Download Hafiz A. Pasha By

By
Hafiz A. Pasha

WHAT IS THE EXTENT OF SOUTH ASIA’S PROGRESS ON THE MDGs?

WHAT FACTORS HAVE DETERMINED THE RATE OF PROGRESS?

WHAT HAS BEEN THE EXTENT OF INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA?

WHAT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA BEYOND THE MDGs?
Number of Countries with Data
Number of Countries on Target
%
MDG 1: Extreme Poverty
5
1a
20
MDG 1: Hunger
4
1
25
MDG 2a: Primary 6
3
50
MDG 3a: Gender Parity (Primary)
8
6
75
MDG 3a: Gender Parity (Secondary)
8
6
75
MDG 4a: Child Mortality (under 5)
8
3
38
MDG 5a: Maternal Mortality
8
3
38
MDG 7c: Access to Safe Water
7
4
57
MDG 7c: Access to Sanitation
7
2
29
Source: Global Monitoring Reports, 2011, World Bank
* The countries are Afghanistan (LIC), Bangladesh (LIC), Bhutan (LMC), India (LMC), Nepal (LIC), Pakistan (LMC), Sri Lanka (LMC).
(%)
Global
1990
2005
2008
Distance covered to Achieving Target
41.7
25.2
N.A
79
54.7
16.8
14.3
148
(60.2)
(15.9)
13.1
156
51.7
40.3
36.0
61
(51.3)
(41.6)
32.7a
73
57.6
50.9
N.A
23
11.3
8.2
6.5
85
of which:
East Asia and Pacific
(China)
South Asia
(India)
Sub‐Saharan Africa
Latin America
afor 2010
Source: World Bank, Global Monitoring Report, 2011.

ALTHOUGH RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE REGION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY HIGH

BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PROCESS OF GROWTH HAS NOT BEEN INCLUSIVE ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF BENEFITING THE LOWER INCOME GROUPS

ALSO, THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT HAS GENERALLY NOT BEEN SUPPORTIVE FOR ATTAINING THE MDGs
South Asia
(India)
East Asia and the Pacific
Low and Middle Income Countries
2000 to 2005
2005 to 2010
2011
6.5
7.9
6.5
(7.0)
(8.6)
(6.9)
8.4
9.8
8.3
5.4
6.6
6.4
Source: World Development Indicators (WDI), World Bank

INEQUALITY HAS INCREASED AMONG COUNTRIES

INEQUALITY HAS INCREASED WITHIN COUNTRIES

14LDCs: AFGHANISTAN, BANGLADESH, BHUTAN, CAMBODIA, KIRIBATI, LAO PDR, MALDIVES, MYANMAR, SAMOA, SOLOMON, ISLANDS, TIMOR LESTE, TUVALU,
VANAUTU

4 LDCs ARE LANDLOCKED AND 6 ARE SMALL ISLAND STATES

5 LDCs ARE IN SOUTH ASIA, 4 IN EAST ASIA AND 5 IN THE PACIFIC

POPULATION OF 258 MILLION; 37% OF GLOBAL POPULATION OF LDCs.

AVERAGE PER CAPITA INCOME IS $ 513

4 LDCs ARE CLASSIFIED AS SEVERELY INDEBTED

GDP GROWTH RATE IS HALF THE REGIONAL AVERAGE

ODA PER CAPITA IS 1/3rd OF SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA
PERCENTAGE OF COUNTRIES* OFF‐TRACK
LDCs
All Counties
(excluding LDCs)
100
26
Malnutrition
50
43
Infant Mortality
86
47
$ 1 Poverty
*Includes Central Asia Republics. All countries of Asia Pacific for which data is available
Source: UNESCAP
DIVERGENCE OF GROWTH
Source: World Bank
Countrya
Earliest Year
Gini
Latest Year
Gini
Bangladesh
1996
41.2
2010
(32.1)*
India
1990
29.6
2005
33.4*
Nepal
1996
38.4
2010
32.8*
Pakistan
1990
28.7
2008
30.0*
Sri Lanka
1991
34.0
2007
40.3
*According to WDI.
• Inequality has also increased in most countries of East Asia and the Pacific, specially China
Source: WIDER, UN, Inequality Data Base.
1990-1999 1999-2004
South Asia
Low and Middle Income Countries
Source: Pasha (2007), derived
-0.60
-0.59
-1.18
2004-2008
-0.47
1)
RELATIVE POOR PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURE, ESPECIALLY FOOD PRODUCTION
2)
LOW EMPLOYMENT RESPONSE TO OUTPUT GROWTH
3)
LOW AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN LEVELS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
4)
SPURT OF INFLATION, ESPECIALLY IN FOOD PRICES, DURING LAST FEW YEARS
2000 to 2005
2005 to 2010
2011
2.6
3.2
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.8
7.3
7.9
3.7
6.2
7.4
6.9
7.9
9.1
8.3
5.5
7.1
6.6
AGRICULTURE
South Asia
Low and Middle Income Countries
INDUSTRY
South Asia
Low and Middle Income Countries
SERVICES
South Asia
Low and Middle Income Countries
Source: WDI

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF FOOD PRODUCTION
2000 to 2005:
2005 to 2010:

1.9%
2.6%
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN PRODUCTION OF CEREALS
1998 to 2008
Rice:
Wheat:
Cereals:
1.7%
1.2%
1.8%
SOUTH ASIA NOW HAS A NET DEFICIT IN TRADE IN FOOD ITEMS
IMPORTS OF WHEAT HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF OVER 10 MILLION TONS
 THE PROPORTION OF UNDERNOURISHED IN POPULATION HAS DECREASED MODESTLY FROM 21.5% IN 2000 TO 17.8% IN 2011


Source: WDI, World Bank
FAO
Annual Rate of Growth
South Asia
(Employment Elasticity)
2000 to 2005
2005 to 2009
2010
2.1
2.2
0.0
(0.32)
(0.29)
(0.0)
1.8
1.6
1.5
(0.34)
(0.25)
0.23
Low and Middle Income Countries
(Employment Elasticity)
• BETWEEN 2005 AND 2010, THE SHARE OF AGRICULTURE IN EMPLOYMENT HAS FALLEN FROM 54% TO 51%, WHILE THAT OF INDUSTRY HAS INCREASED FROM 19% TO 22% AND THAT OF SERVICES HAS FALLEN FROM 28% TO 26%.
Source: WDI






5 SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THE LOWEST QUINTILE OF COUNTRIES IN THE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX AND 3 IN THE SECOND LOWEST QUINTILE MOST SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY IN HDI RANKINGS IN 2011
RANKINGS IN GNI PER CAPITA ARE GENERALLY HIGHER
OVERALL, SOUTH ASIA’S HDI RANKING IS THE LOWEST AMONG REGIONS OF THE WORLD, EXCEPT SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA
RATE OF INCREASE IN HDI VERY SLOW IN RECENT YEARS
WHILE MOST SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES HAVE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION OF 3.5 TO 4% OF GDP, EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH VERY LOW AT
ABOUT 1% OF GDP
Source: Global Human Development Report, UNDP.

SPURT IN INFLATION
 DOUBLE‐DIGIT INFLATION LAST FOUR YEARS, ESPECIALLY IN FOOD PRICES, IN MOST SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES
 MORE ADVERSE IMPACT ON LOWER INCOME GROUPS

THE TRADE IMBALANCE HAS BEEN ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY THE ALMOST SEVEN FOLD INCREASE IN THE OIL IMPORT BILL DURING THE LAST DECADE

FISCAL DEFICITS HAVE BEEN RISING, EXCEEDING 8% OF THE GDP IN SOME COUNTRIES. LIMITED FISCAL SPACE FOR EXPANSION OF SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS
Sources: IMF, WTO, ADB, World Bank
POLICIES AND PROGRAMS SHOULD INFLUENCE THE PROCESS OF GROWTH SUCH THAT
(i). GROWTH TAKES PLACE IN SECTORS IN WHICH THE POOR WORK
(ii). GROWTH SHOULD OCCUR IN BACKWARD AREAS WHERE THE POOR LIVE
(iii). GROWTH SHOULD USE THE FACTORS OF PRODUCTION THAT THE POOR POSSESS AND ENHANCE THEIR CAPABILITIES
(iv). GROWTH MUST KEEP PRICES OF GOODS AND SERVICES CONSUMED BY THE POOR, LIKE FOOD, RELATIVELY LOW
SHARP RISE IN GLOBAL OIL AND FOOD PRICES
FLUCTUATIONS IN GROWTH OF THE WORLD ECONOMY HAVE AFFECTED REGION’S EXPORTS (FOR EXAMPLE, IN 2009)
 FOLLOWING WITHDRAWAL OF TEXTILE QUOTAS, SHARE IN GLOBAL EXPORTS OF SOUTH ASIA HAS INCREASED BY ONLY 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS
 ODA IS BELOW 1% OF GNI OF SOUTH ASIA, 60% fall in 2012
 PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS TO REGION ONLY 10% OF GLOBAL TOTAL, 63% fall in 2012
 VOLATILITY IN SHORT‐TERM PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS
 HOME REMITTANCES HAVE FLATTENED OUT RECENTLY
OVERALL, DISAPPOINTMENT ABOUT THE EXTENT OF COMMITMENT OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO MDG 8 ON GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ONLY 5 COUNTRIES HAVE MET ODA TARGET OF 0.7% OF GNI. GLOBAL SHORTFALL CUMULATIVELY IN RELATION TO TARGET OF $ 1.5 TRILLION SINCE 2000.


Source: OECD‐DAC, IMF, WTO, Country Economic Surveys

EMBODIMENT OF THE PRINCIPLES OF THE UN CHARTER IN A CONCRETE PROGRAM

PROVIDED FRAMEWORK FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

PROMOTED INVOLVEMENT ALSO OF CSOs AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR

COMPELLED GOVERNMENTS TO INVESTING IN THE PEOPLE AND INCREASED ACCOUNTABILITY OF PERFORMACE

ENABLED FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES/RESULTS RATHER THAN ON EXPENDITURE/INPUTS

FEWER TARGETS*, WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON ELIMINATION OF POVERTY AND HUNGER NEED FOR EXPLICIT FOCUS ON REDUCTION IN INEQUALITY
IDENTIFICATION OF EMERGING RISKS DUE TO:


~ GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
~ HIGH OIL AND FOOD PRICES
~ GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE




UNDERSCORING DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE
SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON LDCs, CONFLICT‐AFFECTED AND FRAGILE COUNTRIES
STRONGER FOCUS ON HEALTH‐RELATED INTERVENTIONS
RECOGNITION OF NEED FOR INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY ENERGY AND WATER
* CURRENTLY 48 TARGETS







‘LOCALISATION’: MORE OWNERSHIP BY NATIONAL STAKEHOLDERS
SETTING OF MORE REALISTIC TARGETS
‘LOOKING BEYOND AVERAGES’: IDENTIFICATION OF AND TARGETING SPECIAL GROUPS
PROMOTING SOUTH‐SOUTH COOPERATION: EMERGING DONORS, STRONGER LINKAGES OF REGIONAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT, STRENGTHENING OF REGIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
GREATER INVOLVEMENT OF LARGE INTERNATIONAL NGOs AND FOUNDATIONS
G‐20 SHOULD NOT BE SEEN AS A PROCESS OF EXCLUSION OF THE REST OF G‐77
CONVENE GLOBAL CONFERENCE ON ‘MDGs +10’ TO DISCUSS DEVELOPMENT GOALS UPTO 2025