Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies
... began to rebuild infrastructure, both oil and non-oil sectors grew substantially, and per capita GDP reached middle-income levels. However, by 2008 expansionary fiscal and monetary policies and an overvalued exchange rate had left the country vulnerable. In the early years of the boom, Angola saved ...
... began to rebuild infrastructure, both oil and non-oil sectors grew substantially, and per capita GDP reached middle-income levels. However, by 2008 expansionary fiscal and monetary policies and an overvalued exchange rate had left the country vulnerable. In the early years of the boom, Angola saved ...
Shale oil - PwC Australia
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
... dramatic local effects on pricing in areas where shale oil is produced but access to export infrastructure is limited. The US domestic oil price has already decoupled from global indices and imports are forecast to decline (as shown Chart 2 below). Put simply, increased shale oil production could le ...
Inflation in Developing Asia: Demand-Pull or Cost
... external shocks are solely to blame for the region’s current inflation woes, it also reveals that those shocks have played a supportive role. Excess aggregate demand growth may have kindled the flames in the first place, but commodity shocks are adding fuel to the fire. They are likely to add ...
... external shocks are solely to blame for the region’s current inflation woes, it also reveals that those shocks have played a supportive role. Excess aggregate demand growth may have kindled the flames in the first place, but commodity shocks are adding fuel to the fire. They are likely to add ...
Demand from China: Fact or Fiction?
... It is commonly assumed that China’s rapid economic growth has resulted in its having an increased demand for and consumption of world commodities, and that this increased consumption by China has driven up global commodity prices. This report shows that the inverse is true. China’s rapid growth come ...
... It is commonly assumed that China’s rapid economic growth has resulted in its having an increased demand for and consumption of world commodities, and that this increased consumption by China has driven up global commodity prices. This report shows that the inverse is true. China’s rapid growth come ...
Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two
... The oil and gas boom in the North Sea has been the principal, but by no means, only cause of this substantial growth. Strong rises in oil and gas prices have caused Norway’s terms of trade to double since 2001. These price rises have profound effects on the economy, as they constitute both a large s ...
... The oil and gas boom in the North Sea has been the principal, but by no means, only cause of this substantial growth. Strong rises in oil and gas prices have caused Norway’s terms of trade to double since 2001. These price rises have profound effects on the economy, as they constitute both a large s ...
Chapter 4 THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICE ON INDONESIAN OUTPUT
... $/barrel, a psychological price, in first quarter 2008. This historical record continued to 140 US $/barrel in June 2008 and in the middle of July 2008 the price posed the highest point at 147.27 US $/barrel in New York Spot Market. However, after reached its peak level, the price started to decline ...
... $/barrel, a psychological price, in first quarter 2008. This historical record continued to 140 US $/barrel in June 2008 and in the middle of July 2008 the price posed the highest point at 147.27 US $/barrel in New York Spot Market. However, after reached its peak level, the price started to decline ...
Petroleum Product Subsidies: Costly, Inequitable, and Rising
... Petroleum product subsidies have again started to rise with the rebound in international prices. This note reviews recent developments in subsidy levels and argues that it is necessary to reform the policy framework for setting petroleum product prices in order to reduce the fiscal burden of these s ...
... Petroleum product subsidies have again started to rise with the rebound in international prices. This note reviews recent developments in subsidy levels and argues that it is necessary to reform the policy framework for setting petroleum product prices in order to reduce the fiscal burden of these s ...
VAR Models in Macroeconomic Research
... fluctuations. The next section clarifies some of the concepts of the methodology. Some of the gains and limitations of using the VAR methodology to study economic time series are also discussed. ...
... fluctuations. The next section clarifies some of the concepts of the methodology. Some of the gains and limitations of using the VAR methodology to study economic time series are also discussed. ...
197—l975 Knut anton brk
... in those years. Consumption declined permanently by about three percent in response to the decline in real incomes associated with the Increase in ...
... in those years. Consumption declined permanently by about three percent in response to the decline in real incomes associated with the Increase in ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES Junhee Lee Joonhyuk Song
... increases seem to slowly pass the impact to the price of non-energy goods and services and led to dissociation between the headline and core inflation. This widening gap between two measures of inflation re-ignites debates over which inflation measure the central bank should focus has been resurfac ...
... increases seem to slowly pass the impact to the price of non-energy goods and services and led to dissociation between the headline and core inflation. This widening gap between two measures of inflation re-ignites debates over which inflation measure the central bank should focus has been resurfac ...
What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies.
... in explaining fluctuations in the real price of oil and global oil production. This is a new finding in the literature. Interestingly, the emerging-market demand shock has by far the strongest effect on Asia, confirming that the Asian countries are the main drivers in the emerging block. Third, we ...
... in explaining fluctuations in the real price of oil and global oil production. This is a new finding in the literature. Interestingly, the emerging-market demand shock has by far the strongest effect on Asia, confirming that the Asian countries are the main drivers in the emerging block. Third, we ...
What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed
... suggested that there is a significant negative relationship between oil price increases and economic activity in a number of different countries (see, e.g., Burbidge and Harrison (1984), Gisser and Goodwin (1986), Bjørnland (2000) and Hamilton (1996, 2003, 2009) among many others). Higher energy pri ...
... suggested that there is a significant negative relationship between oil price increases and economic activity in a number of different countries (see, e.g., Burbidge and Harrison (1984), Gisser and Goodwin (1986), Bjørnland (2000) and Hamilton (1996, 2003, 2009) among many others). Higher energy pri ...
the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price
... been self-su¤cient in oil resources during most of the period examined, whereas the remaining two countries are net oil importers. Many of the previous studies analysing the e¡ects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic performance have used VAR models identi¢ed through exclusion restrictions that fol ...
... been self-su¤cient in oil resources during most of the period examined, whereas the remaining two countries are net oil importers. Many of the previous studies analysing the e¡ects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic performance have used VAR models identi¢ed through exclusion restrictions that fol ...
oil price shocks and economic growth in nigeria: are
... unanticipated rises in the price of oil have a negative impact on output growth. Subsequent oil price episodes2 have resulted in the evolution of the perception of these price changes and thus a number of alternative explanations have been proferred for the influence of oil price increases on real a ...
... unanticipated rises in the price of oil have a negative impact on output growth. Subsequent oil price episodes2 have resulted in the evolution of the perception of these price changes and thus a number of alternative explanations have been proferred for the influence of oil price increases on real a ...
Causes and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks on the UK Economy
... Union. In particular, we analyse how the e¤ects of oil price ‡uctuations on the UK economy may depend on the nature of the underlying shock. Our structural VAR model distinguishes between oil price changes caused by exogenous disruptions in oil production, oil demand shocks driven by global real ec ...
... Union. In particular, we analyse how the e¤ects of oil price ‡uctuations on the UK economy may depend on the nature of the underlying shock. Our structural VAR model distinguishes between oil price changes caused by exogenous disruptions in oil production, oil demand shocks driven by global real ec ...
Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation
... policy response to oil price shocks, we may try to explain the absence of stagflation as the result of improved monetary policy responses to oil price shocks. In that view, the central bank – by quenching completely the inflationary pressures associated with unexpectedly high oil prices – prevents s ...
... policy response to oil price shocks, we may try to explain the absence of stagflation as the result of improved monetary policy responses to oil price shocks. In that view, the central bank – by quenching completely the inflationary pressures associated with unexpectedly high oil prices – prevents s ...
What is the Welfare Social Cost of Oil Price?
... invasion of Kuwait of 1990, the Afghan War of 2001, the Venezuelan crisis and Iraq War of 2002-03, and the Libyan uprising of 2011. However, as pointed out by Kilian (2014), while some events were exogeneous with respect to the U.S. economy they did not cause oil price shocks. For instance, the Yom ...
... invasion of Kuwait of 1990, the Afghan War of 2001, the Venezuelan crisis and Iraq War of 2002-03, and the Libyan uprising of 2011. However, as pointed out by Kilian (2014), while some events were exogeneous with respect to the U.S. economy they did not cause oil price shocks. For instance, the Yom ...
Commodity prices and their role in assessing euro area growth and
... tend to coincide with commodity-impacting changes in consumption patterns, such as preferences related to transportation, housing or diet. In the ten years up to 2003 emerging economies accounted for, on average, around half of global real GDP growth, while their share in the period since then has r ...
... tend to coincide with commodity-impacting changes in consumption patterns, such as preferences related to transportation, housing or diet. In the ten years up to 2003 emerging economies accounted for, on average, around half of global real GDP growth, while their share in the period since then has r ...
Nevada Agricultural Outlook, 2016
... yet moderate price increases are projected thereafter but staying below $90 per barrel by 2025. Oil price outlooks always have substantial risk around them, however, this year the uncertainty seems to be even greater. Factors including the still slow growth of the global economy, the pace of Saudi p ...
... yet moderate price increases are projected thereafter but staying below $90 per barrel by 2025. Oil price outlooks always have substantial risk around them, however, this year the uncertainty seems to be even greater. Factors including the still slow growth of the global economy, the pace of Saudi p ...
Oil Prices and the Global Economy
... The weakening relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy can partly be attributed to changes in the underlying shocks driving oil prices. Oil price increases induced by supply shocks, according to several authors using structural VAR models, have much more pronounced effects on the economy ...
... The weakening relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy can partly be attributed to changes in the underlying shocks driving oil prices. Oil price increases induced by supply shocks, according to several authors using structural VAR models, have much more pronounced effects on the economy ...
The GCC Countries and the World: Scenarios to 2025
... fashion. From 2016, recovery is slow due to festering problems in geopolitics; however, a reduction in non-OPEC supply due to delayed projects means that OPEC is able to defend a floor of $45 in real terms until 2025. In The Fertile Gulf, strong global demand for oil of almost 2% per annum (driven p ...
... fashion. From 2016, recovery is slow due to festering problems in geopolitics; however, a reduction in non-OPEC supply due to delayed projects means that OPEC is able to defend a floor of $45 in real terms until 2025. In The Fertile Gulf, strong global demand for oil of almost 2% per annum (driven p ...
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from... National Bureau of Economic Research
... the Korean economy.4 The pre-crisis sample period is 1987:I to 1997:IV and post-crisis sample period is 2000:I to 2009:I. The division is also helpful to compare the effects of the recent oil price hike from the previous ones before the 1990s. We first show the means and standard deviations of the lo ...
... the Korean economy.4 The pre-crisis sample period is 1987:I to 1997:IV and post-crisis sample period is 2000:I to 2009:I. The division is also helpful to compare the effects of the recent oil price hike from the previous ones before the 1990s. We first show the means and standard deviations of the lo ...
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling
... This line of reasoning suggests that increases in freight rates may be used as indicators of strong cumulative global demand pressures. I will use this insight to identify periods of high and low real economic activity. The proposed index is measured at monthly frequency and can be constructed as fa ...
... This line of reasoning suggests that increases in freight rates may be used as indicators of strong cumulative global demand pressures. I will use this insight to identify periods of high and low real economic activity. The proposed index is measured at monthly frequency and can be constructed as fa ...
Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s
... of large increases in uncertainty about the price of oil. If uncertainty is an impor tant channel by which oil price shocks cause recessions, we would expect to see a sharp drop in sales of energy-using durables such as cars after each mzyor oil price change. Although there is some evidence that ca ...
... of large increases in uncertainty about the price of oil. If uncertainty is an impor tant channel by which oil price shocks cause recessions, we would expect to see a sharp drop in sales of energy-using durables such as cars after each mzyor oil price change. Although there is some evidence that ca ...
oil price volatility and economic activity
... changes in oil price level (mean price in a given period), but also the effects of price volatility (standard deviation in a given period) as well. The evidence confirms that volatility has a considerable influence on economic output. For example, recent US EIA estimates blamed oil price volatility ...
... changes in oil price level (mean price in a given period), but also the effects of price volatility (standard deviation in a given period) as well. The evidence confirms that volatility has a considerable influence on economic output. For example, recent US EIA estimates blamed oil price volatility ...
2000s energy crisis
From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports from the United States Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves worries over peak oil, Middle East tension, and oil price speculation.For a time, geo-political events and natural disasters indirectly related to the global oil market had strong short-term effects on oil prices, such as North Korean missile tests, the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon, worries over Iranian nuclear plans in 2006, Hurricane Katrina, and various other factors. By 2008, such pressures appeared to have an insignificant impact on oil prices given the onset of the global recession. The recession caused demand for energy to shrink in late 2008, with oil prices falling from the July 2008 high of $147 to a December 2008 low of $32. Oil prices stabilized by October 2009 and established a trading range between $60 and $80.