Download Is decoupling of economic activity and  environmental pressure possible and good  economic policy?

Is decoupling of economic activity and environmental pressure possible and good economic policy?
Heinz Schandl
Video presentation at the ESCAP Workshop on Macroeconomic Modelling
9 December 2015, UNCC, Bangkok, Thailand
Decoupling hypothesis
• it is possible for economic growth to continue while reducing natural resource use and environmental impacts in relative or absolute terms; • in the short term there are many cost‐effective opportunities for greater resource efficiency that will offset wholly or partially any costs incurred in this decoupling;
• in the medium to long term decoupling will generate higher economic growth than would occur on current trends of inefficient resource use, environmental destruction and climate change.
Social (industrial) metabolism
Embodied Resource Use
whole life‐cycle approach
Materials, t
Products and Services, $
Energy, J
Water, m3
Waste, t
Land, ha
Emissions, t
Stock Accumulation
Buildings, infrastructure, industrial and domestic capital
SH(BM1
Global extraction of primary materials, 1970 ‐ 2015
3.8%
2.8%
2.0%
2.1%
Source: UNEP 2016, Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity Assessment Study
Slide 4
SH(BM1
Schandl, Heinz (L&W, Black Mountain), 09/12/2015
Material footprint and human development
Material footprint per capita, by HDI level
30.0
25.0
tonnes
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1990
1995
Low HDI
Very High HDI
2000
Medium HDI
World
2005
2010
High HDI
Source: UNEP 2016, Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity Assessment Study
Labour and natural resource productivity (materials and energy)
6.51 US$/h
0.10 US$/MJ
0.75 US$/kg
GDP at 2005 constant prices
Source: UNEP 2016, Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity Assessment Study
Global agreement
The G7 Leader’s Declaration, June 2015, Germany
Decarbonisation of the global energy system
Resource Efficiency Initiative
First forum of ministers and environment authorities of Asia Pacific in Bangkok, May 2015
climate change and disasters; air, water and soil pollution food, water, and energy security; resource efficiency; increase scientific knowledge and evidence base Sustainable Development Goals
8.4 Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation 12.2 By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources
3 Scenarios for growth, climate abatement and resource Three main Scenario settings
efficiency
scenarios
Base Case
No carbon price
No investment in resource efficiency above business as usual
Step Change in resource efficiency
25$ global carbon price (price induced change)
Investment in resource efficiency to achieve technical potential in major sectors (non‐price induced change)
Step Change in resource efficiency plus change in consumer behaviour 50$ carbon price
Investment in resource efficiency and sustainable consumption
Systems Innovation
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2015
Three coupled models
Three models (coupled)
Technology based physical stocks and flows model (MEFISTO)
CSIRO Land and Water
Integrated Global Economy –
Climate Model (GIAM)
CSIRO Climate and Atmospheric sciences
Global, multi‐regional input‐
output model (EORA)
University of Sydney
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2015
Model interactions
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2015
Global total primary energy supply (TPES), 1990 to 2050
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2015
Global carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), 1990 to 2050
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2015
Global material extraction (DE), 1990 to 2050
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2054
A very small impact on economic growth
• Global inflation adjusted GDP, according to our modelling, is expected to grow strongly over the next four decades from 58 trillion US$ in 2010 to about 190 trillion US$ (at 2007 prices) in 2050.
• Strong abatement policies and high investment in resource efficiency technologies would see global wealth grow by US$3 trillion less, equivalent to a loss of 1.6% of global output over 40 years.
• Cost of climate impacts and resource limits are not accounted for.
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2015
Decarbonisation and
dematerialization with
economic growth
Source: Schandl , Hatfield‐Dodds et al. 2015
Human development and natural resource use
Human development and natural resource use
1990: 30 tonnes per capita
needed for high HDI
2010: 15 tonnes per capita
needed for high HDI
Thank you
Heinz Schandl
Senior science leader
[email protected]
Adjunct Professor at the Graduate School of Environmental Studies, University of Nagoya, Japan
Adjunct Associate Professor, School of Sociology, Australian National University
Member of the UNEP International Resource Panel
Chair of the 2016 Gordon Research Conference Industrial Ecology
LAND AND WATER