Download Region Case Profile of Future Conflict and

Assignment 3
Region Case Profile of Future Conflict and Climate Change
Format:
Part 1.
Part 2.
A.
B.
Part 3.
A.
B.
Part 4.
A.
B.
C.
Part 5.
Part 6.
Describe a Region and a Time
Socio-Economic Profile
The Demographic Landscape
The Economy
Environmental and Climate Profile
The State of the Climate
Localized Environmental Impacts Due to Human Causes
Conflict Profile and the Role of Climate in It
History of Region Conflict
Socio-Economic Forecasts that May Create the Structure for Violence
The Role of Climate Change in Future Conflict
Relevant ICE Cases
Policy Recommendations
Background:
This assignment intends to put you in the role of an analyst tasked with providing a future
assessment of conflict and climate change. Your goal is to provide a long-term planning guide
on a region of the world at a place in time. You should focus on events and trends that have a
real probability of occurring. No Klingons, Silver Surfers, Star Troopers, Terminators, Aliens,
asteroid collisions, time machines, Eloi, or Martians should be part of your forecast conditions.
You can of course use reputable sources and their forecasts. The result is not science fiction but
rather science fact.
You will find a map of the regions below and brief descriptions of the profiles as I see them
(from my book, Table III-9). There is also a map of the world’s regions. The table should serve
as a guide, not as an authoritative source, to the characteristics of places you might consider.
Much of this exercise will be in finding information specific to your chosen region. Equally
important is for you to form logical premises from this information to create a profile of the
future. It is not a case study focusing on a single event, but rather an informed process of both
deduction and induction. You should back up any forecast assertions with the proper
authoritative citation. Naturally, the forecasts I have shown you should be considered reputable.
Use a causal loop diagram and maps to support your analysis.
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The Assignment
The report should be roughly 15 pages in length, typed in double space, including graphics.
Report your findings using the following format.
Part 1.
Describe a Region and a Time
Identify the region precisely. What countries and areas within them are included? You do have
some leeway to construct an area that is organic and thus not completely limited to the
rectangular profiles that are shown.
Provide an assessment for one IPCC climate region and the likely state of climate change and
violent conflict for the year 2030 or 2050. I offer two dates because differing types of hot and
cold wars may have differing time horizons in their onset. Melting ice in the Arctic may be an
issue by 2030, but desertification in Africa may not appear until 2050.
Part 2.
A.
Socio-Economic Profile
The Demographic Landscape
Demographic forecasts are widely available and are reliable. Provide and discuss population
forecasts for the country. Break down the data as much as possible. What parts of the region
will see the demographic changes? What will be the distribution of age look like? What is the
level of literacy?
B.
The Economy
Provide and discuss economic forecasts for the country. Again, consider derivative indicators of
consequence, such as the rate of economic growth, changes in industrial composition, structure
of imports or exports, and others.
Possible Data Sources:
Part 3.
A.
World Bank, IMF, United Nations, U.S. Census Bureau
Environmental and Climate Profile
The State of the Climate
Describe the state of climate conditions in your chosen year. Focus on temperature,
precipitation, and the possibility of extreme events. Extrapolate from this and other research to
allow any conclusions of how the change in climate may affect give socio-economic indicators.
It may reduce incomes or add to the mortality rate.
Possible Data Sources: IPCC forecasts, World Resources Institute, U.S. EPA, World Bank
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B.
Localized Environmental Impacts Due to Human Causes
Changes in climate may also compound due to human influences and produce additional
localized climate impacts. For example, clearing of tropical rainforests will probably add to
higher temperatures and perhaps drops in precipitation. Population growth alone may cause
localized climate impacts as grasslands convert to farmland. Increased demand for farmland
may accelerate the decline of marginal areas to denuded ones. In Arctic areas, the development
of cities inevitably leads to buildings and roads and create heat islands.
Possible Data Sources: IPCC forecasts, World Resources Institute, U.S. EPA, World Bank
Part 4.
A.
Conflict Profile and the Role of Climate in It
History of Region Conflict
Provide a history of the conflict for the region. There are data sources for casualties, but you will
also need to find relevant historical studies that add context to the conflict and an explanation of
the dynamics.
Possible Data Sources:
Correlates of War:
http://www.correlatesofwar.org/
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2009/02/02A
Uppsala Conflict Data Base:
http://www.pcr.uu.se/database/index.php.
Project Ploughshares:
http://www.wcc-coe.org/wcc/what/jpc/echoes/echoes-18-05.html
Failed States Index, Fund for
Peace:http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=99&It
emid=140
Datasets on Violence, World Bank
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/EXT
CPR/0,,contentMDK:22488819~menuPK:6835249~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:4
07740,00.html
B.
Socio-Economic Forecasts that May Create the Structure for Violence
Draw any relevant findings that suggest the possibility of conflict from the forecasts provided in
Part 1. The socio-economic data may show an increasing unemployment rate due to high
population growth rates, declining arability in agricultural production, or different rates of
income growth for differing internal ethnic or political groups.
Possible Data Sources:
C.
All of the above and below
The Role of Climate Change in Future Conflict
3
Take the history and the socio-economic forecasts from above and add climate change to the mix
of possible sources of social instability. The assertions can point either to direct or to indirect
means by which climate change may spark or accelerate violent conflict.
1.
Give the likelihood of violent conflict on a scale of 1-10, where 10 is 100 percent
probability.
2.
Give the likely impact of climate change on the conflict on a scale of 1-10.
3.
Give the likely level of violent conflict on a scale of 1-3. Include civilian and military
deaths.
a.
A score of 1 indicates annual deaths of more 100 and less than 1,000. Assume
your chosen year is an average year.
b.
A score of 2 indicates annual deaths of more 1,000 and less than 10,000.
c.
A score of 3 indicates annual deaths of more 10,000. Assume your chosen year is
an average year.
Possible Data Sources:
Correlates of War, Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute, CIA, Failed States Index, U.S. Department of Defense
Part 5.
Relevant ICE Cases
Include analysis from the ICE Expert System to suggest relevant cases for comparison and
contrast. Use the search criteria as the basis but you can include key word search results too.
http://win14.american.edu/ice/search_ice.cfm
Search by “continent” and “region” to start with to find other cases relevant to the region. The
more data points you identify the more specific the results. Provide a list of region cases,
including only those that might have relevance for considering for forecast and report. Think
how you might break these cases down with a further analysis. For example, is there a common
type of trigger for conflict in this region?
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Part 6.
Policy Recommendations
Propose a solution, in brief, that would could towards solving this problem. This could be a law,
a technology breakthrough, a treaty, or other mechanism.
Create the outlines of an effort to solve a climate-induced conflict problem that solves a problem
in the region. Be specific about the program to the extent possible. It can be as small as a
program focused on a limited area or one that has global implications. Your viewpoint may be
of any representative of the instrument, so that includes that of a policy-maker, military
strategist, development specialist, conflict mediator, or other professions.
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Table III- Table 3-9: Regions and Impacts
IPCC Area
Climate
Conflict
Climate Threat
Future Conflict
Trends
Trends (a)
Types
1. Alaska
High
Low
Habitat change
International
2. ECGI (b)
High
Low
Habitat change
International
3. West Coast
Medium
Low
4. Plains
Medium
Low
5. East Coast
Medium
Low
6. C. Amer.+Carib
Unclear
Medium
Drying
Civil
7. North S. Amer.
Unclear
Medium
Drying
Civil
8. South S Amer.
Unclear
Low
9. NW Europe
High
Low
Habitat change
10. Mediterranean
High
High
Drying
11. Sahara
Medium
High
Drying
International
12. West Africa
Low
High
Civil
13. South Africa
Low
High
Civil
14. East Africa
Low
High
Civil
15. South Asia
Medium
Medium
16. Central Asia
High
Medium
Habitat change
International
17. N Eurasia
High
Low
Habitat change
International
18. Himalaya
High
Low
Habitat change
International
19. NE Asia
Medium
Low
20. SE Asia
Low
Medium
21. N. Australia
Unclear
Low
Sea level
22. S. Australia
Unclear
Low
23. Antarctic/Arctic
Medium
Low
International
(a) Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Base, http://www.pcr.uu.se/database/index.php
(b) ECGI includes Eastern Canada, Greenland, and Iceland
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World Land Regions (IPCC)
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