Download NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as
a National Model
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
August 28, 2007
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
1
Overview
•
Transition Paradigm
•
Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP
•
Ongoing Strategic Priorities
•
Risks / Budget Issues
2
Schematics in the Model Transition Process
EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations
Observation
System
Effort
Other Agencies
&
International
Service
Centers
EMC
NOAA
Research
NCO
Field
Offices
EMC
ASI, COLA,
ARCS
R&D
Test Beds
JCSDA
CTB
DTC
JHT
OPS
Life cycle
Support
Operations
Service Centers
Delivery
Operations to Research
Transition from Research to Operations
Launch List – Model Implementation Process
Concept of Operations
Requirements
Criteria
Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability
User
Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process
1
R&D
Community
1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded
through AOs, Agency Labs…
2
NCEP
is uniquely
positioned
to provide an
operational
infrastructure for
the transition
processes
2. Smaller set of R&D products
suitable for operations.
R2O
O2R
N
C
E
P
R2O
3
EMC
CFS
C
T
B
OPERATIONS
4
O2A
User
Community
C
P
C
3. Systematic transition steps
Research-to-Operations (R2O).
Deliver skill-optimized forecast
products founded on CTB-based
innovation and& customer
feedback; Bring in customer
requests
4. Systematic transition steps
Operations-to-Applications (O2A).
5. Delivery of products to the diverse
community and customer
feedback
5
CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)
4
Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP
• Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004)
• Climate Test Bed: established in 2005, focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast
System and related seasonal forecast products
• Unprecedented increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks
(20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).
5
Ongoing Strategic Priorities
•
Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the O2R & R2O paradigm
•
Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise
•
Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process
•
Address budget issues
6
“Operations to Research (O2R)”
• Goal
– To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by providing CFS
to the broad research community
• Deliverables
– CFS, data, and support services (e.g. helpdesk facility) to user community
– Annual workshop on CFS
• Mechanism
– Managed operational program between NCEP, CPO, and CTB
• Benefits
– Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc)
– Maximizes opportunities for community participation
7
“Operations to Research (O2R)”
NCEP will provide
• Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis)
• Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services
• Points of contact for collaboration
• Support for CTB Seminar Series
CPO will provide
• Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services
• Grants Program (AOs)
CTB will provide
• Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O)
• Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB)
GAPS
• Computing support for dissemination of models and data
• Resources for competitive transition activities
8
CTB Seminar Series
•
•
Initial focus: "CFS as a prediction system and research tool".
•
Alternate venue between NCEP and COLA
•
NCEP Venue: Coordinate Seminars with CTB “Test and Evaluation Team”
meetings for broader discussion following the seminars
•
Gradually expand to include the broader climate community
Future Foci:
•
Change topic from year-to-year or as appropriate
–
Multi-Model Ensembles
–
Climate forecast product improvements
•
COLA has 7 speakers lined up for the NCEP venue
•
NCEP has 5 speakers lined up for the COLA venue and 1 for the NCEP
venue
•
9
The seminar series will commence in September. Speaker list is available.
Risks on MME System
•
Lack of a National Strategy on MME, including insufficient (US) computer
resources for generating hindcast data sets
•
Lack of a concept of operations
–
MOUs with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational
models and real time forecast data
•
NCAR and NASA have their own time lines for model development
•
CTB resource limitations
–
Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other organizations
–
Skill assessments
–
Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for
operations
10
Budget Issues
•
Can only make the transition activities work with full
CPO support for the CFS, the CTB and related
transition activities
O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, training
CFS next Reanalysis (1979-2007)
CFS next Retrospective Forecasts (1981-2007)
AO for selected topics
11
Appendix
12
R&D –vs – Transition ?
• Transition costs have been, and still are, under- resourced
• Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will
likely be competing with each other.
Now
R&D
Transition
Future
?
?
?
R&D
R&D
R&D
Transition
Transition
Transition
13
CTB Seminar Series
–
COLA Speakers at NCEP
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
1. Cristiana Stan - Estimation of the limit of predictability in stratosphere vs troposphere using CFS
2. Ben Kirtman - Multi-model ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS
3. Kathy Pegion - Potential predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability in the NCEP CFS
4. Bohua Huang - Evolution of CFS bias in the Atlantic basin using the CFS hindcasts
5. Renguang Wu - Surface latent heat flux and its relationship with SST in the NCEP
CFS simulations and retrospective forecasts
6. Zeng-Zhen Hu - CFS hindcast skill as related to the mean state
7. Julia Manganello - Heat and momentum flux-correction experiments with CFS
–
NCEP Speakers at COLA
–
–
–
–
–
1. Augustin Vintzileos - Subseasonal prediction with the NCEP CFS: Forecast skill and prediction
barriers for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations
2. Yan Xue - NCEP's GODAS and Ocean Monitoring Products
3. Wanqiu Wang – Sources of tropical SST bias in the operational CFS.
4. Lindsay Williams – NAMAP 2 and CFS Model Resolution
5. Soo-Hyun Yoo– Simulation of the global monsoon with CFS
–
NCEP Speakers at NCEP
–
1. Huug van den Dool - Verification of daily forecasts by the CFS (the 2004 version)
14
COLA Scientists Using CFS
There are currently 10 COLA scientists who are actively experimenting
with or diagnosing CFS:
•
•
•
7 on the CTB Joint Seminar Series
2 PhD students
1 summer intern
There are 2 other scientists and 1 other PhD student who are planning
to begin work with CFS before the end of this year.
Several other COLA scientists have examined the CFS hindcasts or
CMIP simulations in their work.
15
Climate Information: Responding to User Needs
CPC/CTB participants: Ed O’Lenic
Mel Gelman
“Future Climate Forecast Products from CPC”
New Environmental Forecast Products
Major
fisheries
regime
change likely
Major fires
Agricultural production
at 50%, blowing dust
A national workshop sponsored by the University of Maryland
in partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological
Society
Workshop Co-Chairmen:
James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director,
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006)
Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,
University of Maryland
The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50
years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount
question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will
require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between
climate scientists and the consumers of climate information
The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a twoday workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, 2007.
Health warning:
Limit outdoor
activities; expect
brownouts
Air quality alerts
Swimming and Fishing
– 75% of days
restrictions
Frequent drought
and Asian dust
threats continue
Expect fisheries
downturn;
Tropical bacteria alerts
health threats
Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and
unhealthy
16