Download – Joint International Conference Climate change and adaptation

Joint International Conference
Technologically modified environment – environmentally
modified technology
Climate change and adaptation
– why technology is highly needed –
Christoph Kottmeier
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Climate change …
IPCC AR4, 2007: Increase in global air and ocean
temperatures, melting of snow and ice and rising
sea level now clearly indicate a significant
warming of the Earth, which is to a large extent
due to human interference.
Changes in precipitation patterns, droughts,
storms, and flooding are probable. Impacts of
changes in mean and extreme events will affect
modern societies in many respect.
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Climate change … and societal change
… will coincide with the demands of a
• rapidly increasing population in many
Sri Lanka,
2001
countries,
• needing food, energy, water, health care
River Rhine, Oct. 1, 2009, Speyer
Dresden,
August 2002
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Climate change … and societal change
… will coincide
• with increasing public and private properties
• changing vulnerability of technological
infrastructure (buildings, traffic systems, energy
and water supply …), and
• a highly automized and interdependent
information society in developed countries
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Pictures: courtesy B.
Ruck, IFH
Global perspective
Air temperature difference in future periods to 1980-1999
Emission scenarios
850 ppm 720ppm 550 ppm
2011-2030
2046-2065
B1
A1B
A2
Quelle: IPCC AR4 2007
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
2080-2099
Challenges
The challenges
Quantifying and monitoring future climate change
Mitigating climate change
Adapting to climate change
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Climate research at KIT
The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology strengthens its
efforts in the field of climate change research by
pursuing its leadership role and numerous research
projects in the Helmholtz Programme
„Atmosphere and Climate“ (with FZJ, GFZ)
combining Earth and engineering sciences in the
KIT-Center Climate and Environment
focussing on climate and geological risks in the
Center of Desaster Management and Risk Reduction
Technology (CEDIM, with GFZ)
transferring scientific results to politicians, industry, and
the media via the The Southern Germany Climate Office
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Topics
Topics
(with examples from current research at KIT)
1. Challenges of downscaling global climate change
scenarios to regional prediction
2. Technology for mitigation (KIT example of carbon
storage)
3. Technology for adaptation (KIT examples of adaptation to
mitigate flood and storm risks)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Global modelling and uncertainty
We (have to) rely on
modelled climate change
scenarios depending
• uncertain emission
rates and composition
change
• simulations of a very
complex physico-biochemical system
• models being only
validated for present
climate
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 Climate Model, Yukimoto et al., 2006
3D-temperature change 2070-2100 - present
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Global perspective
Temperature change
in °C, end vs.
beginning of 20th
century, IPCC TAR
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Regional perspective
Temperature and
precipitation change,
model consistency end
vs. beginning of 20th
century, IPCC AR4
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Global perspective
MMD-A1B Simulations
for Europe.
Regional perspective
year
winter
Differences (20802099) vs. (1980-1999),
21 model average.
temperature
precipitation
Numbers of
models giving
more precip
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
IPCC AR4, TS 20
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
summer
Global perspective
Regional perspective
National
perspective
State
perspective
Temperature change
in °C, end vs.
beginning of 20th
century, IPCC TAR
Temperature and
precipitation change,
model consistency end
vs. beginning of 20th
century, IPCC AR4
CEDIM Wind risk
map for Germany,
present climate
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
State of BadenWürttemberg:
Observed
precipitation change
1931 – 2000, future
precip, droughts,
floods
Downscaling global scenarios
The solution to get high resolution
climate estimates: Limited Area
Modelling with prescribed forcing
from global models
5000
4500
4000
Topo (m ASL)
3500
Above 1500.0
1250.0 - 1500.0
3000
1000.0 - 1250.0
750.0 - 1000.0
600.0 - 750.0
500.0 - 600.0
2500
900
400.0 - 500.0
300.0 - 400.0
2000
250.0 - 300.0
200.0 - 250.0
1500
150.0 - 200.0
100.0 - 150.0
50.0 - 100.0
20.0 - 50.0
1000
500
0
50
0
10
00
15
00
20
00
25
00
30
00
35
00
40
00
45
00
50
00
55
00
0
West <-- (X in Km) --> Ost
50 km resolution
10.0 1.0 -
20.0
10.0
0.0 Below
1.0
0.0
800
700
TOPO (m ASL)
600
Above 1500.0
1250.0 - 1500.0
1000.0 - 1250.0
750.0 - 1000.0
600.0 - 750.0
500.0 - 600.0
400.0 - 500.0
300.0 - 400.0
250.0 - 300.0
200.0 - 250.0
500
400
300
150.0 - 200.0
100.0 - 150.0
50.0 - 100.0
20.0 - 50.0
10.0 - 20.0
1.0 - 10.0
0.0 1.0
Below
0.0
200
100
Global models:
0
0
80
0
70
0
60
0
50
0
40
0
30
0
20
7 km resolution
NCEP, ERA40, GME
ECHAM5, ECHO-G
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
10
0
0
Nested COSMO model system at KIT (IMK-TRO)
HLRS Stuttgart, NEC SX8, total (single) CPU time 2008: 2983
days, 55 Tbyte storage
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Climate modelling – a technology challenge
ENIAC, 1946
First useful
L. F. Richardson
weather
(1881-1953)
forecasts
The framework of
numerical prediction
HP XC4000, 2008
Brandes, 1820: Luftdruckkarten
Aktuelle Karte: Weltausstellung
Pierre Simon de Laplace, 1814
Societas Meteorologica Palatina 1780
27 t weight,
5000 additions or 357 multiplications
oder 38 divisionen per second
Aristoteles
SCC/KIT
384 v.Chr.–322
v.Chr.per
15.77 TFLOPS = 15770000000000
operations
Meteorologica „Die Lehre von den
seconds
Quelle:
Wikipedia
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Himmelserscheinungen“
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Technology: High performance computing
ECHAM5 / MPI-OM für IPCC AR4 mit
T63L31 (≈200km, 1.87°) Auflösung
18 Experimente
insgesamt 5000 Jahre Simulationszeit
80 CPU Stunden pro Simulationsjahr
Quelle: http://www.dkrz.de/pdf/tf/TerraFlops_6_10_MidREZ.pdf
CLM mit 50km (0.44°) Auflösung
CLM mit 7km (0.0625°) Auflösung
124 x 140 x 40 Gitterzellen, Δt = 40s (Leapfrog)
360 CPU Stunden pro Simulationsjahr
900
800
Sued <-- (Y in Km) --> Nord
118 x 110 x 40 Gitterzellen
Δt = 240s (Runge-Kutta)
100 CPU Stunden pro Simulationsjahr
700
600
500
400
300
200
Source: H.-J. Panitz, KIT
100
West <-- (X in Km) --> Ost
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
0
80
0
70
0
0
60
0
50
40
0
30
0
0
20
10
0
0
KIT approach to climate downscaling: ensembles
Zeit
1 Wo
initial state
1d
1h
globale Wellen
Kälte/Hitzeperioden
Tief/Hochdruckgebiete Winterstürme
Wolkencluster
Gewitterwolken
Cumulus
1 min
The mogul slope
tropische
Fronten
Zyklonen
Gewitterkomplexe
einzelne Gewitter
Sturmböen, Tornados
100 m
10 km
1000 km
Länge
Ensemble setup:
different global models
different global model realizations
deterministic predictions
-> limits weather forecasts to
about 14 days (deterministic chaos)
climate scenarios / prediction: possible
futures decades ahead
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
different SRES scenarios
different downscaling methods
different regional models
different resolution, physical process
paramerizations …
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
KIT approach to climate downscaling: ensembles
Ensemble structure
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
KIT approach to climate downscaling: ensembles
Present
Future
much higher information detail, probabilistic, more realistic
Probability map of a temperature
increase by more than 1 K
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
KIT approach to climate downscaling: ensembles
Ensemble agreement
Probability of
precipitation change
by more than 5 %
2011-2040 vs. 19712000
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
KIT approach to climate downscaling: ensembles
Number of dry days – summers 2011-2040/1971-2000 (CLM-CR Ensemble)
2011 – 2040 vs. 1971 – 2000
Scale +/- 5%
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
2071 – 2100 vs. 1971 – 2000
Scale +/- 50%
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Regional modelling results - validation
Mean annual cycle of precipitation 1971-2000
in Baden-Württemberg, monthly sums in mm
Regional
Global
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Regional modelling results - validation
Frequency distribution of daily precip in Baden-Württemberg
Contribution to total precip in %
25
Observation
CLM-CR
REMO-UBA
[%]
20
15
10
5
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
> 75 mm
50 - 75 mm
40 - 50 mm
30 - 40 mm
25 - 30 mm
20 - 25 mm
15 - 20 mm
10 - 15 mm
5 - 10 mm
2 - 5 mm
1 - 2 mm
< 1 mm
0
Regional modelling results – validation by measurements
COPS/TRACKS 2007
(KIT co-leadership)
• 7 radiosonde stations
• 9 aircraft, 1 airship
• 5 „Supersites“ with Radar, Lidar …
• mesonet stations for soil moisture, turbulent
fluxes, precipitation, GPS IWV, …
• >300 participants from 10 countries
Forsc hungszentrum K arls ruhe
in d er Helmh oltz-Geme inschaft
Andreas W ies er
Hornisgrinde 1160 m asl
Supersite H
L ogistical preparation
P hoto: Andreas B ehrendt
1
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
http://www.cops2007.de/
an dreas .wie ser@ imk.f zk.d e
Topics
Topics
(with examples from current research at KIT)
1. Challenges of downscaling global climate change
scenarios to regional prediction
2. Technology for mitigation (KIT example of carbon
storage)
3. Technology for adaptation (KIT examples of adaptation to
mitigate flood and storm risks)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Technology for mitigation - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Geological processes affecting subsurface storage of CO2
FOCO2S Projectt
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
IBF, IMG, SMG of KIT
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Technology for mitigation - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Capture CO2 from fossil
fuel (coal, gas, oil) and
biomass before or after
combustion
Compress CO2 into liquid
form and transport in
ordinary pipes
Store CO2 in a deep
geological structure in a
safe and controlled
manner
Monitor storage to ensure
storage behaves as
expected
Christensen (2008)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
IBF, IMG, SMG of KIT
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Technology for mitigation - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Current research
• Pathways for CO2capture and storage
(technologies,
infrastructure, time
scales)
• Life cycles balances of
all interacting
processes
• CCS efficiency for
mitigation compared to
other relevant options
CCS as a bridging technology towards renewable energy
systems
IBF, IMG, SMG of KIT
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Technology for mitigation - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Emissions and storage
Deutschland
CO2-emissions
of power plants
> 300 Mt/a
CO2-storage:
- empty gas
reservoirs
(2,5 Gt),
- deep aquifers
(12-28 Gt),
- deep coal
mines
(3,7-16,7 Gt)
Christensen (2008)
Global
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
CO2-emissions: 27,3 Gt/a
CO2-storage: 1.660 Gt
IBF, IMG, SMG of KIT
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Source: BMU (2007)
Technology for mitigation - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Installation of deformation
measuring devices
5
Stress-strain-curve of a multi-stage test
σ1 - σ3 [MN/m²]
4
3 Stepwise variation of deformation rate
σ3 = 2,0 MN/m²
2
σ3 = 1,0 MN/m²
1
σ3 = 0,5 MN/m²
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
ε1 [%]
First results: Pelitic cap rocks do not show scale
effects
Institut für Bodenmechanik und Felsmechanik
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Topics
Topics
(with examples from current research at KIT)
1. Challenges of downscaling global climate change
scenarios to regional prediction
2. Technology for mitigation (KIT example of carbon
storage)
3. Technology for adaptation (KIT examples of adaptation
to mitigate flood and storm risks)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Flood risk management
Flood precaution
Areal precautions
- adapted use
Building precautions
-adapted building
Water retention
- activating of retention room
Risk precaution
- insurances
Technical risk reduction
Operations
Early warning
-quantitative precipitation
forecast
Shelter buildings
- dikes, wallsDämme
- mobile shelters
Prediction
- runoff, water levels
Barrages,
Retention basins
River development
-Locally at certain locations
Alarm plans
- regional, supraregional
Operation schedule
- evacuations
- dike defense
Physical protection
IWG, IMK (KIT)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Flood risk management: chain of numerical models
weather precip prediction / global
28 km
hydrology / N-A-progress / (supra)regional
-EZGe
7 km
hydraulics, geotechnical/
local flood risk / local
Source: IWG, IMK (KIT)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Flood risk management: risk modelling
risk analysis
hydrological / hydrological modelling
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
vulnerability / cadastral data
object-related (mikroscale) resolution
source: IWG (KIT)
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Flood risk management: risk modelling
Klassifizierte Hochwasserschäden
Offenau HW 1993
Pilot study: Offenau
Calculated damage of residential buildings
left: individual damage for HW1993,
right: integrated damage HQT
Schuppen,
Scheune, Stall
20%
Sonstige 2%
Wohn-,
Geschäftshaus
74%
Betriebs-, Werkstatt-,
Wirtschaftsgebäude
4%
Berechnete HW-Schäden an Gebäuden
(Offenau/Neckar), normiert auf
Schadensumme bei HQ100 (P=0,01)
Schäden an
Wohngebäuden
[tsd. EUR]
5
normierter Schaden Si [-]
•2,E+07
0-5
5 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
> 20
4
•1,E+07
3
•1,E+07
2
•7,E+06
1
•4,E+06
0
0,1
•0,E+00
0,01
0,001
0,0001
Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeit Pi [1/a]
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
source: IWG (KIT)
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Flood risk: climate change
Effects of climate change on flood risk (Example Offenau/Neckar)
• Increase of potential flood damage due to high maximum water level
• Increase of flood risk due to modified flood statistics
HQTn , K = fT , K ⋅ HQTn
1,2
-30
0,8
-20
0,4
-10
0
0
3,6
-0,4
1,1
1,1
1,0
10
8,9
-0,8
-1,2
2,0
S K ( HQT ) = f SK ,T ⋅ S ( HQT )
25,3
HQ10
HQ20
20
30
Faktor Schadenserhöhung [-]
delta y [m]
Auswirkung der Klimaänderung auf Wasserstand und Schaden
(Neckar-KM 98,0 / Gemeinde Offenau)
300
HQ50 HQ100 HQ200 HQ500 HQ1000
source: IWG (KIT)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
20
* Klimaveränderung und Konsequenzen für die Wasserwirtschaft
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Climate change: low runoff and level periods
Niedrigwasser am Rhein 2003 bei Düsseldorf,
Wasserstand am Pegel Düsseldorf 51 cm,
Quelle: Jahresbericht 2003, Landesumweltamt NRW
source: IWG (KIT)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Topics
Topics
(with examples from current research at KIT)
1. Challenges of downscaling global climate change
scenarios to regional prediction
2. Technology for mitigation (KIT example of carbon
storage)
3. Technology for adaptation (KIT examples of adaptation
to mitigate flood and storm risks)
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Climate change: urban climate and ventilation
Spreading of pollutants
Ventilation in street canyons
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Transport of respirable dust
Natural particle sinks
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
source: IfH (KIT)
Climate change: pollutant dispersion
Spreading of pollutants
Protection against immissions
Particle transport phenomena
Deposition of particles and dust
Pollutant transport
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
source: IfH (KIT)
Climate change: wind loads on structures
Building aerodynamics
wind loads on solar modules
Wind loads on structures
wind-driven ventilation of buildings
wind comfort in cities
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
source: IfH (KIT)
©
B. Ruck
Climate change: wind damages in forests
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
source: IfH (KIT)
Climate change: storm resistant structures and forestry
Developing and testing
storm-resistant structures
by wind tunnel
experiments
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
source: IfH (KIT)
Climate change: increasing vulnerability
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Conclusions
Climate change and adaptation – why technology is highly needed
The global problem of climate change interferes with modern technology in many
aspects:
• The anthropogenic influence on climate mainly arises from extensive use of fossil
energy sources via technological systems (traffic, industrial production, …)
• The main research aspects of climate change need to build on modern
technology, namely the
¾prediction and monitoring (technologies: HPC, satellite and observation
networks) with a specific focus on regions and locations
¾technology for mitigating climate change like renewable energy, efficient
energy conversion, carbon storage …
¾technology for adapting to climate change, e.g. by enforcing technical
infrastructure and built environment as well natural environment to cope with
changes in extreme weather and runoff conditions
• KIT and partner organisations will adress such problems with particular
emphasis put on the interface of regional climate change and technology
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change
Thanks for your attention!
October 12, 2009
Ch. Kottmeier
Joint International Conference – Climate Change