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Junior Sophisters Monetary and Welfare Economics
Junior Sophisters Monetary and Welfare Economics

... 60% of all farms in that county are owned by persons over 50 years old. Of all farms in the county exceeding 160 acres, 55% are owned by persons over 50 years old. (a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen farm in this county both exceeds 160 acres and is owned by a person over 50 years old ...
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... I Assume these events are independent (that is, liking math and liking cheeseburgers are unrelated). What is the probability that someone polled liked both math and cheeseburgers? liked math and disliked ...
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... Since you know the sample space for the experiment is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 6} and there is only one way to roll a two, you reply “The probability that a 2 was rolled is 16 .” Now suppose the experiment is repeated, but this time the person rolling the die tells you that an even number has been rolled ...
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... The event of a negative test given that a person does have the disease has odds 10 to 48, so the probability is 10/58 = 0.17. This is the probability of a “false negative” or in other words, it is the probability of falsely declaring that the person does not have the disease. ...
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Ars Conjectandi



Ars Conjectandi (Latin for The Art of Conjecturing) is a book on combinatorics and mathematical probability written by Jakob Bernoulli and published in 1713, eight years after his death, by his nephew, Niklaus Bernoulli. The seminal work consolidated, apart from many combinatorial topics, many central ideas in probability theory, such as the very first version of the law of large numbers: indeed, it is widely regarded as the founding work of that subject. It also addressed problems that today are classified in the twelvefold way, and added to the subjects; consequently, it has been dubbed an important historical landmark in not only probability but all combinatorics by a plethora of mathematical historians. The importance of this early work had a large impact on both contemporary and later mathematicians; for example, Abraham de Moivre.Bernoulli wrote the text between 1684 and 1689, including the work of mathematicians such as Christiaan Huygens, Gerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat, and Blaise Pascal. He incorporated fundamental combinatorial topics such as his theory of permutations and combinations—the aforementioned problems from the twelvefold way—as well as those more distantly connected to the burgeoning subject: the derivation and properties of the eponymous Bernoulli numbers, for instance. Core topics from probability, such as expected value, were also a significant portion of this important work.
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