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Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587016/ Mongolia Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Description: Ramping Up For The Boom Years The publisher retains their bullish outlook on Mongolia’s long-term prospects, with rising investment and surging exports set to underpin double digit growth over the next five years. The signing of the landmark Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement in 2009 will underpin investor confidence in the government’s probusiness credentials, which will support development of the mining sector. Mongolia’s favourable location next to China should ensure plentiful demand for its raw materials. The key risk remains inflation, with grain shortages in Russia pushing food prices higher. In addition, we remain wary of poor asset quality in the banking sector, but highlight underlying signs of stability and a reasonably strong pick-up in loan growth. The report highlights a highly favourable macroeconomic environment in Mongolia and hold to our forecast for 8.1% real GDP growth this year, which we expect to be driven by fixed investment in the mining and transport sectors. Indeed, the recent release of preliminary data for full-year 2010 growth by the Mongolian National Statistics Office indicate that mining and quarrying surpassed agriculture last year to become the biggest sector of the economy. While this was no doubt helped by the dire performance of agriculture following a terrible 2009/10 winter, we nevertheless contend that it is indicative of a broader trend, with mining activity set to be the main driver of economic expansion in the coming years. Robust deposit growth and improving asset quality will continue to underpin Mongolian banks’ ability and willingness to lend through 2011. Nevertheless, we note that a large amount of banks’ capital continues to be invested in central bank bills (which yield roughly the same as inflation), implying that banks remain concerned about over-exposure to the real economy. A new bank law being debated by the Mongolian parliament – providing, among other things, a stand-by recapitalisation facility – should help improve lenders’ confidence to extend credit over the medium term. The report holds the view that the development of Mongolia’s mining sector will result in an export boom over the coming years, driven in particular by copper and coal, and that this will see the current account flip into surplus in 2013. Moreover, we remain positive on the outlook for the financial account, with strong foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows expected as investors seek to take advantage of the country’s huge mineral deposits, attractive business environment, stable political system and enormous growth potential. The key risk to our outlook remains over-reliance on Chinese demand, which leaves Mongolia highly vulnerable to a slowdown in its larger neighbour. Contents: Executive Summary Ramping Up For The Boom Years Chapter 1: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Long-Term Political Outlook Transforming Minerals Into Wealth The Mongolian government will face major domestic challenges over the coming decade as the country’s mining boom takes off and it seeks to strike a balance between distributing the revenues in a way that is acceptable to the population while avoiding stoking inflation Table: Political Overview Chapter 2: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Bumper Year Ahead, But Risks To Watch We remain bullish on Mongolia’s medium-term growth prospects and highlight a generally supportive political culture and business environment that make Mongolia a solid bet for investors Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Balance Of Payments Coal And Copper To Drive Export Boom We hold to our core view that the development of Mongolia’s mining sector will result in an export boom over the coming years, driven in particular by copper and coal, and this will see the current account flip into surplus in 2013 Table: FISCAL POLICY Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT Exchange Rate Policy MNT : Further Gains In 2011 Having retreated from its post-financial crisis highs posted in December 2010 to trade at MNT 1,250/US $ at one point on February 14, the Mongolian togrog looks primed for further upside Table: EXCHANGE RATE Banking Sector Recovery Momentum To Continue Robust deposit growth and improving asset quality will continue to underpin Mongolian banks’ ability and willingness to lend through 2011 Regional Outlook Policy Implications Of Rising Inflation Rising inflationary pressures are creating policy dilemmas for emerging European central banks Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast The Mongolian Economy To 2020 Investments And Exports To Drive Growth Mongolia’s bounce back from the global financial crisis, in line with rising prices for key commodities, has been highly impressive and we expect the bumper rates of growth to continue through the long term Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 4: Business Environment SWOT Analysis BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings Business Environment Outlook Institutions Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Table: Labour Force Quality Infrastructure Market Orientation Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows Table: Trade And Investment Ratings Operational Risk Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions Global Outlook Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat Table: Global Assumptions TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS Ordering: Order Online - http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1587016/ Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. 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