Roger Jones - Climate sensitivity, coping ranges and risk
... Singular or unique event An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over ...
... Singular or unique event An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over ...
related paper by Mann (PDF)
... feedback derives from the fact that water vapor is also a potent greenhouse gas, but its presence in the atmosphere is controlled by surface temperatures themselves through the control they have on relative humidity levels. Hence, a given initial amount of warming leads to even more warming because ...
... feedback derives from the fact that water vapor is also a potent greenhouse gas, but its presence in the atmosphere is controlled by surface temperatures themselves through the control they have on relative humidity levels. Hence, a given initial amount of warming leads to even more warming because ...
Coastal Vulnerability Handout
... Variety of questions raised by different socio-political conditions ...
... Variety of questions raised by different socio-political conditions ...
Field Project 4—Integration of Climate Information from Multiple
... to glaciers, vulnerability to impacts of glacial retreat, balance of individual and public ownership of natural resources, and relevant organizations in the community. Individual variables will include socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, ownership of resources impacted by glacial retreat, ...
... to glaciers, vulnerability to impacts of glacial retreat, balance of individual and public ownership of natural resources, and relevant organizations in the community. Individual variables will include socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, ownership of resources impacted by glacial retreat, ...
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the
... A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentration ...
... A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentration ...
The weather and climate of the tropics: Part 10
... climatic state has a similar variability as the current climate, or the variability changes. In the first case, the number of extreme weather events will change little, but in the latter case, it is likely that variability will increase. More extreme events would be likely, posing a risk of greater ...
... climatic state has a similar variability as the current climate, or the variability changes. In the first case, the number of extreme weather events will change little, but in the latter case, it is likely that variability will increase. More extreme events would be likely, posing a risk of greater ...
Supplementary Information - Stockholm Resilience Centre
... In the analysis of planetary boundaries and associated threshold dynamics we have included Earth system processes that (to the best of our knowledge) present any of the three response behaviors to change represented in Fig. S1 (systems predominantly responding with linear gradual change (Fig. S1a), ...
... In the analysis of planetary boundaries and associated threshold dynamics we have included Earth system processes that (to the best of our knowledge) present any of the three response behaviors to change represented in Fig. S1 (systems predominantly responding with linear gradual change (Fig. S1a), ...
Chapter 13: Global Climate Change
... unlikely to be due to internal variability alone…and is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin…Detection and attribution studies consistently find evidence for anthropogenic signal in the climate record of the last 25-50 years…most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have ...
... unlikely to be due to internal variability alone…and is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin…Detection and attribution studies consistently find evidence for anthropogenic signal in the climate record of the last 25-50 years…most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have ...
PDF
... extremes may occur due to a shift in the whole distribution, where there is an increase in the entire temperature probability distribution, or to changes in the shape of the distribution, such as an increase in variability causing a widening of the distribution. Understanding the precise characteris ...
... extremes may occur due to a shift in the whole distribution, where there is an increase in the entire temperature probability distribution, or to changes in the shape of the distribution, such as an increase in variability causing a widening of the distribution. Understanding the precise characteris ...
Climate Change - The Climate Institute
... remains sound. In true scientific spirit, the IPCC has welcomed the criticism.28 Indeed, far from being ‘alarmist’, there is evidence that the IPCC may have sometimes been too conservative. Projections of sea-level rise for instance, were probably underestimated in the 2007 report.29 In other cases, ...
... remains sound. In true scientific spirit, the IPCC has welcomed the criticism.28 Indeed, far from being ‘alarmist’, there is evidence that the IPCC may have sometimes been too conservative. Projections of sea-level rise for instance, were probably underestimated in the 2007 report.29 In other cases, ...
PDF
... their contribution to recent warming is negligible [Lean and Rind, 2008; Lockwood, 2008], there is evidence for contributions to temperature variability both from the 11‐year cycle [e.g., Lean and Rind, 2008] and from grand minima in the past. Indeed, the MM coincides with a portion of the “Little I ...
... their contribution to recent warming is negligible [Lean and Rind, 2008; Lockwood, 2008], there is evidence for contributions to temperature variability both from the 11‐year cycle [e.g., Lean and Rind, 2008] and from grand minima in the past. Indeed, the MM coincides with a portion of the “Little I ...
The Reality, Risks and Response to Climate Change
... Extreme weather is not just an abstract concept. It is a reality that affects people across the country. In 2013, two out of three Americans said weather in the United States has been worse over the past several years, up twelve percentage points since spring 2012. Many (51%) say weather in their l ...
... Extreme weather is not just an abstract concept. It is a reality that affects people across the country. In 2013, two out of three Americans said weather in the United States has been worse over the past several years, up twelve percentage points since spring 2012. Many (51%) say weather in their l ...
Kashyapi_Prest. AK FLORIDA final
... CC IN EARLY 21ST CENTURY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE FOREST PRODUCTION, BUT WITH HIGH SENSITIVITY TO DROUGHT, STORMS, INSECTS AND OTHER DISTURBANCES MODERATE CC IN EARLY DECADES OF CENTURY TO INCREASE AGGREGATE YIELDS OF RAINFED AGRICULTURE BY 5 TO 20% WARMER SUMMER TEMP. PROJECTED TO EXTEND HIGH FIRE ...
... CC IN EARLY 21ST CENTURY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE FOREST PRODUCTION, BUT WITH HIGH SENSITIVITY TO DROUGHT, STORMS, INSECTS AND OTHER DISTURBANCES MODERATE CC IN EARLY DECADES OF CENTURY TO INCREASE AGGREGATE YIELDS OF RAINFED AGRICULTURE BY 5 TO 20% WARMER SUMMER TEMP. PROJECTED TO EXTEND HIGH FIRE ...
Recent Changes in Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Motion
... pattern in these regions (Table 2). During NAO+, the zonal, component of ice motion in the East Greenland Sea is toward the Greenland coast thus decreasing the ice extent. The meridional component, however, is enhanced as indicated by the increase in ice area flux discussed above. Under NAO- conditi ...
... pattern in these regions (Table 2). During NAO+, the zonal, component of ice motion in the East Greenland Sea is toward the Greenland coast thus decreasing the ice extent. The meridional component, however, is enhanced as indicated by the increase in ice area flux discussed above. Under NAO- conditi ...
Dynamics of the Subarctic Gyre and physical/biological interactions
... • Regime shifts and hypothesis of advection of Calanus as the link between temperature and cod recruitment (Sundby 2000) • New interpretations on the GSAs (Sundby and Drinkwater 2005) - implications for advection • Some very preliminary results on abundance of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea ...
... • Regime shifts and hypothesis of advection of Calanus as the link between temperature and cod recruitment (Sundby 2000) • New interpretations on the GSAs (Sundby and Drinkwater 2005) - implications for advection • Some very preliminary results on abundance of Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea ...
Modeling the Impact of Afforestation on Global Climate: A 2
... can lead to a net positive forcing due to a lower surface albedo. In addition, GCM simulations by Gibbard et al. (2005) showed that total replacement of current vegetation by trees would lead to warming similar to 2 × CO2 scenarios while replacement of vegetation by grassland would lead to moderate ...
... can lead to a net positive forcing due to a lower surface albedo. In addition, GCM simulations by Gibbard et al. (2005) showed that total replacement of current vegetation by trees would lead to warming similar to 2 × CO2 scenarios while replacement of vegetation by grassland would lead to moderate ...
1.1 Framework 1.1.1 Climate change
... Figure 1.1) Great ocean conveyor logo [Broecker 1987], a cartoon of global circulation of ocean waters. [illustration by Joe Le Monnier, Natural History Magazine]. Superimposed: a highly simplified thermohaline circulation [Rahmstorf, 2002]. ...
... Figure 1.1) Great ocean conveyor logo [Broecker 1987], a cartoon of global circulation of ocean waters. [illustration by Joe Le Monnier, Natural History Magazine]. Superimposed: a highly simplified thermohaline circulation [Rahmstorf, 2002]. ...
Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to
... 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temp ...
... 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temp ...
A summary for policymakers
... to take place earlier, with increased melt in spring, but less change will be noticed at lower than higher elevations. One of the strongest effects is the significant reduction in glacier melt contribution expected by the middle of the century, and a constriction of the period where glacier melt is ...
... to take place earlier, with increased melt in spring, but less change will be noticed at lower than higher elevations. One of the strongest effects is the significant reduction in glacier melt contribution expected by the middle of the century, and a constriction of the period where glacier melt is ...
Risks from Climate Feedbacks
... result in inaccurate projections. This does not alter the fundamental model prediction that increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will cause the climate to warm, but it does increase uncertainty about the magnitude and speed of the warming. ...
... result in inaccurate projections. This does not alter the fundamental model prediction that increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will cause the climate to warm, but it does increase uncertainty about the magnitude and speed of the warming. ...
American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?
... dangerous climate change, however, are “based on psychological, social, moral, institutional and cultural processes” (Dessai et al., 2004). While experts tend to narrowly define risks using two dimensions (e.g., probabilities and severity of consequences), the general public has been found to utiliz ...
... dangerous climate change, however, are “based on psychological, social, moral, institutional and cultural processes” (Dessai et al., 2004). While experts tend to narrowly define risks using two dimensions (e.g., probabilities and severity of consequences), the general public has been found to utiliz ...
Physical impacts of climate change
This article is about the physical impacts of climate change. For some of these physical impacts, their effect on social and economic systems are also described.