Can the Term Spread Predict Output Growth and Recessions? A
... such as Markov-switching models and smooth transition models, to account for structural changes or other nonlinearities. Many studies find that the term spread predicts output growth and recessions up to one year in advance, but several also find its usefulness varies across countries and over time. ...
... such as Markov-switching models and smooth transition models, to account for structural changes or other nonlinearities. Many studies find that the term spread predicts output growth and recessions up to one year in advance, but several also find its usefulness varies across countries and over time. ...
DOES HIGH INFLATION AFFECT GROWTH IN THE LONG
... and output (e.g., Orphanides and Solow, 1990). There are three possible results regarding the impact of inflation on output and growth: i) none; ii) positive; and iii) negative. Sidrauski (1967) established the first result, showing that money is neutral and superneutral 1 in an optimal control fram ...
... and output (e.g., Orphanides and Solow, 1990). There are three possible results regarding the impact of inflation on output and growth: i) none; ii) positive; and iii) negative. Sidrauski (1967) established the first result, showing that money is neutral and superneutral 1 in an optimal control fram ...
Ending Poverty in America: The First Step
... “structuralist” or “individualist” explanation is that they fail to see the process of poverty. Structuralists, if they remain excessively loyal to their methodological holism, will fail to see the importance of individual actions and choices in the determination of individual poverty outcomes and h ...
... “structuralist” or “individualist” explanation is that they fail to see the process of poverty. Structuralists, if they remain excessively loyal to their methodological holism, will fail to see the importance of individual actions and choices in the determination of individual poverty outcomes and h ...
Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: DO Technology
... sign of the (also transitory) response of labor productivity x depends on the size of w, and is positive whenever w ú 1. As made clear by (11), the latter condition corresponds to the notion of ‘‘short-run increasing returns to labor’’ emphasized in the literature on the cyclical behavior of product ...
... sign of the (also transitory) response of labor productivity x depends on the size of w, and is positive whenever w ú 1. As made clear by (11), the latter condition corresponds to the notion of ‘‘short-run increasing returns to labor’’ emphasized in the literature on the cyclical behavior of product ...
Long-Run and Short-Run Concerns: Growth, Productivity
... • Deflation is a decrease in the overall (average) price level. • Sustained inflation is inflation that continues over a significant period of time. ...
... • Deflation is a decrease in the overall (average) price level. • Sustained inflation is inflation that continues over a significant period of time. ...
Ending Poverty in America: The First Step
... “structuralist” or “individualist” explanation is that they fail to see the process of poverty. Structuralists, if they remain excessively loyal to their methodological holism, will fail to see the importance of individual actions and choices in the determination of individual poverty outcomes and h ...
... “structuralist” or “individualist” explanation is that they fail to see the process of poverty. Structuralists, if they remain excessively loyal to their methodological holism, will fail to see the importance of individual actions and choices in the determination of individual poverty outcomes and h ...
Aid, Policies, and Growth: Revisiting the Evidence
... believe that differences in institutions and state policies are at the root of large differences in income per capita across countries.” There is some disagreement about the relative importance of different institutions and policies, but that is not germane to our argument. We have not attempted to ...
... believe that differences in institutions and state policies are at the root of large differences in income per capita across countries.” There is some disagreement about the relative importance of different institutions and policies, but that is not germane to our argument. We have not attempted to ...
Aid, Policies, and Growth: Revisiting the Evidence
... believe that differences in institutions and state policies are at the root of large differences in income per capita across countries.” There is some disagreement about the relative importance of different institutions and policies, but that is not germane to our argument. We have not attempted to ...
... believe that differences in institutions and state policies are at the root of large differences in income per capita across countries.” There is some disagreement about the relative importance of different institutions and policies, but that is not germane to our argument. We have not attempted to ...
On the Statics and Dynamics of Net External Assets
... capita if international (interregional) capital flows are efficient. In the economic theory, there are two main forces that drive the evolution of NEA: consumption smoothing and domestic investment opportunities. If an open economy is below its steady state, it should have high rates of return on ca ...
... capita if international (interregional) capital flows are efficient. In the economic theory, there are two main forces that drive the evolution of NEA: consumption smoothing and domestic investment opportunities. If an open economy is below its steady state, it should have high rates of return on ca ...
Inflation and Unemployment
... mainly from fluctuations in the pace of technological change. But other sources might be international disturbances, climate fluctuations, or natural disasters. We’ll explore RBC theory by looking first at its impulse and then at the mechanism that converts that impulse into a cycle in real GDP. ...
... mainly from fluctuations in the pace of technological change. But other sources might be international disturbances, climate fluctuations, or natural disasters. We’ll explore RBC theory by looking first at its impulse and then at the mechanism that converts that impulse into a cycle in real GDP. ...
01-Growth and Investment
... growth. The Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing measures including negative interest rates on marginal excess reserve deposits adopted in February are expected to support private demand. Japan’s medium to long term growth prospects remain weak, primarily reflecting a declining labour ...
... growth. The Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing measures including negative interest rates on marginal excess reserve deposits adopted in February are expected to support private demand. Japan’s medium to long term growth prospects remain weak, primarily reflecting a declining labour ...
The profit investment nexus Michael Roberts
... This paper starts from the premise that investment (especially business investment) is the key driver of economic growth and the main swing factor in the capitalist business cycle of boom and slump. . In section 1, on theory, the paper looks at the Keynesian macro-identities which suggest that inves ...
... This paper starts from the premise that investment (especially business investment) is the key driver of economic growth and the main swing factor in the capitalist business cycle of boom and slump. . In section 1, on theory, the paper looks at the Keynesian macro-identities which suggest that inves ...
WTO2012_Panizza_presentation
... • Packages often come with: – Requests for fiscal consolidation – Not “too much” money – Interest rates which are above the opportunity cost of funds ...
... • Packages often come with: – Requests for fiscal consolidation – Not “too much” money – Interest rates which are above the opportunity cost of funds ...
Financialisation and the financial and economic crises: Theoretical
... In the country studies the channels of transmission of an increasing dominance of finance and the financial sector, i.e.‘financialisation’, on short- and long-run economic developments will be explored. The following structure was followed for each country study. Firstly, the long-run developments o ...
... In the country studies the channels of transmission of an increasing dominance of finance and the financial sector, i.e.‘financialisation’, on short- and long-run economic developments will be explored. The following structure was followed for each country study. Firstly, the long-run developments o ...
The Economic Consequences of Defense Expenditures in the Middle East Looney, R.E.
... regression techniques using Benoit's data set for the 1950-65 period. The original study (Frederiksen and Looney, 1982) using this methodology grouped countries on the basis of discriminant analysis with savings and investment used as discriminating variables and found that countries with relatively ...
... regression techniques using Benoit's data set for the 1950-65 period. The original study (Frederiksen and Looney, 1982) using this methodology grouped countries on the basis of discriminant analysis with savings and investment used as discriminating variables and found that countries with relatively ...
State of the Economy and Prospects
... Community, social, & personal services GDP at factor cost ...
... Community, social, & personal services GDP at factor cost ...
Korea-UNEP+REPORT
... Korea’s ‘Green New Deal’ stimulus package exceeded the recommendations in its allocation of stimulus towards green infrastructure and lowering carbon dependency. More recently, on 6 July 2009, the Republic of Korea announced a “Five-Year Green Growth Plan”, to serve as a medium-term plan for impleme ...
... Korea’s ‘Green New Deal’ stimulus package exceeded the recommendations in its allocation of stimulus towards green infrastructure and lowering carbon dependency. More recently, on 6 July 2009, the Republic of Korea announced a “Five-Year Green Growth Plan”, to serve as a medium-term plan for impleme ...
Asia Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, May 9, 2017
... transition in China would also have large spillovers. Geopolitical tensions and domestic political uncertainties could burden the outlook for various countries. Over the medium term, growth faces secular headwinds, including from population aging in some countries and slowing productivity catch-up, ...
... transition in China would also have large spillovers. Geopolitical tensions and domestic political uncertainties could burden the outlook for various countries. Over the medium term, growth faces secular headwinds, including from population aging in some countries and slowing productivity catch-up, ...
2. How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Harness the Demographic
... CHANNELS AND CHALLENGES As noted previously, the demographic transition presents sub-Saharan African countries with an opportunity to benefit from the demographic dividend arising from additional growth due to changes in the population age structure and accompanying policies. A demographic transitio ...
... CHANNELS AND CHALLENGES As noted previously, the demographic transition presents sub-Saharan African countries with an opportunity to benefit from the demographic dividend arising from additional growth due to changes in the population age structure and accompanying policies. A demographic transitio ...
LCCARL252_en.pdf
... A. THE WORLD ECONOMY AND THE NEW INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO The new world economy that is to emerge when the international turmoil is over will undoubtedly be different from the economy that prevailed until mid-2008, in at least two aspects. First, average world economic growth will be lower than during ...
... A. THE WORLD ECONOMY AND THE NEW INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO The new world economy that is to emerge when the international turmoil is over will undoubtedly be different from the economy that prevailed until mid-2008, in at least two aspects. First, average world economic growth will be lower than during ...
FRBSF E L CONOMIC ETTER
... in stark contrast to past recessions, when productivity typically declined. Indeed, using Gali’s (1999) method of identifying changes in potential productivity, we find that during this recession potential productivity has actually increased at an above-trend rate.We then look at the factors determi ...
... in stark contrast to past recessions, when productivity typically declined. Indeed, using Gali’s (1999) method of identifying changes in potential productivity, we find that during this recession potential productivity has actually increased at an above-trend rate.We then look at the factors determi ...
Economic growth
Economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product, or real GDP. Of more importance is the growth of the ratio of GDP to population (GDP per capita, which is also called per capita income). An increase in growth caused by more efficient use of inputs (such as physical capital, population, or territory) is referred to as intensive growth. GDP growth caused only by increases in the amount of inputs available for use is called extensive growth.In economics, ""economic growth"" or ""economic growth theory"" typically refers to growth of potential output, i.e., production at ""full employment"". As an area of study, economic growth is generally distinguished from development economics. The former is primarily the study of how countries can advance their economies. The latter is the study of the economic development process particularly in low-income countries.Growth is usually calculated in real terms – i.e., inflation-adjusted terms – to eliminate the distorting effect of inflation on the price of goods produced. Measurement of economic growth uses national income accounting. Since economic growth is measured as the annual percent change of gross domestic product (GDP), it has all the advantages and drawbacks of that measure.