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Inflation During and After the Zero Lower Bound
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... U.S. Another crucial difference between the U.S. and Europe on the one hand, and Japan on the other is the remarkable stability of long-run inflation expectations in the former two economies despite fairly large swings in actual inflation. Using a flexible time-series model with a good inflation for ...
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... EXPLAINING SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS • If the quantity of money in the economy were to double, prices would double and so would incomes. Real variables would remain constant. • HOWEVER: These changes will not occur instantaneously. It takes time for prices and incomes to change, and in the mea ...
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... Which list contains only actions that decrease the money supply? a. raise the discount rate, make open market purchases b. raise the discount rate, make open market sales c. lower the discount rate, make open market purchases d. lower the discount rate, make open market sales If reserve requirements ...
An Empirical Examination of the dynamics of Negative INFLATION
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... 2004, with prices falling steadily. Prices in Hong Kong finally began to rise in 2005 and inflation recovered to 2%, on an annualized basis in 2007 (Fukuda & Yamada, 2012). The country suffered a burst in the property price bubble, where residential property prices and rentals fell by around 60% and ...
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... The consequences of imperfect information became a central theme of the “New Classical macroeconomics” of the 1970s, as a consequence of the celebrated Lucas (1972) model of how business fluctuations result from monetary surprises. Lucas adopts the “island” setting suggested in Phelps (1970), but in ...
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... al. 1999). In practice, while few central banks reach the “ideal” of being “full fledged” inflation targeters, many others still focus on fighting inflation to the virtual exclusion of other goals. For its proponents, the appropriate inflation target is typically prescribed as maintaining price stab ...
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... It is especially important for the conduct of monetary policy. In the literature, the current approach to theoretical modeling is to assume some kind of “sticky prices” (and/or wages) in the optimization problems of forward-looking individuals and firms.1 Most of the models in this literature use th ...
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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES CHOOSING THE FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR: LESSONS FROM HISTORY
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... (Minutes, 1/26/37, p. 3). Policymakers also felt that “the increase in reserve requirements was fully justified in order to put the System in position to exercise credit control through open market operations whenever such action appeared to be necessary” (3/15/37, p. 9; see also 1/26/37, pp. 5-7). ...
A model of secular stagnation
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... deleveraging - rather than facilitating the transition to a new steady state with a positive interest rate - will instead reduce the real rate even further by increasing the supply of savings in the future. The point here is not to predict that the natural rate of interest will necessarily remain ne ...
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Deflation fears in developed economies

... recovery. The private sector reduces savings, and consumer and capital investment demand increases. In a debt spiral, by contrast, the private sector will continue to try to cut its debts and increase its savings, even as liquidity is provided to the banking sector and interest rates are kept low. H ...
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Phillips curve



In economics, the Phillips curve is a historical inverse relationship between rates of unemployment and corresponding rates of inflation that result in an economy. Stated simply, decreased unemployment, (i.e., increased levels of employment) in an economy will correlate with higher rates of inflation.While there is a short run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, it has not been observed in the long run. In 1968, Milton Friedman asserted that the Phillips Curve was only applicable in the short-run and that in the long-run, inflationary policies will not decrease unemployment. Friedman then correctly predicted that, in the upcoming years after 1968, both inflation and unemployment would increase. The long-run Phillips Curve is now seen as a vertical line at the natural rate of unemployment, where the rate of inflation has no effect on unemployment. Accordingly, the Phillips curve is now seen as too simplistic, with the unemployment rate supplanted by more accurate predictors of inflation based on velocity of money supply measures such as the MZM (""money zero maturity"") velocity, which is affected by unemployment in the short but not the long term.
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