Download Climate Change and Crop production in ASEAN+3

Climate change and crop production
in ASEAN+3
Wei Xiong
IEDA CAAS
Email: [email protected]
中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) /Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
Overview
• Background
• Agricultural challenges
• Impact of future climate change on crop
production
• Summary
Background
•
The effects of climate change have
happened in the regions.
– T increase, e.g. increased by 0.5-1.1 oC during
1901-2005 in SEA, 1.2 oC during 1961-2006
in China.
– P patterns are changing regionally, with
increases in some locations, and decrease in
others.
– Sea level is rising
•
Projections indicate climate change will
continue to occur
– Approximately 1 oC through 2030.
– P projections with uncertainties, but will has
larger increases in inter-annual and interseasonal variations
– The changes in monsoons and ENSO patterns
would significantly affect agricultural
prodution.
East and Southeast Asia are at risk from the impacts of climate change in the next 20 years
due to the region’s large and growing population, long coastlines, abundant low-lying
areas, reliance on the agricultural sector, and dependence upon natural resources.
Agricultural challenges in ASEAN+3
• Higher year-to-year variability. The region’s
monsoonal climate generates highly variable weather
conditions including severe storms and extreme
droughts and flooding.
• Unsustainable agricultural practices. The productivity
of the region’s arable land is threatened by
unsustainable agriculture practices, erosion caused by
loss of forest cover, industrial pollution, and pesticides.
• Limited infrastructure in the less developed countries
and regions, particularly Laos and Cambodia, hampers
the movement of agricultural goods beyond local
markets.
• These factors combine to render the agricultural
populations most vulnerable in the countries that also
have the least capacity to cope with climatic
challenges.
Snow storm in south China (2008)
Share of rice production (2001－2009) in ASEAN + 3 counties
Monoculture—
growing of a
single crop—is
prevalent in the
region,
particularly in SE
Brunei
Darussalam,
902.2222222
Cambodia,
5615729.111
Viet Nam,
35835444.44
Republic of Korea,
6581108.375
Singapore, 0
Thailand,
29255876.44
Philippines,
14830456.33
Malaysia,
2283594
Myanmar,
26522033.75
Lao People's
Democratic
Republic,
2629887.778
Japan, 10848250
Indonesia,
55398888.44
China,
182423773.4
Yield variation across ASEAN + 3 counties
Rice Yield
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Projected impacts of climate change on
crop production
Few related studies focused on the region
• Statistic methods
• Physical models
Probabilistic projections of production impacts in 2030 from climate change
(expressed as a percentage of 1998 to 2002 average yields). (Lobell et al., 2008,
Science)
Based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20
general circulation models. Results indicate southeast Asia may suffer negative
impacts on several crops if without appropriate adaptation measures.
Climate induced percentage change in production
in 2050: Irrigated Rice
ADB DMC
production = -16.2%
Climate induced percentage change in production
in 2050: Rainfed Rice
ADB DMC
production = -12.6%
Impact on Asian Rice Production
Page 11
Climate induced percentage change in production
in 2050: Irrigated Maize
ADB DMC
production = -8.5%
Asia similar to global impact
Climate induced percentage change in production
in 2050: Rainfed Maize
ADB DMC
production = -17.4%
Climate induced percentage change in production
in 2050: Irrigated Wheat
ADB DMC
production = -21.1%
Climate induced percentage change in production
in 2050: Rainfed Wheat
ADB DMC
production = +16.4%
Impact on Asian Wheat Production
Page 16
US $ / mt
Impact on International Food Prices
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Rice
2000
Wheat
2000
Maize
2050
2050 No Climate Change
O. Grains Soybeans
2050
2050 Climate Change
Price increase from 10% (soybean) to 52% (Maize)
Page 17
Impact on Total Cereal Demand
Page 18
Impact on Net Cereal Trade
Price increases from 9% (soybean) to 54% (O grains)
China - increased net exports; India - larger net imports
Page 19
Studies of China and its implications
由于气候变化，4度左右的增温时，增加的单季稻面积最大可达50万公顷，双季稻可
达620万公顷 (Xiong et al., climate research)
The rice cultivation area increases due to climate change, 0.5/6.20 Mha (single rice
cropping/double rice cropping) (Xiong et al., climate research)
The suitable area for rice plantation will move north due to the climate change,
this moving has happened in last two decade, particularly in Heilongjiang, a
north most province in China.
气候变化、社会经济发展而引起的农业水供需的变化(熊伟，等 AEE)
But water will become a significant
stress factor for agricultural
production. Irrigated area and
paddy rice area have to be reduced
if without effective water saving
practices.
IPCC SRES development Pathways (A2 and B2)
Climate Change scenarios (A2
andB2)
Effects of CO2
T, P, R (50km×50km)
No, A2, B2
CERES models
(rice, wheat and maize)
VIC
Hydrological
model
Water
resources
Impacts on crop yield and irrigation
demand
Socio-economic Scenarios (A2 and B2)
GDP, pop., water demand, land use (Provincial
Level)
Arable land
in Future
Water for agriculture
Land use change
policies
Water allocation
policies
Improvements in
Agric. Tech.
Adapt
ation
respo
nses
A simulation framework: interactions of
climate change, water availability, and
socio-economic development on China’s
food production (Xiong et al., 2009).
Vulnerability of China’s food production in future
Percentage changes in irrigated paddy rice due to decreases in future agricultural water
availability.
Lack of Money
100%
Limited availability of labour
50%
Poor infrastructure
Climate change might deteriorate rural people’s
livelihood in some regions, due to the changes of
natural endorsement on which the rural people
depend.
0%
Lack of farming inputs
Lack of technology
Water shortage
Northern irrigation area
Middle arid area
Southern rainfed mountainous area
The factors influencing farmer’s adaptation activitities
Climate change and the poor(2009）
http://www.greenpeace.org/china/zh/press/reports/povertyreport2009
Adaptation measures - Drought
Plastic film
Plastic film+ Gravel
Adaptation measures - Drought
Water cellar
Rain water harvest
Adaptation measures - Drought
Terrace
Water saving measures
Hole irrigation
furrow irrigation
Conservation tillage
Anti-leakage ditch
Adaptation measures
Government and scientific
community
Water diversion
Drought resistance variety
Weather modification
Adaptation measures
Highlights
• Climate change will increase production potential
in north areas, decrease in south.
• Increased instability of agricultural production,
particularly for rice production.
• Diversify crops and practices can adapt to the
climate change, and increase grain quantity.
• Larger uncertainties existed in the continental or
national analysis, impacts are more local specific,
cooperation is need to deal with the challenges.
THANKS