Download Consequences of Climate Change and Variability in the for a Vulnerability Assessment

Consequences of Climate
Change and Variability in the
Rocky Mountains – The Need
for a Vulnerability Assessment
Framework
Roger A. Pielke Sr., University of Colorado at Boulder
Colorado College State of the Rockies Conference
Colorado Springs, Colorado, April 13, 2006
IPCC Perspective
Estimated
Estimated radiative
radiative forcings
forcings since
since preindustrial
preindustrial times
times for
for the
the Earth
Earth and
and Troposphere
Troposphere system
system (TOA)
(TOA) radiative
radiative forcing
forcing
with
with adjusted
adjusted stratospheric
stratospheric temperatures).
temperatures). The
The height
height of
of the
the rectangular
rectangular bar
bar denotes
denotes aa central
central or
or best
best estimate
estimate of
of the
the
forcing,
while
each
vertical
line
is
an
estimate
of
the
uncertainty
range
associated
with
the
forcing
guided
by
the
forcing, while each vertical line is an estimate of the uncertainty range associated with the forcing guided by the
spread
spread in
in the
the published
published record
record and
and physical
physical understanding,
understanding, and
and with
with no
no statistical
statistical connotation.
connotation. Each
Each forcing
forcing agent
agent is
is
associated
associated with
with aa level
level of
of scientific
scientific understanding,
understanding, which
which is
is based
based on
on an
an assessment
assessment of
of the
the nature
nature of
of assumptions
assumptions
involved,
the
uncertainties
prevailing
about
the
processes
that
govern
the
forcing,
and
the
resulting
confidence
involved, the uncertainties prevailing about the processes that govern the forcing, and the resulting confidence in
in the
the
numerical
numerical values
values of
of the
the estimate.
estimate. On
On the
the vertical
vertical axis,
axis, the
the direction
direction of
of expected
expected surface
surface temperature
temperature change
change due
due to
to
each
each radiative
radiative forcing
forcing is
is indicated
indicated by
by the
the labels
labels “warming”
“warming” and
and “cooling.”
“cooling.” From:
From: IPCC
IPCC 2001:
2001: Summary
Summary for
for
Policymakers.
Policymakers. A
A Report
Report of
of the
the Working
Working Group
Group 11 of
of the
the Intergovernmental
Intergovernmental Panel
Panel on
on Climate
Climate Change.
Change.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf
National
National Research
Research Council,
Council, 2005:
2005:
Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing of
of Climate
Climate Change:
Change:
Expanding
Expanding the
the Concept
Concept and
and Addressing
Addressing
Uncertainties,
Uncertainties, Committee
Committee on
on Radiative
Radiative
Forcing
Forcing Effects
Effects on
on Climate,
Climate, Climate
Climate
Research
Research
Committee,
Committee, 224
224 pp.
pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
NRC 2005 Perspective
Breath of Fresh Air
From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept
and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research
Committee, 224 pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change:
Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing
Effects on Climate, Climate Research Committee, 224 pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
From: National Research Council, 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept
and Addressing Uncertainties, Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, Climate Research
Committee, 224 pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
Not Included Climate Forcings, e.g.,
• Land-use change as it affects transpiration,
physical evaporation and sensible heat fluxes
• biogeochemical forcing due to increased CO22
• biochemical forcing due to nitrogen deposition
• biogeochemical forcing due to changes in the
direct/diffuse solar irradiance through aerosols
• effect
of
anthropogenic
aerosols
on
precipitation efficiency
These effects alter not only the global radiative
fluxes but the regional structure of spatial
heating and cooling.
Example of a
pyrocumulus cloud
(copyright 2001, Axel
Thielmann).
Example of industrial
emissions from a
smokestack
From http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Laboratory/Aerosol/Images/anthro_smokestack.jpg
GOES-12
GOES-12 imagery
imagery over
over the
the northern
northern East
East Pacific
Pacific Ocean
Ocean on
on 10
10 February
February 2003.
2003. Particles
Particles in
in the
the exhaust
exhaust
plumes
of
ships
tend
to
act
as
cloud
condensation
nuclei
(CCN),
creating
streaks
consisting
of
plumes of ships tend to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), creating streaks consisting of smaller
smaller
cloud
droplets
within
the
pre-existing
cloud
deck.
The
resulting
changes
in
the
emissivity
of
the
marine
cloud droplets within the pre-existing cloud deck. The resulting changes in the emissivity of the marine layer
layer
stratocumulus
stratocumulus are
are easily
easily detected
detected using
using the
the 3.9
3.9 micrometer
micrometer (shortwave)IR
(shortwave)IR channel
channel data.
data. The
The ship
ship tracks
tracks
exhibit
exhibit aa colder
colder 3.9
3.9 micrometer
micrometer Infrared
Infrared (IR)
(IR) brightness
brightness temperature
temperature at
at night
night (above,
(above, darker
darker blue
blue
enhancement),
enhancement), while
while during
during daylight
daylight hours
hours these
these features
features exhibit
exhibit aa warmer
warmer brightness
brightness temperature
temperature (below,
(below,
darker
darker gray
gray enhancement)
enhancement) due
due to
to this
this channel's
channel's sensitivity
sensitivity to
to the
the component
component of
of reflected
reflected sunlight
sunlight (Image
(Image
courtesy
of
the
Cooperative
Institute
for
Research
in
the
Atmosphere
website
original
imagery
from
courtesy of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere website original imagery from the
the
NOAA/NESDIS
NOAA/NESDIS Forecast
Forecast Products
Products Development
Development Team.)
Team.)
Atmospheric
Atmospheric carbon
carbon dioxide
dioxide record
record from
from Mauna
Mauna Loa.
Loa. C.D.
C.D. Keeling
Keeling and
and T.P.
T.P.
Whorf,
Whorf, Carbon
Carbon Dioxide
Dioxide Research
Research Group,
Group, Scripps
Scripps Institution
Institution of
of
Oceanography,
University
of
California,
La
Jolla,
California
92093-0444.
Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California 92093-0444.
Period
Period of
of Record,
Record, 1958-2004
1958-2004
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf
U.S.
U.S. Geological
Geological Survey
Survey land-cover
land-cover classes
classes for
for pre-1900’s
pre-1900’s natural
natural conditions
conditions (left)
(left)
and
and 1993
1993 land-use
land-use patterns
patterns (right).
(right).
From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.,
C.H., Pielke
Pielke Sr.
Sr. R.A.,
R.A., Steyaert,
Steyaert, L.T.,
L.T., 2003.
2003. Crop
Crop freezes
freezes and
and land-use
land-use
change
change in
in Florida.
Florida. Nature,
Nature, 426,
426, 29-30.
29-30.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-277.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-277.pdf
What is the Accepted View on the Ability of Climate Models to Make
Skillful Multi-Decadal Regional Predictions?
1. From page 145 of the 2006 Response to the Public Comment of the CCSP Report
Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1 ‘Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps
for Understanding and Reconciling Differences’
“Owing to natural internal variability, models cannot be expected to reproduce regional
patterns of trend over a period as short as 20 years from changes of radiative forcings alone.”
2. From MacCracken, Michael, Joel Smith and Anthony C. Janetos, 2004. Reliable regional
climate model not yet on horizon. Nature Vol. 429, No 6993, p. 699, June 17, 2004.
“The US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and
Change (USNA) - in which we were involved-did not attempt to provide regional or even
national predictions of climate change.”
Later in the letter in Nature, they conclude with,
“We strongly agree that much more reliable regional climate simulations and analyses are
needed. However, at present,...such simulations are more aspiration than reality.”
3. From the February 2004 issue of Scientific American Magazine, Jim Hansen has an
interesting quote on page 24 in ‘Defusing the Global Warming Time Bomb’
“It will not be possible to optimize strategies for dealing with global warming until all important
climate forcings, including carbonaceous aerosols, have been well quantified.”
Diagnosing a Global Averaged
Surface Temperature Has Major
Unrecognized Problems
Missing Land - Atmosphere
Surface Data Issues
•
•
•
•
Moist Enthalpy
Microclimate Exposure
Vertical Lapse Rate Trends
Uncertainty in the Homogenization
Adjustments
Moist enthalpy provides a
proper measure of surface air
heat content, which is not
provided by air temperature
alone.
TE=H/Cp
H = Cp T + L q
Hourly
Hourly data
data from
from automated
automated weather
weather stations
stations at
at Fort
Fort Collins
Collins and
and DIA
DIA are
are used
used to
to pick
pick and
and
calculate
calculate the
the highest
highest air
air temperature
temperature and
and effective
effective temperature
temperature for
for each
each day
day in
in July
July 2005.
2005. The
The
average
high
air
temperature
is
higher
at
DIA,
while
the
average
high
effective
temperature
average high air temperature is higher at DIA, while the average high effective temperature is
is
higher
higher at
at Fort
Fort Collins.
Collins. From
From Pielke,
Pielke, R.A.
R.A. Sr.,
Sr., K.
K. Wolter,
Wolter, O.
O. Bliss,
Bliss, N.
N. Doesken,
Doesken, and
and B.
B. McNoldy,
McNoldy,
2005:
2005: July
July 2005
2005 heat
heat wave:
wave: How
How unusual
unusual was
was it.
it. National
National Weather
Weather Digest,
Digest, submitted.
submitted.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-313.pdf
Microclimate Exposure
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at
Lamar, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the
exposures viewed from the sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. From Davey, C.A., and
R.A. Pielke Sr., 2005: Microclimate exposures of surface-based weather stations - implications for
the assessment of long-term temperature trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4, 497–504.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics for the NWS COOP station near
Rocky Ford, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the
exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. (CRSCotton Region Shelter). From Davey, C.A., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2005: Microclimate exposures of
surface-based weather stations - implications for the assessment of long-term temperature
trends.
Bull.
Amer.
Meteor.
Soc.,
4,
497–504.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf
Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at
Las Animas, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the
exposures viewed from the sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. From Davey, C.A., and
R.A. Pielke Sr., 2005: Microclimate exposures of surface-based weather stations - implications
for the assessment of long-term temperature trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4, 497–504.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-274.pdf
Importance of Regional Climate
Change Relative to Global Average
Climate Change
The 2005 National Research Council report concluded that:
"regional variations in radiative forcing may have
important regional and global climate implications that
are not resolved by the concept of global mean radiative
forcing."
And furthermore:
"Regional diabatic heating can cause atmospheric
teleconnections that influence regional climate
thousands of kilometers away from the point of forcing."
This regional diabatic heating produces temperature
increases or decreases in the layer-averaged regional
troposphere. This necessarily alters the regional
pressure fields and thus the wind pattern. This pressure
and wind pattern then affects the pressure and wind
patterns at large distances from the region of the forcing
which we refer to as teleconnections.
(a) and (b) show recent trends in annual, 300 mb winds from the NCEP/NCAR
and ECMWF40 Reanalyses respectively. Significant trends at the 90 and 95%
levels are thickly contoured.
Role of Landscape Change on
Climate in Colorado
Spring
Spring mean
mean minimum
minimum temperatures
temperatures
(degrees
(degrees F)
F) for
for 15
15 March-30
March-30 April
April for
for
eastern
eastern Colorado
Colorado locations.
locations. From
From Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr.,
R.A.,
R.A., T.
T. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, W.
W. Parton,
Parton, J.
J. Moeny,
Moeny, N.
N.
Doesken,
Doesken, L.
L. Schell,
Schell, and
and K.
K. Redmond,
Redmond, 2000:
2000:
Spatial
Spatial representativeness
representativeness of
of temperature
temperature
measurements
measurements from
from aa single
single site.
site. Bull.
Bull.
Amer.
Amer. Meteor.
Meteor. Soc.,
Soc., 81,
81, 826-830.
826-830.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/
pdf/R-221.pdf
pdf/R-221.pdf
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., T.
T. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, L.
L. Schell,
Schell, W.
W. Parton,
Parton, N.
N. Doesken,
Doesken, K.
K. Redmond,
Redmond, J.
J. Moeny,
Moeny, T.
T.
McKee,
McKee, and
and T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, 2002:
2002: Problems
Problems in
in evaluating
evaluating regional
regional and
and local
local trends
trends in
in temperature:
temperature:
An
An example
example from
from eastern
eastern Colorado,
Colorado, USA.
USA. Int.
Int. J.
J. Climatol.,
Climatol., 22,
22, 421-434.
421-434.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-234.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-234.pdf
From:
From: Segal,
Segal, M.,
M., R.
R. Avissar,
Avissar, M.C.
M.C. McCumber,
McCumber, and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, 1988:
1988:
Evaluation
Evaluation of
of vegetation
vegetation effects
effects on
on the
the generation
generation and
and modification
modification of
of
mesoscale
mesoscale circulations.
circulations. J.
J. Atmos.
Atmos. Sci.,
Sci., 45,
45, 2268-2292.
2268-2292.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-84.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-84.pdf
From:
From: Segal,
Segal, M.,
M., W.
W. Schreiber,
Schreiber, G.
G. Kallos,
Kallos, R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, J.R.
J.R. Garratt,
Garratt, J.
J. Weaver,
Weaver, A.
A. Rodi,
Rodi,
and
and J.
J. Wilson,
Wilson, 1989:
1989: The
The impact
impact of
of crop
crop areas
areas in
in northeast
northeast Colorado
Colorado on
on midsummer
midsummer
mesoscale
mesoscale thermal
thermal circulations.
circulations. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 117,
117, 809-825.
809-825.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-88.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-88.pdf
From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and
soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
From:
From: Chase,
Chase, T.N.,
T.N., R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, Sr.,
Sr., T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, J.S.
J.S. Baron,
Baron, and
and T.J.
T.J. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, 1999:
1999:
Potential
Potential impacts
impacts on
on Colorado
Colorado Rocky
Rocky Mountain
Mountain weather
weather due
due to
to land
land use
use changes
changes on
on the
the
adjacent
adjacent Great
Great Plains.
Plains. J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., 104,
104, 16673-16690.
16673-16690.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
From:
From: Chase,
Chase, T.N.,
T.N., R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, Sr.,
Sr., T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, J.S.
J.S. Baron,
Baron, and
and T.J.
T.J. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, 1999:
1999:
Potential
Potential impacts
impacts on
on Colorado
Colorado Rocky
Rocky Mountain
Mountain weather
weather due
due to
to land
land use
use changes
changes on
on the
the
adjacent
adjacent Great
Great Plains.
Plains. J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., 104,
104, 16673-16690.
16673-16690.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
From:
From: Chase,
Chase, T.N.,
T.N., R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, Sr.,
Sr., T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, J.S.
J.S. Baron,
Baron, and
and T.J.
T.J. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, 1999:
1999:
Potential
Potential impacts
impacts on
on Colorado
Colorado Rocky
Rocky Mountain
Mountain weather
weather due
due to
to land
land use
use changes
changes on
on the
the
adjacent
adjacent Great
Great Plains.
Plains. J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., 104,
104, 16673-16690.
16673-16690.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
From:
From: Chase,
Chase, T.N.,
T.N., R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, Sr.,
Sr., T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, J.S.
J.S. Baron,
Baron, and
and T.J.
T.J. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, 1999:
1999:
Potential
Potential impacts
impacts on
on Colorado
Colorado Rocky
Rocky Mountain
Mountain weather
weather due
due to
to land
land use
use changes
changes on
on the
the
adjacent
adjacent Great
Great Plains.
Plains. J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., 104,
104, 16673-16690.
16673-16690.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
From
From Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, T.J.,
T.J., T.N.
T.N. Chase,
Chase, R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, and
and J.
J. Baron,
Baron, 1998:
1998: Evidence
Evidence that
that local
local
land
land use
use practices
practices influence
influence regional
regional climate
climate and
and vegetation
vegetation patterns
patterns in
in adjacent
adjacent natural
natural areas.
areas. Global
Global
Change
Change Biology,
Biology, 4,
4, 495-504.
495-504. http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-198.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-198.pdf
From:
From: Chase,
Chase, T.N.,
T.N., R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, Sr.,
Sr., T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, J.S.
J.S. Baron,
Baron, and
and T.J.
T.J. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, 1999:
1999:
Potential
Potential impacts
impacts on
on Colorado
Colorado Rocky
Rocky Mountain
Mountain weather
weather due
due to
to land
land use
use changes
changes on
on the
the
adjacent
adjacent Great
Great Plains.
Plains. J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., 104,
104, 16673-16690.
16673-16690.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
From:
From: Chase,
Chase, T.N.,
T.N., R.A.
R.A. Pielke,
Pielke, Sr.,
Sr., T.G.F.
T.G.F. Kittel,
Kittel, J.S.
J.S. Baron,
Baron, and
and T.J.
T.J. Stohlgren,
Stohlgren, 1999:
1999:
Potential
Potential impacts
impacts on
on Colorado
Colorado Rocky
Rocky Mountain
Mountain weather
weather due
due to
to land
land use
use changes
changes on
on the
the
adjacent
adjacent Great
Great Plains.
Plains. J.
J. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.,
Res., 104,
104, 16673-16690.
16673-16690.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-178.pdf
From: Pielke, R.A., T.J. Lee, J.H. Copeland, J.L. Eastman, C.L. Ziegler, and C.A. Finley,
1997: Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather and climate simulations.
Ecological Applications, 7, 3-21.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-175.pdf
The Future of Climate
Science
Climate is an integration of physical, chemical and
biological processes
Climate involves the oceans, atmosphere, land
surface, and continental ice
We need to move beyond the current narrow focus of
climate change as equivalent to “global warming.”
Skillful multidecadal climate forecasts have not
been demonstrated
An inversion of the IPCC Assessment Procedure
is needed
We need an approach that is more inclusive
and scientifically defensible
An Alternate Paradigm is
Needed
A Focus on
Vulnerability
Schematic
Schematic of
of the
the relation
relation of
of water
water resource
resource vulnerability
vulnerability to
to the
the spectrum
spectrum of
of the
the
environmental
environmental forcings
forcings and
and feedbacks
feedbacks (adapted
(adapted from
from [3]).
[3]). The
The arrows
arrows denote
denote
nonlinear
nonlinear interactions
interactions between
between and
and within
within natural
natural and
and human
human forcings.
forcings. From:
From:
Pielke,
R.A.
Sr.,
2004:
Discussion
Forum:
A
broader
perspective
on
climate
Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change
change
is
needed.
IGBP
Newsletter,
59,
16-19.
is needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
April
April 11 snowpack
snowpack percent
percent of
of average
average for
for the
the state
state of
of Colorado
Colorado for
for years
years
1968
1968 through
through 2006.
2006.
fftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/monthly/aprstatetime.gif
tp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/monthly/aprstatetime.gif
Resource Specific Impact Level with Respect to
Water Resources - June 2004
¾ Question
If you were given 100 million dollars to spend on environmental benefits
in Colorado,
Colorado, where
where would
would you
you use
use that
that money?
money?
1. subsidies for alternative energy
2. purchasing wilderness areas (e.g., through the Nature Conservancy)
3. building/enlarging water impoundments
4. building pipelines to transport water over large distances
5. purchasing open spaces in growing urban areas
6. funding additional mass transit
¾ Where should this money come from?
1. carbon usage tax
2. mileage driven tax
3. lottery
4. tax on large private vehicles
5. state income tax increase
6. property tax increase
Conclusions
1. The needed focus for the study of climate change and variability is
on the regional and local scales. Global and zonally-averaged
climate metrics would only be important to the extent that they
provide useful information on these space scales.
2. Global and zonally-averaged surface temperature trend
assessments, besides having major difficulties in terms of how this
metric is diagnosed and analyzed, do not provide significant
information on climate change and variability on the regional and
local scales.
3. Global warming is not equivalent to climate change. Significant,
societally important climate change, due to both natural- and
human- climate forcings, can occur without any global warming or
cooling.
4. The spatial pattern of ocean heat content change is the appropriate
metric to assess climate system heat changes including global
warming.
5.
6.
7.
8.
In terms of climate change and variability on the regional and local
scale, the IPCC Reports, the CCSP Report on surface and
tropospheric temperature trends, and the U.S. National
Assessment have overstated the role of the radiative effect of the
anthropogenic increase of CO2 relative to the role of the diversity
of other human climate forcing on global warming, and more
generally, on climate variability and change.
Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at
predicting climate change and variability on multi-decadal time
scales.
Attempts to significantly influence regional and local-scale climate
based on controlling CO2 emissions alone is an inadequate policy
for this purpose.
A vulnerability paradigm, focused on regional and local societal
and environmental resources of importance, is a more inclusive,
useful, and scientifically robust framework to interact with
policymakers, than is the focus on global multi-decadal climate
predictions which are downscaled to the regional and local scales.
The vulnerability paradigm permits the evaluation of the entire
spectrum of risks associated with different social and
environmental threats, including climate variability and change.
PowerPoint Presentation Prepared by
Dallas Jean Staley
Research Coordinator and Webmaster
Colorado State University
Department of Atmospheric Science
Fort Collins, CO 80526
View or download this presentation
online at:
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/presentations/PPT-61.pdf
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/presentations/PPT-61.pdf
Weblog of the
Roger A. Pielke Sr.
Research Group
http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu/
Pielke Research Website
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/
Selected papers:
Rial, J., R.A. Pielke Sr., M. Beniston, M. Claussen, J. Canadell, P. Cox, H. Held, N. de NobletDucoudre, R. Prinn, J. Reynolds, and J.D. Salas, 2004: Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical
thresholds within the Earth's climate system. Climatic Change, 65, 11-38.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-260.pdf
¾
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the
prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39, 151-177.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
¾
Pielke, R.A. Sr., J.O. Adegoke, T.N. Chase, C.H. Marshall, T. Matsui, and D. Niyogi, 2006: A
new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in the climate system and in climate
change. Agric. Forest Meteor., Special Issue, accepted.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/R-295.pdf
¾
Pielke, R.A. Sr., 2004: Discussion Forum: A broader perspective on climate change is
needed. IGBP Newsletter, 59, 16-19.
http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
¾
National Research Council, 2005: Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the
concept and addressing uncertainties. Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate
Change, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,
Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.,
http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309095069/html/
¾
¾
Kabat, P., Claussen, M., Dirmeyer, P.A., J.H.C. Gash, L. Bravo de Guenni, M. Meybeck, R.A.
Pielke Sr., C.J. Vorosmarty, R.W.A. Hutjes, and S. Lutkemeier, Editors, 2004: Vegetation,
water, humans and the climate: A new perspective on an interactive system. Springer, Berlin,
Global Change - The IGBP Series, 566 pp.