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On direct and indirect probabilistic reasoning in legal proof1
On direct and indirect probabilistic reasoning in legal proof1

... Verheij 2003; Prakken 2004) negative answers to each of these three questions generate undercutting defeaters to arguments that use the scheme. If these undercutting defeaters are not themselves defeated, they prevent the drawing of inferences from the testimony. This process can be formalised in ar ...
The Difference Between Selection and Drift: A Reply
The Difference Between Selection and Drift: A Reply

... purposes.) A process is deterministic then if there is such a theory that truly describes it. No biologist I know thinks of natural selection as deterministic in this sense. When they do use the term ‘deterministic’ to describe natural selection they do so to contrast natural selection with random d ...
Children`s understanding of probability
Children`s understanding of probability

Programming Language Techniques for Cryptographic Proofs⋆
Programming Language Techniques for Cryptographic Proofs⋆

... the domain and range of the function) is {0, 1}ℓ. No matter what strategy the adversary follows, due to the birthday problem, after roughly 2ℓ/2 queries to the oracle she will be able to tell in which scenario she is with a high probability. If the oracle is a random function, a collision is almost ...
Solutions to Exercises Marked with sG from the book Introduction to
Solutions to Exercises Marked with sG from the book Introduction to

... (a) This is true by symmetry. The first ball is equally likely to be any of the g + r balls, so the probability of it being green is g/(g + r). But the second ball is also equally likely to be any of the g + r balls (there aren’t certain balls that enjoy being chosen second and others that have an a ...
On the Unfortunate Problem of the Nonobservability
On the Unfortunate Problem of the Nonobservability

Mathematical Statistics
Mathematical Statistics

... Functions, John Wiley and Sons, 1950). The basic idea can be described as follows. Assume that experimentations are carried out on a random phenomenon, i.e., we have random observations X = (X1 , X2 , . . . ) on a random variable having a distribution function F . Usually F is unknown, but it is ass ...
Combining Facts and Expert Opinion in Analytical Models via
Combining Facts and Expert Opinion in Analytical Models via

Stochastic Processes
Stochastic Processes

Probability - Princeton High School
Probability - Princeton High School

Equal Shares - cloudfront.net
Equal Shares - cloudfront.net

The space complexity of approximating the frequency moments Noga Alon Yossi Matias
The space complexity of approximating the frequency moments Noga Alon Yossi Matias

A version of this paper appeared in Statistical Science (vol
A version of this paper appeared in Statistical Science (vol

... start with the facts, you will say. Start with the fact that the coin lands heads half the time. This is why even odds are fair. Don't start with some metaphysical idea about fair price and try to deduce facts from your metaphysics. The pioneers of probability theory did not take this hardnosed empi ...
Conditioning using conditional expectations: The Borel
Conditioning using conditional expectations: The Borel

Probability and Statistics
Probability and Statistics

n - Cengage
n - Cengage

... way that an event can occur. When it is possible, this is the best way to solve a counting problem. Some events, however, can occur in so many different ways that it is not feasible to write out the entire list. In such cases, you must rely on formulas and counting principles. The most important of ...
Uniformly Efficient Importance Sampling for the Tail
Uniformly Efficient Importance Sampling for the Tail

CHAPTER 8 SECTION 1: CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
CHAPTER 8 SECTION 1: CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY

Unawareness, Priors and Posteriors
Unawareness, Priors and Posteriors

Almost Optimal Lower Bounds for Small Depth Circuits Warning
Almost Optimal Lower Bounds for Small Depth Circuits Warning

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes with Reward
Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes with Reward

Level 7 - Summer Solutions
Level 7 - Summer Solutions

Pseudo-Bayesian Updating
Pseudo-Bayesian Updating

PDF
PDF

... now possible to measure of the expression levels of thousands of genes in one experiment [12] (where each gene is a random variable in our model [6]), but we typically have only a few hundred of experiments (each of which is a single data case). In cases, like this, where the amount of data is small ...
Argmax over Continuous Indices of Random Variables An Approach
Argmax over Continuous Indices of Random Variables An Approach

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