplier uncertainty The - E-SGH
... consolidations is not robust and should not be taken as indirect proof for a larger consolidation multiplier. While it is generally accepted that fiscal multipliers for permanent consolidations are higher now than they would be in 'normal' circumstances, due to higher credit constraints and interest ...
... consolidations is not robust and should not be taken as indirect proof for a larger consolidation multiplier. While it is generally accepted that fiscal multipliers for permanent consolidations are higher now than they would be in 'normal' circumstances, due to higher credit constraints and interest ...
- Munich Personal RePEc Archive
... investment expenditure and direct taxes. In contrast, in the member states which did not benefit from yields’ convergence related to the Euro area establishment, responsiveness of fiscal stance to sovereign debt increased during 1996-2007. It was achieved mainly through pronounced adjustments of gov ...
... investment expenditure and direct taxes. In contrast, in the member states which did not benefit from yields’ convergence related to the Euro area establishment, responsiveness of fiscal stance to sovereign debt increased during 1996-2007. It was achieved mainly through pronounced adjustments of gov ...
Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle
... questions immediately arose: what impact will the slowdown in the economy have on the budgetary balance and to what extent can fiscal policy mitigate this slowdown. The former is concerned with the budgetary position over the business cycle, while the latter refers to the impact of changes in fiscal ...
... questions immediately arose: what impact will the slowdown in the economy have on the budgetary balance and to what extent can fiscal policy mitigate this slowdown. The former is concerned with the budgetary position over the business cycle, while the latter refers to the impact of changes in fiscal ...
Stability and Growth Pact
The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is an agreement, among the 28 Member states of the European Union, to facilitate and maintain the stability of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Based primarily on Articles 121 and 126 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, it consists of fiscal monitoring of members by the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, and the issuing of a yearly recommendation for policy actions to ensure a full compliance with the SGP also in the medium-term. If a Member State breaches the SGP's outlined maximum limit for government deficit and debt, the surveillance and request for corrective action will intensify through the declaration of an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP); and if these corrective actions continue to remain absent after multiple warnings, the Member State can ultimately be issued economic sanctions. The pact was outlined by a resolution and two council regulations in July 1997. The first regulation ""on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies"", known as the ""preventive arm"", entered into force 1 July 1998. The second regulation ""on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure"", known as the ""dissuasive arm"", entered into force 1 January 1999.The purpose of the pact was to ensure that fiscal discipline would be maintained and enforced in the EMU. All EU member states are automatically members of both the EMU and the SGP, as this is defined by paragraphs in the EU Treaty itself. The fiscal discipline is ensured by the SGP by requiring each Member State, to implement a fiscal policy aiming for the country to stay within the limits on government deficit (3% of GDP) and debt (60% of GDP); and in case of having a debt level above 60% it should each year decline with a satisfactory pace towards a level below. As outlined by the ""preventive arm"" regulation, all EU member states are each year obliged to submit a SGP compliance report for the scrutiny and evaluation of the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, that will present the country's expected fiscal development for the current and subsequent three years. These reports are called ""stability programmes"" for eurozone Member States and ""convergence programmes"" for non-eurozone Member States, but despite having different titles they are identical in regards of the content. After the reform of the SGP in 2005, these programmes have also included the Medium-Term budgetary Objectives (MTO's), being individually calculated for each Member State as the medium-term sustainable average-limit for the country's structural deficit, and the Member State is also obliged to outline the measures it intends to implement to attain its MTO. If the EU Member State does not comply with both the deficit limit and the debt limit, a so-called ""Excessive Deficit Procedure"" (EDP) is initiated along with a deadline to comply, which basically includes and outlines an ""adjustment path towards reaching the MTO"". This procedure is outlined by the ""dissuasive arm"" regulation.The SGP was initially proposed by German finance minister Theo Waigel in the mid-1990s. Germany had long maintained a low-inflation policy, which had been an important part of the German economy's strong performance since the 1950s. The German government hoped to ensure the continuation of that policy through the SGP, which would ensure the prevalence of fiscal responsibility, and limit the ability of governments to exert inflationary pressures on the European economy. As such, it was also described to be a key tool for the Member States adopting the euro, to ensure that they did not only meet the Maastricht convergence criteria at the time of adopting the euro, but kept on to comply with the fiscal criteria for the following years.