New Lecture Note for Chapter 1
... In a study, we collect information—data—from individuals. Individuals
can be people, animals, plants, or any object of interest.
A variable is any characteristic of an individual. A variable varies among
individuals.
Example: age, height, blood pressure, ethnicity, leaf length, first language
...
Central Tendency and Variability
... other data seem to be gathering around. If we represent our distribution
visually, the central tendency is usually at or near the highest point of
the histogram or polygon.
2. There are three different kinds of central tendency: mean, median, and
mode.
3. The mean is the arithmetic average of our sc ...
Summarizing Measured Data
... Distribution information is required if the summarized
mean and variability have to be used in simulations or
analytical models
...
Regression toward the mean
In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first. To avoid making incorrect inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data.The conditions under which regression toward the mean occurs depend on the way the term is mathematically defined. Sir Francis Galton first observed the phenomenon in the context of simple linear regression of data points. Galton developed the following model: pellets fall through a quincunx forming a normal distribution centered directly under their entrance point. These pellets could then be released down into a second gallery (corresponding to a second measurement occasion. Galton then asked the reverse question ""from where did these pellets come?"" ""The answer was not 'on average directly above'. Rather it was 'on average, more towards the middle', for the simple reason that there were more pellets above it towards the middle that could wander left than there were in the left extreme that could wander to the right, inwards"" (p 477) A less restrictive approach is possible. Regression towards the mean can be defined for any bivariate distribution with identical marginal distributions. Two such definitions exist. One definition accords closely with the common usage of the term “regression towards the mean”. Not all such bivariate distributions show regression towards the mean under this definition. However, all such bivariate distributions show regression towards the mean under the other definition.Historically, what is now called regression toward the mean has also been called reversion to the mean and reversion to mediocrity.In finance, the term mean reversion has a different meaning. Jeremy Siegel uses it to describe a financial time series in which ""returns can be very unstable in the short run but very stable in the long run."" More quantitatively, it is one in which the standard deviation of average annual returns declines faster than the inverse of the holding period, implying that the process is not a random walk, but that periods of lower returns are systematically followed by compensating periods of higher returns, in seasonal businesses for example.